Week 16 MNF Trends & Picks

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Week 16 MNF Trends & Picks

Examining trends for each team can help you make better-informed gambling and fantasy decisions. It’s never wise to bet a game based on a single trend and it’s also never wise to back off a wager based on a single trend, either. With that said, trends can point you in the right direction by corroborating stats and information you’ve gathered or they can make you reconsider making a bad wager based on flimsy data. I’ve gone game-by-game and compiled the most relevant trends for each team heading into this week’s contests. I’ve included any bets or leans I have for each game at the end of each writeup. Good luck with your wagers!

Monday Night Football

Buffalo Bills (11-3, 9-5 ATS) at New England Patriots (6-8, 6-8), 8:15 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Bills 19.5, Patriots 26.5

  • Spread/Total Movements: 6.5 to 7, 45.5 to 46

  • Weather: 36 degrees, clear, 5 mph

  • Bills Injuries to Watch: RB T.J. Yeldon (COVID-19)

  • Patriots Injuries to Watch: CB Stephon Gilmore (quad, IR), Damien Harris (ankle)

Bills Trends

  • The Bills have reeled off six consecutive covers after an 0-4 ATS stretch in Weeks 5-8.

  • Buffalo has won seven of their last eight games with their only loss coming on the Hail Murray pass in Week 10.

  • The Bills totaled 48 points and 534 yards while averaging 8.2 yards per play in their blowout victory over the Broncos last week.

  • Buffalo is 10-4 toward overs this season

  • The Bills beat the Patriots 24-21 as four-point home favorites in a game totaled at 41 points in Week 8.

  • Josh Allen posted a season-high 37.6 FP against the Broncos in Week 15. He hit a lull in Weeks 5-8 when he failed to reach 19+ FP in four straight games, but he’s otherwise posted 29+ FP in seven of his other 10 contests this season. Allen had his worst fantasy performance of the season against this week’s opponent, the Patriots when he posted 154 passing and 23/1 rushing in their Week 8 showdown.

  • Stefon Diggs has 9+ catches in five of his last six games and 90+ yards in six of his last seven contests. His matchup with the Patriots this week may be a little easier if Stephon Gilmore is unavailable to play after he suffered a quad injury in Week 15. Diggs posted 6/92 receiving on nine targets in this matchup back in Week 8 even. Allen posted his worst fantasy production of the season in that contest, in which Gilmore also sat out with a knee injury.

  • Cole Beasley really hits it big when he hits this season as he’s posted 109+ yards four times in the last eight games. He’s also finished with 41 or fewer yards in his other four contests in that span. Beasley had just 2/24 receiving in one of those games in that span against the Patriots in Week 8. The Patriots have given up 5+ catches to slot WRs in three straight games (Bowden/Kupp/Keenan).

  • John Brown should return this week off of his ankle injury after the Bills released Jake Kumerow on Dec. 24. Brown recorded 14/171 receiving on 19 targets before getting injured. Gabriel Davis would continue to fill in for Brown if he’s unable to return this week. He’s coming off his first disappointing game (2/18 receiving) as Brown’s replacement in Week 15. Brown had just a 21-yard catch on two targets against the Patriots back in Week 8.

  • Dawson Knox has been good for 7+ FP in four straight games with either four catches and/or a TD in each of those contests with Brown out of the lineup. The Patriots have given up just one TD to TEs this season.

  • Zack Moss has 13 carries in each of the last two games for 124 yards without a catch while Devin Singletary has a combined 15/100/1 rushing and 4/18 receiving in that same span. Moss posted 14/81/2 rushing in this matchup back in Week 8 while Singletary had 14/86 rushing with a six-yard catch. Salvon Ahmed and Matt Breida combined for 35/208/1 rushing last week against the Patriots.

Patriots Trends

  • New England’s NFL record 11-year playoff streak officially came to an end with its loss to the Dolphins last week.

  • The Patriots have mustered just 15 points in their last two games against the Dolphins and the Rams.

  • The Patriots are 10-4 toward unders with six straight games going under the total.

  • It looks like the Patriots will stick with Cam Newton this week but it wouldn’t be shocking to see Jarrett Stidham if the Patriots fall behind with New England eliminated from the playoffs. Cam has just five TD passes in 13 games this season and he’s now failed to score a rushing TD in four of his last five games. He posted 54/1 rushing and 174 scoreless passing yards in Week 8 against the Bills. Buffalo has held Drew Lock and Ben Roethlisberger to 319/3 passing in the last two weeks.

  • Jakobi Meyers has reached 45+ receiving yards in seven of his last nine games. He posted his second 100+ yard game of the season in Week 15 as he finished with 7/111 receiving on 10 targets against the Dolphins. He had 6/58 receiving on 10 targets in this matchup back in Week 8.

  • Sony Michel saw his first major action since Week 3 with Damien Harris (ankle) out of the lineup. He posted 10/74 rushing and he caught his only target for eight yards against the Dolphins. The Bills gave up two rushing scores to Melvin Gordon last week as Gordon and Phillip Lindsay combined for 22/99/2 rushing.

  • James White posted 4/52 receiving last week after he had just 5/2 receiving in his three previous games. He’s failed to reach double-digit FP in seven of his last nine games, including in Week 8 when he posted 2/35 receiving against the Bills.

Brolley’s Bets

Buffalo Bills -6.5 (Best Bet)

Cole Beasley (Buf) over 4.5 receptions (Best Bet)

Cam Newton (NE) under 169.5 passing yards (Best Bet)

Tom is a Senior Writer at Fantasy Points who specializes in fantasy and betting analysis. He’ll be helping you to navigate the waiver wire and manage your fantasy teams while also keeping our betting content robust all year long, especially during the season. Tom's Best Bets against the spread won at 61.5% clip in 2019 and he was a perfect 8-0 on his Best Bets for season win totals in 2020.