Examining trends for each team can help you make better-informed gambling and fantasy decisions. It’s never wise to bet a game based on a single trend and it’s also never wise to back off a wager based on a single trend, either. With that said, trends can point you in the right direction by corroborating stats and information you’ve gathered or they can make you reconsider making a bad wager based on flimsy data. I’ve gone game-by-game and compiled the most relevant trends for each team heading into this week’s contests. I’ve included any bets or leans I have for each game at the end of each writeup. Good luck with your wagers!
Thursday Night Football
Cincinnati Bengals (0-1, 0-1 ATS) at Cleveland Browns (0-1, 0-1), 8:20 p.m.
Implied Team Totals: Bengals 18.75, Browns 24.75
Spread/Total Movements: 44.5 to 43.5
Weather: 65 degrees, clear, 10 mph
Bengals Injuries to Watch: DT Geno Atkins (shoulder, out), DT Mike Daniels (groin, out), S Shawn Williams (calf, out),
Browns Injuries to Watch: WR Jarvis Landry (hip), LT Jedrick Wills (shin), RT Jack Conklin (ankle/finger), DE Olivier Vernon (ab), CB Greedy Williams (shoulder, out), LB Mack Wilson (knee, out), CB Kevin Johnson (liver, out)
The Bengals are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings with the Browns in this series, which includes a 5-1 ATS run in Cleveland.
The Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last five games
Cincinnati’s rookie QB Joe Burrow went down the field in the final minute of his first professional game and he put the ball in the end zone for the game-winning score against the Chargers last week…but the touchdown was taken off the board by an offensive P.I. by A.J. Green.
Burrow posted 8/46/1 rushing in his first game to cover up an ugly passing day as he averaged just 5.4 YPA with an INT and no TD passes.
Green led the Bengals in targets (9) and air yards share (45%) in Burrow’s first game despite being third in WR routes (30) on the team. He played on 66% of the snaps last week and the Bengals are unlikely to overextend him on a short week.
Tyler Boyd led these WRs with 39 routes, but he turned them into just 4/33 receiving on five targets. Marquise Brown and Willie Snead combined for 5/123/1 receiving from the slot last week against the Browns.
C.J. Uzomah finished in the top-10 in TE routes (31) last week and he finished with 4/45 receiving on five targets. The Browns just allowed 5/58/2 receiving to Mark Andrews last week.
The Bengals ran a designed pass to Joe Mixon on the first play of the season but he saw just one pass the rest of the way. Mixon averaged 24.5/154.0/1.5 rushing per game and 2/27.0 receiving per game against the Browns last season.
The Browns will have up to 6,000 fans for their season opener.
These teams are 4-0-1 to the over in the last five meetings in this series.
Cleveland are on a four-game ATS losing streak.
The Browns are 3-0-1 in their last four games as a home favorite.
Cleveland is 4-1 to the over in its last five games as a favorite.
Baker Mayfield completed just 53.8% of his passes and he averaged 4.8 YPA against the Ravens last week. He’s completed 60.5% of his passes and he’s averaged 8.9 YPA in four career games against the Browns, and he’s thrown for 3+ TDs in three of those games.
It didn’t take long for Odell Beckham to cause a shitstorm in 2020 and trade talks are already swirling in Cleveland after one game. He saw 10 targets with an aDOT of 11.7 yards in Week 1, but he turned those looks into 3/22 receiving. OBJ saw 11 targets in two games against the Bengals last season, turning them into 5/120/1 receiving.
Jarvis Landry played 71% of the snaps in his first game back from hip surgery, and his hip issue as him on the injury report this week. He cleared 75+ yards in both of his matchups against the Bengals last week. Cincy allowed 4/37 receiving on eight targets to Keenan Allen last week.
The Browns placed David Njoku (knee) on the IR this week so the Browns are down to Austin Hooper and Harrison Bryant at tight end. Hooper posted just 2/15 receiving in his first game with the Browns on 28 routes. The Bengals allowed 5/73 receiving to Hunter Henry on eight targets last week.
Kareem Hunt edged out Nick Chubb in snaps (36 to 35), yards (81 to 66), and touches (17 to 11) in Week 1. Tackles Jack Conklin and Jedrick Wills are banged up this week, but the Browns will still be looking to attack a Bengals defense that’s likely to be without Geno Atkins again this week.
Cincinnati Bengals +6.5 (Staff Pick Leans)
Nick Chubb over 68.5 rushing (Best Bets)
C.J. Uzomah over 21.5 receiving yards (Best Bets)