Week 14 MNF Trends & Picks


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Week 14 MNF Trends & Picks

Examining trends for each team can help you make better-informed gambling and fantasy decisions. It’s never wise to bet a game based on a single trend and it’s also never wise to back off a wager based on a single trend, either. With that said, trends can point you in the right direction by corroborating stats and information you’ve gathered or they can make you reconsider making a bad wager based on flimsy data. I’ve gone game-by-game and compiled the most relevant trends for each team heading into this week’s contests. I’ve included any bets or leans I have for each game at the end of each writeup. Good luck with your wagers!

Monday Night Football

Baltimore Ravens (7-5, 6-6 ATS) at Cleveland Browns (9-3, 5-7), 8:15 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Ravens 24.25, Browns 21.25

  • Spread/Total Movements: Browns -.5 to Ravens -3, 46.5 to 45.5

  • Weather: 30 degrees, clear, 15 mph

  • Ravens Injuries to Watch: DE Calais Campbell (calf), WR Dez Bryant (COVID-19)

  • Browns Injuries to Watch: CB Denzel Ward (calf), TE Austin Hooper (neck), WR KhaDarel Hodge (hamstring)

Ravens Trends

  • The Ravens beat the Browns 38-6 in the season opener as seven-point home favorites in a game totaled at 47 points.

  • Baltimore is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 games in this series.

  • These teams are 6-2 toward unders in the eight games in this series.

  • The Ravens have covered consecutive spreads after a 2-6 ATS dry spell in Weeks 3-11.

  • Baltimore’s running game racked up 294/2 rushing on a 7.9 YPC average with Lamar Jackson back at the trigger last week. He’s coming off his second-best fantasy performance of the season with 107/2 passing and 94/1 rushing against the Cowboys. Lamar managed 204/1 passing and 54 rushing yards against the Browns earlier this season.

  • J.K. Dobbins led the backfield last week with 21 snaps and 11/71/1 scrimmage followed by Gus Edwards (18, 7/101) and Mark Ingram (11, 7/29). These backs combined for 21/68 rushing against the Browns in the season opener with Dobbins score two rushing TDs. Derrick Henry managed just 15/60 rushing last week with the game getting out of hand quickly, but James Robinson posted 159/1 scrimmage against them in Week 12 (without Myles Garrett in the lineup).

  • Mark Andrews is expected to return to the lineup after missing the last two games with COVID-19. He had two of his better games of the season in Weeks 10-11 with 12/157/1 receiving on 16 targets before his absence. He had his best game of the season against the Browns in Week 1 with 5/58/2 receiving on six targets. Cleveland just allowed a combined 25.3 FP to MyCole Pruitt and Anthony Firkser last week.

  • Marquise Brown has 9/124/2 receiving on 16 targets in the last two weeks, but he’s done with Andrews and Willie Snead out of the lineup. Hollywood had 5/101 receiving against the Browns earlier this season while Cleveland’s banged-up secondary just allowed a combined 15/269/1 receiving to A.J. Brown and Corey Davis last week.

  • Snead is expected to return to the lineup after missing the last two games with a COVID-19. He had 3+ catches in four straight games with 25 targets in that span. He posted 4/64/1 receiving in this matchup in the season opener.

Browns Trends

  • Cleveland’s minus-15 point differential is the worst for a team that has nine or more victories in their first 12 games in NFL history.

  • The Browns covered last week for just the second time in their last seven games.

  • The Browns eviscerated the Titans defense in the first half last week to the tune of 38 points and 344 total yards for a per play average of 8.0 yards.

  • Nick Chubb has 105+ scrimmage yards in six straight games that’s completed this season, and he has 4/58 receiving in his last two games after posting just 3/17 receiving in his first seven games combined. The Ravens have been a little more susceptible against RBs in recent weeks with five backs reaching 12+ FP in their last four games.

  • Kareem Hunt has reached double-digit FP and he’s found the end zone just once in his last five games, which includes the last four weeks with Chubb in the lineup. He also has just 4/34 receiving on six targets in the last three weeks. The Ravens are giving up 5.3/37.0/.3 receiving per game to RBs.

  • Baker Mayfield torched the Titans for 334/4 passing while averaging 10.1 YPA in Week 13, giving him 592/6 passing in his last two games. Ryan Tannehill is the only QB to reach 19+ FP against the Ravens in their last five games.

  • Jarvis Landry is humming in the last two weeks with consecutive 20+ FP after failing to hit 16+ FP in any of his first 10 games. He’s seen 21 targets for 16/205/2 receiving against the Jaguars and the Titans but this week’s matchup is quite a bit tougher against the Ravens. Primary slot WRs CeeDee Lamb (6/46) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (8/37/1) have had some success in the last two weeks.

  • Rashard Higgins exploded for 6/95/1 receiving against a hapless Titans secondary while playing 68% of the snaps. His 21.5 FP against Tennessee nearly matched his combined 22.2 FP that he posted in his first four games without Odell Beckham in the lineup. The Ravens have allowed four primary perimeter WRs (Gallup/Amari/Diontae/Claypool) to reach 11+ FP in the last two weeks.

  • Austin Hooper hasn’t reached 35+ receiving yards since returning to the lineup in the same week that Chubb returned to the lineup. Four TEs have reached 4+ catches against the Ravens over the last three weeks.

Brolley’s Bets

Baltimore Ravens +.5 (Best Bet)

Nick Chubb (Cle) over 86.5 rushing + receiving yards (Best Bet)

Tom is a Senior Writer at Fantasy Points who specializes in fantasy and betting analysis. He’ll be helping you to navigate the waiver wire and manage your fantasy teams while also keeping our betting content robust all year long, especially during the season. Tom's Best Bets against the spread won at 61.5% clip in 2019 and he was a perfect 8-0 on his Best Bets for season win totals in 2020.