Best Bets: Week 14

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Best Bets: Week 14

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Welcome to Fantasy Points Best Bets. This will be the main hub for our staff’s favorite NFL bets throughout the season. Our staff will give their favorite spread, total, and player prop bets every week during the season through the Super Bowl. Be sure to check back regularly before kickoff to see what wagers our crew has lined up for the week ahead.

Tom Brolley

Game Picks

Best Bets ATS Record: 35-34-2 (-2.48 units); W14: 2-3 (-1.18 units)

Overall ATS Record: 112-93-2 (54.6%); W14: 6-9 (40%)

Totals Record: 4-6 (-2.13 units); W14: 0-1 (-1 units)

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (over 52, Caesars)

The Titans have been an over team dating back to when Ryan Tannehill became the starter in 2019, and they’re now 9-2-1 toward overs this season. This week they’ll go against a Jaguars defense that’s allowing the most yards per game (416.0) and the fourth-most points per game (29.3). On the other side of the ball, the Browns eviscerated the Titans defense in the first half last week to the tune of 38 points and 344 total yards for a per play average of 8.0 yards. Tennessee’s defense can’t stop anyone and the Jaguars have been competitive recently with covers in four of their last five games so they should be able to put up some points on this bad defense. Mike Glennon has also been throwing downfield with reckless abandon, which is always great for overs. He’s leading the league with a staggering 20.8% deep-ball rate, which could lead to some big plays against this awful secondary. The Jags almost knocked off the Titans back in Week 2 with Gardner Minshew at quarterback as they lost 33-30 as seven-point road underdogs in a game totaled at 44.5 points. I like betting this total over the number up to 54 and I’m also going to be doing a smaller parlay on the Jaguars +7.5 with the over in this game. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units (Dec. 11)

Baltimore Ravens (+.5, FoxBet) at Cleveland Browns

The Ravens smoked the Browns 38-6 back in the season opener as seven-point home favorites and now here we are in December and the Browns are the team that’s laying points to the Ravens. These teams have obviously changed some since Week 1 but I still think this Ravens squad is the better team, and their defense is the best individual group that will take the field this week. The Ravens’ season is on the line every week from here on out as they need to keep winning to stay in the AFC playoff race. I’m expecting a strong effort from the team with their backs up against the wall and that’s been in tough spots before. We’ll see how the Browns respond to all the positive publicity they’ve received this week as this inexperienced team is in the thick of the AFC North race. The last time the Browns got pumped up this season was when they were 4-1 heading into their showdown with the Steelers in Week 6, and that game ended in a 38-7 loss. I’m taking the team that’s been in a big game before and the team that I think is just flat out better this week. The wrong team is favored in this one and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Ravens close as favorites. I’d be comfortable laying anything less than a field goal with the Ravens this week. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units (Dec. 9)

Miami Dolphins (+7.5, FanDuel) vs. Kansas City Chiefs

I always feel a bit queasy stepping in front of the Chiefs, but the betting markets continue to inflate Kansas City’s lines despite a recent downturn in ATS performance. The Chiefs have failed to cover in four straight games as they’ve won each of their last four games in one-score affairs. Meanwhile, the markets continue to get it wrong when it comes to Brian Flores’ team. They’ve been money-making machines since the second half of last season, and they’ve covered spreads in seven of their last eight games in 2020. Tua Tagovailoa is also coming off his best pro performance and I loved the fight that the Dolphins showed last week against a Bengals team that showed up to Miami looking to cause chaos. The Dolphins may not win this week but they’re going to give a maximum effort, which is all you can ask for from a team getting north of a touchdown. I don’t know if this line is going to close under a touchdown, but I think the Dolphins will see enough support this week to close this line at seven points. I’m grabbing the hook now just in case this game lands on a touchdown difference because I don’t think this line will climb higher. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units (Dec. 8)

New York Giants (+3, FanDuel) vs. Arizona Cardinals

I’m grabbing this line at its absolute max as most other shops already have this line at +2.5. It appears that Daniel Jones has a chance to play this week off of his hamstring injury, which is going to push this line closer to a pick-em. This line would likely close in the 2.5 to 3 point range if Colt McCoy starts again this week so I’m fine taking the bet now to get the value just in case Jones plays. I have these teams at about a pick-em when factoring in homefield advantage, but I don’t think the betting market has caught up to the reality that Kyler Murray simply hasn’t been the same player since Week 11. He suffered a throwing shoulder injury in that contest and his running and his downfield passing has been neutralized since then. He’s also gone against three of the best coaching staffs in the Seahawks, the Patriots, and the Rams in the last three weeks, and I’m sure Joe Judge and company have been taking notes. DeAndre Hopkins is the one skill player that frightens me betting against the Cardinals, but big CB James Bradberry should be up to the task after he kept D.K. Metcalf under control last week. The Cardinals have dropped five straight games against the spread while the Giants have covered in five of their last six games and in seven of their past nine games. Oddsmakers haven’t caught up to the current realities for both teams so grab the points with the Giants this week. Risk one unit at -115 to win .87 units (Dec. 9)

New Orleans Saints (-6.5, Caesars) at Philadelphia Eagles

I broke this game down as part of my Week 14 Opening Line Report. The betting markets continue to undervalue the Saints when Drew Brees is out of the lineup. New Orleans has now won and covered eight straight games without Brees in the lineup over the last two seasons. Seattle closed as 6.5-point road favorites against the Eagles two weeks ago, and they would’ve easily covered if not for an improbable Hail Mary completion and a two-point completion. I have the Saints power rated as the best team in the NFC even with Taysom Hill in the lineup, and I can only see New Orleans finishing as seven-point favorites or better this week. The Eagles will be enduring more quarterback drama this week and this would be a difficult first starting spot for Jalen Hurts this week against a Saints defense that’s the second-best defensive unit in the league behind Pittsburgh. Grab the Saints while they’re favored by less than a touchdown this week. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units (Dec. 7)

Buffalo Bills (+2.5, Caesars) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

I broke this game down as part of my Week 14 Opening Line Report. These teams have yet to play in Week 13, as of this writing, so a lot could change, but I have this line projected closer to a pick-em contest. The Steelers could be in a tough spot on Sunday Night Football as they potentially try to keep their perfect season alive playing their third game in 12 days after playing two physical defenses in Baltimore and Washington. The Bills are back to being undervalued in the betting markets as they’ve covered three straight games after a four-game ATS losing streak in Weeks 5-8. The Bills went from being three-point favorites to being one-point underdogs for their Monday night contest with the 49ers. We’ll see how the Monday night games play out in Week 13, but I’m grabbing the extra points now with the Bills since I don’t think this line will reach a full field goal, barring a major injury or a blow out by the 49ers. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units (Dec. 7)

Houston Texans (-1.5, DraftKings) at Chicago Bears

I broke this game down as part of my Week 14 Opening Line Report. The Texans are coming off a heartbreaking loss to the Colts last week as they were in a position to win their third straight game and to cover their fourth consecutive spread. Either way, this team is clearly still fighting for Deshaun Watson and Romeo Crennel, and I haven’t seen that same fight from the Bears in recent weeks as their quarterback situation has finally beaten this team down. Mitchell Trubisky gave away a victory against a lifeless Lions team that the Texans absolutely waxed, 41-25, on Thanksgiving Day two weeks ago. The Bears have failed to cover in four straight games and they’ve lost five straight games outright to fall out of serious playoff contention. Houston closed as three-point road favorites against the Lions in Week 12, and I see this line closing in that same -3 to -3.5 point range so grab the Texans now while the line is short. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units (Dec. 7)

Player Props

Record: 122-93 (+21.58 units); W13: 11-5 (+5.44 units)

All one-unit wagers unless otherwise noted.

  • Van Jefferson (LAR) over 13.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM) (L)

  • Cam Newton (NE) under 185.5 passing yards (+100, DraftKings) (W)

  • Jalen Hurts (Phi) over 39.5 rushing yards (-112, DraftKings) (W)

  • Jonathan Taylor (Ind) over 52.5 rushing yards (-112, DraftKings) (W)

  • Keenan Allen (LAC) over 69.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings) (L)

  • A.J. Brown (Ten) over 57.5 receiving yards (-118, DraftKings) (W)

  • Ronald Jones (TB) over 59.5 rushing yards (-110, FanDuel) (W)

  • Justin Jefferson (Min) over 73.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings) (L)

  • Brandon Aiyuk (SF) over 52.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel) (W)

  • Dalton Schultz (Dal) over 3.5 receptions (-106, DraftKings) (L)

  • Travis Kelce (KC) over 6.5 receptions (+115, FanDuel) (W)

  • Cole Kmet (Chi) over 2.5 receptions (+112, DraftKings) (W)

  • David Montgomery (Chi) over 65.5 rushing yards (-110, FanDuel) (W)

  • Wayne Gallman (NYG) over 55.5 rushing yards (-112, DraftKings) (W)

  • D.K. Metcalf (Sea) over 80.5 receiving yards (-110, BetMGM) (L)

  • James Washington (Pit) over 17.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel) (W)

  • Nick Chubb (Cle) over 86.5 rushing + receiving yards (-113, FanDuel)

Tom is a Senior Writer at Fantasy Points who specializes in fantasy and betting analysis. He’ll be helping you to navigate the waiver wire and manage your fantasy teams while also keeping our betting content robust all year long, especially during the season. Tom's Best Bets against the spread won at 61.5% clip in 2019 and he was a perfect 8-0 on his Best Bets for season win totals in 2020.