Week 14 Sunday Trends and Picks

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Week 14 Sunday Trends and Picks

Examining trends for each team can help you make better-informed gambling and fantasy decisions. It’s never wise to bet a game based on a single trend and it’s also never wise to back off a wager based on a single trend, either. With that said, trends can point you in the right direction by corroborating stats and information you’ve gathered or they can make you reconsider making a bad wager based on flimsy data. I’ve gone game-by-game and compiled the most relevant trends for each team heading into this week’s contests. I’ve included any bets or leans I have for each game at the end of each writeup. Good luck with your wagers!

This week’s player props

  • Jalen Hurts (Phi) over 39.5 rushing yards (-112, DraftKings)

  • Jonathan Taylor (Ind) over 52.5 rushing yards (-112, DraftKings)

  • Keenan Allen (LAC) over 69.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)

  • A.J. Brown (Ten) over 57.5 receiving yards (-118, DraftKings)

  • Ronald Jones (TB) over 59.5 rushing yards (-110, FanDuel)

  • Justin Jefferson (Min) over 73.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)

  • Brandon Aiyuk (SF) over 52.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel)

  • Dalton Schultz (Dal) over 3.5 receptions (-106, DraftKings)

  • Travis Kelce (KC) over 6.5 receptions (+115, FanDuel)

  • Cole Kmet (Chi) over 2.5 receptions (+112, DraftKings)

  • David Montgomery (Chi) over 65.5 rushing yards (-110, FanDuel)

  • Wayne Gallman (NYG) over 55.5 rushing yards (-112, DraftKings)

  • D.K. Metcalf (Sea) over 80.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM)

  • James Washington (Pit) over 17.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel)

  • Nick Chubb (Cle) over 86.5 rushing + receiving yards (-113, FanDuel)

Early Afternoon Games

Kansas City Chiefs (11-1, 6-6 ATS) at Miami Dolphins (8-4, 9-3), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Chiefs 29, Dolphins 21.25

  • Spread/Total Movements: 7.5 to 7 to 7.5, 49.5 to 50.5

  • Weather: 79 degrees, clear, 5 mph

  • Chiefs Injuries to Watch: LB Damien Wilson (knee)

  • Dolphins Injuries to Watch: RB Salvon Ahmed (Shoulder), LB Elandon Roberts (chest), LB Kyle Van Noy (hip), LG Ereck Flowers (ankle)

Chiefs Trends

  • The Chiefs have failed to cover in four straight games, but they’ve still won each of those games in one-score affairs.

  • Kansas City is 6-1 toward unders in its last seven December contests.

  • Kansas City churned out 447 total yards and they averaged 7.1 yards per play, but they settled for five field goals.

  • Patrick Mahomes is averaging 383 passing yards per game and 3.0 TDs in his last five games since the Chiefs have gone pass-heavy. He did fail to throw for multiple TDs for just the second time last week, and the Dolphins have allowed the second-fewest passing TDs to QBs (14).

  • Travis Kelce has 42/613/3 receiving on 56 targets in the last five games as he has a ridiculous 8+ catches in each of those contests. He also passed 1000 yards last week for the fifth consecutive season. Drew Sample posted 7/49 receiving in this matchup last week.

  • Tyreek Hill has 43/640/8 receiving on 63 targets in the last five games, and he just missed two more TDs last week. The Dolphins are allowing a generous 13.9 YPR to WRs this season.

  • Sammy Watkins has been an afterthought since returning to the lineup two weeks with just 8/73 receiving on 13 targets despite Mahomes’ extra volume. The Dolphins have allowed a pair of WRs to reach double-digit FP in consecutive games.

  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire dressed last week but he didn’t log a snap because of his illness. CEH is averaging just 11.8/45.3/.75 scrimmage per game since the Chiefs went pass-heavy in Week 8. Melvin Gordon is the only back to score against the Dolphins since Week 5 — he did it twice in Week 11.

Dolphins Trends

  • The Dolphins own a league-best 9-3 ATS record.

  • Miami is riding a four-game ATS winning streak at home

  • The Dolphins are 8-4 toward unders, including a 4-1 stretch toward unders in their last five home games.

  • Myles Gaskin saw a 71% snap share in his first game back with Salvon Ahmed, Matt Breida, and DeAndre Washington each out. He failed to convert on all six of his carries inside the 10-yard line, but he posted 23/141 scrimmage. Melvin Gordon posted 16/142 scrimmage in this matchup last week.

  • Tua Tagovailoa returned to the lineup after his Week 11 benching and after his throwing thumb injury before Week 12, and he delivered a season-high 296 passing yards while averaging 7.6 YPA. The Chiefs limited Drew Lock to 151/2 passing with two INTs last week but they had allowed 275+ yards and 2+ TD in three straight games before that.

  • DeVante Parker and the rest of this passing attack loses some steam with Tua in the lineup as he’s failed to reach 13+ FP or 65+ yards in any of the four games started and finished by the rookie QB. Big WRs Tim Patrick (4/44/2 receiving) and Mike Evans (3/50/2) have given the Chiefs issues in their last two games.

  • Mike Gesicki just needed Preston Williams to come to life a bit after posting 9/88/1 receiving against the Bengals last week. He’s scored in consecutive games and he has 35+ yards in each of his last five games since Williams left the lineup. Noah Fant posted 4/57 receiving in this matchup last week.

Brolley’s Bets

Miami Dolphins +7.5 (Best Bet)

Travis Kelce (KC) over 6.5 receptions (Best Bet)

Denver Broncos (4-8, 7-5 ATS) at Carolina Panthers (4-8, 7-5), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Broncos 22, Panthers 24.5
  • Spread/Total Movements: 4 to 2.5, 45.5 to 46.5
  • Weather: 64 degrees, clear, 5 mph
  • Broncos Injuries to Watch: CB A.J. Bouye (suspension), OG Graham Glasgow (foot)
  • Panthers Injuries to Watch: RB Christian McCaffrey (quad, doubtful), WR D.J. Moore (COVID-19), WR Curtis Samuel (COVID-19), DT Derrick Brown (COVID-19), LB Shaq Thompson (COVID-19), DL Zach Kerr (COVID-19)

Broncos Trends

  • The Broncos held the Chiefs to five field goals with just one TD last week.
  • Denver has played under the total in four straight games.
  • Melvin Gordon had by far his best performance last week against the Chiefs with 15/131 rushing (8.7 YPC). He’s still failed to find the end zone in five of his last six games and he has just two catches in his last five games. The Panthers are allowing a generous 4.7 YPC and 100.0/.8 rushing per game to RBs.
  • Drew Lock has failed to reach 13+ FP in three straight starts and he’s thrown more TDs than INTs in just three of his nine starts with nine TD to 13 INTs this season. The Panthers have allowed 300+ yards and 3 TDs to QBs (Cousins/Brady/Mahomes) in three of their last four games.
  • Tim Patrick has 60+ yards or a touchdown in four straight games with an actual quarterback leading the offense. As everyone predicted before the season, Patrick is leading the Broncos in receiving yards (607) and receiving TDs (5). The Panthers are giving up a touchdown per game to WRs.
  • Jerry Jeudy is coming off a miserable one-catch performance against the Chiefs, which gives him just 8/110 receiving since his monster game against the Falcons in Week 9.
  • Noah Fant has reached double-digit FP just once in his last nine games but his 57 receiving yards last week were the most he’s had since Week 2. The Panthers have given up seven double-digit FP performances in their last six games.

Panthers Trends

  • The Panthers have failed to cover in their last four games as a favorite.
  • Carolina is 4-1 toward unders in its last five home games.
  • Christian McCaffrey is expected back from his shoulder injury this week, and he’s averaging 25.3/124.6/2.0 scrimmage per game in his three contests. The Broncos are allowing 138.9 scrimmage yards and 5.1 catches per game to RBs.
  • Teddy Bridgewater had his ugliest performance of the season in Week 12 after a one-week absence for a knee injury. He completed a season-low 52.8% of his passes (19/36) for 267 yards, one TD, and one INT against the Vikings as he misfired on two touchdown passes to D.J. Moore. The Broncos are allowing just 224.3 passing yards per game to QBs (6th-fewest)
  • The Panthers will be without Moore this week after he tested positive for COVID-19, leaving Robby Anderson to lead this receiving corps. Robby posted 4/94/1 receiving the last time out against the Vikings, which was just the second time he’s scored this season. He’ll get some relief this week after CB A.J. Bouye received a suspension for PEDs.
  • Curtis Samuel is hoping to get clearance to play after he landed on the COVID-19 list as a high-risk contact. Samuel has 5+ catches and 70+ yards in his last two games, and he’s reached double-digit FP in six of his last seven games. The Broncos have given up just one TD to WRs in their last three games but Tyreek Hill could’ve easily had two TDs last week.

Brolley’s Bets

Denver Broncos +3.5 (Staff Picks Lean)

Houston Texans (4-8, 4-8 ATS) at Chicago Bears (5-7, 5-7), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Texans 22.25, Bears 23.25
  • Spread/Total Movements: 1.5 to 1, 46 to 44.5 to 45.5
  • Weather: 36 degrees, clear, 5-10 mph
  • Texans Injuries to Watch: WR Brandin Cooks (foot/neck), TE Pharaoh Brown (concussion)
  • Bears Injuries to Watch: LB Khalil Mack (shoulder), CB Buster Skrine (concussion), WR Darnell Mooney (personal),

Texans Trends

  • The Texans fumbled away a fourth straight cover late against the Colts last week.
  • Deshaun Watson failed to throw a touchdown pass for the first time last week, which was his first contest since Will Fuller got popped for PEDs. Watson still got to 21.4 FP thanks to 341 passing yards and a rushing TD. The Bears have allowed 18+ FP in three straight games, which includes 3+ TD passes to both Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford in their last two games since their Week 11 bye.
  • Brandin Cooks took a big hit and appeared to lose consciousness for a moment last week with Kenny Moore wrestling the ball away from him for an interception. Cooks passed through concussion protocol and returned to the field to finish with 5/65 receiving on eight targets in his first game without Fuller. Marvin Jones torched a declining Bears defense for 8/116/1 receiving last week.
  • Chad Hansen ran a team-high 47 routes last week followed by Keke Coutee (42). Coutee led the Texans with 8/141 receiving on nine targets (23.7% share) while Hansen added 5/101 on seven targets (18.4% target share). Coutee notably saw four targets that traveled 15 or more air yards last week after he saw an aDOT of 7.6 yards last season. The Bears just got burned for 17/302/2 receiving by the Lions WRs last week without Kenny Golladay in the lineup.
  • Jordan Akins has just 2/10 receiving on 56 routes over the last two weeks so a bigger role in the passing game has failed to materialize.
  • The Texans eased David Johnson back into the lineup with a 58% snap share with just 10/44/1 rushing without a catch on two targets. The Bears have given up double-digit FP to four different backs in the last three weeks after Adrian Peterson posted 16/57/2 rushing.

Bears Trends

  • The Bears have failed to cover in four straight games and they’ve lost six straight games outright to fall out of serious playoff contention.
  • Mitchell Trubisky’s boneheaded fumble at the end of last week opened the door to a potential in-game benching for Nick Foles this week. Still, he played fairly well up until his late lost fumble with his 7.9 YPA average for 267/1 passing against the Lions. Philip Rivers posted 285/2 passing in this matchup in Houston’s first game since Bradley Roby got suspended.
  • Allen Robinson will benefit from Roby’s absence this week, and he could use the help sincere hasn’t reached 90 receiving yards since Week 5. A-Rob also scored in just two of his last eight games but he at least has 6+ catches in five straight games. Michael Pittman disappointed a bit last week with 5/46 receiving in this matchup.
  • The Texans have had issues with speedy WRs like T.Y. Hilton (8/110/1 receiving) and Damiere Byrd (6/132/1) in the last three weeks to leave the light on for Darnell Mooney, who has reached double-digit FP just twice this season.
  • The Bears are finally giving Cole Kmet his chance to get his feet wet at the end of the season. He’s significantly out-snapped Jimmy Graham in three straight games and the extra playing time finally resulted in fantasy production against the Lions last week. He posted a career-best 5/37/1 receiving on a team-best seven targets (20.6% share). T.J. Hockenson posted 5/89 receiving in this matchup two weeks ago.
  • David Montgomery has posted consecutive games with 25+ FP with Mitchell Trubisky under center after posting 17/72/2 rushing and 4/39 receiving against the Lions in Week 13. Montgomery is now averaging 5.8 YPC (55/321/2 rushing) in his four full games with Trubisky playing under center compared to 3.7 YPC (102/326/1) in the seven games in which Foles has appeared. He gets another amazing matchup against a Texans defense that’s allowing league-highs in YPC (5.2) and rushing yards per game (139.8) to RBs.

Brolley’s Bets

Houston Texans -1.5 (Best Bet)

Cole Kmet (Chi) over 2.5 receptions (Best Bet)

David Montgomery (Chi) over 65.5 rushing yards (Best Bet)

Dallas Cowboys (3-9, 2-10 ATS) at Cincinnati Bengals (2-9-1, 7-5), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Cowboys 23, Bengals 19.5
  • Spread/Total Movements: 43.5 to 42.5
  • Weather: 43 degrees, clear, 5 mph
  • Cowboys Injuries to Watch: CB Chidobe Awuzie (COVID-19), OT Cameron Erving (knee)
  • Bengals Injuries to Watch: LT Jonah Williams (knee, IR), WR Tee Higgins (hamstring), CB Mackensie Alexander (knee),

Cowboys Trends

  • The Cowboys fell to 2-10 ATS last week with their third consecutive loss by 17+ points.
  • Dallas has failed to cover in six straight games as a favorite.
  • Feel the excitement, it’s Andy Dalton revenge week! He’s posted serviceable production since returning to the lineup in Week 11 after throwing for 285/2 last week against the Ravens. The Bengals have allowed fewer than 17 FP to the likes of Tua Tagovailoa, Daniel Jones, and Alex Smith in the last three weeks.
  • Amari Cooper has posted 14+ FP in each of his three games since Dalton returned to the lineup with 5+ catches in each game. DeVante Parker managed just 4/35 receiving on eight targets in this matchup last week.
  • CeeDee Lamb hasn’t topped 50+ receiving yards since Dalton returned to the lineup, but he does have 4+ catches in each game. Golden Tate had 4/36 receiving on eight targets against the Bengals two weeks ago.
  • Michael Gallup is surging the last two weeks with 19 combined targets and 11/127/1 receiving for 31.7 FP. The Bengals are giving up the 14th-most FPG (37.3) to WRs this season.
  • Dalton Schultz had 4+ catches in four consecutive games as a check-down option for Dalton and these Cowboys QBs. The Bengals have struggled against TEs most of this season, especially in the last two weeks with Evan Engram (6/129 receiving) and Mike Gesicki (9/88/1) each exploding for 17+ FP.
  • Ezekiel Elliott got stuffed at the one-yard line on three consecutive plays late in their blowout loss to the Ravens last week, which was a microcosm for his 2020. He at least has 95+ scrimmage yards in two of the three games since Dalton came back. The Bengals are allowing 5.0 YPC and 117.8 rushing yards per game to RBs after Myles Gaskin posted 23/141 scrimmage against them last week.

Bengals Trends

  • The Bengals have covered four straight games at home.
  • Cincinnati is 3-0-1 toward unders in its last four games.
  • Brandon Allen threw a 72-yard touchdown pass to Tyler Boyd that traveled just one air yard, but the Bengals otherwise averaged just 2.5 yards per play last week against the Dolphins. Allen has just 256/3 passing in his first two starts, but he did leave early with a chest injury last week. Ryan Finley relieved Allen last week and he completed 6/7 passes for 40 yards and an INT. The Cowboys are allowing 20.4 FPG to QBs (9th-most).
  • Boyd had just four catches in his first two games without Jor Burrow, which is a mark he matched or surpassed in each of his first 10 games. He did get ejected last week but he luckily scored a 72-yard TD before that. The Bengals haven’t faced a top-flight slot WR since JuJu Smith-Schuster posted 6/93/1 receiving against them in Week 9.
  • Tee Higgins must be pretty good if he can reach double-digit FP in each of his first two games without Joe Burrow as he’s managed 10/100/1 on 12 targets in the last two weeks. He now has 5+ catches in six of his last seven games with A.J. Green dying a slow death in his final year in Cincinnati. The Cowboys gave up a pair of TDs to the Ravens perimeter WRs last week.
  • Drew Sample led the Bengals with seven targets (25.9% share) in Week 13, which he turned into 7/49 receiving against the Dolphins. The Cowboys haven’t allowed 30+ receiving yards to a TE since Week 7.
  • Giovani Bernard hasn’t reached double-digit FP in four straight games since their Week 9 bye after posting 20+ FP in consecutive games in Weeks 7-8. He has a glimmer of hope this week against a Cowboys team that just allowed 294/2 rushing to the Ravens. They’re now allowing 5.1 YPC to RBs this season.

Brolley’s Bets

Cincinnati Bengals +3.5 (Staff Picks Lean)

Dalton Schultz (Dal) over 3.5 receptions (Best Bet)

Tennessee Titans (8-4, 5-7 ATS) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-11, 6-6), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Titans 30, Jaguars 22.5
  • Spread/Total Movements: 53.5 to 52.5
  • Weather: 77 degrees, clear, 5 mph
  • Titans Injuries to Watch: WR A.J. Brown (ankle), CB Breon Borders (hip), RT Dennis Kelly (knee), CB Adoree Jackson (knee)
  • Jaguars Injuries to Watch: RB James Robinson (knee), WR Laviska Shenault (thumb) C Brandon Linder (ankle)

Titans Trends

  • Tennessee beat Jacksonville 33-30 in Week 2 but the Jaguars covered the spread as seven-point road underdogs in a game totaled at 44.5 points.
  • The Titans are 5-2 ATS in the last seven games in this series.
  • The Browns eviscerated the Titans defense in the first half last week to the tune of 38 points and 344 total yards for a per play average of 8.0 yards.
  • Tennessee is 9-2-1 toward overs.
  • Ryan Tannehill has turned in 19+ FP in three straight games after posting 389/3 receiving catch-up mode against the Browns last week. He’s averaged 8.4+ YPA in each of those contests. Tannehill posted 239/4 passing in this matchup earlier this season, and the Jaguars have given up 250+ yards and multiple passing TDs in six straight games.
  • A.J. Brown hasn’t topped four catches in a game since Week 7 but he’s still posted 11+ FP in five of those six games. His 4/87 receiving line last week was a disappointment considering Tannehill threw 45 times while 8.6 YPA. He missed the matchup with the Jags back in Week 2. Justin Jefferson posted 9/121/1 receiving in this matchup last week.
  • Corey Davis might not fly under the radar again after he posted 11/182/1 receiving last week against the Browns, which gives him double-digit FP in nine of his 10 games. He’s now posted 65+ yards in four straight games. Adam Thielen posted 8/75/1 receiving in this matchup last week.
  • Anthony Firkser posted 5/51 receiving on seven targets despite playing fewer snaps than Geoff Swaim (38) and MyCole Pruitt (32) against the Browns. On a positive note, he ran a route on 25 of his 30 snaps, which was 14 more routes than both Swaim and Pruitt, who each ran 11 routes against the Browns. Firkser posted 4/45 receiving in this matchup back in Week 2 as the Jags gave up a combined 8/129/2 receiving to Firkser and Jonnu Smith.
  • Derrick Henry flopped in a lopsided loss to the Browns last week, thanks in part to Henry’s early fumble deep in their own zone. He saw a season-low 16 touches, which is something they’ll look to change against the Jaguars this week as 7.5-point road favorites. He managed just 25/84 rushing against them earlier this season.

Jaguars Trends

  • The Jaguars have lost their last two games to the Browns and the Vikings by a combined five points despite being a combined 18-point underdog in those games.
  • Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS in its last five games.
  • James Robinson had another day at the office last week with 24 touches, 108 yards, and a TD. He’s now sitting 254 touches, 1278 scrimmage yards, and nine TDs for the season. The Titans are giving up 134.8 scrimmage yards per game to RBs, including 120 scrimmage yards to J-Rob back in Week 2.
  • Mike Glennon has surprisingly been competent in his first two starts. He completed 28/42 passes for 280 yards, one TD, and two INTs in Jacksonville’s overtime loss to the Vikings in Week 13, which gives him 515 passing yards and three TDs in two starts. Glennon has been throwing downfield with reckless abandon as he’s leading the league with a staggering 20.8% deep-ball rate (20+ yards) for 175 yards, two TDs, and one INT. His aggressive style is intriguing this week going against a Titans defense that just got eviscerated by Baker Mayfield for 290/4 passing…in the first half.
  • D.J. Chark led these WRs with 43 routes and seven targets last week followed by Keelan Cole (37, 2), Collin Johnson (29, 6), Laviska Shenault (15, 3), and Chris Conley (4, 2).
  • Chark has reached double-digit FP just once in five games since Week 6 after posting 2/41 receiving on seven targets last week. Johnson has emerged as Glennon’s favorite target through two weeks as their second-team connection has been strong. Johnson has posted 8/162/1 receiving on 14 targets with Glennon while Laviska Shenault stumbled into a lucky TD last week. The Browns had three different WRs post 17+ FP last week.
  • Tyler Eifert is picking up momentum since Glennon took over at quarterback with consecutive double-digit performances. He has 9/61/1 receiving on 10 targets — including two red-zone looks — since Glennon took over the offense two weeks ago. Eifert last reached double-digit FP all the way back in Week 2 when he posted 3/36/1 receiving on six targets against this week’s opponent, the Titans. Tennessee has given up seven TDs to TEs this season and the seventh-most FPG (14.5) to the position.

Brolley’s Bets

Jacksonville Jaguars +7.5 (Staff Picks Lean)

Over 52 points (Best Bet)

A.J. Brown (Ten) over 57.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Arizona Cardinals (6-6, 5-7 ATS) at New York Giants (5-7, 8-4), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Cardinals 24.25, Giants 21.25
  • Spread/Total Movements: None of note.
  • Weather: 56 degrees, clear, 10 mph
  • Cardinals Injuries to Watch: WR DeAndre Hopkins (neck/back) RB Kenyan Drake (hip), LB De’Vondre Campbell (ankle), CB Johnathan Joseph (neck), S Jalen Thompson (ankle), ILB Isaiah Simmons (neck/back)
  • Giants Injuries to Watch: QB Daniel Jones (hamstring), LB Blake Martinez (back)

Cardinals Trends

  • The Cardinals have failed to cover in five straight games after opening the season with a 5-2 ATS record.
  • Arizona is 1-5 ATS in its last six games as a favorite.
  • The Cardinals are 8-4 toward unders and they’ve played under the total in six straight road games.
  • Kyler Murray hasn’t been the same player the last three weeks since he injured his throwing shoulder against the Seahawks in Week 11. Murray has also faced three of the NFL’s best coaching staffs in the Seahawks, the Patriots, and the Rams in his last three games so the league might also be coming up with ways to contain him in the pocket.
  • Kyler has run just five times in each of his last three games for a combined 61 rushing yards after he ran 10+ times for 60+ yards in each of his four previous games. Murray’s aDOT has rested under seven yards in each of his last three games, which includes his 6.2 aDOT against the Rams in Week 13, which has dropped his season average down to 7.8 yards. The Giants limited Russell Wilson to 263/1 passing and 7/45 rushing last week.
  • Christian Kirk has been hurt the most by the more conservative play by Murray. His production has completely dried up over the four weeks after he rode touchdown momentum to three straight games with 20+ FP in Weeks 6-9. He hit rock bottom against the Rams last week with just a two-yard catch on three targets, which gives him just 12/98/0 receiving on 21 targets in Weeks 10-13.
  • DeAndre Hopkins has just 18/158/1 receiving on 28 targets during Murray’s swoon the last three weeks. He’s also run into Jalen Ramsey and Stephon Gilmore the last two weeks, but his matchup doesn’t get much easier this week against James Bradberry. D.K. Metcalf managed 5/80 receiving on eight targets in this matchup last week.
  • Kenyan Drake has double-digit FP in four straight games, including 13+ FP since Murray stopped running and throwing the ball downfield. Drake has four TDs and 10/55 receiving in the last three weeks after posting four TDs and 7/38 receiving in his first eight games combined. Chris Carson posted 13/65 rushing and 3/45/1 receiving in this matchup last week

Giants Trends

  • It took the Seahawks nearly 54 minutes to find the end zone last week as this potent offense averaged just 4.7 yards per play against the Giants.
  • The Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
  • The Giants 8-3-1 toward unders, including a four-game under streak.
  • Wayne Gallman has been one of the best waiver wire gems this season. He’s posted 13+ FP in six straight games since taking over as the bell-cow back. Gallman failed to find the end zone last week for the first time in five games but he made up for it with a career-best 135 rushing yards. Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson combined for 121/2 rushing and 3/47 receiving against the Cardinals last week.
  • Daniel Jones will push to return to the lineup this week off of his hamstring injury. Colt McCoy played the role of game manager last week, completing 13/22 passes for 105 yards (4.8 YPA). The Cardinals have allowed 20+ FP to five consecutive QBs who can throw a football — Cam Newton had 6.0 FP in Week 12.
  • These Giants WRs would obviously have more juice if Jones is able to start this week. Golden Tate caught all four of his targets for 30 yards last week while Sterling Shepard managed 1/22 receiving on six targets and Darius Slayton caught his only target for 14 yards. Slayton has seen just a 12% target share since Shepard returned to the lineup while Tate has shown a pulse with four catches in each of his last four games. The Cardinals are allowing 15.6/173.0/1.1 receiving per game to WRs.
  • Evan Engram posted just 4/32 receiving with McCoy last week but he at least saw eight targets, which gives him 8+ targets in five of his last six games. Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett combined for 10/68/1 receiving against the Cardinals last week.

Brolley’s Bets

New York Giants +3 (Best Bet)

Wayne Gallman (NYG) over 55.5 rushing yards (Best Bet)

Minnesota Vikings (6-6, 6-6 ATS) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5, 6-6), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Vikings 23, Buccaneers 29.5
  • Spread/Total Movements: None of note.
  • Weather: 78 degrees, clear, 5 mph
  • Vikings Injuries to Watch: LB Eric Kendricks (calf), RB Alexander Mattison (appendectomy), TE Kyle Rudolph (foot),
  • Buccaneers Injuries to Watch: WR Mike Evans (hamstring), CB Jamel Dean (groin), WR Chris Godwin (finger), DL Steve McClendon (elbow)

Vikings Trends

  • The Vikings are 8-4 toward overs, including a 5-2 over streak in their last seven games.
  • Minnesota has covered four straight road games.
  • Dalvin Cook is averaging 31 opportunities per game in his last six games since returning from injury, including a season-high 38 touches last week for 179 yards with Alexander Mattison (appendectomy) out last week. The Buccaneers are allowing league-lows in YPC (3.0) and rushing yards per game (53.5), but they’re at least allowing 6.1 catches per game to RBs.
  • Kirk Cousins has 290+ yards and multiple TDs in four straight games, and he has 18+ FP in five straight games. The Buccaneers have allowed a league-high 28.0 FPG to QBs since Week 9 with Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff combining for 838/6 passing in their last two games.
  • Justin Jefferson has posted 70+ yards in four straight games, which helped him to reach 1000 yards in just 12 games. He’s the first Vikings rookie WR to reach 1000 yards since some guy named Randy Moss did it in 1998. Jefferson is second in the league in yards per route run (2.87), and he’ll go against a Buccaneers secondary that just got eviscerated on deep balls to Tyreek Hill to the tune of 13/269/3 receiving.
  • Adam Thielen returned to the lineup and he posted his third consecutive game with 20+ FP with his fifth TD in that span. He scored on yet another end-zone target last week to pad his league-best total of 11 TDs on 16 end-zone targets (68.8% conversion rate). The Bucs have given up 14 TDs to WRs this season.
  • Kyle Rudolph fell flat last week even with Irv Smith out of the lineup again with his groin injury. Rudolph had 11/131 receiving on 13 targets in consecutive games before failing to catch either of his targets last week. The Bucs have allowed eight catches to TEs in each of their last two games.

Buccaneers Trends

  • The Buccaneers are 4-1 toward overs in their last five games as a favorite.
  • Tom Brady has posted 19+ FP in four of his last six games with 275+ yards and multiple TD passes in those contests. He’s also attempted 38+ passes in each game over that span. The Vikings have faced an extremely easy QB schedule recently (Glennon/Teddy/Dalton/Foles/Stafford) as Andy Dalton is the only QB to reach 20+ against them since Week 8.
  • Mike Evans has 9+ targets in three straight and he’s scored in each of those games. He’s easily averaging a career-low in yards per game (51.1) but he needs two touchdowns in his final four games to set a new career-high as he’s already scored 11 times. The Vikings have allowed the second-most TDs to WRs with 19.
  • Chris Godwin had 10 pins removed from his finger, which he had surgery on after Week 7. He’s scored between 15-18 FP with 6+ catches in each of his last three games. He has 5+ catches in seven of his eight games this season. The Vikings allowed 4/61 receiving to D.J. Moore two weeks ago.
  • Antonio Brown managed just 2/11 receiving on three targets against the Chiefs before their bye, which ended a three-game where his targets climbed each week since joining the team. AB has yet to reach 70+ yards or to find the end zone in four games with the Bucs. The Vikings are giving up the fourth-most FPG to WRs (42.7).
  • Rob Gronkowski has 13+ FP in five of his last seven games and a combined 5.7 FP in his other two contests in that span. The Vikings gave up 10/86 receiving to Tyler Eifert and James O’Shaughnessy last week.
  • Ronald Jones has topped 11 touches in a game just once in his last five games, which came in their one decisive victory against the Panthers in Week 10 — they are favored by 6.5 points this week. He has down long TDs in that stretch has propelled him to 43.1 FP in two games and just a combined 14.8 FP in his other three games. The Vikings are giving up 4.4 YPC and a solid 100.8 rushing yards per game to RBs.
  • Leonard Fournette hasn’t reached 11+ FP in five straight games, and he has a combined 76 scrimmage yards over his last three games.

Brolley’s Bets

Minnesota Vikings +6.5 (Staff Picks Lean)

Ronald Jones (TB) over 59.5 rushing yards (Best Bet)

Justin Jefferson (Min) over 73.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Late Afternoon Games

Indianapolis Colts (8-4, 7-5 ATS) at Las Vegas Raiders (7-5, 7-5), 4:05 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Colts 26.75, Raiders 23.75
  • Spread/Total Movements: 2.5 to 3, 51.5 to 50.5
  • Weather: Dome
  • Colts Injuries to Watch: LT Anthony Castonzo (knee), OT Le’Raven Clark (Achilles, IR)
  • Raiders Injuries to Watch: RB Josh Jacobs (ankle), OG Gabe Jackson (knee), CB Damon Arnette (concussion), S Jeff Heath (concussion)

Colts Trends

  • The Colts have covered four straight games as a road favorite.
  • Indy is 6-2 toward overs in its last eight games.
  • Philip Rivers is averaging 39.0 attempts per game over the last five weeks, and he’s posted 18+ FP in three consecutive games with 285+ passing yards and multiple scores in each contest. The Colts will be down to their third-string option at left tackle with Anthony Castonzo (knee) and Le’Raven Clark (Achilles, IR) out this week. The Raiders just gave up 23.0 FP to the previously deceased Sam Darnold last week.
  • T.Y. Hilton is finally on the same page with Rivers after three months. He reached double-digit FP just once in his first nine games, but he’s now posted 18+ FP in consecutive games with 80+ yards and a touchdown. Calvin Ridley posted 6/50/1 receiving in this matchup two weeks ago.
  • Michael Pittman is back to being a secondary option with Hilton emerging the last two weeks. He’s managed just 7/74 receiving on 14 targets for 14.4 FP after scoring 15+ FP in both Weeks 10 and 11. The Raiders are giving up 13.2/169.5/1.2 receiving per game to WRs.
  • Jonathan Taylor had just three carries for 21 yards through the first 52 minutes against Houston’s terrible run defenses last week before Frank Reich finally let him take control of the game as he finished with 13/91 rushing. Overall, Taylor finished with 16/137/1 scrimmage on 48% of the snaps while the Colts continue to waste snaps and touches on Jordan Wilkins, who finished with 7/18 scrimmage on a 19% snap share. The Raiders got gashed by Ty Johnson, of all people, for 117/1 scrimmage as they’ve given up five rushing TDs in their last three games/
  • Nyheim Hines managed just 9/32/1 scrimmage on 33% of the snaps last week. He now has 3+ catches in four straight and in eight of his last 10 games. The Raiders have faced the fourth-most RB targets per game (7.9) and they’re giving up 5.5/43.3/.2 receiving per game to RBs.

Raiders Trends

  • The Raiders are 9-3 toward overs, including a 3-1-1 stretch toward overs in their last five home games.
  • Derek Carr scored a season-high 32.7 FP against the Jets thanks to his 46-yard touchdown to Henry Ruggs in the final seconds to pull a victory out of the jaws of defeat. The Colts have been a little more vulnerable against the pass recently as they’ve allowed 19+ FP to QBs in three straight games and 18+ FP in five of their last six games.
  • Darren Waller snapped out of a small funk by exploding for 13/200/2 receiving for 45 FP against the Jets in Week 13. Waller had a combined 197 receiving yards in Weeks 7-12 as he finished with 37 or fewer yards in four of his last five games before Week 13. The Colts have allowed a league-low one TD to TEs and just 4.1 receptions per game to the position.
  • Nelson Agholor has 4+ catches in three straight games, but he disappointed last week with just 4/38 receiving on 11 targets. Brandin Cooks posted 5/65 receiving on eight targets in this matchup last week.
  • Ruggs has three catches in three out of his last four games with 55+ receiving yards in consecutive games thanks to his game-winning score late against the Jets last week. Five different WRs have reached double-digit FP against the Colts in the last two weeks.
  • The Raiders clearly could’ve used Josh Jacobs on the field last week after Devontae Booker, Jalen Richard, and Theo Riddick combined for just 23/67 rushing (2.9 YPC) and 3/10 receiving against the Jets in Week 13. Jacobs averaged just 3.4 YPC in Weeks 11-12 against the Chiefs and the Falcons, and it looks like he’ll be a long shot to play this week. Booker posted 17/50 scrimmage last week on 33 snaps while Ricard managed 5/17 scrimmage on 32 snaps. David Johnson posted 10/44/1 rushing against the Colts last week with DeForest Buckner back in the lineup.

Brolley’s Bets

Las Vegas Raiders +3 (Staff Picks Lean)

Jonathan Taylor (Ind) over 52.5 rushing yards (Best Bet)

New York Jets (0-12, 4-8 ATS) at Seattle Seahawks (8-4, 6-6), 4:05 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Jets 16.75, Seahawks 30.25
  • Spread/Total Movements: None of note.
  • Weather: 46 degrees, 50% chance of rain, 5-10 mph
  • Jets Injuries to Watch: WR Denzel Mims (personal, out), WR Jamison Crowder (calf), RB Frank Gore (concussion), S Ashtyn Davis (foot), CB Bennett Jackson (hamstring), LB Jordan Jenkins (shoulder), OG Greg Van Roten (toe)
  • Seahawks Injuries to Watch: DE Carlos Dunlap (foot), RB Chris Carson (foot), RB Carlos Hyde (toe), RB Travis Homer (knee)

Jets Trends

  • The Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.
  • Sam Darnold is coming off his best game of the season with 186/2 passing with a season-best 8.1 YPA average and a rushing TD. Seattle’s defense is starting to heat up in the last four weeks as they’re allowing 222.8 passing yards per game with seven passing TDs in that span.
  • Denzel Mims will miss this week because of a family emergency, which would leave Breshad Perriman as the clear top option on the perimeter. He managed just a 22-yard catch on four targets against Las Vegas last week. They haven’t allowed a perimeter WR to reach double-digit FP in consecutive games.
  • Jamison Crowder had just 6/73/1 receiving on 10 targets in three full games with both Perriman and Mims on the field together. That changed in Week 13 against the Raiders as he busted out for 5/47/2 receiving on seven targets with both of his scores coming from inside the 10-yard line. Golden Tate led the Giants WRs last week with 4/30 receiving with Colt McCoy throwing for just 105 yards.
  • Frank Gore saw just one carry before he suffered a concussion, which opened the door for Ty Johnson to take over in this backfield. He posted 22/104/1 rushing and 2/13 receiving on a 63% snap share against the Raiders. Wayne Gallman and Alfred Morris just ripped the Seahawks for a combined 24/174/1 rushing.

Seahawks Trends

  • The Seahawks have failed to cover in four of their last five games.
  • It took the Seahawks nearly 54 minutes to find the end zone last week as this potent offense averaged just 4.7 yards per play against the Giants.
  • Seattle hasn’t reached 30+ points in four straight games after doing it in seven of its first eight games. They’ve played under the total in each of the last four games.
  • The Jets fired blitz-happy DC Gregg Williams this week.
  • Russell Wilson is averaging just 16.1 FPG over his last four games with just four TDs in that span after throwing for 4+ TDs in four of his first eight games. The Jets could be the remedy that he needs as they’ve allowed 24+ FP in four out of their last five games with 13 passing TDs and six rushing TDs allowed in that span.
  • D.K. Metcalf has 15/257 receiving on 23 targets in the last two weeks, which gives him 13+ FP in 10 of his 12 games. The Jets are allowing a generous 9.1 YPT and DeVante Parker posted 8/119 receiving on 14 targets in this matchup.
  • Tyler Lockett hasn’t hit 70+ receiving yards in his last six games since hitting 200 yards in Week 7, with just double-digit FP in just three of those contests. The Jets are giving up the third-most receiving yards per game (195.8) and the fifth-most receptions per game (15.0).
  • Chris Carson saw his snaps (25 to 45), touches (10 to 16), and scrimmage yards (59/1 to 110/1) grow in his second week back from his foot injury. Carson has scored in six of his seven full contests this season (8 total TDs) and he now has more receiving TDs in 2020 (4) than he had in his first three seasons (3). The Jets have allowed just one TD to RBs in their last seven games after allowing seven scores in their first five games.

Brolley’s Bets

Seattle Seahawks -13.5 (Staff Picks Lean)

D.K. Metcalf (Sea) over 80.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Green Bay Packers (9- 3, 8-4 ATS) at Detroit Lions (5-7, 5-7), 4:25 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Packers 31.25, Lions 23.75
  • Spread/Total Movements: None of note.
  • Weather: Dome
  • Packers Injuries to Watch: TE Jace Sternberger (concussion)
  • Lions Injuries to Watch: WR Kenny Golladay (hip), RB D’Andre Swift (illness), CB Jeff Okudah (groin)

Packers Trends

  • The Packers have covered consecutive home games after reaching 30+ points for the ninth time in 12 tries last week.
  • Green Bay is 8-4 toward overs.
  • The Packers have played over the total in four straight NFC North games.
  • The Packers beat the Lions 42-21 in Week 2 as seven-point home favorites in a game totaled at 51 points.
  • Aaron Rodgers has thrown for three TDs in six of his last seven games, and he has 23+ FP in each of those contests. He posted just 240/2 passing against the Lions in Week 2 with their rushing attack doing most of the work for their 42 points.
  • Davante Adams has been on the other end of this scoring barrage as he’s scored in seven straight games with 11 scores total in that span — he has 18+ FP in every game in that span. Adams is the only receiver averaging more than three yards per route run this season with his 3.02 YPRR average. Adams posted 3/36 receiving before leaving early against the Lions the last time they played. Allen Robinson posted 6/75 receiving in this matchup last week.
  • Allen Lazard is starting to heat up a bit with 4/23/1 receiving and 3/50 in the last two weeks while Marquez Valdes-Scantling hasn’t caught a pass in the last two weeks. The Lions are giving up 194.1 receiving yards (4th-most) and 14.8 catches per game (6th-most) to WRs.
  • Robert Tonyan is simmering once again with touchdown receptions and 4+ catches in three straight games, which has helped him to 13+ FP in each of those contests. He posted 2/25/1 receiving in his first game in this matchup back in Week 2, and the Lions just allowed 5/37/1 receiving.
  • Aaron Jones gets the best matchup for RBs this week. He posted a ridiculous 45.6 FP in this matchup in Week 2 with 236/3 scrimmage. Jones scored just his second TD in his fifth game back after his calf injury and it took a 77-yard touchdown run late. Jones has just one carry inside the five-yard line in the last five weeks while Adams has 14 red-zone targets in that same span.

Lions Trends

  • Detroit is 8-4 toward overs, including a 5-1 stretch toward overs in their last six games.
  • The Lions 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
  • Matthew Stafford got back to his 2019 ways after the Lions fired Matt Patricia before Week 13. Stafford averaged a deep pass (20+ yards) on just 10.1% of his passes through Week 12 after he had a 19.2% deep ball rate last season. With Darrell Bevell freed from Patricia’s rule, Stafford attempted deep balls at a 21.4% rate, which helped him to throw for 402 yards with a 9.6 YPA average against one of the league’s better defenses. Stafford posted 244/2 passing in this matchup back in Week 2.
  • Kenny Golladay is seemingly getting no closer to a return off of the hip injury he initially suffered in Week 8. Golladay seems content to head to free agency after playing just four-plus games and the Lions also seem in no rush to get him back on the field with nothing to play for.
  • With Golladay missing again, Marvin Jones posted 8/116/1 receiving on 12 targets against the Bears in Week 13. Marvin is now averaging 5.3/65.5/.8 receiving on 8.5 targets per game in the last six weeks since Golladay initially suffered his hip injury. Jones averaged just 2.8/37.0/0 receiving and 4.0 targets per game in four contests with Golladay in the lineup in Weeks 3-7. Jones managed just 4/23/1 receiving on six targets in this matchup in Week 2 with Golladay out of the lineup.
  • T.J. Hockenson posted 7/84 receiving on nine targets against the Bears in Week 13. Hockenson is now averaging 5.0/59.7/.2 receiving on 7.7 targets per game in the last six weeks since Golladay initially suffered his hip injury. Hockenson averaged just 3.3/34.5/.8 receiving and 5.5 targets per game in four games with Golladay in the lineup in Weeks 3-7. Hockenson caught all four of his targets for 62 yards against the Packers in Week 2.
  • It’s been a frustrating couple of weeks for D’Andre Swift after it looked like the Lions had finally let the cat out of the bag against the Football Team in Week 10. He posted career-highs in carries (16), catches (5), and scrimmage yards (149) against a tough Washington front seven, but he hasn’t taken the field since then.
  • If Swift is able to return this week, he’s unlikely to step right back into the bell-cow role he occupied in Week 10 because of his three-week absence. Adrian Peterson is likely to be a thorn in his side down the stretch, especially at the goal line as he’s scored four touchdowns in the three games that Swift has missed. The Packers are giving up 148.4 scrimmage yards to RBs, including 143/1 scrimmage to David Montgomery two weeks ago.

Brolley’s Bets

Green Bay Packers -7.5 (Staff Picks Lean)

Atlanta Falcons (4-8, 5-7 ATS) at Los Angeles Chargers (3-9, 5-7), 4:25 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Falcons 26, Chargers 23.5
  • Spread/Total Movements: None of note.
  • Weather: Dome
  • Falcons Injuries to Watch: WR Julio Jones (hamstring, out), RB Todd Gurley (knee), RB Ito Smith (neck), TE Hayden Hurst (ankle), S Ricardo Allen (concussion), OG James Carpenter (groin)
  • Chargers Injuries to Watch: LB Denzel Perryman (back), RB Joshua Kelley (foot), CB Chris Harris (foot), RB Troymaine Pope (neck)

Falcons Trends

  • The Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
  • Atlanta is 5-1 toward unders in their last six games.
  • Matt Ryan managed just 13.9 FP even with Julio Jones healthy last week as he’s now fallen before 15 FP in three straight games since their bye. The Patriots QBs torched the Chargers for nearly 30 FP last week but most of that production came from Cam Newton’s two rushing TDs. The Chargers are giving up 1.9 TDs per game to QBs.
  • Julio had a 26% target share (10 targets) and he ran a route on every one of Ryan’s 42 dropbacks last week, which he turned into 6/94 receiving on 10 targets. He’s now posted 5+ catches and 15+ FP in each of his last five full games, but it came out Friday morning that he’ll sit this week with his lingering hamstring injury. Christian Blake will see an uptick in playing time while Russell Gage should be more active as a receiver.
  • Calvin Ridley continues to be a steady option with 14-17 FP in each of his last three games since their Week 10 bye. The Chargers contained Stefon Diggs to 7/39 in this matchup two weeks ago, and they’re giving up just 145.1 receiving yards per game (4th-fewest).
  • Hayden Hurst has totaled fewer than 10 FP in his last three games combined with just 5/57 receiving on 14 targets. The Chargers are giving up the second-most TDs per game to TEs (.8) but just the eighth-fewest receiving yards per game (42.3).
  • This backfield has become a complete mess with Todd Gurley predictably coming back to earth since his touchdowns have dried up. Brian Hill is the healthiest back with Todd Gurley (knee) and Ito Smith (neck) limited in practice early in the week. The Chargers are giving up a generous 138.7 scrimmage yards to RBs.

Chargers Trends

  • The Chargers have dropped six straight games against the spread.
  • The Chargers allowed three special teams touchdowns to the Patriots last week.
  • Los Angeles has played under the total in consecutive games after a 7-0 run toward overs in Weeks 4-11.
  • Justin Herbert has hit a bit of a wall as he’s averaged 6.1 YPA or worse in three of his last fourth starts with his one strong game coming against a lowly Jets secondary. He’s also averaged 51.3 attempts per game in the last three weeks but he’s turned in just four touchdowns (2.6% TD rate). The Falcons wrecked Derek Carr in Week 12, forcing four turnovers, but Taysom Hill has posted 49.8 FP in two meetings in Weeks 11 and 13 since the Falcons came out of their bye in Week 10.
  • Keenan Allen’s five-game TD streak came to an end last week, and he’s now fallen under 50 yards in three of the four games that Herbert has struggled in over the last month. Michael Thomas posted 9/105 receiving in this matchup last week.
  • Mike Williams hasn’t reached double-digit FP in the three games that Herbert has struggled in over the last month, but he did at least match a season-high with nine targets last week. The Falcons are allowing a generous 14.0 YPR to WRs.
  • Hunter Henry finally got rolling in Weeks 10-12 with 13+ FP in three consecutive games before falling flat with just a five-yard catch on two targets last week. Jared Cook posted 3/28/1 receiving in this matchup last week, and the Falcons are giving up the second-most TDs per game (.8) and the eighth-most receiving yards per game (56.8) to TEs.
  • Austin Ekeler managed just 12/68 scrimmage last week after posting 25/129 in his first game back in Week 12. The Falcons have been stingy against opposing RBs all season, allowing just 103.0 scrimmage yards per game to RBs, but they’re at least giving 5.3 catches per game to RBs. Alvin Kamara posted 97/1 scrimmage in this matchup last week.

Brolley’s Bets

Atlanta Falcons -2.5 (Staff Picks Lean)

Keenan Allen (LAC) over 69.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

New Orleans Saints (10-2, 7-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-8-1, 4-8 ATS), 4:25 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Saints 25, Eagles 18
  • Spread/Total Movements: 6.5 to 7, 45.5 to 43
  • Weather: 52 degrees, clear, 5 mph
  • Saints Injuries to Watch: RB Latavius Murray (knee), DT Malcom Brown (shoulder), CB Patrick Robinson (hamstring), DT David Onyemata (illness)
  • Eagles Injuries to Watch: CB Darius Slay (knee), DE Derek Barnett (pelvis), OT Jason Peters (toe)

Saints Trends

  • New Orleans has won and covered eight straight games without Drew Brees in the lineup over the last two seasons.
  • The Saints won their ninth consecutive game after a 1-2 start to the season and they became the first NFC team to clinch a playoff berth.
  • New Orleans has covered and played under the total in five straight games.
  • Taysom Hill has posted 18+ FP in each of his first three starts after running for a career-high 83 yards while also throwing for his first two touchdowns last week against the Falcons. The Eagles have had issues against mobile QBs like Lamar Jackson (108/1 rushing) and Daniel Jones (156/1 in two games) this season.
  • This could be a secondary to pick on this week if top CB Darius Slay (knee) can’t play and slow down Michael Thomas, who has been heating up with Taysom. Thomas has seen a 37% target share with Hill as he has 22/259 receiving on 29 targets even with a game against the Broncos thrown in there in which the Saints turtled on the ball. Davante Adams posted 10/121/2 receiving in this matchup last week.
  • Jared Cooks is indeed still alive after he posted 3/28/1 receiving on five targets last week after managing just 1/6 receiving on five targets in Weeks 10-12. Robert Tonyan posted 4/39/1 receiving in this matchup last week.
  • Alvin Kamara had his best performance with Hill at QB as he recorded 17/87/1 scrimmage last week. He’s still seen just 8% of the targets with Hill after seeing a 26% target share with Brees as Kamara has just 3/7 receiving in three games with Hill. Aided by a late 77-yard TD run, Aaron Jones posted 18/148/1 scrimmage against the Eagles last week.
  • Latavius Murray saw just seven touches for 19 scrimmage yards last week posting 34/211/2 scrimmage in his first two games with Taysom. The Eagles are allowing 3.7 YPC to RBs this season.

Eagles Trends

  • The Eagles’ offense muscled just three points in the first 52 minutes against the Packers last week.
  • Philly is 1-3 ATS in its last four games.
  • The Eagles have played under the total in six straight games and they’re 9-3 toward unders this season.
  • The Eagles have made the switch from Carson Wentz to Jalen Hurts. The rookie posted 5/29 rushing in just 22 minutes of action last week. He also showed some potential as a passer with his ability to extend plays with his legs as he completed 5/12 passes for 109 yards, one TD, and one INT with the Packers playing soft with a big lead. It’s not out of the question that Doug Pederson could play some QB musical chairs with Hurts and Wentz this week, which would be less than ideal. The Saints haven’t allowed multiple passing TDs since Week 8, and they’ve allowed just one QB rushing TD although they haven’t faced a mobile QB quite like Hurts this season.
  • Dallas Goedert ran more routes (28 to 19) and posted more production (5/66 receiving to 2/31) than Zach Ertz in his return to the lineup — each player saw two targets from Hurts last week. Goedert has posted 5+ catches and 65+ yards in three straight games but those performances came mostly with Wentz. The Saints have been stingy to TEs recently with Hayden Hurst and Noah Fant combining for just 2/22 receiving on eight targets over the last three games against New Orleans.
  • Good luck with these Eagles WRs this week in Hurts’ first start. Jalen Reagor (71% snap share), Greg Ward (71%), Alshon Jeffery (58%), Travis Fulgham (40%), and John Hightower (29%) are all rotating in this limited passing attack. Ward was the only wide receiver to post more than a catch last week. The Saints are allowing 11.9/165.1/1.1 receiving per game to WRs.
  • Miles Sanders played a season-low 57% of the snaps last week (in his full games), which he turned into just 10/31 scrimmage — Boston Scott and Jordan Howard combined for 6/28. Sanders has just 18/53 scrimmage in the last two weeks and he has the toughest matchup in the league this week against a Saints defense that’s allowing just 93.8/.5 scrimmage per game to RBs.

Brolley’s Bets

New Orleans Saints -6.5 (Best Bet)

Jalen Hurts (Phi) over 39.5 rushing yards (Best Bet)

Washington Football Team (5-7, 7-5 ATS) vs. San Francisco 49ers (5-7, 5-7), Glendale, Ariz., 4:25 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Washington 20.25, 49ers 23.25
  • Spread/Total Movements: 4 to 3
  • Weather: Dome
  • Washington Injuries to Watch: RB Antonio Gibson (toe), WR Terry McLaurin (ankle), RG Brandon Scherff (calf), RT Morgan Moses (groin)
  • 49ers Injuries to Watch: WR Deebo Samuel (foot), RG Tom Compton (concussion), DT D.J. Jones (ankle),

Washington Trends

  • The Football Team ended Pittsburgh’s perfect season with a stunning 23-17 victory as six-point road underdogs after erasing a 14-point deficit.
  • Washington is 5-2 ATS in its last seven games.
  • The Football Team in 7-4-1 toward unders, including a 6-2 run toward unders
  • Alex Smith has yet to top 16 FP in any of his five games since taking over the job even with 46 and 55 attempts in two of those games. He has just four TD passes in that span and he’s yet to throw for multiple scores in a game The 49ers have allowed 4 TD passes in three of their last five games, but Smith isn’t the same caliber player as Allen/Rodgers/Russell.
  • Terry McLaurin got shut down by the Steelers last week as he posted a season-worst 2/14 receiving on six targets, which was just the second time this season that he finished with fewer than 11 FP. Stefon Diggs caught all 10 of his targets for 92 yards in this matchup last week.
  • Logan Thomas was clearly the biggest beneficiary from the extra attention the Steelers paid to McLaurin last week as he caught all nine of his targets for 98 yards and a touchdown — Cam Sims also had 5/92 receiving. Thomas now has 10+ FP in three of his last four games with 3+ catches in those contests. Thomas gets the toughest matchup for TEs this week as the 49ers are allowing just 3.3/31.4/.3 receiving per game to the position.
  • The Football Team will be down to Peyton Barber as the lead runner with J.D. McKissic sticking in his typical passing-back role with Antonio Gibson (toe) likely to miss the next couple of weeks. Barber is averaging just 2.7 YPC this season but he has stumbled into the end zone three times — the 49ers have allowed six rushing TDs.
  • McKissic is always a player to target when Washington could play in a negative game script, which includes this week with the Football Team entering the week as three-point underdogs. He caught all 10 of his targets for 70 yards last week with the Football Team playing from behind for most of the game.

49ers Trends

  • The 49ers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
  • The 49ers are using committee with Jeff Wilson leading the way with a 46% snap share and 9/59 scrimmage followed by Raheem Mostert (44%, 9/42), Tevin Coleman (7%, 2/-11), and Jerick McKinnon (3%, no touches). The Football Team is allowing just 18.4 FPG (3rd-fewest) with just five rushing TDs to RBs.
  • Nick Mullens needed some garbage-time production to get his first game with 20+ FP and multiple TD passes last week against the Bills. Washington is third in sack rate (8.3%) this season while Mullens has struggled with pressure. He’s taken 12 sacks and thrown five INTs while averaging just 4.9 YPA when under pressure.
  • HC Kyle Shanahan oddly didn’t get Deebo Samuel involved until late against the Bills, but Deebo still got 6/73 receiving on nine targets last week. Samuel has now posted 5+ catches and 65+ yards in four straight games, and he’s seen 22 targets in the last two weeks. Washington is allowing just 12.5 catches per game and 149.4 receiving yards per game to WRs.
  • Brandon Aiyuk returned to the lineup last week and he picked up right where he left off. He has 5+ catches, 75+ yards, and 17+ FP in four straight games with three TDs in that span. The Football Team has given up 10 TDs to WRs, including scores to Diontae Johnson and James Washington last week.
  • Jordan Reed scored a late garbage-time touchdown last week to give him 11+ FP in two of his last three games. He’s managed 10/112/1 receiving on 16 targets while averaging 23.6 routes per game over the last three games. He’ll be in a revenge spot this week and his old team is allowing a middle-of-the-road 4.9/50.6/.5 receiving per game to TEs.

Brolley’s Bets

Washington Football Team +3.5 (Staff Picks Lean)

Brandon Aiyuk (SF) over 52.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Sunday Night Football

Pittsburgh Steelers (11-1, 8-4 ATS) at Buffalo Bills (9-3, 7-5), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Steelers 22.75, Bills 25.25
  • Spread/Total Movements: Steelers -2.5 to Bills -2.5, 47 to 48
  • Weather: 34 degrees, 40% chance of rain, 10-15 mph
  • Steelers Injuries to Watch: CB Joe Haden (concussion), LB Robert Spillane (knee), WR Chase Claypool (illness)
  • Bills Injuries to Watch: DL Quinton Jefferson (hip), RG Jon Feliciano (knee)

Steelers Trends

  • The Steelers blew a 14+ point lead last week for just the second time in Ben Roethlisberger’s 17 seasons. Pittsburgh has previously been 109-1-1 with 14+ point leads with Big Ben.
  • Pittsburgh owns an 8-4 ATS record but they’ve failed to cover in consecutive games.
  • The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.
  • Pittsburgh is 4-0-1 toward unders in its last five games.
  • The Steelers will get James Conner back this week, and they need to get their broken running game going against a Bills run defense that’s allowing a generous 4.6 YPC. Pittsburgh has failed to reach 70 rushing yards in six of their last seven games after averaging 136.8 rushing yards per game in their first five games.
  • Ben Roethlisberger is averaging 50 attempts per game over the last three weeks but just 5.6 YPA with five TDs and three INTs. Big Ben’s aDOT is now sitting at just 7.0 yards and the Bills have faced the lowest aDOT in the league at 7.0 yards. Buffalo has allowed six different QBs to throw for 300+ yards this season, including three in their last four games (Mullens/Herbert/Russell).
  • Diontae Johnson is one of the best WRs after the catch with his 5.1 YAC average (12th), but his aggressiveness after the catch has led to a league-leading 10 drops. He needs to be careful after Mike Tomlin threatened to bench guys who drop the ball — James Washington’s role grew last week at the expense of Chase Claypool. Deebo Samuel posted 6/73 receiving in this matchup last week.
  • Claypool saw an 11-week low 44% snap share after Big Ben lobbied for more opportunities for Washington before Week 13. Claypool posted 2/38 receiving on four targets, which was his worst fantasy output since Week 7, while Washington posted 2/80/1 receiving. Brandon Aiyuk posted 5/95/1 receiving in this matchup last week.
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster has turned into a glorified running back with 15 catches for a ridiculous 65/1 receiving and a 4.3 YPR average in the last two weeks. He gets the best matchup this week away from Tre’Davious White in the slot, and Keenan Allen posted 4/40/1 receiving in this matchup two weeks ago.
  • Eric Ebron is the other player who needs to be careful with drops as he’s leading all TEs with six drops. He’s posted 11+ FP in six of his last seven games with 50+ receiving yards or a TD in each of those six games. The Bills have given up solid games to Jordan Reed (3/32/1 receiving) and Hunter Henry (7/67) in the last two weeks.

Bills Trends

  • The Bills have covered four straight games after a four-game ATS losing streak in Weeks 5-8.
  • The Bills are 9-3 toward overs, including a 4-1 run toward overs.
  • Josh Allen had arguably his best professional performance on MNF last week. He completed 32/40 passes for 375 yards (9.4 YPA) and four TDs against the 49ers. Allen has posted 29+ FP in three of his last four games, but he’ll be tested this week against a defense that’s yet to allow 20+ FP to any quarterback.
  • Stefon Diggs caught all 10 of his targets last week for 92 yards, which gives him 10+ FP in every game this season. The only complaint with Diggs is that he’s scored just once one TD in his last six games with just four TDs overall. He’s seen 8+ targets in eight straight games and he has 6+ catches in nine straight contests. The Steelers limited Terry McLaurin to just 2/14 receiving last week and Joe Haden could have a difficult time playing this week after suffering a concussion on Monday night.
  • Cole Beasley has finished with 105+ receiving yards and 9+ catches in three of his last six games while finishing with three or fewer catches and fewer than 40 yards in his other three games in that span.
  • Gabriel Davis has 15+ FP in each of his last two games with John Brown (ankle, IR) out of the lineup as he has a combined 6/145/2 receiving on eight targets. Cam Sims did go wild against the Steelers last week with 5/92 receiving with Pittsburgh paying extra attention to McLaurin and with Steven Nelson out of the lineup — he’s expected to play this week.
  • Devin Singletary owned a 62-11 advantage in snaps last week after Zack Moss lost an early fumble at his own goal line. Singletary has strung together 11+ FP in each of the last two games with 29/143 rushing and 6/42 receiving. Moss has managed just 11.2 FP combined in the last two weeks with 12/68 rushing and 3/14 receiving. The Steelers are giving up just 101.9 scrimmage yards per game to RBs

Brolley’s Bets

Buffalo Bills +2.5 (Best Bet)

James Washington (Pit) over 17.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Tom is a Senior Writer at Fantasy Points who specializes in fantasy and betting analysis. He’ll be helping you to navigate the waiver wire and manage your fantasy teams while also keeping our betting content robust all year long, especially during the season. Tom's Best Bets against the spread won at 61.5% clip in 2019 and he was a perfect 8-0 on his Best Bets for season win totals in 2020.