Week 17 Sunday Trends and Picks

Examining trends for each team can help you make better-informed gambling and fantasy decisions. It’s never wise to bet a game based on a single trend and it’s also never wise to back off a wager based on a single trend, either. With that said, trends can point you in the right direction by corroborating stats and information you’ve gathered or they can make you reconsider making a bad wager based on flimsy data. I’ve gone game-by-game and compiled the most relevant trends for each team heading into this week’s contests. I’ve included any bets or leans I have for each game at the end of each writeup. Good luck with your wagers!

Week 17 Player Props

• Matt Ryan (Atl) over 23.5 completions (-112, DraftKings)

• Calvin Ridley (Atl) over 85.5 receiving yards (-115, William Hill)

• Jonathan Taylor (Ind) over 83. 5 rushing yards (-110, DraftKings)

• T.Y. Hilton (Ind) over 56.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)

• Darren Waller (LV) over 61.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)

• Derek Carr (LV) over 249.5 passing yards (+101, DraftKings)

• Jerry Jeudy (Den) over 39.5 receiving yards (-115, William Hill)

• Marquise Brown (Bal) over 40.5 receiving yards (-115, William Hill)

• DeAndre Hopkins (Ari) under 75.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)

• Nick Chubb (Cle) over 84.5 rushing and receiving yards (-110, William Hill)

• Chris Herndon (NYJ) over 15.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)

• Justin Jefferson (Min) over 75.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM)

• Matthew Stafford (Det) under 256.5 passing yards (-110, BetMGM)

• Corey Davis (Ten) over 56.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)

• Taysom Hill (NO) anytime touchdown (+138, William Hill)

• George Kittle (SF) over 51.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM)

• Zach Ertz (Phi) over 33.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)

Early Afternoon Games

Miami Dolphins (10-5, 11-4 ATS) at Buffalo Bills (12-3, 10-5), 1 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Dolphins 19.5, Bills 23

• Spread/Total Movements: 4.5 to 1 to 3.5, 47.5 to 42.5

• Weather: 36 degrees, 65% chance of rain, light winds

• Dolphins Injuries to Watch: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (COVID-19, out), WR DeVante Parker (hamstring), WR Jakeem Grant (hamstring)

• Bills Injuries to Watch: WR Cole Beasley (leg), WR John Brown (ankle), LG Jon Feliciano (illness)

Game Note

The Bills are candidates to pull their players early this week. They’ll wrap up the second seed with a win or a Steelers loss this week, and Pittsburgh has already signaled that Ben Roethlisberger and other key players will rest this week. The Steelers are 9.5-point underdogs against the Browns and the Bills could do some scoreboard watching and pull players early if it looks like the Steelers are going to lose this week. Sean McDermott played Josh Allen just seven snaps in Week 17 last season when they wrapped a Wild Card spot.

Dolphins Trends

• The Dolphins (11-4 ATS) and the Bills (10-5) are the only two teams with double-digit ATS covers this season.

• Miami has covered four straight games against AFC East opponents.

• Tua Tagovailoa will start again this week even after he got pulled for Ryan Fitzpatrick in the fourth quarter last week. Fitz led them back to the improbable victory, but the organization still cares more about the future than the present even with the Dolphins knocking on the door of the playoffs. Tua is averaging 5.8 YPA with three TDs and two INTs in his last three games.

• DeVante Parker nearly played against the Raiders last week after getting limited practices throughout last week so he appears to be on track for a return in Week 17 in a pivotal game for the Dolphins. Parker will return to a tough matchup with Tre’Davious White and the Bills, and he’ll also be stepping back into an uncertain quarterback situation. Parker hasn’t made an impact on a game since Week 12 when he posted 8/119 receiving, and he managed 5/53/1 against Bills in Week 2 with Fitz at the helm.

• Mike Gesicki returned from his shoulder injury last week, and he got going late with Fitz in the lineup as he finished with 4/54 receiving on seven targets. Noah Fant posted 8/68/1 receiving in this matchup two weeks ago, and the Bills are allowing 60.1 receiving yards per game to TEs (4th-most).

• OC Chan Gailey has preferred rolling with a primary back this season, but there was some question as to who the lead back would be in Week 16 with Gaskin and Salvon Ahmed actually active together. Gaskin emphatically answered that question with 14/87 rushing and 5/82/2 receiving for 33.9 FP against the Raiders in Week 16. He played on 78% of the snaps and he’s now seen 19+ touches in five straight games when he’s been on the field. Gaskin posted 13/82 scrimmage for 14.2 FP against the Bills in Week 2.

Bills Trends

• The Bills beat the Dolphins 31-28 as 5.5-point road favorites in Week 2 in a game totaled at 42.5 points.

• Buffalo has covered seven straight games after a four-game ATS losing streak in Weeks 5-8. They scored another five touchdowns in Week 16 while holding the Patriots to just nine points.

• These teams have played over the total in four straight games in this series.

• Josh Allen posted 31+ FP for the third time in four games last week as he had his fourth game with four TD passes. He also reached 300+ passing yards for the eighth time in 15 tries last week. He posted 415/5 passing for 34.5 FP against the Dolphins way back in Week 2.

• Stefon Diggs has posted 9+ catches and 90+ receiving yards in six of his last seven games after recording 9/145/3 receiving against the Patriots last week. He posted 8/153/1 receiving on 13 targets with Byron Jones playing just one series because of a groin injury.

• Cole Beasley will miss this week with a leg injury and the Bills aren’t going to push John Brown to return this week. Gabriel Davis ran the most routes of any Bills last week with 30, and he turned his five targets into 3/33 receiving. The Dolphins haven’t allowed a pair of WRs to reach double-digit FP in three straight games.

• Dawson Knox has been good for 7+ FP in four straight games with either four catches and/or a TD in each of those contests. The Dolphins have given up 11+ FP to TEs in three straight games but he’s not on the same planet as Darren Waller and Travis Kelce, who have each gone off the last two weeks.

• Zack Moss owned the slight advantage in touches (13 to 12), scrimmage yards (57 to 52), and TDs (1 to 0) over Devin Singletary last week. The Dolphins haven’t allowed a running back to score since Melvin Gordon scored twice on them in Week 11 while Clyde Edwards-Helaire is the only back to reach double-digit FP against them in the last four weeks.

Brolley’s Bets

Miami Dolphins +3.5/+140 (Best Bet)

Baltimore Ravens (10-5, 9-6 ATS) at Cincinnati Bengals (4-10-1, 9-6), 1 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Ravens 28, Bengals 15.5
• Spread/Total Movements: 11.5 to 12.5, 45 to 43.5
• Weather: 40 degrees, 20% chance of rain, 10 mph
• Ravens Injuries to Watch: RB Mark Ingram (illness), WR Willie Snead (ankle), DE Yannick Ngakoue (thigh), P Sam Koch (COVID-19)
• Bengals Injuries to Watch: WR Tyler Boyd (concussion), WR Tee Higgins (hamstring), CB William Jackson (concussion), LB Logan Wilson

Ravens Trends

• Baltimore beat Cincinnati 27-3 as 12.5-point home favorites back in Week 5 in a game totaled at 49 points.
• The Ravens have covered in five straight games with four consecutive outright victories in that span.
• Baltimore’s defense has given up fewer than 20 points in four of their last five games.
• Lamar Jackson has run 22+ FP in four straight games since he missed Week 12 with COVID-19. He has eight passing TDs and four rushing TDs in that span. He had his worst game of the season against the Bengals in Week 5 as he ran for just three yards and he averaged 4.9 YPA. He needs 92 rushing yards to become the first QB to have consecutive 1000-yard rushing seasons.
• Marquise Brown continued his run of strong play with his fifth straight game with 12+ FP, with four TDs in that span. Hollywood had his best game of the season against the Bengals in Week 5 as he posted 6/77/1 receiving even with Lamar having his worst game of the season.
• Mark Andrews has also posted 12+ FP in five straight games with 60+ receiving yards and 5+ catches in each of those games. He finished with 6/56/1 receiving against the Bengals in October and Cincy is giving up 64.0 receiving yards per game (2nd-most).
• The Ravens have taken Mark Ingram out of the mix recently, which has helped J.K. Dobbins to score in five straight games. He also has 70+ yards in each of those contests. Gus Edwards has totaled 24/127 rushing and 4/73 receiving for 25.0 FP in the last two weeks since Ingram has been a healthy scratch. The Bengals are giving up 114.8 rushing yards per game (5th-most) and 5.1 YPC to RBs.

Bengals Trends

• The Bengals, much like the Jets, have gone on an ill-fated two-game winning streak, which could cost them a chance to take Oregon OT Penei Sewell.
• The Bengals scored just 40 points in their first four games without Joe Burrow before their 64-point outburst in the last two weeks.
• Cincy is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games.
• Brandon Allen is coming off a career-best game with 371/2 passing with a 10.0 YPA average. He gets a major step up in class this week against the Ravens, who have held Daniel Jones and Gardner Minshew each to under 17 FP.
• Tee Higgins needs 92 yards to reach 1000 yards as a rookie after posting 6/99/1 receiving against the Texans last week. He posted 4/62 receiving on eight targets in this matchup in Week 5 with Joe Burrow still in the lineup.
• Tyler Boyd will look to return to the lineup off of his concussion in Week 15. He posted 4/42 receiving in this matchup earlier this season after recording just 9/72 in two games against Baltimore last season.
• A.J. Green stepped up with 4/64 receiving last week with Boyd out of the lineup last week. He failed to catch his lone target in this matchup earlier this season.
• Giovani Bernard has handled 49 touches in the last two weeks, which he’s turned into 228 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns. Samaje Perine also erupted for 17/136/2 scrimmage last week in their surprising 37-point outburst. Bernard posted 7/66 receiving last week and the Bengals could skew more pass-heavy this week as 11.5-point home underdogs — the Ravens are giving up 5.3/40.5/.3 receiving per game to RBs.

Brolley’s Bets

Baltimore Ravens -12.5 (Staff Pick Lean)

Marquise Brown (Bal) over 40.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Pittsburgh Steelers (12-3, 9-6 ATS) at Cleveland Browns (10-5, 6-9), 1 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Steelers 16.25, Browns 25.75
• Spread/Total Movements: 7 to 10 to 9.5, 43 to 42
• Weather: 39 degrees, 20% chance of rain, 5 mph
• Steelers Injuries to Watch: QB Ben Roethlisberger (rest, out), OLB T.J. Watt (rest, out), DL Cam Heyward (rest, out), C Maurkice Pouncey (rest, out)
• Browns Injuries to Watch: RG Wyatt Teller (calf), CB Denzel Ward (COVID-19)

Game Note

The Steelers will rest Ben Roethlisberger and some key players this week since they’re locked into the second or the third seed.

Steelers Trends

• The Steelers beat the Browns 38-7 as three-point home favorites back in Week 6 in a game totaled at 50 points.
• Pittsburgh snapped a four-game ATS losing streak last week against the Colts.
• The Steelers are locked into the second or the third seed in the AFC playoffs after their victory over the Colts in Week 16. Mike Tomlin announced Tuesday that Ben Roethlisberger will rest this week while other key players will rest or they’ll be on snap counts this week. Pittsburgh elected to rest some key players with minimal benefits to be gained this season between the second and third seeds (no bye week/no home-crowd advantage). The Steelers’ starters desperately need some rest since they haven’t had an uninterrupted period of rest this season since their “bye week” got moved up to Week 4 because of Tennessee’s COVID-19 outbreak.
• Mason Rudolph will draw the start this week, which is obviously a downgrade for this entire offense. Dolphins completed 23/44 passes for 221 yards, one TD, and four INTs against the Browns before Myles Garrett clubbed Rudolph over the head with his own helmet.
• James Washington and Ray-Ray McCloud are the best bets to see the most action at wide receiver for the Steelers this week.
• The Steelers could use this week as an opportunity to scout fourth-round pick Anthony McFarland as a feature back this week since Benny Snell has been playing more with James Conner constantly banged up.

Browns Trends

• The home team has covered the spread in five straight meetings in this series.
• Cleveland is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite.
• Before last week’s debacle without any of his top WRs, Baker Mayfield averaged 308.0 passing yards per game with 10 TDs and one INT in Weeks 12-15, and he was the QB5 in that span with a full cast of receivers with 25.5 FPG. The Browns should be back close to full strength this week against a Steelers’ defense which could rest some of their top players.
• Austin Hooper saw a massive 15 targets (28% share) from Mayfield last week with the Browns missing essentially their entire WR corps. He turned those looks into a slightly disappointing 7/71 receiving, but he still has 14+ FP in consecutive games after missing Week 14 with a neck injury. The Steelers are giving up just 8.7 FPG to TEs (2nd-fewest) this season, but Pittsburgh could rest some key players on defense, including a key player like S MInkah Fitzpatrick, to potentially open things up for Hooper.
• Before missing last week, Jarvis Landry had 6+ catches and 11+ FP in four straight games during Baker’s hot streak with three TDs in Weeks 12-15. Zach Pascal posted 3/64/1 receiving in this matchup last week
• Before missing last week, Rashard Higgins posted 4/76 receiving on five targets against the Giants in Week 15, which gave him 68+ yards and 11+ FP in three straight games in Weeks 13-15.
• With RG Wyatt Teller (calf) out the last two weeks, Nick Chubb has managed just 26/78 rushing but he has scored in each game to give him scores in five straight games. Jonathan Taylor posted 18/74/2 rushing against the Steelers last week.
• Kareem Hunt has posted 3+ catches in three straight games, but he’s failed to top 35 rushing yards in that same span. Nyheim Hines posted 5/20 receiving in this matchup last week and Giovani Bernard scored a receiving TD against the Steelers two weeks ago.

Brolley’s Bets

Pittsburgh Steelers +9.5 (Staff Pick Lean)

Nick Chubb (Cle) over 84.5 rushing and receiving yards (Best Bet)

Minnesota Vikings (6-9, 6-9 ATS) at Detroit Lions (5-10, 6-9), 1 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Vikings 30, Lions 23.5
• Spread/Total Movements: 54.5 to 53.5
• Weather: Dome
• Vikings Injuries to Watch: RB Dalvin Cook (personal, out), TE Kyle Rudolph (foot, out), LT Riley Reiff (COVID-19), LB Eric Kendricks (calf), K Dan Bailey (back), CB Cam Dantzler (CB, hamstring), DE Jalyn Holmes (groin), DE Ifeadi Odenigbo (chest)
• Lions Injuries to Watch: QB Matthew Stafford (everything), LB Jamie Collins (neck), C Frank Ragnow (throat), WR Kenny Golladay (hip)

Vikings Trends

• Minnesota beat Detroit 34-20 as three-point home favorites back in Week 9 in a game totaled at 51.5 points.
• The Vikings allowed 50+ points in a game for the first time since 1981 as the Vikings gave up 8.0 yards per play and 583 total yards in their 52-33 loss to the Saints.
• The Vikings haven’t covered a spread in six straight games.
• Kirk Cousins has been rolling in the second half of the season with 18+ FP in eight straight games. He’s coming off a 291/3 passing performance against the Saints on Christmas Day, and he gets a date with a Lions defense that just got eviscerated by Tom Brady for 348/4 passing last week…in one half.
• Justin Jefferson is looking to go out with a bang by breaking a couple of rookie records against this putrid Lions defense. He needs 47 receiving yards to top Randy Moss’s Vikings record of 1313 yards (1998) and Jefferson needs 111 yards to break Anquan Boldin’s rookie record of 1367 yards (2003) since the AFL-NFL merger. The Lions just gave up 300 receiving yards to Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Antonio Brown last week in less than 60 minutes of action.
• Adam Thielen scored his 14th touchdown of the season last week and he posted 8+ catches for the third time in his last five games. He’s still leading the league in end-zone targets (19), and he’s remarkably converted 68.4% of them into touchdowns (13). The Bucs big three scored four TDs last week, including two scores by Mike Evans.
• Irv Smith posted 6/53/2 receiving on nine targets against the Saints last week, which gives him three TDs in his last three games and he dropped an easy fourth TD in that span. He gets a glorious matchup against a terrible Lions team this week, who just gave up two TDs to Rob Gronkowski, and it looks like Kyle Rudolph (foot) could be a long shot to play again this week.
• Alexander Mattison will be the lead runner this week with Ameer Abdullah serving in passing-down situations after Dalvin Cook left the team to attend to a family matter. Mattison flopped with just 10/26 rushing in his last chance as the lead runner. The Lions are giving up 115.4 rushing yards per game (4th-most) and the second-most FPG (2nd-most) to RBs.

Lions Trends

• The Lions are 3-6 ATS in their last nine games after a 40-point drubbing by the Buccaneers in Week 16.
• Tampa Bay averaged 8.4 yards per play while Detroit could muster only 3.7 YPP after Matthew Stafford left the game early. Stafford has been battling rib and thumb injuries in recent weeks, and he added an ankle injury to the list last week. Chase Daniel and David Blough completed 19/28 passes for 135 yards and one INT in relief of Stafford last week. The Vikings haven’t allowed an individual QB to reach 16+ FP against them since Andy Dalton did it in Week 11.
• Marvin Jones (3/19 receiving) and T.J. Hockenson (4/23) had no chance to come through for fantasy owners with Daniel and Blough taking the reins of this offense after Stafford left the lineup up last week. Emmanuel Sanders posted 4/83 receiving while Jared Cook and Adam Trautman combined for 5/127 last week against the Vikings.
• D’Andre Swift has 4+ catches in four straight games but he’s failed to top 26 receiving yards in each of his last three games. He’s also reached double-digit carries while averaging 4.5+ YPC in four of his last five games. Alvin Kamara tied an NFL record with six rushing TDs against Minnesota’s injury-riddled front seven.

Brolley’s Bets

Minnesota Vikings -6.5 (Staff Pick Lean)

Justin Jefferson (Min) over 75.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Matthew Stafford (Det) under 256.5 passing yards (Best Bet)

New York Jets (2-13, 6-9 ATS) at New England Patriots (6-9, 6-9), 1 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Jets 18.5, Patriots 21.5
• Spread/Total Movements: 4.5 to 3, 43 to 40
• Weather: 38 degrees, 25% chance of rain, 5 mph
• Jets Injuries to Watch: RB Frank Gore (lung, out), RB La’Mical Perine (COVID-19, out)
• Patriots Injuries to Watch: RB Damien Harris (ankle), C David Andrews (calf), LB Terez Hall (ankle), RG Shaq Mason (calf)

Jets Trends

• The Jets went on quite possibly the worst two-game winning streak in NFL history as they cost themselves a chance at the next generational quarterback in Trevor Lawrence.
• New York is 5-2 ATS in their last seven games.
• The Jets have demonstrated just how terrible of a job Gregg Williams did before he got fired as they’ve allowed just 18.0 points per game and 301.0 yards per game in their victories the last two weeks.
• New York has played under the total in four of its last five games.
• Sam Darnold completed just half of his passes (16/32) last week for 175/2 passing, and he added 20 rushing yards against the Browns. Joe Flacco posted 262/3 passing and he averaged 10.5 YPA in this matchup against the Patriots in Week 9, which also came without Stephon Gilmore.
• Denzel Mims failed to catch either of his targets last week and he has just 5/58 receiving in his last three games. Breshad Perriman has had an even tougher go of it recently. He didn’t have a catch on six targets last week and he has just 5/69 receiving in his last four games.
• Jamison Crowder exploded for 7/92/1 receiving with a touchdown pass to Braxton Berrios last week. He has 5+ catches in three of his last four games, and he managed 2/26/1 receiving in this matchup back in Week 9.
• Chris Herndon is starting to show glimpses of his rookie form from 2018 after he scored his second TD of the season against the Browns in Week 16 on his way to 4/34/1 receiving on four targets. He’s now posted 7+ FP in consecutive games and he gets a matchup with a Patriots defense that just allowed 5/82/1 receiving to Lee Smith and Dawson Knox last week.
• Frank Gore (lung) and La’Mical Perine (COVID-19) will miss this week, which leaves this backfield in the hands of Ty Johnson and Josh Adams this week. Zack Moss and Devin Singletary combined for 22/95/1 rushing last week against the Patriots.

Patriots Trends

• The Patriots beat the Jets 30-27 as nine-point road favorites back in Week 9 in a game totaled at 42 points.
• New England has played under the total in seven straight games.
• Cam Newton is once again going to have a difficult time finding work next season after getting benched for the second time in three games last week. Newton and Jarrett Stidham combined for 9/21 passing for 78 yards and a putrid 3.8 YPA against the Bills. Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield combined to post 494/2 passing against the Jets in the last two weeks.
• Jakobi Meyers has 6+ targets and/or 4+ catches in five of his last six games, but he’s reached double-digit FP just twice in that span in this terrible passing attack. Meyers had by far his best game of the season against the Jets back in Week 9 with 12/169 receiving.
• Sony Michel has actually run well in the last two weeks with Damien Harris (ankle) out of the lineup as he has 20/143 rushing. He still hasn’t scored since Week 1 (seven games), and the Jets limited Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to 2.6 YPC last week but with two TD runs.
• James White hasn’t reached double-digit FP in four straight games, but he’s at least shown a pulse as a receiver in the last two weeks with 7/75 receiving.

Brolley’s Bets

New York Jets +3 (Staff Pick Lean)

Chris Herndon (NYJ) over 15.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Dallas Cowboys (6-9, 5-10 ATS) at New York Giants (5-10, 8-7), 1 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Cowboys 22.75, Giants 21.75
• Spread/Total Movements: 2.5 to 3 to 1, 46.5 to 44.5
• Weather: 42 degrees, 75% chance of rain, 10-15 mph
• Cowboys Injuries to Watch: LB Leighton Vander Esch (ankle), S Xavier Woods (ribs)
• Giants Injuries to Watch: TE Evan Engram (ankle), WR Golden Tate (calf), WR Sterling Shepard (rib), S Jabrill Peppers (ankle),

Cowboys Trends

• Dallas beat the Giants 37-34 as 7.5-point home favorites back in Week 5 in a game totaled at 52 points — it was Dak Prescott’s last game of the season.
• The Cowboys are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Giants.
• The Cowboys have had an absolute rollercoaster of a season but they’re back in position to steal a playoff spot with a win and a Washington loss.
• This week’s scenario seemed inconceivable after they dropped to 3-9 after an embarrassing loss to the Ravens on MNF in Week 13, but they’re riding a three-game winning streak with 30+ points scored in each of those contests.
• Andy Dalton completed 22/30 passes for 377 yards, three TDs, and one INT against the Eagles in Week 16, which gives him multiple TD passes in four straight games in the month of December. The Giants have given up 20+ FP to Baker Mayfield and Lamar Jackson in the last two weeks.
• Amari Cooper bounced back last week with 4/121 receiving, which gives him 15+ FP in three of his last four games. James Bradberry and company limited Coop to just 2/23 receiving on four targets against the Giants earlier this season.
• Michael Gallup is heating up over the last month with four touchdowns in his last four games after going for 6/121/2 receiving on eight targets against the Eagles in Week 16. Gallup posted 4/73 receiving in this matchup in Week 5, which mostly game on two deep balls after Dalton came into the contest.
• CeeDee Lamb ran for a touchdown last week and he added 3/65/1 receiving for his second consecutive game with 19+ FP. Lamb posted 8/124 receiving on 11 targets against the Giants earlier this season.
• Ezekiel Elliott looked fresh last week after resting with his calf injury in Week 15. He out-snapped (37 to 33), out-touched (23 to 10), and out-yardaged (139 to 20) Tony Pollard against the Eagles. The Giants are giving up 4.3 YPC and 47.5 receiving yards per game (2nd-most) to RBs this season.

Giants Trends

• The Giants still have a chance to back into the playoffs with a victory over the Cowboys and a loss by the Football Team in Week 17.
• The Giants have played under the total in seven straight games.
• They’ve failed to cover in three straight games and in four out of their last five games.
• Daniel Jones has run for just three yards while averaging just 6.1 YPA in his last two games because of hamstring and ankle injuries. Jones lost seven rushing yards and he had 222/0 passing in this matchup in Week 5.
• Sterling Shepard posted 9/77/1 receiving on 12 targets last week with Jones back in the lineup. Shepard has 6+ catches and 10+ FP in each of his last six full games with Jones in the lineup. Shepard didn’t play against the Cowboys earlier this season and Dallas is giving up 12.7 catches per game to WRs (12th-fewest).
• Darius Slayton has reached 35+ receiving yards just once since their Week 11 bye, but he did total 8/129 receiving against Dallas in Week 5
• Evan Engram picked up an ankle injury late last week but he’ll try to play in this must-win game. He topped 50+ receiving yards for just the second time in his last seven games last week with 7/65 on 10 targets. He caught just a 16-yard pass on two targets against the Cowboys in Week 5.
• Wayne Gallman hasn’t scored in four straight games after running off at least one touchdown in five straight games in Weeks 7-12. He’s fallen short of 11+ FP in three straight games, but the Cowboys are at least giving up 1.0 rushing TDs per game to RBs (5th-most).

Brolley’s Bets

Dallas Cowboys -1 (Best Bet)

Atlanta Falcons (4-11, 7-8 ATS) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-5, 8-7), 1 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Falcons 21.5, Buccaneers 28.5
• Spread/Total Movements: 5.5 to 7
• Weather: 65 degrees, clear, 10 mph
• Falcons Injuries to Watch: WR Julio Jones (hamstring), C Alex Mack (COVID-19, out), CB Darqueze Dennard (quad), LG James Carpenter (groin), WR Brandon Powell (foot), DE Charles Harris (personal)
• Buccaneers Injuries to Watch: CB Carlton Davis (groin)

Falcons Trends

• These teams have played over the total in five straight games.
• The Falcons have played under the total in five of their last six games.
• Younghoe Koo made 27 straight field-goal attempts before his miss to send last week’s game to overtime against the Chiefs.
• Matt Ryan has shown some life in the last two weeks with 300+ yards and multiple TDs. One of those performances came against this week’s opponent as he completed 34/49 passes for 356 yards and three TDs against the Bucs in Week 15.
• Calvin Ridley has posted 16+ FP in his six games without Julio Jones this season, including 110+ yards in five of those contests. Ridley erupted for 10/163/1 receiving for 32.3 FP against the Bucs in Week 15.
• Russell Gage had a three-game run with 15+ FP with Julio out of the lineup in Weeks 13-15. He came up small with 4/23 receiving on five targets against the Chiefs in Week 16. Gage is still averaging 7.8 targets per game over his last six contests, and he posted 5/68/1 receiving against the Bucs two weeks ago.
• Hayden Hurst has posted 4+ catches with a touchdown in consecutive games, with one of those performances coming against this week’s opponent. Hurst posted 4/21/1 receiving on five targets against the Buccaneers just two weeks ago, and Tampa had given up 12+ FP to individual TEs in three straight games before facing a miserable Lions offense last week.
• The Falcons continued with their three-man rotation in their backfield last week. Brian Hill led the way with 10/61 scrimmage on 19 snaps followed by Todd Gurley (7/50, 27) and Ito Smith (11/50, 22). Ito was the only Falcons RB to finish with positive rushing yardage (24) against the Buccaneers two weeks.

Buccaneers Trends

• The Buccaneers beat the Falcons 31-27 as six-point road favorites two weeks ago in a game totaled at 49.5 points.
• Tampa has covered in three of their last four games heading into Week 17.
• The Buccaneers had failed to score in the first quarter of four straight games, and they had been outscored 59-7 in the first quarter of their last six games before exploding against the Lions in Week 16.
• Tom Brady posted 179/2 passing in the first quarter against the Lions, and the Bucs averaged 8.4 yards per play in their 40-point rout of Detroit. Brady spread the love around in just one half of action last week as Evans/Godwin/Brown/Gronk each scored 13+ FP in their landslide victory. The Bucs get one of the easiest matchups in the league this week against a Falcons secondary that Brady lit up for 390/2 passing just two weeks ago.
• Mike Evans is 40 receiving yards away from his seventh consecutive season with 1000 yards to start his career, which would be an NFL record. He erupted for 10/181/2 receiving last week after posting 6/110 against the Falcons in Week 15.
• Chris Godwin has scored in consecutive games, including his 4/36/1 receiving line against the Falcons two weeks ago. Antonio Brown has also scored in consecutive games after failing to score in his first five games with the Buccaneers. He recorded 5/93/1 receiving against the Falcons in Week 15.
• Rob Gronkowski scored on both of his targets from a combined 58 yards away last week with one of his scoring strikes coming from backup Blaine Gabbert. Gronk managed just 3/29 receiving on seven targets against the Falcons two weeks ago.
• Ronald Jones is on track to play this week barring any setbacks to his surgically repaired finger, which he suffered in Week 14. Jones posted 15+ FP in three of his last four games before his two-game absence, but he’ll get a tough matchup against the Falcons in his return to the lineup. Leonard Fournette stumbled into the end zone twice against Atlanta in Week 15 with RoJo out but he averaged just 3.5 YPC. We’ll see if Fournette goes back to being a true handcuff to Jones this week with LeSean McCoy sticking in his passing-back role. Jones is 100 yards away from his first 1000-yard rushing season.

Brolley’s Bets

Atlanta Falcons +7 (Staff Pick Lean)

Matt Ryan (Atl) over 23.5 completions (Best Bet)

Calvin Ridley (Atl) over 85.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Late Afternoon Games

New Orleans Saints (11-4, 8-7 ATS) at Carolina Panthers (5-10, 9-6), 4:25 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Saints 27, Panthers 20.5
• Spread/Total Movements: 4.5 to 6.5, 50.5 to 47.5
• Weather: 50 degrees, clear, 5 mph
• Saints Injuries to Watch: S Marcus Williams (ankle), TE Josh Hill (hand)
• Panthers Injuries to Watch: RB Christian McCaffrey (out), RB Mike Davis (ankle, out), DE Brian Burns (shoulder), LT Russell Okung (calf)

Saints Trends

• New Orleans beat the Panthers 27-24 as seven-point home favorites back in Week 7 in a game totaled at 49.5 points.
• The Saints posted 583 total yards and they averaged 8.0 yards per play on their way to scoring 52 points against the Vikings on Christmas Day.
• The Saints are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games
• Alvin Kamara tied an NFL record with six rushing TDs against the Vikings. Kamara had the sixth-best fantasy performance for a RB since 1950 as he finished with 22/155/6 rushing and 3/17 receiving. The Saints are gunning for the top seed this week, and he’ll be an elite option once again against a Panthers defense that’s giving up the sixth-most FPG to RBs (25.5).
• The Saints scored seven rushing TDs last week, but Drew Brees put them in good positions to score all game long. Brees upped his completion percentage (44.1% to 73.1%) and his YPA (6.9 to 12.0) in his second game back from his rib injury, but he did throw two INTs that glanced off the hands of his receivers. He posted 287/2 passing in this matchup back in Week 7.
• Emmanuel Sanders has run off 11+ FP in three straight games despite seeing just five targets in each of those contests. He’s posted 75+ receiving yards with four catches in each of his first two games since Michael Thomas left the lineup again. Sanders missed this matchup in Week 7, but Smith/Callaway/Harris each had 4+ catches and 45+ yards in that matchup.
• Jared Cook posted a season-high 82 receiving yards last week and he snapped a seven-week drought of failing to reach 40+ receiving yards. He’s still seen more than five targets in a game just twice this season. Cook posted 3/32/1 receiving in this matchup back in late October.

Panthers Trends

• Carolina owns a 5-10 record but they have just two losses by more than two scores, which both came against the Buccaneers.
• The Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings with the Saints.
• These teams have played over the total in their last four meetings.
• Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last five games overall.
• Teddy Bridgewater has just two TD passes in his last four games, but he’s at least supplemented his passing with a little running with four rushing TDs in his last six games. Teddy had one of his best passing performances of the season against the Saints in Week 7 as he recorded 254/2 passing while averaging a season-best 9.1 YPA.
• D.J. Moore has seen 8+ targets in four straight games, but he turned his 10 looks into just 5/37 receiving last week against Washington. He erupted for 4/93/2 receiving against the Saints back in Week 7 after he posted 6/126/2 receiving in his only game against them last season.
• Curtis Samuel posted career-highs in both rushing yards (52) and receiving yards (106) last week against the Football Team. Samuel now has 16+ FP in six of his last nine games, including his two-touchdown performance against the Saints in Week 7.
• Robby Anderson turned 10 targets into just 7/39 receiving against the Football Team last week but he scored a touchdown to give him 16+ FP in three of his last four games. Robby recorded 6/74 receiving on eight targets in this matchup in late October.
• The Panthers are resting Mike Davis this week after he topped 1000+ scrimmage yards for the first time in his career. Rodney Smith has been his top backup and he’s seen 11 carries for 46 yards and five catches for 39 yards in the last two weeks. Trenton Cannon will also figure in behind him. The Saints are giving up the fewest FPG to RBs (18.4) this season.

Brolley’s Bets

New Orleans Saints -4.5 (Best Bet)

Taysom Hill (NO) anytime touchdown (Best Bet)

Green Bay Packers (12-3, 9-6 ATS) at Chicago Bears (8-7, 8-7), 4:25 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Packers 27.75, Bears 22.75
• Spread/Total Movements: 4.5 to 5, 50 to 50.5
• Weather: 31 degrees, clear, 5-10 mph
• Packers Injuries to Watch: LT David Bakhtiari (torn ACL, out)
• Bears Injuries to Watch: WR Allen Robinson (hamstring), CB Jaylon Johnson (shoulder), CB Buster Skrine (concussion)

Packers Trends

• Green Bay beat Chicago 41-25 as 7.5-point home favorites back in Week 12 in a game totaled at 44 points.
• The Packers snapped a two-game ATS losing streak with a dominant 26-point victory over the Titans by hitting 40+ points for the fourth time this season.
• Aaron Rodgers overtook Patrick Mahomes this week to become the new odds-on favorite to win the MVP at -200 thanks to his sixth game with four TD passes. He needs two TD passes to set a new career-high — he threw for 45 scores in 2011 — while the Bears have given up multiple TD passes to QBs in eight of their last nine games. Rodgers posted 211/4 passing in this matchup in Week 12.
• Davante Adams has been on the receiving end of 38.7% of Rodgers’ TD passes (17 of 44) after posting his third game with 40+ FP last week. He’s scored a ridiculous 15 TDs in his last 10 games, which includes his 6/61/1 receiving performance against the Bears in Week 12.
• Robert Tonyan’s five-game run with touchdowns came to a crashing halt last week as he caught one of his two targets for 17 yards against the Titans. He posted 5/67/1 receiving in this matchup back in Week 12, and the Bears are giving up .7 TDs per game to TEs (t3rd-most).
• Aaron Jones looked primed for a massive, league-winning week heading into a matchup with a shaky Titans defense in snowy conditions at Lambeau Field without Jamaal Williams (quad) in the lineup. Those plans went out the window after he took a hit to his hip early in the second quarter, which ended up limiting his snaps the rest of the game. Jones ended up with 12/108 scrimmage in Week 16 as he ceded 22 touches to rookie A.J. Dillon, who turned his opportunities into 129/2 scrimmage. Jones muscled out just 10.0 FP against the Bears in Week 12 with 17/90 rushing and one catch that didn’t go for any yardage.

Bears Trends

• The Bears are an offensive juggernaut with 30+ points in four straight games, and they’re averaging 35.0 points per game and 396.8 total yards per game in that span.
• Chicago is 4-1 toward overs in its last five games.
• David Montgomery’s current hot streak started against the Packers out of Chicago’s Week 11 bye. He has scored a TD with 110+ scrimmage yards for 20+ FP in five straight games after he posted 16/143/1 scrimmage against Green Bay in Week 12.
• Mitchell Trubisky is 6-2 in his eight starts this season and no one in the league has more on the line this week than Trubisky. He could rewrite the narrative surrounding his career with a victory over the NFC-leading Packers to get the Bears into the playoffs with a four-game winning streak to end the regular season. He’s scored 24 FP in two of his last three games against the Texans and the Jaguars, but he gets a step up in class this week against Green Bay’s defense. He posted a solid 242/3 passing with two INTs for 21.8 FP against them back in Week 12.
• Allen Robinson has double-digit FP in all but one of his games this season after posting 10/103 receiving in a revenge spot against the Jaguars last week. He’s posted 70+ receiving yards in eight of his last nine games. A-Rob is averaging 7.3/100.3/.7 receiving and 13.3 targets per game over three contests against the Packers in the last two seasons.
• Cole Kmet is a full-time player at the point, but Jimmy Graham is still one of their top end-zone weapons. Graham has scored on all three of his end-zone targets in the last three weeks while Kmet hasn’t seen an end-zone target in that span. The Packers gave up just their fifth TD to TEs with Jonnu Smith’s touchdown last week.

Brolley’s Bets

Chicago Bears +5 (Staff Pick Lean)

Las Vegas Raiders (7-8, 8-7 ATS) at Denver Broncos (5-10, 8-7), 4:25 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Raiders 26.75, Broncos 24.25
• Spread/Total Movements: 1 to 2.5
• Weather: 50 degrees, clear, 5-10 mph
• Raiders Injuries to Watch: LT Trent Brown (knee), OG Denzelle Good (ankle), S LaMarcus Joyner (thigh)
• Broncos Injuries to Watch: WR K.J. Hamler (concussion), OLB Bradley Chubb (ankle)

Raiders Trends

• Las Vegas beat Denver 37-12 as 3.5-point home favorites back in Week 10 in a game totaled at 50 points.
• The Raiders have played over the total in four straight games.
• Las Vegas has covered six straight games against Denver.
• Derek Carr played fairly well through his groin injury last week, completing 21/34 passes for 336 yards and one touchdown against the Dolphins. Carr has posted 23+ FP in his last three full games, and he has a great chance to do it again this week against a decimated Broncos secondary in a game totaled north of 50 points. Carr wasn’t needed last game thanks to Drew Lock’s four INTs in Week 10 as Carr threw for just 154 yards in their 25-point victory.
• Most of Carr’s production last week came on his 85-yard TD strike to Nelson Agholor. He’s now posted 4+ catches in six straight games with 88+ receiving yards in three of those contests. Agholor managed just an eight-yard catch on four targets when these teams met in Week 10 with Carr having to do little in that contest.
• Darren Waller is one of the hottest receivers in the league, regardless of position. He’s posted 5+ catches and 75+ yards in four straight games and in five of his last six contests. He did little (3/37) against the Broncos earlier this season, but he did record 13/177 receiving against Denver in two games last season.
• Josh Jacobs did the heavy lifting for the Raiders’ offense the last time these teams met with 21/112/2 rushing and 4/24 receiving. He had fallen below 4.0 YPC in four straight games in Weeks 11-15 before averaging 5.3 YPC (13/69 rushing) last week. The Broncos are giving up 4.5 YPC and .8 rushing TDs per game to RBs.

Broncos Trends

• These teams are 10-1 toward unders in their last 11 meetings.
• Denver is 5-2 toward unders in its last seven games.
• Melvin Gordon needs 107 rushing yards to get to 1000 yards for the season after posting 16/79 rushing against the Chargers last week with Philip Lindsay done for the season. Gordon has averaged 4.9 YPC or better in four straight games (6.2 YPC in that span) and the Raiders are giving up 4.8 YPC and 105.9 rushing yards per game to RBs (8th-most).
• Drew Lock has fallen below 17 FP in five of his last six games after averaging 5.6 YPA without a touchdown against the Chargers last week. Lock averaged 5.5 YPA with four INTs against the Raiders back in Week 10.
• Jerry Jeudy is second in the league in drops (12) after he dropped FIVE passes against the Chargers last week — he finished with 6/61 receiving on a season-best 15 targets. He posted 4/68 receiving against the Raiders in Week 10.
• Tim Patrick’s TD luck has dried up the last two weeks, and he hasn’t reached 40+ receiving yards or 4+ catches in three straight games. He failed to score against the Raiders in Week 10 as he finished with 4/61 receiving.
• Noah Fant is clearly healthier and moving much better than he did in the months of October and December. He’s reached 55+ receiving yards in each of his last three full games after reaching 55+ yards just three times in his first 10 games. Fant has seen 20 targets in the last two weeks for 14/133/1 receiving. Mike Gesicki (4/54 receiving) and Hunter Henry (5/65/1) have had success in this matchup the last two weeks.

Brolley’s Bets

Las Vegas Raiders -2.5 (Staff Pick Lean)

Darren Waller (LV) over 61.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Derek Carr (LV) over 249.5 passing yards (Best Bet)

Jerry Jeudy (Den) over 39.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Los Angeles Chargers (6-9, 8-7 ATS) at Kansas City Chiefs (14-1, 7-8), 4:25 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Chargers 23.75, Chiefs 20.25
• Spread/Total Movements: None of note.
• Weather: 35 degrees, clear, 5 mph
• Chargers Injuries to Watch: WR Keenan Allen (hamstring/COVID-19, out), DE Joey Bosa (shin/concussion), RT Bryan Bulaga (foot), CB Casey Hayward (hamstring), S Rayshawn Jenkins (ankle)
• Chiefs Injuries to Watch: QB Patrick Mahomes (rest), TE Travis Kelce (rest), WR Tyreek Hill (rest), RB Le’Veon Bell (knee), RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ankle, out), WR Sammy Watkins (calf),

Game Note

The Chiefs will rest some key starters this week with the top seed in the AFC locked up.

Chargers Trends

• Los Angeles is 4-1 toward unders in its last five games.
• Justin Herbert has led game-winning drives in the final two minutes of their last three games, which has been a welcome change for Chargers fans since they’ve sat through numerous one-score losses in the last two years. Herbert has topped 18+ FP just once in his last five games since Austin Ekeler returned to the lineup. The Chiefs have given up 19+ FP to five of the last six QBs they’ve faced.
• Ekeler saw just 13 touches last week, which matched his lowest total of the season from back in Week 13 when the Patriots beat them by 45 points. He still posted 68/1 scrimmage despite his lighter workload. Ekeler totaled 148 scrimmage yards on 20 touches in this matchup back in Week 2.
• Keenan Allen sat out last week with his hamstring injury. He recorded just a 17-yard catch on three targets while playing only 36% of the snaps the last time he took the field in Week 15. He posted 7/96 receiving in this matchup back in Week 2. He also landed on the COVID-19 list this week so he won’t play.
• Mike Williams will lead these WRs followed by Jalen Guyton and Tyron Johnson. Williams turned a season-high 30% target share (10 targets) into just 4/54 receiving as he just missed TDs on two end-zone targets. Guyton finished with 3/43 receiving on five targets while Johnson caught all three of his targets for 26 yards. The Chiefs are allowing just 31.7 FPG to WRs (2nd-fewest) but they could rest some key defenders this week.
• Hunter Henry is expected to return this week after missing last week as a high-risk contact to someone who tested positive for COVID-19. He had run off double-digit FP in five of his last six games after leading the Chargers receivers in fantasy production against the Raiders in Week 15 with 5/65/1 receiving on seven targets. He posted 6/83 receiving in this matchup in Week 2 and the Chiefs gave up 5/47/1 receiving to Hayden Hurst last week.

Chiefs Trends

• Kansas City beat the Chargers 23-20 in overtime as 8.5-point road favorites back in Week 2 in a game totaled at 47 points.
• The Chiefs have covered just once in their last seven games and their lone ATS victory came by half a point against the Saints in Week 16.
• The Chiefs have nothing to play for in Week 17 after wrapping up the top seed in the AFC playoffs with their victory over the Falcons last week. HC Andy Reid has already said key starters will rest this week, which means Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill will be among those players who rest against the Chargers this week.
• Chad Henne will lead the offense this week, and he hasn’t attempted more than six passes in a season since 2014. We’ll see if a guy like Mecole Hardman gets a chance to play this week, but Byron Pringle and Gehrig Dieter are the best bets to see the most time at WR this week.
• Andy will also likely look to limit or rest Le’Veon Bell and Darrel Williams this week since Clyde Edwards-Helaire is already nursing an ankle injury. Darwin Thompson should see the most work of his young career against the Chargers this week.

Brolley’s Bets

Los Angeles Chargers -3.5 (Staff Pick Lean)

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-14, 6-9 ATS) at Indianapolis Colts (10-5, 8-7), 4:25 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Jaguars 17.75, Colts 31.75
• Spread/Total Movements: 13.5 to 14,
• Weather: Dome
• Jaguars Injuries to Watch: WR D.J. Chark (shin, out), RB James Robinson (ankle, out), WR Collin Johnson (hamstring)
• Colts Injuries to Watch: LT Anthony Castonzo (ankle, IR), TE Jack Doyle (quad), WR Michael Pittman (concussion), DT DeForest Buckner (ankle), S Khari Willis (concussion), CB Rock Ya-Sin (concussion)

Jaguars Trends

• The Jaguars lost their 14th consecutive game last week after they beat the Colts 27-20 in the season opener as seven-point home underdogs in a game totaled at 44 points.
• Jacksonville is 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 games against the Colts.
• These teams have played over the total in four of their last five meetings.
• Mike Glennon will get another start this week after recording 211/2 passing with two INTs against the Bears. The Colts have given up 310+ passing yards in four straight games and in five of their last six contests.
• D.J. Chark is dealing with yet another ankle injury this week and he may not play. He’s coming off his best game since his Week 9 explosion as he posted 4/62/ receiving on seven targets against the Bears. Chark recorded 3/25/1 receiving against the Colts in the season opener.
• Laviska Shenault posted 9+ FP in four straight games after recording 5/48/1 receiving on seven targets against the Bears in Week 16 with a healthy 87% of the snaps. The rookie has 5+ catches in the three straight games but he hasn’t topped 50+ receiving yards in any of those contests. Shenault posted 3/37/1 receiving in his first pro game against the Colts in Week 1.
• Dare Ogunbowale is well ahead of Devine Ozigbo after playing 71% of the snaps against the Bears. Ogunbowale posted 14/71 rushing and 3/7 receiving on five targets while Ozigbo mustered just 1/1 rushing and 1/3 receiving. James Conner and David Johnson each went for 17+ FP against the Colts in the last two weeks.

Colts Trends

• The Colts no longer control their playoff destiny after they blew a two-touchdown halftime lead against the Steelers last week.
• The Colts averaged 6.4 yards per play and they allowed just 3.3 YPP in the first half against Pittsburgh before they averaged 4.4 YPP and allowed 7.2 YPP in the second half.
• Indy is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.
• The Colts are 8-3 toward overs in their last 11 games.
• Jonathan Taylor has 34/157/3 rushing and 4/12 receiving on five targets in the last two weeks with Jordan Wilkins seeing no snaps. The Jaguars have given up seven total TDs with four different backs (Montgomery/Henry/Dalvin/Chubb) totaling 120+ scrimmage yards.
• Nyheim Hines has 40+ rushing yards in three straight games but he hasn’t topped 20 receiving yards in that same span after doing it nine times in his first 12 games. Hines ripped the Jaguars for 73/2 scrimmage in the season opener.
• Philip Rivers’ production has slipped in three consecutive games with Taylor taking on a much bigger role in this offense, and he bottomed out with 12.8 FP against the Steelers last week. Luckily, Rivers found a get-well spot in the season finale against a Jaguars defense that’s given up 40+ points in consecutive games. The Colts have an implied team total sitting around 32 points so Phil has a great chance to throw for multiple scores for the sixth time in his last seven games.
• T.Y. Hilton has 60+ yards in five straight games, but he’s caught just seven passes in the last two games without a touchdown after securing 17 catches and four TDs in Weeks 12-14. Marquise Brown posted 6/98 receiving in this matchup two weeks ago.
• Zach Pascal has seen exactly six targets in each of his last two games, which he’s turned into 8/163/3 receiving against the Texans and the Steelers. The Jaguars have given up 13.7 catches per game to WRs this season.

Brolley’s Bets

Indianapolis Colts -14 (Staff Pick Lean)

Jonathan Taylor (Ind) over 83. 5 rushing yards (Best Bet)

T.Y. Hilton (Ind) over 56.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Tennessee Titans (10-5, 7-8 ATS) at Houston Texans (4-11, 5-10), 4:25 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Titans 31.75, Texans 24.25
• Spread/Total Movements: None of note.
• Weather: Dome
• Titans Injuries to Watch: K Stephen Gostkowski (COVID-19), P Brett Kern (COVID-19), RT Dennis Kelly (knee),
• Texans Injuries to Watch: LT Laremy Tunsil (ankle), RB Duke Johnson (neck), WR Keke Coutee (foot), CB Phillip Gaines (knee)

Titans Trends

• Tennessee beat the Texans 42-36 as four-point home favorites in overtime back in Week 6 in a game totaled at 52 points.
• Tennessee is 5-1 toward overs in its last six road games.
• Derrick Henry flopped last week with his fourth performance with fewer than double-digit FP. He finished with 23/98 rushing (4.3 YPC) in their blowout loss to the Packers. He had his best fantasy performance against this lowly Texans run defense in Week 6 when he posted 40.4 FP with 264/2 scrimmage. The Texans also just gave up 40/267/2 scrimmage to the likes of Samaje Perine and Giovani Bernard last week.
• Ryan Tannehill threw for a season-low 121 scoreless yards last week against the Packers, but he had his best rushing performance of the with 55/1 thanks to a 42-yard touchdown run. He ripped the Texans for 364/4 passing back in Week 6 and Brandon Allen just tagged them for 371/2 last week.
• A.J. Brown needs 76 receiving yards to start his career with consecutive 1000-yard seasons, and he’ll need to pick up the pace this week with just 77/1 receiving in his last two games. He still has 4+ catches in six straight games and he’s reached that mark in 12-of-13 games. Brown finished with 5/56/2 receiving against the Texans back in Week 6.
• Corey Davis posted his second goose egg of the season last week against Green Bay, which kept him 55 yards from his first 1000-yard receiving season in his four-year career. He didn’t play against the Texans earlier in the season. Tee Higgins (6/99/1 receiving) and A.J. Green (4/64) had plenty of success in this matchup last week.
• Jonnu Smith has posted consecutive double-digit FP performances after reaching the mark in Weeks 6-14. He also scored his third touchdown since Week 5 after opening the year with five scores in his first five games. Drew Sample scored a touchdown last week against the Texans and Houston has given up six scores to TEs this season.

Texans Trends

• The Texans are 5-2 toward unders in their last seven games.
• Houston is 2-5 ATS in its last seven home games.
• Deshaun Watson injured his throwing hand late last week, but he didn’t even show up on the injury report this week. He’s coming off a ho-hum 324/3 passing for 27.8 FP, his third performance with 21+ FP since he lost Will Fuller for the season four games ago. He torched the Titans for 335/4 passing in Week 6 and Tennessee has given up four TD passes to Aaron Rodgers and Baker Mayfield in two of the last three weeks.
• Brandin Cooks finally performed like the new #1 WR last week with 7/141/1 receiving against the Bengals. He’s posted 80+ yards and/or 5+ catches in 10 straight, which includes his 9/68/1 receiving performance against the Titans in October.
• Keke Coutee has posted 10+ FP in his first four games without Fuller in the lineup with 5+ catches and/or a touchdown in each game. Keelan Cole posted 7/67/1 receiving in this matchup in Week 14.
• Jordan Akins has finally delivered on his targets in the last two weeks with 9/89 receiving on 10 targets against the Colts and the Bengals. The Titans haven’t been attacked by TEs in recent weeks, but they’re still giving up 12.6 FP to TEs (14th-most).
• David Johnson played on 96% of the snaps last week with Duke Johnson and C.J. Prosise out of the lineup. He turned in his first 100-yard rushing game of the season against the Bengals, which came a week after a surprising 100-yard receiving performance against the Colts. DJ has had double-digit FP in nine of his 10 full games this season, including in Week 6 when he posted 69/1 scrimmage against the Titans.

Brolley’s Bets

Houston Texans +7.5 (Staff Pick Lean)

Corey Davis (Ten) over 56.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Arizona Cardinals (8-7, 7-8 ATS) at Los Angeles Rams (9-6, 8-7), 4:25 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Cardinals 22, Rams 18.5
• Spread/Total Movements: Rams -1.5 to Cards -3.5
• Weather: Dome
• Cardinals Injuries to Watch: RB Chase Edmonds (hip), WR DeAndre Hopkins (hip), S Chris Banjo (COVID-19), WR Larry Fitzgerald (groin), CB Dre Kirkpatrick (hamstring/calf)
• Rams Injuries to Watch: QB Jared Goff (thumb, out), WR Cooper Kupp (COVID-19, out), RB Cam Akers (ankle), RB Darrell Henderson (ankle, out), DL Michael Brockers (COVID-19, out), LB Micah Kiser (knee)

Cardinals Trends

• The Cardinals hurt their playoff hopes by losing outright to the 49ers as they averaged just 4.4 yards per play while allowing 7.2 yards per play to a previously struggling San Francisco squad.
• Arizona is 2-6 ATS in their last eight games after a 5-2 ATS start to its season.
• The Cardinals have played under the total in all seven of their road games this season.
• Kyler Murray will play through a minor leg injury this week. He failed to throw a TD pass for the second time this year, and he averaged 5.0 YPA or worse for the third time in his last five games. He did at least run for 75 yards but that was before he picked up his leg injury at the very end of the game. Murray curbed his running in Weeks 11-13 as he posted just 15/61 rushing on his way to just 47.6 FP. Kyler posted 173/3 passing and 5/15 rushing against the Rams in one of those contests in Week 13.
• DeAndre Hopkins has posted 55 or fewer receiving yards in five of his last eight games but he’s crested 125+ receiving yards in his other three games in that span. He’s at least seen 11+ targets and 8+ catches in each of his last four games, which includes his 8/52/1 receiving line against Jalen Ramsey and the Rams in Week 13.
• Christian Kirk awoke from his slumber with 7/76 receiving last week after failing to reach double-digit FP in six straight games. He managed just a two-yard catch against the Rams back in Week 13.
• Dan Arnold has four touchdowns in his last six games. He disappointed a bit with just 3/25 receiving on five targets against the 49ers in Week 16, but he just missed a long reception on a shot play, which would’ve given him double-digit FP. Arnold scored two touchdowns against the Rams back in Week 13.
• Kenyan Drake scored his sixth touchdown in as many games last week, but he’s also averaged 3.5 YPC or worse in five of those six games. The one exception came in Week 13 against the Rams when he posted 10/49/1 rushing (4.9 YPC) and 2/9 receiving.

Rams Trends

• Los Angeles beat the Cardinals 38-28 as 2.5-point road favorites back in Week 13 in a game totaled at 49 points.
• The Rams’ Super Bowl aspirations are cratering the last two weeks after losing to the previously winless Jets in Week 15 and after failing to score a touchdown against the Seahawks.
• The Rams are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven meetings with the Cardinals.
• LA is 10-2 toward unders in its last 12 games.
• Jared Goff was averaging just 5.9 YPA with a putrid 3.0% TD rate in his last 10 games, and he’ll now miss the season finale surgery for his fractured throwing thumb. John Wolford will see his first NFL action as this week’s starter. He averaged 202.0 passing yards, 1.8 TDs, and 20.0 rushing yards per game in eight games in the AAF league in 2019. Goff posted 351/1 passing against the Cardinals in Week 13.
• Robert Woods will be the clear top option this week with Cooper Kupp out of the lineup. He’s averaging just 45.3 receiving yards per game in the last three weeks but he did finish with 10/85 receiving against the Cardinals in Week 13.
• Josh Reynolds and Van Jefferson will see increased opportunities this week with Kupp out of the lineup, and Jefferson could be an interesting dart throw since he’s seen the second-team reps with Wolford since training camp. Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett should also see their roles increased. Higbee posted 4/24/1 receiving and Everett had 6/44 against the Cardinals in Week 13.
• Malcolm Brown is the only healthy back left in this backfield with Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson dealing with high-ankle injuries. Brown will be the bell cow back in the Rams backfield this week with just Xavier Jones behind him so he has a path to 20+ touches this week. Brown is averaging 4.1 YPC on 98 carries with five rushing TDs this season. Arizona got run all over last week by Jeff Wilson and the 49er and they give up 5.2 YPC to RBs the last four weeks, so it’s a solid spot.

Brolley’s Bets

*Arizona Cardinals +1.5 (Best Bet)

DeAndre Hopkins (Ari) under 75.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

*I grabbed this line when it was mispriced early in the week when there was a sliver of a chance that Kyler Murray may not play. Murray will play and this line has swung through a field goal in the Cardinals’ favor. I think the better bet is on the Rams side now getting +3.5.

Seattle Seahawks (11-4, 8-7 ATS) at San Francisco 49ers (6-9, 6-9), 4:25 p.m., Glendale, Ariz.

• Implied Team Totals: Seahawks 26.5, 49ers 20
• Spread/Total Movements: 4.5 to 6.5, 47.5 to 46.5
• Weather: Dome
• Seahawks Injuries to Watch: RB Carlos Hyde (illness), RB DeeJay Dallas (ankle), OG Mike Iupati (neck), TE Greg Olsen (foot), OG Mike Iupati (neck)
• 49ers Injuries to Watch: WR Brandon Aiyuk (ankle, out), LT Trent Williams (elbow, out), WR Deebo Samuel (hamstring, out), K Robbie Gould (COVID-19), DT Javon Kinlaw (knee), CB Richard Sherman (calf), CB K’Waun Williams (shin)

Seahawks Trends

• Seattle beat San Francisco 37-27 as one-point home favorites back in Week 8 in a game totaled at 54.5 points.
• The Seahawks have played under the total in seven straight games.
• Seattle hasn’t covered a spread in its last five games.
• Russell Wilson has thrown for one touchdown in four of his last five games with the lone outlier coming in his four-TD performance in their blowout victory over Jets in Week 14. He roasted the 49ers for 261/4 passing back in Week 8 when the offense was still humming. Wilson is two TD passes away from his first 40-TD season of his career.
• D.K. Metcalf has 5+ catches in five straight games but he’s scored just one TD in that span after scoring nine TDs in his first 10 contests. He had his best game of the season against the 49ers in Week 8 with 12/161/2 receiving.
• Tyler Lockett hasn’t reached 70+ receiving yards and he has just one touchdown since he erupted for 15/200/3 receiving against the Cardinals in Week 7. That includes his 4/33 performance against the 49ers in Week 8.
• Chris Carson hasn’t found the end zone in his last two games but he has 31/132 rushing and 5/16 receiving in that span. Carson has averaged 4.2 YPC or better in 10 straight games and he’s seen 12+ carries in four straight games. He missed this matchup earlier this season. The 49ers are giving up just 3.7 YPC and 72.8 rushing yards per game (3rd-fewest).

49ers Trends

• The 49ers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games.
• These teams are 4-0-1 toward overs in their last five meetings.
• Jeff Wilson threw his hat into the ring to potentially be San Francisco’s lead runner in 2021 after his impressive performance against the Cardinals. The third-year RB posted a career-best 183 rushing yards on 22 carries (8.3 YPC) and he added a 21-yard TD catch for 27.4 FP in Week 16. Wilson played on 70% of the snaps ahead of Jerick McKinnon (4/32 scrimmage, 18%) and Tevin Coleman (3/4,12%). San Francisco RBs combined for 18/48/2 rushing in this matchup back in Week 8.
• C.J. Beathard stepped into the starting lineup last week and he completed 13/22 passes for 182 yards and three TDs and he added 3/18 rushing in their upset victory over the Cardinals. The Seahawks have allowed just two TD passes and 191.5 passing yards per game in their last four contests to the likes of Goff/Haskins/Darnold/McCoy.
• Beathard will be without Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel at receiver this week, which leaves Richie James and Kendrick Bourne as his top two receivers. Bourne posted 8/81 receiving on 10 targets when Samuel missed this matchup back in Week 8
• George Kittle provided an immediate spark for the 49ers offense in Week 16 even after an eight-week layoff for his broken foot. Kittle posted 4/92 receiving on five targets against the Cardinals despite playing just 50% of the snaps. Kittle’s workload should grow this week against the Seahawks. He managed just 2/39 receiving against Seattle in Week 8 but that was the game Kittle broke his foot.

Brolley’s Bets

*San Francisco 49ers +4.5 (Best Bet)

George Kittle (SF) over 51.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

*I bet this game before it came out that Trent Brown and Brandon Aiyuk would miss this week but I still like the 49ers getting points this week

Sunday Night Football

Washington Football Teams (6-9, 9-6 ATS) at Philadelphia Eagles (4-10-1, 5-10), 8 p.m.

• Implied Team Totals: Washington 22.75, Eagles 20.75
• Spread/Total Movements: Eagles -1.5 to Washington -2, 42.5 to 43.5
• Weather: 39 degrees, 30% chance of rain, 5-10 mph
• Washington Injuries to Watch: WR Terry McLaurin (ankle), QB Alex Smith (calf), RB Antonio Gibson (toe), LB Thomas Davis (knee), LG Wes Schweitzer (hip)
• Eagles Injuries to Watch: DL Fletcher Cox (stinger), TE Dallas Goedert (calf, doubtful), RB Miles Sanders (knee, doubtful), WR DeSean Jackson (ankle), DB Jalen Mills (COVID-19), DE Derek Barnett (calf), LT Jordan Mailata (concussion), TE Richard Rodgers (ankle)

Washington Trends

• Washington beat the Eagles 27-17 as 5.5-point home underdogs in the season opener in a game totaled at 41.5 points.
• Washington had its five-game ATS winning streak snapped last week
• The Football Team has played under the total in four straight games.
• Alex Smith should return this week off of his calf injury and he gets a good spot after a two-week layoff. The Eagles’ decimated secondary just got whipped by Andy Dalton for 12.6 YPA and three touchdowns, and they’ve given up 20+ FP to four straight QBs.
• Terry McLaurin got the week off last week as he’s been laboring through an ankle injury in December. He had a pair of two-catch performances in his last two games with Smith in Weeks 13-14 before posting 7/77 receiving on 12 targets with Dwayne Haskins in Week 15. McLaurin managed just 5/61 receiving in this matchup back in Week 1. Cam Sims and Steven Sims would be the top WR options if McLaurin can’t play again this week.
• Logan Thomas is averaging 10.8 targets per game in his last four contests with McLaurin struggling to get healthy. He’s reached double-digit FP in five straight games and in eight of his last 10 games. Thomas got his season off on the right foot with 4/37/1 receiving against the Eagles in the season opener.
• Washington eased Antonio Gibson into the lineup last week with 30% of the snaps, and he produced 69 yards on 13 touches. His role should grow this week and this game projects to be close throughout with the Football Team entering as small favorites. A previously deceased Ezekiel Elliott averaged 5.5 YPC (19/105 rushing) against an Eagles defense without Fletcher Cox last week.
• J.D. McKissic has two receiving TDs in his last two games and he has 8+ catches in three of his last four games in contests they primarily trailed in. The Eagles are allowing just 4.2/30.9/.1 receiving per game to RBs.

Eagles Trends

• The Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games but they’re 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.
• Jalen Hurts came out blistering last week but he ended up with three turnovers as the Eagles could muster just 17 points against the Cowboys. He’s averaging 340 passing yards per game the last two weeks and he’s posted 9+ carries and 63+ rushing yards in each of his three starts. Russell Wilson ran for 52 yards against Washington two weeks ago, but the Football Team is still giving up just 217.3 passing yards per game to QBs (2nd-fewest).
• The Eagles are now rolling with a six WR rotation with DeSean Jackson getting back into the act last week — he scored on an 81-yard bomb. Greg Ward ran the most routes (44 of 48) while Jalen Reagor had the most targets (6) and catches (3). Washington is giving up just 150.6 receiving yards per game to WRs (6th-fewest), and no Eagles WRs topped 8 FP in this matchup in the season opener.
• Zach Ertz could have a bigger role this week after Dallas Goedert left Week 16 early with a calf injury. Ertz has seen seven targets in each of his last two games, and he’s turned those looks into 5/102 receiving against the Cardinals and the Cowboys. Ertz scored in this matchup all the way back in the season opener.
• Miles Sanders failed to top 3.8 YPC four the fourth time in his last five games, but his receiving production is back with Hurts in the lineup. He’s finished with 20+ receiving yards in three straight games after doing it just twice in his first nine games. Miles missed the season opener against the Football Team, and they limited Mike Davis and Rodney Smith to a combined 21/51/1 rushing (2.4 YPC) last week.

Brolley’s Bets

Washington Football Team +1.5 (Best Bet)

Zach Ertz (Phi) over 33.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)