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Welcome to Fantasy Points Best Bets. This will be the main hub for our staff’s favorite NFL bets throughout the season. Our staff will give their favorite spread, total, and player prop bets every week during the season through the Super Bowl. Be sure to check back regularly before kickoff to see what wagers our crew has lined up for the week ahead.
Tom Brolley
Game Picks
Best Bets ATS Record: 24-29-2 (-9.42 units); W10: 0-4 (-5 units)
Overall ATS Record: 85-73-2 (53.8%); W10: 5-8
Totals Record: 4-3 (+.87 units); W10: 1-0 (+.91 units)
Atlanta Falcons (+5, BetMGM) at New Orleans Saints
The Saints will be without Drew Brees for at least the next two weeks, and I’m expecting this offense to have some hiccups as they transition to Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill for the first time. The Saints covered a 10-point spread against the 49ers last week with Brees sitting out the second half, but the 49ers out-gained the Saints as San Francisco was ultimately done in by a pair of costly special teams mistakes. Meanwhile, the Falcons are coming off their late-season bye after building some positive momentum after a disastrous start to the season. The Falcons have won three out of four games since firing Dan Quinn, with their only outright and ATS loss coming in Detroit's last-second victory over them. I think this line should be in the 3-to-4 point range so I see some value in this line at +4.5 or better. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units (Nov. 19)
Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns (under 48, DraftKings)
Browns games have combined for a meager 39 points over their last two contests because of windy, rainy conditions in the Cleveland area. Guess what, Cleveland might have wind and rain in the area for a third straight home game with the Eagles visiting the Browns on Sunday. Current forecasts are projecting all-day showers in Cleveland with winds currently sitting around 15 mph. The Eagles have been an under team recently as they’ve played under three straight totals with 21 or fewer points scored in three straight games. We also haven’t really seen what this Browns offense is capable of without Odell Beckham so I’m grabbing the under now at 48 points before this total potentially dips later this week. Risk one unit at -110 to win .91 units (Nov. 17)
Miami Dolphins (-2.5, FanDuel) at Denver Broncos
I broke this game down as part of my Week 11 Opening Line Report. Drew Lock is an absolute mess at quarterback for the Broncos with 10 INTs in his last five games, which is bad news this week going against a Dolphins defense that nearly scored a D/ST touchdown for the third straight game against the Chargers last week. I grabbed the Dolphins at -2.5 on Sunday night but I still like them laying three points on the road this week since I think this line closes in the 3.5 to 4.5 point range. Risk 1.5 units at -114 to win 1.32 units (Nov. 16)
Cincinnati Bengals (+2/+105, FanDuel/BetMGM) at Washington Football Team
I broke this game down as part of my Week 11 Opening Line Report. The Bengals have been demolished when they’ve been clearly outmanned by the Steelers and the Ravens this season, and that won’t be the case this week against the Football Team. The Bengals have played in one-scores games in every other contest this season outside of their 11-point victory over the Titans before their bye week. I have the Bengals power rated as the better team in this matchup even with homefield advantage baked in and Cincinnati could be in better shape this week if Geno Atkins (personal) and Joe Mixon (foot) can return to the lineup. Risk one unit at -113 to win .88 units and risk .5 units at +105 to win .53 units (Nov. 16)
Arizona Cardinals (+3.5, FanDuel) at Seattle Seahawks
I broke this game down as part of my Week 11 Opening Line Report. The Cardinals beat the Seahawks in a 37-34 overtime thriller back in Week 7, and I’m expecting another tight contest this week in a pivotal battle for the NFC West title. The Seahawks figure to sit around three-point favorites this week so I’m looking to grab the hook at a reduced price (-106) with the team that’s trending upward compared to the team that’s failed to cover four out of its last five spreads. D.K. Metcalf struggled in his matchup with Patrick Peterson when these teams met in Week 7, and the Seahawks managed just 16 points last week with Metcalf struggling against Jalen Ramsey last week. Risk one unit at -106 to win .94 units (Nov. 16)
Player Props
Record: 91-76 (+8.29 units); W10: 6-5 (+.53 units)
All one-unit wagers unless otherwise noted.
Chase Edmonds (Ari) over 47.5 rushing and receiving yards (+100, BetMGM) (W)
Dalvin Cook (Min) over 97.5 rushing yards (-112, DraftKings) (W)
Kyle Rudolph (Min) under 2.5 receptions (+106, FanDuel) (L)
Chase Claypool (Pit) over 47.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel) (W)
Willie Snead (Bal) over 33.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings) (L)
Hayden Hurst (Atl) over 3.5 receptions (-112, DraftKings) (L)
Damien Harris (NE) over 63.5 rushing yards (-115, William Hill) (L)
Michael Pittman (Ind) over 46.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel) (W)
A.J. Green (Cin) under 44.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel) (W)
Samaje Perine (Cin) over 20.5 rushing yards (-112, DraftKings) (L)
Antonio Gibson (Was) over 49.5 rushing yards (-110, FanDuel) (W)
Rob Gronkowski (TB) over 31.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)
