My power ratings are designed to be a starting point for point-spread betting between two teams. They take into account recent performances, long-term injuries, coaching, and strength of schedule. These ratings are intended to help predict performances in the present, but they’re not necessarily predictive for the rest of the season.
I will take my Power Ratings into account when I make my weekly against the spread picks for the week, but I’ll also consider current injury reports, home-field advantage, weather, and other factors that may be relevant. I’m currently baking in a one and a half to two-point advantage for home teams right now. I hope you find these ratings useful and good luck with your wagers!
|Rank||Team||Power Rating||Record (ATS)||Ratings Change||Super Bowl LV Odds|
|1.||Kansas City Chiefs||8.5||14-1 (7-8)||-.5||+190|
|2.||Buffalo Bills||7||12-3 (10-5)||+.5||+900|
|3.||Green Bay Packers||6.5||12-3 (9-6)||+.5||+525|
|4.||Baltimore Ravens||6.5||10-5 (9-6)||+.5||+1400|
|5.||New Orleans Saints||6||11-4 (8-7)||+.5||+700|
|6.||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||5.5||10-5 (8-7)||+.5||+1100|
|7.||Seattle Seahawks||5||11-4 (8-7)||—||+1000|
|8.||Indianapolis Colts||4.5||10-5 (8-7)||-.5||+3300|
|9.||Cleveland Browns||4||10-5 (6-9)||—||+6000|
|10.||Pittsburgh Steelers||3.5||12-3 (9-6)||+2||+2200|
|11.||Tennessee Titans||3.5||10-5 (7-8)||-1||+2800|
|12.||Los Angeles Rams||2.5||9-6 (8-7)||-2.5||+3300|
|13.||Miami Dolphins||2.5||10-5 (11-4)||—||+6000|
|14.||Arizona Cardinals||2||8-7 (7-8)||-.5||+8000|
|15.||Chicago Bears||1.5||8-7 (8-7)||+.5||+7000|
|17.||Atlanta Falcons||-.5||4-11 (7-8)||+.5||Eliminated|
|18.||Carolina Panthers||-.5||5-10 (-6)||+.5||Eliminated|
|19.||San Francisco 49ers||-1||6-9 (6-9)||+1||Eliminated|
|20.||Las Vegas Raiders||-1||7-8 (8-7)||—||Eliminated|
|21.||Minnesota Vikings||-1||6-9 (6-9)||-1||Eliminated|
|22.||Dallas Cowboys||-1.5||6-9 (5-10)||+2||+10000|
|23.||Philadelphia Eagles||-1.5||4-10-1 (5-10)||-1||Eliminated|
|24.||Los Angeles Chargers||-2||6-9 (8-7)||—||Eliminated|
|25.||New England Patriots||-2.5||6-9 (6-9)||-1||Eliminated|
|26.||New York Giants||-3||5-10 (8-7)||-.5||+15000|
|27.||Denver Broncos||-3||5-10 (8-7)||—||Eliminated|
|28.||Houston Texans||-3.5||4-11 (5-10)||-1||Eliminated|
|29.||New York Jets||-5||2-13 (5-10)||+2||Eliminated|
|30.||Cincinnati Bengals||-6||4-10-1 (9-6)||+2||Eliminated|
|31.||Detroit Lions||-6.5||5-10 (6-9)||-2.5||Eliminated|
|32.||Jacksonville Jaguars||-7.5||1-14 (6-9)||-1||Eliminated|
Week 17 Risers
Teams who improved from the last Power Ratings update on Dec. 22.
Buffalo Bills (8.5 to 7) — The gap between the Chiefs and the Bills continues to close as we head into the final week of the season. Buffalo has covered seven straight games after a four-game ATS losing streak in Weeks 5-8. They scored another five touchdowns in Week 16 while holding the Patriots to just nine points.
Green Bay Packers (6 to 6.5) — The Packers snapped a two-game ATS losing streak with a dominant 26-point victory over the Titans by hitting 40+ points for the fourth time this season. Aaron Rodgers overtook Patrick Mahomes this week to become the new odds-on favorite to win the MVP this season at -200 thanks to his sixth game with four TD passes.
Baltimore Ravens (6 to 6.5) — The Ravens have covered in five straight games with four consecutive outright victories in that span. Lamar Jackson and the offense is getting most of the press, but their defense has given up fewer than 20 points in four of their last five games.
New Orleans Saints (5.5 to 6) — Alvin Kamara was in the giving mood for fantasy owners on Christmas as he tied an NFL record with six rushing TDs against the Vikings. The Saints posted 583 total yards and they averaged 8.0 yards per play on their way to scoring 52 points against the Vikings on Christmas Day.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5 to 5.5) — The Buccaneers had failed to score in the first quarter of four straight games, and they had been outscored 59-7 in the first quarter of their last six games before exploding against the Lions in Week 16. Tom Brady posted 179/2 passing in the first quarter against the Lions, and the Bucs averaged 8.4 yards per play in their 40-point rout of Detroit. Tampa has covered in three of their last four games heading into Week 17.
Pittsburgh Steelers (1.5 to 3.5) — The Steelers’ offense is far from being out of the woods, but they actually attacked downfield in the second half last week to outscore the Colts by 18 points in the final 30 minutes. Ben Roethlisberger actually looked capable of making throws more than five yards downfield, and he averaged 7.0 YPA for the first time since Week 10.
Chicago Bears (1 to 1.5) — The Bears are an offensive juggernaut with 30+ points in four straight games, and they’re averaging 35.0 points per game and 396.8 total yards per game in that span. Mitchell Trubisky also improved to 6-2 in his eight starts this season and it’s fair to wonder if they’d already have a playoff spot wrapped up if they didn’t turn to Nick Foles this season.
San Francisco 49ers (-2 to -1) — George Kittle provided an immediate spark for the 49ers in his first game since Week 8 by posting 4/92 receiving on five targets. He also helped new starting RB Jeff Wilson to run for a career-high 183 rushing yards in their upset victory over the Cardinals. The 49ers covered last week for just the second time in eight games.
Carolina Panthers (-1 to -.5) — I’m all aboard the Panthers’ train for the future after what I saw from Matt Rhule’s teams on a weekly basis this season. Carolina had one of the least talented teams in the league, especially on the defensive side of the ball, but they were never an easy out with just two losses by more than two scores, which both came against the Buccaneers.
Dallas Cowboys (-3.5 to -1.5) — The Cowboys have had an absolute rollercoaster of a season but they’re back in position to steal a playoff spot with a win and a Washington loss. This week’s scenario seemed inconceivable after they dropped to 3-9 after an embarrassing loss to the Ravens on MNF in Week 13, but they’re riding a three-game winning streak with 30+ points scored in each of those contests.
New York Jets (-7 to -5) — The Jets went on quite possibly the worst two-game winning streak in NFL history as they cost themselves a chance at the next generational quarterback in Trevor Lawrence. The Jets have demonstrated just how terrible of a job Gregg Williams did before he got fired as they’ve allowed just 18.0 points per game and 301.0 yards per game in their victories the last two weeks.
Cincinnati Bengals (-8 to -6) — The Bengals, much like the Jets, have gone on an ill-fated two-game winning streak, which could cost them a chance to take Oregon OT Penei Sewell. The Bengals scored just 40 points in their first four games without Joe Burrow before their 64-point outburst in the last two weeks.
Week 17 Fallers
Teams who worsened from the last Power Ratings update on Dec. 22.
Kansas City Chiefs (9 to 8.5) — The Chiefs have covered just once in their last seven games and their lone ATS victory came by half a point against the Saints in Week 16. The Chiefs needed Atlanta to go full Falcons on them with their late field goal miss by the near-perfect Younghoe Koo, who had made his last 27 field-goal attempts before his miss in Week 16.
Indianapolis Colts (5 to 4.5) — The Colts no longer control their playoff destiny after they blew a two-touchdown halftime lead against the Steelers last week. The Colts averaged 6.4 yards per play and they allowed just 3.3 YPP in the first half against Pittsburgh before they averaged 4.4 YPP and allowed 7.2 YPP in the second half.
Los Angeles Rams (5 to 2.5) — The Rams’ Super Bowl aspirations are cratering the last two weeks after losing to the previously winless Jets in Week 15 and after failing to score a touchdown against the Seahawks. Jared Goff is averaging just 5.9 YPA with a putrid 3.0% TD rate in his last 10 games, and it’s difficult to see his play improving after surgery on his throwing thumb.
Tennessee Titans (4.5 to 3.5) — In a bit of a plot twist, the Titans were the team to be run off the field by the Packers last week in a 26-point loss on Sunday Night Football. Derrick Henry mustered 23/98 rushing (4.3 YPC) while A.J. Dillon and Aaron Jones combined for 31/218/2 rushing (7.0 YPC).
Arizona Cardinals (2.5 to 2) — The Cardinals hurt their playoff hopes by losing outright to the 49ers as they averaged just 4.4 yards per play while allowing 7.2 yards per play to a previously struggling San Francisco squad. Arizona is now 2-6 ATS in their last eight games after a 5-2 ATS start to its season.
Washington Football Team (1 to .5) — HC Ron Rivera and the Football Team won’t say it, but they used last week to get their two most important offensive players back to full health for this week’s win-or-go-home matchup with the Eagles. Terry McLaurin has been laboring through an ankle injury in December and they decided to give him two weeks to get ready for Week 17. The Football Team also decided to give Alex Smith an extra week of rest after he practiced in full on the Friday before Week 16.
Philadelphia Eagles (-.5 to -1.5) — The Eagles’ decimated secondary just got whipped by Andy Dalton for 12.6 YPA and three touchdowns, and a previously deceased Ezekiel Elliott averaged 5.5 YPC (19/105 rushing) against an Eagles defense without Fletcher Cox last week.
Minnesota Vikings (0 to -1) — The Vikings allowed 50+ points in a game for the first time since 1981 as Alvin Kamara tied an NFL record with six rushing TDs against Minnesota. The Vikings gave up 8.0 yards per play and 583 total yards in their 52-33 loss to the Saints.
New England Patriots (-1.5 to -2.5) — Cam Newton is once again going to have a difficult time finding work next season after getting benched for the second time in three games last week. Newton and Jarrett Stidham combined for 9/21 passing for 78 yards and a putrid 3.8 YPA against the Bills.
New York Giants (-2.5 to -3) — The Giants have played under the total in seven straight games, and they’ve failed to cover in three straight games and in four out of their last five games. The Giants still have a chance to back into the playoffs with a victory over the Cowboys and loss by the Football Team in Week 17.
Houston Texans (-2.5 to -3.5) — The Texans are playing out the string this week with their disappointing 4-11 record, and the worst part about this awful season for Houston is that the Dolphins will bear the fruits of their futility with their top-10 pick, which they received in last year’s Laremy Tunsil trade.
Detroit Lions (-4 to -6.5) — The Lions are 3-6 ATS in their last nine games after a 40-point drubbing by the Buccaneers in Week 16. Tampa Bay averaged 8.4 yards per play while Detroit could muster only 3.7 YPP after Matthew Stafford left the game early. Stafford will likely sit out the season finale as the injuries continue to mount at the end of the season for the veteran quarterback.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5 to -7.5) — Get the jersey printers ready as the Jaguars locked up Trevor Lawrence and the #1 overall pick in Week 16. Jacksonville lost its 14th consecutive game of the season last week and the Jets handed them the top overall pick with their stunning two-game winning streak.