Week 13 Sunday Trends and Picks

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Week 13 Sunday Trends and Picks

Examining trends for each team can help you make better-informed gambling and fantasy decisions. It’s never wise to bet a game based on a single trend and it’s also never wise to back off a wager based on a single trend, either. With that said, trends can point you in the right direction by corroborating stats and information you’ve gathered or they can make you reconsider making a bad wager based on flimsy data. I’ve gone game-by-game and compiled the most relevant trends for each team heading into this week’s contests. I’ve included any bets or leans I have for each game at the end of each writeup. Good luck with your wagers!

Player Props

  • Aaron Rodgers (GB) over 2.5 TD passes (+200, DraftKings)

  • Nyheim Hines (Ind) over 3.5 receptions (+150, DraftKings)

  • Jonathan Taylor (Ind) over 48.5 rushing yards (-115, BetMGM)

  • Travis Fulgham (Phi) under 2.5 receptions (-105, BetMGM)

  • Brandon Allen (Cin) under 208.5 passing yards (-112, William Hill)

  • Sam Darnold (NYJ) under 34.5 attempts (-112, DraftKings)

  • David Montgomery (Chi) over 60.5 rushing (-110, FanDuel)

  • Justin Jefferson (Min) over 67.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)

  • Keenan Allen (LAC) under 6.5 receptions (-118, DraftKings)

  • Tyreek Hill (KC) over 73.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel)

  • Anthony Firkser (Ten) over 26.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel)

  • Sterling Shepard (NYG) over 4.5 receptions (+130, William Hill)

  • Deebo Samuel (SF) over 5.5 receptions (+125, BetMGM)

Early Afternoon Games

Cleveland Browns (8-3, 4-7 ATS) at Tennessee Titans (8-3, 5-6), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Browns 23.75, Titans 29.75

  • Spread/Total Movements: 4 to 6, 52.5 to 54.5 to 53.5

  • Weather: 47 degrees, clear, light winds

  • Browns Injuries to Watch: CB Denzel Ward (calf, out), WR KhaDarel Hodge (hamstring, out)

  • Titans Injuries to Watch: WR A.J. Brown (hip), TE Jonnu Smith (knee, out), LG Roger Saffold (ankle), RT Dennis Kelly (knee), OLB Harold Landry (illness), CB Adoree Jackson (knee),

Browns Trends

  • The Browns have failed to cover in five of their last six games.

  • Cleveland is 5-1 toward unders in their last six games as an underdog while the Titans are 4-1-1 toward overs in their last six games as a favorite.

  • Baker Mayfield hasn’t reached 30+ passes since Week 5. He played in normal weather conditions last week for the first time in more than a month, which helped him to throw 250+ yards and 2+ TDs for the first time since Week 7. Nick Foles is the only QB to reach 20+ FP against the Titans in their last six games.

  • Nick Chubb is averaging 6.25 YPC, which is just off of Jamaal Charles’ NFL record average of 6.38 YPC in 2010. He’s run for 108+ yards with six TDs in his last five full games. The Titans are giving up 4.4 YPC to opposing RBs and .9 TDs per game.

  • Kareem Hunt’s FP (6.2<9.1<16.2) and touches (10<14<22) have dropped each week since Chubb’s return. Nyheim Hines totaled 8/66 receiving and 10/29 rushing as the main back for the Colts in this matchup last week.

  • Jarvis Landry awoke from a near season-long slumber with 8/143/1 receiving on 11 targets in his first non-weather affected game without Odell Beckham. He’s seen a 25% target share or better in three of his four games without OBJ. The Titans are allowing 17.2 catches per game to WRs (2nd-most).

  • Austin Hooper has just 6/57/1 receiving on nine targets since returning to the lineup in Week 10. The Titans are giving up 5.1/55.0/.6 receiving per game to TEs, including 5/96/1 receiving to Mark Andrews last week.

Titans Trends

  • The Titans are 8-2-1 toward overs.

  • Tennessee won outright as underdogs in its last two games

  • Derrick Henry ripped the Colts for 27/178/3 rushing and 2/7 receiving on four targets for 38.5 FP in Week 12. Henry now holds a 127-yard advantage over Dalvin Cook for the league’s rushing title (1257 to 1130). Henry has historically performed better in November and December when he averages 5.5 YPC compared to his 4.1 YPC average in the months of September and October. James Robinson posted 22/128/1 rushing against the Browns last week.

  • Ryan Tannehill has snapped out of a mini-funk with 19+ FP in two consecutive games after not reaching that mark in four straight games. He’s averaged 9.1 YPA in the last two games with 38/1 rushing. Cleveland’s pass defense has been aided by bad weather games over the last month until last week when Mike Glennon posted 235/2 passing in his first start since 2017.

  • A.J. Brown has bounced back from his one-catch performance in Week 10 with 8/160/2 receiving on 13 targets in the last two weeks. He now has 16+ FP in six of his last eight games. Collin Johnson posted 4/96/1 receiving against the Browns last week without Denzel Ward (calf), who is expected to miss again.

  • Corey Davis has reached double-digit FP in eight of his nine games, and he’s done it by being highly efficient with a 72.4% catch rate and a 14.7 YPR average. The Browns are allowing 39.9 FPG per game to WRs (10th-most).

  • Jonnu Smith has reached double-digit FP just twice in his last seven games after he opened the season with 11+ FP in each of his first four games. He bottomed out in Week 12 as he didn’t even register a target against the Colts despite playing 75% of the snaps. Geoff Swaim, of all players, led the Titans TEs with 3/30 receiving while playing 64% of the snaps while Anthony Firkser saw just one target without a catch on 28% of the snaps.

Brolley’s Bets

Cleveland Browns +5.5 (Staff Picks Lean)

Anthony Firkser (Ten) over 26.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

New Orleans Saints (9-2, 6-5 ATS) at Atlanta Falcons (4-7, 5-6), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Saints 23.75, Falcons 21.25
  • Spread/Total Movements: 3.5 to 2.5, 47.5 to 45
  • Weather: Dome
  • Saints Injuries to Watch: DL Marcus Davenport (concussion), CB Janoris Jenkins (knee), RB ty Montgomery (hamstring)
  • Falcons Injuries to Watch: WR Julio Jones (hamstring), RB Todd Gurley (knee), TE Hayden Hurst (ankle), WR Olamide Zaccheaus (toe, IR), LG James Carpenter (groin), DB Kendall Sheffield (illness)

Saints Trends

  • The Saints are 7-4 toward overs.
  • New Orleans has covered and played under the total in four straight games.
  • The Saints have won and covered seven straight games without Drew Brees over the last two seasons.
  • New Orleans is 5-1 ATS in its last six matchups with Atlanta.
  • Sean Payton decided to turtle on the ball last week going against a practice squad WR with the Saints attempting just 16 passes. Taysom Hill still has 10 carries, 44+ rushing yards, and two rushing TDs in each of his first two games. He’ll face a Falcons defense he averaged 10.1 YPA against just two weeks ago in his first career start.
  • Hill’s presence has absolutely crushed Alvin Kamara the last two weeks as he has just one catch for -2 yards after posting 67/644/4 receiving in his first nine games. He also just 24/99/1 rushing the last two weeks. Latavius Murray has been getting more work with 31/163/2 rushing in that same span with Hill at quarterback. Both Kamara and Latavius scored 10.5 FP against the Falcons two weeks ago.
  • Michael Thomas has a 30% target share or better in each of his last three games but there’s been little volume in the passing game with Taysom averaging 19.5 attempts per game over the last two games. Thomas posted 9/104 receiving on 12 targets against the Falcons two weeks ago.
  • Emmanuel Sanders had new life with Hill at quarterback against the Falcons as he posted 4/66 receiving on five targets before seeing just one target in last week’s game. The Falcons have allowed a league-high 48 completions of 20+ yards this season.
  • Jared Cook has just a six-yard catch on three targets in his first two games with Hill at quarterback.

Falcons Trends

  • Atlanta has covered in three of their last four games with their lone ATS loss coming against this week’s opponent. The Saints covered a 3.5-point spread in a 24-9 victory with a total that finished at 49.5 points.
  • The Falcons are 4-1 toward unders in their last five games.
  • Matt Ryan struggled once again without Julio Jones in the lineup last week with a season-low 4.7 YPA average. Ryan has thrown for multiple TDs just three times in his last nine games, and he got sacked eight times by the Saints two weeks ago.
  • Once again, Julio Jones’s status will be critical for Ryan and the rest of the offense. He was reportedly moving well in practice on Friday. Julio has 97+ yards and/or a touchdown when he’s been healthy enough to see more than four targets in a game.
  • Calvin Ridley has posted 14+ FP in nine of his 10 fully healthy games this season, including his 6/50/1 receiving performance last week with Julio out of the lineup. Ridley posted 5/90 receiving in this matchup two weeks ago, and he has 90+ yards in four of his first five career games against the Saints.
  • Hayden Hurst has clearly been a beneficiary when Julio is fully healthy and on the field. Hurst got shut out by the Saints two weeks ago on two targets, which was his only game without 4+ catches and 48+ yards over his last five games.
  • Toddy Gurley will look to return this week after a one-week absence for a knee injury. He managed just 8/26 rushing and 1/3 receiving against the Saints two weeks ago. New Orleans is allowing just 3.5 YPC to RBs and a league-low .3 rushing TDs per game to RBs.

Brolley’s Bets

New Orleans Saints -2.5 (Best Bet)

Detroit Lions (4-7, 4-7 ATS) at Chicago Bears (5-6, 5-6), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Lions 20.75, Bears 23.75
  • Spread/Total Movements: 4.5 to 3, 45.5 to 44.5
  • Weather: 38 degrees, clear, light winds
  • Lions Injuries to Watch: WR Kenny Golladay (hip), RB D’Andre Swift (illness), CB Jeff Okudah (shoulder), DL Da’Shawn Hand (groin)
  • Bears Injuries to Watch: DT Akiem Hicks (hamstring), LB Khalil Mack (back), LT Charles Leno (hamstring)

Lions Trends

  • The Lions cut the cord on HC Matt Patricia and GM Bob Quinn after a pathetic Thanksgiving Day performance. Patricia produced a 13-29-1 record (.310 winning percentage) in three seasons after Jim Caldwell went 36-28 with two playoff appearances in four seasons.
  • Detroit is 1-4 ATS in its last five games.
  • The Lions are 7-4 toward overs, including a 4-1 run in their last five games.
  • D’Andre Swift nearly played on Thanksgiving Day after suffering a concussion before Week 11, but he ultimately couldn’t gain final clearance to play against the Texans. Hopefully, interim HC Darrell Bevell will continue to let Swift be a bell-cow back down the stretch, but it’s unlikely to happen this week after Bevell said Swift would have a “small package of plays” if he plays after missing two practices. Adrian Peterson and Kerryon Johnson would be the next backs up if Swift can’t play. Without DT Akiem Hicks on the field last week, Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams combined for 34/163/1 rushing (4.8 YPC). The Bears held Derrick Henry (21/68) and Dalvin Cook (30/96) in check in their previous two games with Hicks on the field.
  • Matthew Stafford has thrown for multiple TDs just once in his last seven games, and he posted 297/1 passing in this matchup earlier this season. The Bears have allowed multiple TD passes in five straight games, but Aaron Rodgers became the first QB to post 20+ FP against them this season in Week 12.
  • Kenny Golladay has scored between 14-17 FP in each of his four complete games this season so he’s been a solid WR2 when he’s been on the field. He’ll try to return this week but he’s missing practice time once again this week. Golladay missed the season opener against the Bears, but he posted 7/215/2 receiving against Chicago last season.
  • Marvin Jones is averaging 5.3/59.5/.5 receiving and 8.0 targets per game in the last four games that Golladay has missed after averaging 2.8/37.4/.4 receiving and 4.6 targets per game in five games with Golladay in the lineup in Weeks 3-8. Jones posted 4/55 receiving on eight targets against the Bears in the season opener with Golladay out.
  • T.J. Hockenson posted a season-high 89 receiving yards last week, which gives him 50+ yards and/or a TD in 10 of his 11 games. The Bears have allowed 50+ yards and/or a TD to TEs in 10 of their 11 games. He posted 5/56/1 receiving against the Bears back in Week 1.

Bears Trends

  • Chicago beat the Lions 27-23 back in the season opener as 2.5-point road underdogs in a game totaled at 42.5 points.
  • The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five games in this series against the Lions.
  • The Bears jumped out to a 5-1 start this season but they’ve dropped five consecutive games to fall below .500 for the first time this season.
  • The Bears are 7-4 toward unders, including a 6-2 run over their last eight games.
  • David Montgomery is in a much better position to succeed when Mitchell Trubisky is at quarterback. Mitch lines up under center — rather than in the shotgun — more than Nick Foles, which allows Montgomery to run downhill with some much-needed build-up speed. Montgomery ripped off an early 57-yard run against the Packers in Week 12, which helped him to his first 100-yard game of the season. He finished with 11/103 rushing and 5/40/1 receiving for a season-best 25.3 FP. He’s now averaging 6.5 YPC (38/249/0 rushing) in his three full games with Trubisky playing under center compared to 3.7 YPC (102/326/1) in the seven games in which Foles has appeared. The Lions are giving up 4.7 YPC to RBs this season.
  • Mitchell Trubisky will get another look as the starter this week against the Lions after he posted 242/3 passing in garbage time against the Packers. Trubisky certainly did his part to dig the hole with two interceptions and a fumble-six while averaging just 5.3 YPA. Mitch has finished as a top-12 QB with three passing TDs in each of his last four starts against the Bears.
  • Allen Robinson posted 8/74/2 receiving on 13 targets in Chicago’s blowout loss to the Packers, which was his first game with Mitch since Week 3. A-Rob now has 6+ catches in four straight games and he sits behind only Keenan Allen and Stefon Diggs in targets per game (9.6). He posted 5/74 receiving against the Lions in Week 1.
  • Cole Kmet played a season-high 79% of the snaps coming out of their bye, which is the second straight game he’s played more than Jimmy Graham. Kmet has just 2/15 receiving on six targets since his role started to increase.

Brolley’s Bets

Chicago Bears -3 (Staff Picks Lean)

David Montgomery (Chi) over 60.5 rushing (-110, FanDuel) (Best Bet)

Indianapolis Colts (7-4, 6-5 ATS) at Houston Texans (4-7, 4-7), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Colts 27, Texans 23.50
  • Spread/Total Movements: 2.5 to 3.5, 54 to 50.5
  • Weather: Dome
  • Colts Injuries to Watch: LT Anthony Castonzo (MCL), QB Philip Rivers (toe), LB Bobby Okereke (LB), SS Khari Willis (back) OT Chaz Green (back)
  • Texans Injuries to Watch: WR WillFuller (suspension), CB Bradley Roby (suspension), DT Ross Blacklock (illness), FB Cullen Gillaspia (back), RB C.J. Prosise (illness, out)

Colts Trends

  • Indy has covered four consecutive spreads in this matchup.
  • The Colts are 7-4 toward overs, including a 6-1 run in their last seven games.
  • The Colts lost LT Anthony Castonzo to an MCL injury for a couple of weeks, which is a concern since Philip Rivers is one of the more pressure-sensitive QBs in the league.
  • Rivers is coming off a shaky performance against the Titans, but he got it done for fantasy by chasing production late with 295/2 passing. He now has 260+ passing yards and multiple passing TDs in four of his last six games while averaging a healthy 39.5 attempts per game. The Texans are a tough matchup on paper since they’ve allowed just three passing TDs in their last four games, but they’ve also faced just Luton/Baker/Cam/Stafford in that span.
  • Houston’s secondary is going to be vulnerable going forward after they lost top CB Bradley Roby for the season due to a PED suspension. PFF has Roby graded as the #19 CB in the league this season, and the Texans currently don’t have another cornerback who has played more than 200 snaps who is graded in their top-115 at the position. It bodes well for Michael Pittman who is coming off a 2/28 receiving performance despite seeing nine targets (21.4% share). He owns a 17.5% share over the last four weeks.
  • T.Y. Hilton is still hanging around with 5+ targets and 3+ catches in three straight games. He had his best game of the season in Week 12 with 4/81/1 receiving on five targets. Hilton has been a Texans killer during his career, averaging 5.3/95.4/.59 receiving per game in 17 career matchups (playoffs included).
  • Trey Burton played on just 27 snaps (36% share) last week, but he ran a route on 21 of those snaps for 3/42/1 receiving on five targets. More importantly, he has 13 red-zone opportunities since he entered the lineup in Week 4, which ranks behind only Hines (15), and he leads the team with four red-zone TDs in that span. The Texans are allowing a generous 8.3 YPT to TEs this season after T.J. Hockenson ripped Houston for 5/89 receiving on eight targets.
  • Jonathan Taylor’s rookie campaign got grounded again last week as the Colts placed him on the COVID-19 list as a high-risk contact. With Taylor out of the lineup, Nyheim Hines dominated the work in the Colts backfield with 8/66 receiving and 10/29 rushing on a 65% snap share. Jordan Wilkins could muster only 9/57 scrimmage on a 35% snap share. Jacoby Brissett has recently thrown another wrench into the backfield with three goal-line rushing TDs in the last three weeks, which lowers the ceiling for these backs going forward. The Texans are allowing a generous 5.4 YPC and a league-high 132.5 rushing yards per game to RBs.

Texans Trends

  • The Texans have covered in three straight games after starting the year 1-7 ATS.
  • Deshaun Watson posted 318/4 passing with a 12.7 YPA average last week, which gives him 24+ FP in six of his last seven games. He owns a 26.6 FPG average in that span since the Texans fired Bill O’Brien after Week 4. The Colts have given up 18+ FP in four of their last five games.
  • Watson will have his work cut out for him going forward with Will Fuller suspended for the rest of the season. In 16 games without Fuller, Watson’s YPA drops from 8.8 to 7.3 and his yards per game drops from 281.3 to 227.1.
  • The Texans cut Kenny Stills last week so they could give fifth-round pick Isaiah Coulter a chance to play on the perimeter while Keke Coutee will likely be the #2 passing option until Coulter gets his feet wet. Coutee saw a 13% target share last week while running 63% of his routes for the slot. Coutee does have a pair of 11-catch games against the Colts zone defense in three career games.
  • The Texans could also go with more 2-TE sets going forward since they’ve been mixing Pharaoh Brown into more. The Texans rank second in 12-personnel usage at 32.4% since Jordan Akins returned to the lineup in Week 9. Akins just missed two TDs on under- and over-thrown passes on Thanksgiving.
  • Of course, Brandin Cooks is the new #1 option after being the 1B since Bill O’Brien left town. He owns a 24% target share in his last seven games with 12+ FP in six games in that span. The Colts’ secondary has been ripped by lead receivers A.J. Brown (4/98/1) and Davante Adams (7/106/1) in the last two weeks.
  • David Johnson will be eligible to return in Week 13 after a three-week stay on the injured reserve after suffering a concussion in Week 9. The Texans have had a non-existent running game since Johnson went on the injured reserve with Duke Johnson mustering just 33/106 rushing (3.2 YPC) over the last three games — he also had 6/63/1 receiving. Derrick Henry gashed the Colts for 27/178/3 rushing last week without DeForest Buckner and Denico Autry in the lineup last week, but they’ll both be back this week.

Brolley’s Bets

Indianapolis Colts -3 (Best Bet)

Nyheim Hines (Ind) over 3.5 receptions (+150, DraftKings) (Best Bet)

Jonathan Taylor (Ind) over 48.5 rushing yards (-115, BetMGM) (Best Bet)

Cincinnati Bengals (2-8-1, 7-4 ATS) at Miami Dolphins (7-4, 8-3), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Bengals 15.5, Dolphins 27
  • Spread/Total Movements: 11 to 11.5, 41.5 to 42.5
  • Weather: 71 degrees, clear, 5 mph
  • Bengals Injuries to Watch: NT Christian Covington (illness), CB Tony Brown (hamstring)
  • Dolphins Injuries to Watch: QB Tua Tagovailoa (throwing thumb), RB DeAndre Washington (hamstring, doubtful), RB Salvon Ahmed (shoulder, doubtful)

Bengals Trends

  • Cincinnati has the lowest implied team total of the week.
  • The Bengals are winless in their last 19 road games.
  • Cincinnati is averaging just 12 points per game in their last three games, with one touchdown in that span coming on a kick return last week.
  • Brandon Allen completed 17/29 passes for 136 yards (4.7 YPA), one TD, and one INT in his first start with the Bengals. The Jets mustered just three points and Sam Darnold threw for 197 yards and two INTs against the Dolphins last week.
  • Tee Higgins was the one player to survive the first week with Allen thanks to a late touchdown. He caught all five of his targets for 44 yards and a TD. Jets perimeter WRs Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims combined for 8/146 receiving last week against the Dolphins.
  • Tyler Boyd saw a team-high six targets (20.7% share) last week, but he turned those looks into 3/15 receiving. Jamison Crowder posted 3/31 receiving in this matchup last week.
  • Giovani Bernard is averaging just 11.7 touches per game and 50.3 scrimmage yards per game in his last three games. Frank Gore posted 18/74rushing and 3/12 receiving against the Dolphins last week.

Dolphins Trends

  • Miami has covered in six of their last seven games after limiting the Jets to three points last week.
  • The Steelers and the Dolphins share the best ATS record at 8-3.
  • The Dolphins swept the Jets last week while allowing a combined three points against them this season.
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick has topped 18+ FP in six straight starts while averaging 23.0 FPG in his starts since his one dud in the season opener against the Patriots. OC Chan Gailey lets Fitz do his thing when he’s in the lineup as he’s averaging 33.7 attempts per game, and he has 12 passing TDs and two rushing TDs in his last six starts. He gets a great matchup against a Bengals defense that’s allowed the second-most passing TDs per game to QBs (2.2).
  • Tua Tagovailoa has been getting in limited practices this week and HC Brian Flores has said Tua will be the starter when healthy. Tua has topped 170+ passing yards once in his first four starts.
  • DeVante Parker is in a better position to succeed with Fitz’s DGAF attitude at QB. He posted 8/119 receiving on 14 targets last week. Parker still has 6+ catches and 60+ yards over his last four games since Preston Williams (foot) left the lineup in Week 9. The Bengals are allowing 39.9 FPG to WRs this season (ninth-most).
  • Mike Gesicki has been a more consistent option in recent weeks since Williams suffered his foot injury in Week 9. He’s posted 35+ yards in four straight games and he ended an eight-week scoreless drought with a touchdown last week. He’ll get one of the friendliest fantasy matchups against the Bengals this week, which just allowed Evan Engram to post 6/129 receiving last week.
  • The Miami backfield is in complete flux heading into Week 13 with Myles Gaskin (knee, IR) nearing a return. Salvon Ahmed led the backfield in recent weeks before a shoulder injury kept him out of the lineup in Week 12, which opened the door for DeAndre Washington to vault to the top of the depth chart over Matt Breida last week. Based on what I’ve seen this season, the Dolphins’ backfield pecking order would be Gaskin/Ahmed/Washington/Breida if they’re all healthy. Gaskin and Breida appears to be the healthiest of the backs with Washington and Ahmed doubtful this week. Wayne Gallman posted 24/94/1 rushing against the Bengals last week.

Brolley’s Bets

Miami Dolphins -11.5 (Staff Picks Lean)

Brandon Allen (Cin) under 208.5 passing yards (-112, William Hill) (Best Bet)

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-10, 5-6 ATS) at Minnesota Vikings (5-6, 6-5), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Jaguars 21.25, Vikings 31.25
  • Spread/Total Movements: 9.5 to 10.5, 50 to 52.5 to 51
  • Weather: Dome
  • Jaguars Injuries to Watch: WR Chris Conley (hip), NT Davon Hamilton (knee), CB Sidney Jones (Achilles), RT Jawann Taylor (knee), SS Jarrod Wilson (shoulder)
  • Vikings Injuries to Watch: RB Dalvin Cook (ankle), TE Irv Smith (groin, out), RG Ezra Cleveland (ankle), LB Eric Kendricks (calf)

Jaguars Trends

  • The Jaguars are 3-1 ATS since benching Gardner Minshew with a pair of backdoor covers in that span.
  • James Robinson continues to chug along with double-digit FP in every game this season and 94+ scrimmage yards in five straight games. Mike Davis posted 79 scrimmage yards last week against the Vikings, and they’re allowing 139.5 scrimmage yards per game to opposing RBs.
  • Mike Glennon played like a competent NFL quarterback against the Browns in his first start since 2017. He averaged 6.7 YPA while posting 235/2 passing with a skeleton crew at receiver with his top two receivers out of the lineup. The Vikings are allowing 271.0/2.2 passing per game to QBs.
  • D.J. Chark (ribs) and Chris Conley (hip) missed last week, leaving Collin Johnson (4/96/1 receiving on 32 routes), Laviska Shenault (3/31 on 34), and Keelan Cole (3/44 on 36) to play in 3-WR sets. Chark has reached double-digit FP twice in his last six games, and he’s yet to see game action with Glennon. Robby Anderson posted 4/94/1 receiving in this matchup last week and the Vikings are giving up the fourth-most FPG to WRs (43.2)
  • Johnson showed some second-team chemistry with Glennon and there’s a chance they could give the fifth-round pick a chance to play down the stretch with Chark on the perimeter and Shenault in the slot in 11 personnel — Conley and Cole are set to hit free agency this off-season.

Vikings Trends

  • The Vikings have the second-highest implied team total of the week.
  • Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last five games as a home favorite.
  • The Vikings have played over the total in seven of their last nine games.
  • Minnesota has played over the total in seven straight home games.
  • Kirk Cousins is rolling with 3 TD passes and/or 290+ passing yards in three of his last four games — he’s averaging 22.7 FPG in that span. The Vikings have an implied team total north of 30 points this week, and the Jaguars have allowed 255+ passing yards and multiple passing TDs to QBs in five straight games.
  • Justin Jefferson has become one of the league’s best WRs as he ranks behind just Davante Adams in yards per route run (2.91). Jefferson has posted 17+ FP in three straight games with 286 combined yards in that span. Seven different receivers have posted 15+ FP against the Jaguars in their last four games.
  • Adam Thielen has been the league’s best red-zone receiver as he’s converted an NFL-best 10-of-15 end-zone targets for touchdowns. The Jaguars have allowed six WRs TDs in their last four games, and Jarvis Landry posted 8/143/1 receiving in this matchup last week.
  • Kyle Rudolph posted season-highs in targets (8), catches (7), and yards (68) with both Thielen and Irv Smith out of the lineup last week. Rudolph has surprisingly scored just once this season, but he’s still trending upward with 3+ catches in each of his last four games after reaching that mark once in his first seven games. Rudolph has the chance to find paydirt for the second time this season going against a Jaguars defense that’s allowed the most TDs to tight ends per game (.8) this season.
  • Dalvin Cook had 82 scrimmage yards last week, which was his lowest output since he started the season with 48 and 71 scrimmage yards in Weeks 1-2, respectively. Kevin Stefanski’s offense gave the Jags fits last week with Nick Chubb posting 19/144/1 rushing and 3/32 receiving.

Brolley’s Bets

Jacksonville Jaguars +10.5 (Staff Picks Lean)

Justin Jefferson (Min) over 67.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings) (Best Bet)

Las Vegas Raiders (6-5, 7-4 ATS) at New York Jets (0-11, 3-8), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Raiders 27.5, Jets 19
  • Spread/Total Movements: 7.5 to 8.5, 48 to 46.5
  • Weather: 41 degrees, clear, 10-15 mph
  • Raiders Injuries to Watch: RB Josh Jacobs (ankle, out), WR Nelson Agholor (ankle), S Johnathan Abram (knee, out), CB Damon Arnette (concussion), LG Denzelle Good (ankle) DT Maliek Collins (hamstring), LB Nick Kwiatkoski (ankle), DL Clelin Ferrell (out)
  • Jets Injuries to Watch: LG Alex Lewis (out), ILB Blake Cashman (hamstring, IR), RT George Fant (knee)

Raiders Trends

  • The Raiders went from nearly knocking off the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football in Week 11 to losing 43-6 as 3.5-point road favorites against a Falcons team without Julio Jones.
  • The Raiders are 7-3-1 toward overs after playing under the total last week despite giving up 43 points.
  • Las Vegas had a four-game ATS winning streak snapped last week.
  • Derek Carr blowtorched everyone who used him as a streamer last week with three lost fumbles and an interception in one of fantasy’s easiest fantasy matchups against the Falcons. It was a collective burn-the-tape game for the Raiders, but they have a great spot to bounce back this week against a winless Jets team. The Jets had allowed 24+ FP in three straight games before Ryan Fitzpatrick totaled 19.3 FP on 257/2 passing last week.
  • Nelson Agholor has double-digit FP in six of his last eight games after posting 5/54 receiving on six targets against the Falcons last week. He missed some practice time this week, which could mean bigger roles for Henry Ruggs and Hunter Renfrow if he’s unable to play. Lead WRs (Parker/Keenan/Jakobi/Tyreek) have posted 98+ receiving yards and 19+ FP in four straight games against the Jets.
  • Darren Waller has fewer than 40 receiving yards in four of his last five games. He’s now averaging an ugly 8.5 YPR after averaging 12.7 YPR during his breakout 2019 campaign. The Jets have allowed double-digit FP and TDs to TEs in five straight games.
  • Josh Jacobs left early last week with an ankle issue with the Raiders getting blown out at the time of the injury. Devontae Booker played a season-high 35% of the snaps with Jacobs leaving early. Jacobs missed practices early in the week and he was ruled out on Friday afternoon, which will leave most of the work in this backfield to Booker. The Raiders enter this week as eight-point road favorites, and Jacobs was averaging 110.3 scrimmage yards on 25.8 touches per game with eight TDs in Las Vegas’ six victories so Booker should be pretty active.

Jets Trends

  • The Jets are 5-2 toward unders in their last seven games.
  • Sam Darnold averaged a season-best 7.3 YPA in his first full game with his entire receiving corps after failing to top 6.1 YPA in each of his six previous starts. On the downside, he threw two INTs and he led the Jets to just three points in Week 13. The Raiders are allowing 279.3 passing yards per game to QBs this season.
  • Breshad Perriman has posted 11+ FP in three straight games as the team’s top wideout. With Darnold at QB, he still led the Jets in receiving with 4/79 on eight targets (29.6% share) against the Dolphins in Week 12.
  • Denzel Mims posted 4/67 receiving on eight targets (29.6% share) against the Dolphins in Week 12 with Darnold at the helm. Mims has now posted 42+ receiving yards in each of his first five NFL games with double-digit FP in his last three games
  • Jamison Crowder now has 6/73/1 receiving on 10 targets in his three full games with Perriman and Mims on the field together. Russell Gage posted 3/34 receiving in this matchup last week.
  • Frank Gore saw a 58% snap share last week for 18/74 rushing and 3/12 receiving against the Dolphins. He’s posted 59+ scrimmage yards and 2+ catches in three straight games, but he’s managed just one TD this season. The Raiders are giving up 4.6 YPC and 8.3 YPR to RBs this season.

Brolley’s Bets

Las Vegas Raiders -8.5 (Staff Picks Lean)

Sam Darnold (NYJ) under 34.5 attempts (-112, DraftKings) (Best Bet)

Late Afternoon Games

Los Angeles Rams (7-4, 6-5 ATS) at Arizona Cardinals (6-5, 5-6), 4:05 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Rams 25.75, Cardinals 22.75
  • Spread/Total Movements: 1.5 to 3
  • Weather: Dome
  • Rams Injuries to Watch: NT Sebastian Joseph-Day (hip)
  • Cardinals Injuries to Watch: QB Kyler Murray (throwing shoulder), S Jalen Thompson (ankle), LG Justin Pugh (ankle)

Rams Trends

  • Both the Rams and the Cardinals are 8-3 toward unders.
  • Los Angeles is 5-0-1 ATS in its last six games in this series.
  • The Rams are 7-1 toward unders in their last eight games.
  • Jared Goff crumbled under pressure from the 49ers last week, posting just 198 yards and two INTs after topping 300+ yards in three straight games. The 49ers rank in the top-five in hurry rate (11.8%) and he’ll get a slightly easier matchup against the Cardinals who rank 13th (10.0%). The Cardinals have allowed 20+ FP to four straight QBs.
  • Cooper Kupp saw a season-low 16.1% target share last week even with Goff under intense pressure. Kupp has now failed to top 50 yards in four of his last six games while he has 11 catches and 110+ yards in each of his other two games. Jakobi Meyers had 5/52 receiving in this matchup last week while Tyler Lockett eviscerated them with 24/267/4 receiving in two games this season.
  • Robert Woods is scoring with 27 targets for 19/210/1 receiving in the last two weeks, and he’s had success against Patrick Peterson and company in the past. During his Rams career, Woods is averaging 7.4 catches and 93.6 receiving yards per game in five games against the Cards.
  • Josh Reynolds posted 5/40 receiving last week while playing 98% of the snaps, which gives him 40+ yards in six of his last seven games.
  • Cam Akers exploded for a 61-yard run against the 49ers, and he now has 25/141/1 scrimmage over the last three weeks since the Rams came out of their bye. Darrell Henderson has totaled just 61 scrimmage yards on 30 opportunities in his last three games, and he’s reached double-digit FP just once in his last six games. Malcolm Brown 17/98/2 scrimmage in that same span so this backfield remains a full-blown committee. The Cards are giving up 132.4 scrimmage yards per game to RBs.

Cardinals Trends

  • Arizona has failed to cover in four straight games.
  • The Cardinals averaged just 4.3 yards per play last week.
  • Kyler Murray is laboring through an AC sprain in his throwing shoulder, which he initially suffered against the Seahawks back in Week 11. Kyler has run just five times in each of his last two games for a combined 46 yards after he ran 10+ times for 60+ yards in each of his four previous games. Murray’s aDOT is also sitting under seven yards in each of his last two games, which includes his 6.2 aDOT against the Patriots, which dropped his season average down to 8.0. The Rams haven’t allowed a QB to reach 15+ FP since Week 6.
  • Kenyan Drake has posted two of his three best fantasy performances in the last two weeks with Kyler playing through his injury. Drake has caught seven passes for 46 yards in the last two weeks with Murray looking to check it down more because of his injured shoulder — Drake had just 8/38 receiving in his first eight games. He’s also found the end zone three times in that span despite averaging just 3.3 YPC (33/108/3 rushing). Drake has seen seven of his 13 goal-line carries in the last two weeks with Kliff Kingsbury designing fewer goal-line carries for Murray right now. The Rams haven’t allowed an RB to reach 15+ FP since Week 3.
  • Chase Edmonds 3+ catches in five straight games and in nine of his 11 games this season. He has 16/98 rushing and 11/71 receiving in three games since Drake returned to the lineup.
  • DeAndre Hopkins has 10/106 receiving on 15 targets in his last two games with Murray ailing. Nuk posted 5/40 receiving on eight targets in one game against Jalen Ramsey and Jags in 2019, and Hopkins averaged 6.5 catches and 77.8 yards on 13.8 targets per game (5.6 YPT) in six games against Ramsey and the Jags in 2016-18.
  • Christian Kirk’s production has dried up the last three weeks with just 11/96 receiving on 18 targets after scoring 20+ FP in his previous three games. The Rams are allowing a league-ow 129.3 receiving yards per game to WRs.
  • Andy Isabella had an increased role in Week 12 after Larry Fitzgerald landed on the COVID-19 list prior to their matchup with the Patriots. The second-year WR finished second in receiving production with 4/33 receiving on six targets with a 17.6% targets share and a 55% snap share.

Brolley’s Bets

Los Angeles Rams -1.5 (Best Bet)

New York Giants (4-7, 7-4 ATS) at Seattle Seahawks (8-3, 6-5), 4:05 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Giants 18.75, Seahawks 28.75
  • Spread/Total Movements: 8.5 to 10, 48 to 46.5 to 47.5
  • Weather: 48 degrees, clear, 5-10 mph
  • Giants Injuries to Watch: QB Daniel Jones (hamstring, doubtful)
  • Seahawks Injuries to Watch: RB Carlos Hyde (toe), RB Chris Carson (foot), DE Carlos Dunlap (foot), RT Brandon Shell (ankle)m RB Travis Homer (wrist), CB Tre Flowers (hamstring)

Giants Trends

  • New York has the second-lowest implied team total of the week.
  • The Giants are 8-3 toward unders, including a 5-1 run toward unders.
  • The Giants had a four-game ATS win streak snapped last week.
  • New York is on a six-game ATS winning streak as an underdog.
  • Colt McCoy will start for Daniel Jones (hamstring) this week. He’s started seven games since starting 21 games in Cleveland in 2010-11. His three most recent starts came in 2018-19 with the Football Team when he averaged 146.7 passing yards per game with two TDs and four INTs. Seattle’s defense has nine combined sacks and they’ve limited Kyler Murray and Carson Wentz to a combined 4.9 YPA in the last two weeks.
  • Sterling Shepard is averaging just 7.1 YPR over his last five games since returning to the lineup, but he’s averaging 8.0 targets and 6.6 catches per game in that span. McCoy targeted Shepard on four of his 10 passes last week.
  • Evan Engram has seen 9+ targets in four of his last five games, which he’s turned into 5+ catches and 10+ FP in those contests. The Seahawks have given up five TDs to TEs in the last five weeks after not allowing a score in their first six games.
  • Darius Slayton finished without a catch last week on two targets as he just missed hauling in a 74-yard touchdown last week. He’s now finished with 25 or fewer yards in three of his last five games, and he failed to see a target from McCoy last week.
  • Wayne Gallman has become a low-end RB1 out of thin air with TDs in five straight games (six total scores). He’s a little scary this week playing with McCoy with a negative game script looming as 10-point underdogs. Gallman has just 5/13 receiving in his last three games but at least McCoy won’t tuck it and run like Danny Dimes does.

Seahawks Trends

  • The Seahawks have played under the total in three straight games.
  • Seattle is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games after opening the season 4-0 ATS.
  • Russell Wilson has stepped out of the kitchen the last two weeks with just 59 attempts, 427 passing yards, and three TDs. Volume could be an issue again this week with the Seahawks entering as 10-point home favorites. The Giants are allowing just 17.6 FPG to QBs (6th-fewest), but they haven’t been tested by a QB since they faced Tom Brady in Week 8.
  • D.K. Metcalf torched Darius Slay for 10/177 receiving on 13 targets last week. He dropped a 25-yard touchdown or he would’ve had an even better day in Week 12. We’ll see if the bigger James Bradberry can give him a little more trouble this week. Mike Evans posted 3/42/1 on five targets in his coverage in Week 8.
  • Tyler Lockett managed just 3/23 receiving on four targets with Metcalf dominating targets last week. He’s now scored eight or fewer FP in three of his last five games. Tyler Boyd posted just 3/15 receiving last week but that came with Brandon Allen at quarterback.
  • The Seahawks eased Chris Carson back into the lineup last week after a long layoff as Carlos Hyde saw more snaps (41-25), carries (15-8), and targets (3-2). Carson has scored in five of his seven games with seven combined scores. Carson may have to take on a bigger workload with Hyde missing practice time this week. The Giants are allowing 87.0 rushing, 52.4 receiving, and 1.0 touchdowns per game to RBs.

Brolley’s Bets

New York Giants +10.5 (Staff Picks Lean)

Sterling Shepard (NYG) over 4.5 receptions (Best Bet)

Philadelphia Eagles (3-7-1, 4-7 ATS) at Green Bay Packers (8-3, 7-4), 4:25 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Eagles 19.75, Packers 28.25
  • Spread/Total Movements: 9 to 8.5, 47 to 48
  • Weather: 32 degrees, clear, 5 mph
  • Eagles Injuries to Watch: DT Fletcher Cox (neck), CB Darius Slay (calf), TE Zach Ertz (ankle)
  • Packers Injuries to Watch: C Corey Linsley (knee),LB Za’Darius Smith (ankle), TE Marcedes Lewis (knee)

Eagles Trends

  • The Eagles 7-4 toward unders, including a 5-0 run under the total.
  • Philly is coming off a miracle cover last week with a late Hail Mary and a two-point conversion against the Seahawks.
  • The Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.
  • Carson Wentz has seen one of the biggest passer rating drops as his 2020 rating sits at 73.4 after he averaged 98.3 in 2017-19. Wentz averaged just 4.8 YPA last week even with his Hail Mary completion at the end of last week. Even with his terrible stretch, Wentz has thrown for two TDs in six of his last seven games. The Packers have allowed three TD passes to Mitchell Trubisky and Philip Rivers in their last two games.
  • The Eagles used an ugly rotation with their perimeter WRs last week. Jalen Reagor led the way with a 60% snap share, followed by Alshon Jeffery (51.4%), Travis Fulgham (51.4%), and John Hightower (27.1%). The Packers are allowing 33.9 FPG to WRs (8th-fewest).
  • Dallas Goedert’s production has been on the rise in four straight games (2.5<7.3<18.7<20.5) since coming back from his ankle injury. Zach Ertz could return from his own ankle injury this week, and Richard Rodgers has been productive as the #2 TE with 9/161/2 receiving in the last three weeks. The Packers are allowing just 9.3 FPG to TEs (3rd-fewest) but Trey Burton and Jack Doyle each scored against them in Week 11.
  • Miles Sanders saw just half of the backfield touches last week while Boston Scott saw 43.7% of them. Sanders finished with just 8/22 scrimmage in Week 12, but the Packers have allowed David Montgomery (143/1 scrimmage) and Jonathan Taylor (114/0) to snap out of mini-funks in the last two weeks. Scott has 8/66 receiving in the last two weeks with the Eagles playing from behind — Philly enters as nine-point road underdogs.

Packers Trends

  • The Packers have scored 30+ points in eight of their 11 games this season, and they’re 7-4 toward overs.
  • Green Bay is 4-1 toward overs in its last five games.
  • The Packers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games.
  • Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 3+ TDs and/or 280+ yards in five of his last six games. He’s posted 23+ FP in nine of his 11 games this season. Russell Wilson posted 230/1 passing in this matchup last week.
  • Davante Adams has scored in six straight games (nine TDs combined) with 6+ catches and 50+ yards in each of those games. He’s posted 16/233/2 receiving on 25 targets in his last two games against Darius Slay (and the Lions) in 2018-19.
  • After a quiet return to the lineup in Week 11, Allen Lazard bounced back with 4/23/1 receiving on six targets (21% share) against the Bears. He’s scored in three of his five games while the Eagles have allowed just eight TDs to WRs.
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling went from posting 9/257/3 receiving on 16 targets in his last three games to going targetless on a 79% snap share in Week 12.
  • Robert Tonyan scored 60.3 FP in Weeks 2-4 and he’s starting to pick up steam once again after a mid-season lull. He’s posted five catches for 40+ yards and a touchdown in each of his last two games. His floor has also been solid recently with 3+ catches and 30+ yards in four of his last five games. The Eagles have tightened up against TEs since their Week 9 bye, but this isn’t a matchup to run away since they’re still allowing 14.6 FPG to TEs (6th-most).
  • Aaron Jones has scored just once in his last four games after scoring seven times in his first five games. He’s averaging 16.7 touches and 85.3 scrimmage yards per game over his last three contests. The Eagles are allowing just 3.4 YPC and 29.7 receiving yards per game to RBs with 11 total TDs.

Brolley’s Bets

Green Bay Packers -8.5 (Staff Picks Lean)

Aaron Rodgers (GB) over 2.5 TD passes (+200, DraftKings) (Best Bet)

Travis Fulgham (Phi) under 2.5 receptions (-105, BetMGM) (Best Bet)

New England Patriots (5-6, 5-6 ATS) at Los Angeles Chargers (3-8, 5-6), 4:25 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Patriots 24.25, Chargers 23.25
  • Spread/Total Movements: LAC -1 to NE +1, 49 to 47.5
  • Weather: Dome
  • Patriots Injuries to Watch: QB Cam Newton (abdomen)
  • Chargers Injuries to Watch: DE Joey Bosa (shin), LB Denzel Perryman (back), CB Casey Hayward (groin), CB Chris Harris (foot), RB Kalen Ballage (ankle)

Patriots Trends

  • The Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.
  • New England is 6-2 toward unders in its last eight games.
  • New England managed just 179 scrimmage yards while averaging a pathetic 3.7 yards per play last week.
  • Cam Newton is coming off his ugliest performance yet with just 84 passing yards and a season-low 4.7 YPA average. He’s also failed to run for a touchdown in the last two weeks after scoring nine TDs in his first eight games. The Chargers kept Josh Allen in check last week with 157/1 passing and 32/1 rushing, and they haven’t allowed a QB to reach 18+ FP in four straight games
  • Jakobi Meyers bounced back with a 33% target share (6 targets) last week for 5/52 receiving, which gives him a 24% share or better in five of his last six games. Cole Beasley disappointed with 2/25 receiving out of the slot last week but he did throw a TD pass, which we’ve seen Meyers do earlier this season.
  • James White scored two touchdowns but he saw a 6% target share and 37% snap share as he finished with 6/17/2 scrimmage. Los Angeles is giving up the fourth-most catches per game to RBs (6.1), and White tied an NFL record with 15 catches against the Chargers in the playoffs two seasons ago.
  • Damien Harris dominated the early-down last week with Sony Michel seeing just one snap in his return to the lineup. Harris managed just 11/43 rushing as he’s finished under 4.0 YPC in two consecutive games after doing it just once in his first six games. Devin Singletary and Zack Moss came to life in this matchup last week with a combined 141 rushing yards.

Chargers Trends

  • Los Angeles has failed to cover a spread in its last five games, which is the longest streak in the league.
  • The Chargers had a seven-game over streak snapped last week.
  • Austin Ekeler saw a career-high 25 touches with 16 targets in his first game back from his hamstring injury. Ekeler has 20+ touches in each of his four games this season, but he did get vultured Joshua Kelley at the goal line last week. Kenyan Drake posted 25/93/2 scrimmage against the Patriots last week.
  • Justin Herbert threw for 315 yards against the Bills last week but it took him 52 attempts to get there (6.1 YPA). Herbert has now averaged 6.5 YPA or worse in three of his last five games. It was also his first game with fewer than 20 FP since Week 3. The Patriots limited an injured Kyler Murray to 8.9 FP last week but they had allowed 21+ FP in three straight games.
  • Keenan Allen has scored in five straight games but he has finished with 40 or fewer yards in two of his last three games. He’s still averaging 12.0 targets per game since the Chargers came out of their bye in Week 7. The Patriots limited DeAndre Hopkins to 5/55 receiving on seven targets last week.
  • Mike Williams is sure to see a lot of Stephon Gilmore on the perimeter this week, and Williams has finished with under 40 yards in two of his last three games. He also saw an ugly 10% target share last week in his first game with Ekeler back in the lineup.
  • Hunter Henry has 4+ catches in five straight games and he’s coming off a season-high 10 targets last week. He’s scored 13-14 FP in three straight games after three consecutive games with fewer than eight FP in Weeks 7-9. Mark Andrews and Jordan Akins each scored 13 FP without a TD against the Patriots in Weeks 10-11 before New England faced the Cardinals last week.

Brolley’s Bets

Los Angeles Chargers -1 (Best Bet)

Keenan Allen (LAC) under 6.5 receptions (-118, DraftKings) (Best Bet)

Sunday Night Football

Denver Broncos (4-7, 6-5 ATS) at Kansas City Chiefs (10-1, 6-5), 8:20 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Broncos 18.5, Chiefs 32.5
  • Spread/Total Movements: 13.5 to 14, 48.5 to 51
  • Weather: 36 degrees, clear, light winds
  • Broncos Injuries to Watch: CB Bryce Callahan (foot, IR), RB Phillip Lindsay (knee), WR Jerry Jeudy (ankle),
  • Chiefs Injuries to Watch: RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (illness), CB Bashaud Breeland (illness)

Broncos Trends

  • The Broncos have failed to cover in three of their last four games.
  • Denver is on a three-game under streak after playing over the total in three straight games in Weeks 7-9.
  • Melvin Gordon has a chance to get volume this week if Phillip Lindsay is unable to play after picking up a knee injury last week. Gordon averaged 18.4 touches, 80.0 scrimmage yards, and 1.0 TDs per game in his three full games without Lindsay in the lineup in Week 2-4. He managed 17/68/1 rushing and 2/12 receiving against the Chiefs in Week 7.
  • Lindsay has reached 25+ scrimmage yards once in his last four games with no touchdowns in that span.
  • Drew Lock will be back in the lineup after last week’s debacle. He’s topped 15+ FP just twice in eight games this season. Lock completed 24/40 passes (6.4 YPA) for 254 yards and two INTs against the Chiefs in Week 7.
  • Noah Fant caught a pass last week, which is one more catch than every other player in Denver. He’s reached double-digit FP just once in the last 10 weeks, and he posted 3/38 receiving on seven targets against the Chiefs in Week 7.
  • Tim Patrick led the Denver WRs with 3/44 receiving on four targets against the Chiefs in Week 7. Jerry Jeudy managed just 2/20 receiving on four targets while K.J. Hamler recorded 2/24 on three targets. Jeudy had seen 8+ targets in four straight games after moving to the perimeter in Weeks 8-11 before last week’s clown show. The Chiefs have allowed the fourth-fewest FPG (32.2) and the second-fewest receiving yards per game to WRs (140.9).

Chiefs Trends

  • Kansas City has the highest implied team total of the week.
  • The Chiefs whipped the Broncos 43-16 as seven-point road underdogs in a game that was totaled at 46 points back in Week 7.
  • Kansas City is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games in this series with 10 outright victories.
  • Patrick Mahomes is averaging 45.3 passes, 399.5 passing yards, and 3.5 passing TDs per game since the Chiefs started going pass-heavy four games ago. He had his worst fantasy performance of the season (12 FP) against the Broncos in Week 7 in their last game when they were still running the ball. He completed 15/23 passes for 200 yards and one TD.
  • Tyreek Hill is carrying teams into the fantasy playoffs with 25+ FP in four straight games with 98+ yards and 1+ TDs in every game. He’s seen a 30% target share in four of his last five games with Mahomes obviously throwing a ton. Hill posted 6/55/1 receiving on 10 targets against the Broncos in Week 7.
  • Travis Kelce has posted 8+ catches, 8+ targets, and 82+ yards in each of the last four games with two TDs in that span. He had his quietest game of the season against the Broncos in Week 7 with 3/31 receiving on three targets.
  • Sammy Watkins ran 43 routes in his return to the lineup, which was behind Demarcus Robinson (46). Watkins posted 4/38 receiving on seven targets while Robinson managed 5/36 on six targets. Watkins missed this matchup back in Week 7 while Robinson had just a four-yard catch and Mecole Hardman had 2/57 receiving.
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire has turned into a TD-dependent back for fantasy as he’s averaging nine carries, two catches, and 45.3 scrimmage yards per game with three TDs in his last four games. He totaled 9/63/1 scrimmage against the Broncos in Week 7.

Brolley’s Bets

Kansas City Chiefs -13.5 (Staff Picks Lean)

Tyreek Hill (KC) over 73.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel) (Best Bet)

Tom is a Senior Writer at Fantasy Points who specializes in fantasy and betting analysis. He’ll be helping you to navigate the waiver wire and manage your fantasy teams while also keeping our betting content robust all year long, especially during the season. Tom's Best Bets against the spread won at 61.5% clip in 2019 and he was a perfect 8-0 on his Best Bets for season win totals in 2020.