Week 11 TNF Trends and Picks


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Week 11 TNF Trends and Picks

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Examining trends for each team can help you make better-informed gambling and fantasy decisions. It’s never wise to bet a game based on a single trend and it’s also never wise to back off a wager based on a single trend, either. With that said, trends can point you in the right direction by corroborating stats and information you’ve gathered or they can make you reconsider making a bad wager based on flimsy data. I’ve gone game-by-game and compiled the most relevant trends for each team heading into this week’s contests. I’ve included any bets or leans I have for each game at the end of each writeup. Good luck with your wagers!

Thursday Night Football

Arizona Cardinals (6-3, 5-4 ATS) at Seattle Seahawks (6-3, 5-4), 8:20 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Cardinals 27.25, Seahawks 30.25

  • Spread/Total Movements: 3.5 to 3, 58.5 to 57.5

  • Weather: 46 degrees, 33% chance of rain, 10 mph

  • Cardinals Injuries to Watch: DE Jordan Peters (hamstring, out) NT Corey Peters (knee, out), ILB De’Vondre Campbell (calf), TE Darrell Daniels (ankle), TE Maxx Williams (ankle)

  • Seahawks Injuries to Watch: WR Tyler Lockett (knee), RB Chris Carson (foot), C Ethan Pocic (concussion, out), CB Shaq Griffin (hamstring, out), CB Quinton Dunbar (knee, out), CB Neiko Thorpe (core, out), RB Travis Homer (knee, doubtful)

Cardinals Trends

  • The Cardinals beat the Seahawks in a 37-34 overtime thriller back in Week 7.

  • Arizona has played under the total in four straight road games.

  • The Cardinals are 5-1-2 ATS in their last eight road games.

  • Kyler Murray has 60+ rushing in four straight games and in seven of his nine games. He’s now scored 24+ FP in every game this season, including in Week 7 when he posted 38.1 FP against the Seahawks with 360/3 passing and 67/1 rushing.

  • DeAndre Hopkins has five 100-yard games but he’s yet to do it consecutive games this season. He topped 100+ yards last week thanks to his 43-yard Hail Mary catch, and he last reached the century mark when he posted 10/103/1 receiving against the Seahawks in Week 7.

  • Christian Kirk’s run of 20+ FP in three straight games came to an end last week when he posted 4/27 receiving against the Bills. He still saw a solid 19% target share, and he posted 5/37/2 receiving on eight targets against the Seahawks three weeks ago.

  • Larry Fitzgerald had his best performance of the season in this matchup three weeks ago, catching all eight of his targets for 62 yards, which was his only performance with double-digit FP in his last seven games.

  • Kenyan Drake lost a fumble in the second half last week, but he ran well overall with 16/100 rushing against the Bills while playing 52% of the snaps. Drake has now averaged more than 6.0 YPC in two out of his last three games after failing to average more than 4.5 YPC in any of his first five games. Drake still continues to be a non-factor as a receiver as he hasn’t reached 10+ receiving yards or 3+ targets in a game this season. He managed just 14/34 rushing and 1/7 receiving before leaving with his ankle injury against the Seahawks in Week 7. Seattle is allowing 1.0 rushing TDs per game to RBs.

  • Chase Edmonds slid back into his passing-back/change-of-pace role with 8/56 rushing and 3/21 receiving on a 49% snap share last week. With Drake leaving early, Edmonds had his best game against the Seahawks in Week 7 with 145/1 scrimmage.

Seahawks Trends

  • The Seahawks won’t have fans in attendance this week.

  • Seattle has failed to cover a spread in four of its last five games after opening the season with a four-game ATS winning streak.

  • The Seahawks played under the total last week for just the second time this season.

  • Seattle is 7-1-2 ATS in its last 10 Thursday games.

  • Russell Wilson is coming off a season-worst performance against the Rams in which he failed to throw a touchdown pass while averaging a season-low 6.7 YPA. He also had three turnovers last week, giving him 10 turnovers in his last four games. Russ threw three INTs against the Cardinals in Week 7, but he still had 388/3 passing with 84 rushing yards.

  • The Seahawks managed just 16 points last week with D.K. Metcalf struggling against Jalen Ramsey as he managed just 2/28 receiving. Metcalf also struggled in his matchup with Patrick Peterson when these teams met in Week 7, posting just 2/28 receiving. DeVante Parker posted a solid 6/64 receiving in this matchup last week.

  • Tyler Lockett blasted off for 15/200/3 receiving on 20 targets against the Cardinals in Week 7. He’s had three pedestrian lines (5/66, 4/40, 4/33) since he went nuclear on the Cards. Lockett is dealing with a knee sprain this week and he didn’t practice this week

  • David Moore cooled off last with just 2/16 receiving after he posted 10/143/2 receiving in Weeks 7-9, which included a 3/54 performance against the Cardinals in Week 7.

  • Carlos Hyde is going to lead this backfield this week after they removed him from the injury report for his hamstring injury, which kept him out the last three weeks. Chris Carson (foot) is looking unlikely to play and Travis Homer is listed as doubtful, leaving Hyde to do most of the work with Alex Collins and DeeJay Dallas behind him. Carson posted 6/41 scrimmage against the Cardinals in Week 7 before suffering his foot injury. Hyde stepped in and posted 18/76/1 scrimmage before injuring his hamstring.

Brolley’s Bets

Arizona Cardinals +3.5 (Best Bet)

Chase Edmonds (Ari) over 47.5 rushing and receiving yards (Best Bet)

Tom is a Senior Writer at Fantasy Points who specializes in fantasy and betting analysis. He’ll be helping you to navigate the waiver wire and manage your fantasy teams while also keeping our betting content robust all year long, especially during the season. Tom's Best Bets against the spread won at 61.5% clip in 2019 and he was a perfect 8-0 on his Best Bets for season win totals in 2020.