Week 11 Sunday Trends and Picks

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Week 11 Sunday Trends and Picks

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Examining trends for each team can help you make better-informed gambling and fantasy decisions. It’s never wise to bet a game based on a single trend and it’s also never wise to back off a wager based on a single trend, either. With that said, trends can point you in the right direction by corroborating stats and information you’ve gathered or they can make you reconsider making a bad wager based on flimsy data. I’ve gone game-by-game and compiled the most relevant trends for each team heading into this week’s contests. I’ve included any bets or leans I have for each game at the end of each writeup. Good luck with your wagers!

This week’s player props

  • Dalvin Cook (Min) over 97.5 rushing yards (-112, DraftKings)

  • Kyle Rudolph (Min) under 2.5 receptions (+106, FanDuel)

  • Chase Claypool (Pit) over 47.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel)

  • Willie Snead (Bal) over 33.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)

  • Hayden Hurst (Atl) over 3.5 receptions (-112, DraftKings)

  • Damien Harris (NE) over 63.5 rushing yards (-115, William Hill)

  • Michael Pittman (Ind) over 46.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel)

  • A.J. Green (Cin) under 44.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel)

  • Samaje Perine (Cin) over 20.5 rushing yards (-112, DraftKings)

  • Antonio Gibson (Was) over 49.5 rushing yards (-110, FanDuel)

  • Rob Gronkowski (TB) over 31.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)

Early Afternoon Games

Tennessee Titans (6-3, 3-6 ATS) at Baltimore Ravens (6-3, 4-5), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Titans 22.25, Ravens 27.25

  • Spread/Total Movements: 6.5 to 5, 47 to 49.5

  • Weather: 52 degrees, clear, 5-10 mph

  • Titans Injuries to Watch: WR A.J. Brown (knee), DE Jadeveon Clowney (knee), WR Adam Humphries (concussion), CB Adoree Jackson (knee), C Ben Jones (knee), LG Roger Saffold (ankle), RT Dennis Kelly (knee)

  • Ravens Injuries to Watch: DE Calais Campbell (calf), DT Brandon Williams (ankle)

Titans Trends

  • Tennessee beat Baltimore 28-12 in the Divisional Round last year as 10-point road underdogs.

  • The Titans haven’t covered in a spread in their last four road games.

  • Derrick Henry hasn’t found the end zone in his last two games after scoring eight TDs in a five-game span in Weeks 3-8. He’s still seen 18+ carries in every game this season. The Ravens have allowed just three rushing TDs, but Damien Harris did rumble for 22/121 rushing last week.

  • Ryan Tannehill’s magic is starting to run out since his left tackle Taylor Lewan left the lineup with a torn ACL in Week 6. Tannehill had 19+ FP in four of his first five games, even though A.J. Brown missed time during that stretch, but he hasn’t hit that mark in four straight games since Lewan left the lineup. Tannehill had his worst game yet in Week 10 as he completed 15/27 passes for 147 yards (5.4 YPA) and one TD for just 10.78 FP in a 17-point loss to the Colts. The Ravens have allowed multiple passing TDs three times in nine games and Patrick Mahomes is the only player to throw for more than two scores.

  • A.J. Brown dropped a potential 72-yard touchdown against the Colts last week, which halted his five-game streak with touchdowns. He went into a funk after that play as he failed to reach 4+ catches for the first time in six games. Brown posted 100+ yards and a TD against the Steelers and the Bears over the last month, and he gets another tough draw this week. Travis Fulgham and Terry McLaurin are the only lead perimeter WRs to top 15+ FP against the Ravens.

  • Corey Davis bounced back from his Week 9 goose egg with 5/67 receiving last week for his sixth game with 11+ FP in seven tries. The Ravens are allowing the fifth-fewest FPG to WRs (31.6).

  • Jonnu Smith has just 8/97 receiving over his last five games since Lewan tore his ACL in Week 6. He’s at least run routes on 78% of Tannehill’s dropbacks the last two weeks compared to 55% for Anthony Firkser so they’re trying to get him involved as a receiver again. The Ravens allowed three TEs to reach 50+ receiving yards in the first three weeks of the season and no TE has done it since.

Ravens Trends

  • The Ravens won’t have fans in attendance this week.

  • The Ravens are now 0-6 with Lamar Jackson at quarterback in any games they’ve trailed by 10 or more points after falling to the

  • Baltimore is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games.

  • The Ravens are 4-1 toward unders in their last five home games.

  • Baltimore lost another key piece to its run and pass blocking units with TE Nick Boyle going down for the season with a knee injury. Mark Ingram came back last week and turned the backfield back into an ugly three-man committee. Gus Edwards had eight touches, J.K. Dobbins had seven, and Ingram had seven against the Patriots last week. The Titans have been ripped for 22+ FP by Giovani Bernard (78/2 scrimmage) and Nyheim Hines (115/2) over the last two weeks.

  • Lamar Jackson has 55+ rushing yards in four straight games, which has helped him to 18+ FP in four straight games after hitting that mark just twice in his first five games. The Ravens have allowed 18+ FP to QBs in seven of their nine games.

  • Mark Andrews snapped out of a little funk with 7/61 receiving and a season-high nine targets after combining for just 8/75 on 15 targets in his previous three games. We’ll see if Boyle’s absence changes his role at all in the offense this week. The Titans are allowing a solid 5.1/50.4/.6 receiving per game to TEs.

  • Willie Snead has 4+ catches in three straight games out of their Week 8 bye, and he’s turned in 15+ FP in two of those three contests after posting 5/64/2 receiving against the Patriots in Week 10. Lamar looks much more comfortable throwing in the intermediate to short areas of the field, especially between the hashes right now. Zach Pascal (4/33) and Anthony Miller (5/59) have had pulses in the middle of the field the last two weeks against the Titans.

  • Marquise Brown hasn’t topped 10+ FP in four straight games, which includes just 6/55/1 receiving on 13 targets over his last three games. T.Y. Hilton posted 4/40 receiving in this matchup last week.

Brolley’s Bets

Tennessee Titans +6 (Staff Pick Lean)

Willie Snead (Bal) over 33.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Detroit Lions (4-5, 4-5 ATS) at Carolina Panthers (3-7, 5-5), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: No total has been set as of Friday morning.
  • Spread/Total Movements: Panthers -1.5 to Lions -2.5
  • Weather: 65 degrees, clear, 5 mph
  • Lions Injuries to Watch: RB D’Andre Swift (concussion), WR Kenny Golladay (hip), QB Matthew Stafford (thumb), WR Danny Amendola (hip)
  • Panthers Injuries to Watch: RB Christian McCaffrey (shoulder), QB Teddy Bridgewater (knee), CB Donte Jackson (toe), LT Russell Okung (calf), RG John Miller (knee)

Lions Trends

  • The Lions are 6-3 toward overs this season.
  • The Lions finally made D’Andre Swift their bell-cow back last week with a 73% snap share and a season-high 21/149/1 scrimmage against the Football Team. He’s now scored double-digit FP every time he’s seen double-digit touches in a game. Unfortunately, he landed in the concussion protocol on Thursday, which makes him a long shot to play on Sunday. Adrian Peterson will likely lead a two-man committee with Kerryon Johnson, with Jonathan Williams potentially filling in behind them. The Panthers are allowing 108.8/1.0 rushing and 6.6/44.5/.2 receiving per game to RBs.
  • Matthew Stafford is averaging more than 8.0 YPA in three of his last four games after doing it just once in his first five games. He’s thrown for three TDs in two of his last three games, and the Panthers’ secondary is now a unit to attack as they’ve allowed 280+ passing yards in four straight games.
  • T.J. Hockenson posted just 2/13 receiving on a six-week low of four targets after missing some practice time last week. He snapped a run of 50+ receiving yards and/or a touchdown to start 2020. The Panthers have been ripped by TEs lately as they’ve allowed six TEs to reach double-digit FP in the last five weeks.
  • Marvin Jones has caught fire over the last four weeks, three of which have come with Kenny Golladay out of the lineup. He’s posted 13+ FP in four straight games with four TDs in three straight games. The Panthers’ secondary allowed Tampa’s big three WRs to each post 13+ FP last week.
  • Marvin Hall has exploded for multiple big plays as Stafford’s top vertical threat while Golladay has been out of the lineup over the last three games, posting 9/202/1 receiving for a healthy 22.4 YPR. Mecole Hardman managed 3/48 receiving in this matchup two weeks ago.
  • Golladay is hoping to return this week after getting some work in during practice this week. He’s posted 4+ catches in each of his four healthy games this season with either a touchdown or 100+ yards in those contests.

Panthers Trends

  • The Panthers will allow up to 5,240 fans this week
  • Carolina had lost four straight one-score games before getting exposed by the Buccaneers in Week 10 as they were out-gained by 367 yards (544 to 187).
  • The Panthers are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine home games.
  • Mike Davis will remain in the bell-cow role he’s held in seven of Carolina’s last eight games. He has slammed into a wall after scoring 22+ FP in his first three games as the team’s bell-cow back in Week 3-5. He’s averaging just 53.0 scrimmage yards per game with just one touchdown in his last four games without CMC, but he’s struggled against some good run units (Chi, Atl, NO, TB). He gets the league’s friendliest RB matchup this week against the Lions who are allowing a staggering 35.9 FPG to RBs. Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic combined for 40.4 FPG last week in this matchup.
  • Teddy Bridgewater is up in the air for this weekend with his knee injury. HC Matt Rhule’s old Temple quarterback, P.J. Walker, would likely be the next man up. The Lions have allowed 16+ FP to every QB they’ve faced this season.
  • Robby Anderson would have the leg up on his teammates this week if Walker would get the start since they have a history as they starred together for a season at Temple in 2015. Robby posted 70+ receiving in six of his first seven games, but he’s fallen below 65 receiving yards in three straight games. Terry McLaurin posted 7/95 receiving in this matchup last week.
  • D.J. Moore has surprisingly been a boom-or-bust option this season with five games with 14+ FP and five games with nine or fewer FP. The Lions are allowing 13.0 YPR to WRs this season.
  • Curtis Samuels’s run of 17+ FP came to an end last week as he failed to find the end zone for the first time in three games as he mustered just 6/12 scrimmage against the Buccaneers. He’s still seen 5+ targets in five straight games and 3+ carries in three straight games to keep the lights on.

Brolley’s Bets

Detroit Lions -1 (Staff Pick Lean)

Philadelphia Eagles (3-5-1, 3-6 ATS) at Cleveland Browns (6-3, 3-6), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Eagles 22, Browns 25
  • Spread/Total Movements: 3.5 to 3, 46 to 48 to 47
  • Weather: 45 degrees, 90% chance of rain, 5-10 mph
  • Eagles Injuries to Watch: RB Corey Clement (COVID-19 list), WR J.J. Arcega-Whiteside (COVID-19 list), DE Vinny Curry (COVID-19 list)
  • Browns Injuries to Watch: DE Myles Garrett (COVID-19 list, out), RT Jack Conklin (COVID-19 list), LB Mack Wilson (hip)

Eagles Trends

  • The Eagles have five straight games against teams with winning records.
  • Philly is 5-2 toward unders in their last seven games.
  • Carson Wentz is averaging a pathetic 5.1 YPA in his last two games even with most of his cast back in that span. He also hasn’t run for a touchdown in that span after running off five rushing TDs in a six-game span in Weeks 2-7. The Browns limited Deshaun Watson and Derek Carr to a combined 274/2 passing over their last two games in windy, rainy conditions, which could be in the forecast for a third straight game in Cleveland this weekend.
  • Travis Fulgham had a 13.9% target share last week after averaging a 29% share in his last four games. He finished with just an eight-yard catch on five targets, which ended his five-game run with 12+ FP. Will Fuller posted 5/38 receiving in this matchup last week in tough conditions.
  • Jalen Reagor has seen a 19% and a 23% target share in his first two games back, and he’s turned his looks into a respectable 7/63/1 receiving. Brandin Cooks managed 6/39 receiving in this matchup last week in ugly conditions.
  • Dallas Goedert has been slow out of the gates coming off his ankle injury with just 5/48 receiving, which Richard Rodgers topped on his own last week with 4/60. Third-string TE Pharaoh Brown managed 2/21/1 receiving against the Browns last week.
  • Miles Sanders played on 72% of the snaps and he saw 77% of the RB touches last week, but both Boston Scott and Corey Clement scored touchdowns on just five combined touches. Sanders still turned in 95+ scrimmage yards for the fifth time in his six games. Duke Johnson failed to see a target in this matchup last week with 14/54 rushing as the bell-cow back.

Browns Trends

  • The Browns will allow up to 12,000 fans to attend this week.
  • The Browns are on a four-game ATS losing streak.
  • It’s tough to get a great gauge of where Baker Mayfield and this passing attack is since Odell Beckham went down for the season with his ACL injury as they’ve played in ugly conditions in two straight games. Mayfield has averaged just 127 passing yards per game in that two-game stretch, and he could face tough conditions again this week. An individual passer hasn’t reached 240+ passing yards against the Eagles since Joe Burrow in Week 3.
  • The Browns used an ugly rotation at WR out of their bye week with Jarvis Landry, Rashard Higgins, and KhaDarel Hodge each playing 58% of the snaps while Donovan Peoples-Jones saw a 25% share.
  • Landry is averaging a 35% target share in his first two games without OBJ but it’s translated into just 7/81 receiving on 16 targets in ugly conditions. The Eagles allowed 4/59 receiving on five targets out of the slot last week.
  • Higgins led the Browns in receiving, which translated into just 3/48 receiving. Sterling Shepard posted 6/47 receiving in this matchup last week.
  • Austin Hooper caught his only target for 11 yards last week but he saw a skill-position high 85% of the snaps last week. Evan Engram managed just 2/15 receiving in this matchup last week.
  • With Nick Chubb back in the lineup, the Browns grounded out a victory over the Texans with 231 rushing yards. Chubb posted 19/126/1 rushing despite running out of bounds on his breakaway run at the end of the game. Chubb is now averaging 19.2 FPG in four full games next to Kareem Hunt. The Eagles are allowing just 3.4 YPC but Wayne Gallman fell into the end zone twice last week despite averaging just 2.9 YPC.
  • Hunt posted 19/104 rushing and 3/28 receiving with Chubb back in the lineup last week. He’s averaging 16.7 FPG in his four games next to Chubb, giving the Browns a pair of top-12 RBs. The Eagles are allowing just 3.9/31.9 receiving per game to RBs without a receiving TD.

Brolley’s Bets

Under 48 points (Best Bet)

Philadelphia Eagles +3.5 (Staff Pick Lean)

New England Patriots (4-5, 4-5 ATS) at Houston Texans (2-7, 2-7), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Patriots 25.25, Texans 23.25
  • Spread/Total Movements: Texans -1 to Pats -2, 47.5 to 48.5
  • Weather: Dome
  • Patriots Injuries to Watch: RB Damien Harris (chest/ankle), CB Stephon Gilmore (knee), LB Ja’Whaun Bentley (groin)
  • Texans Injuries to Watch: LT Laremy Tunsil (illness), P Bryan Anger (quad)

Patriots Trends

  • New England is 5-1 toward overs in its last six road games.
  • Cam Newton has climbed out of a mini-rut with 16+ FP in three straight games. Newton has topped out at 21 rushing yards in three of his last four games, but his sub-par performances came against good run outfits in the 49ers, the Jets, and the Ravens. He should get back on track this week against a bad Texans defense that’s allowing a league-high 167.4 rushing yards per game. Cam has more rushing TDs (9) than games played (8) this season. He also has more INTs (9) than passing TDs (3) this season.
  • Jakobi Meyers has 4+ catches and 58+ receiving yards in four straight games on 9.3 targets per game. Cam skipped a pass off the turf to a wide-open Meyers in the end zone last week or else he’d have 23+ FP in two consecutive games. Jarvis Landry posted just 3/29 receiving in this matchup last week in tough conditions.
  • Damien Harris has averaged more than 5.0 YPC in five of his six games this season. He hasn’t quite broken through for fantasy with just one TD and two catches this season. That could change this week against a Texans defense that’s allowed 230+ rushing yards to three different teams this season.
  • Rex Burkhead has double-digit touches and 15+ FP in two consecutive games. Harris led this backfield with a 55% snap share last week while Burkhead saw a 34% share and James White had just a 17% share. Kareem Hunt posted 19/104 rushing and 3/28 receiving as the all-around back against the Texans last week.

Texans Trends

  • The Texans will allow fans at nearly 20% capacity this week.
  • The Texans covered for just the second time in nine games this season but it took Nick Chubb running out of bounds at the one-yard line on a breakaway run to do so.
  • They also covered as an underdog for the first time in eight tries.
  • Houston is 4-1 toward unders in its last five home games.
  • Duke Johnson played 95% of the snaps last week with David Johnson (concussion, IR) out, which translated into just 14/54 rushing without a target. The Patriots have faced two broken run games in the Ravens and the Jets the last two weeks, and they’re still allowing 140.0 scrimmage yards per game to RBs.
  • Deshaun Watson had a game to forget in ugly conditions last week as he scored a season-low 14.1 FPG. He’ll be back indoors this week against a Patriots defense that’s been gashed for 21+ FP by Joe Flacco and Lamar Jackson in the last two weeks.
  • The Patriots secondary has been hurt by the absence of Stephon Gilmore (knee). Will Fuller failed to hit double-digit FP for just the second time last week while playing in bad conditions. Breshad Perriman ripped the Patriots for 5/101/2 receiving in Week 9.
  • Brandin Cooks just missed reaching double-digit FP last week for the fifth game in a row since Bill O’Brien left as he had to settle for 6/39 receiving. Denzel Mims posted 4/62 receiving in this matchup two weeks ago.
  • Randall Cobb has stumbled the last two weeks with a combined 6/62 receiving after reaching 10+ FP in three straight games. Willie Snead led the Ravens passing attack last week with 5/64/2 receiving against the Patriots.

Brolley’s Bets

Houston Texans +2 (Staff Pick Lean)

Damien Harris (NE) over 63.5 rushing yards (Best Bet)

Pittsburgh Steelers (9-0, 7-2 ATS) at Jacksonville Jaguars (1-8, 4-5), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Steelers 28.25, Jaguars 17.75
  • Spread/Total Movements: 10 to 10.5, 47.5 to 46
  • Weather: 77 degrees, clear, 10-15 mph
  • Steelers Injuries to Watch: None of note.
  • Jaguars Injuries to Watch: CB C.J. Henderson (groin, IR), RB Chris Thompson (back, IR), QB Gardner Minshew (thumb, out), WR Laviska Shenault (hamstring), RB Devine Ozigbo (hamstring)

Steelers Trends

  • The Steelers are the last remaining unbeaten team and they share the league’s best ATS record with the Dolphins at 7-2.
  • Cincinnati finished a dreadful 0-for-13 on third downs against the Steelers last week.
  • Ben Roethlisberger has attempted 42+ passes in three out of his last four games with their rushing attack stuck in the mud after failing to reach 42+ attempts in his first five games. He’s thrown for 639 yards and seven TDs over the last two weeks, and three straight QBs have thrown for 280+ yards and multiple TDs against them.
  • Pittsburgh’s big three WRs each cleared 21+ FP in Week 10. Diontae Johnson led the way last week with 6/116/1 receiving on 11 targets (23.9% share) for 23.6 FP. He’s now seen double-digit targets and a 28% share in each of his five full games. Marquez Valdes-Scantling went nuts in this matchup last week with 4/149/1 receiving.
  • JuJu Smith-Schuster posted 9/77/1 receiving on 13 targets (28.3% share) for 22.7 FP last week. JuJu now has 6+ catches and 65+ yards in four straight games.
  • Chase Claypool added 4/56/2 receiving on 10 targets (21.7% share) for 21.3 FP last week. He’s clearly distanced himself from James Washington with 9+ targets in three straight games. Davante Adams posted 8/66/1 receiving in this matchup last week.
  • Eric Ebron had a three-game run with 11+ FP snapped last week, but he saw 6+ targets for the fifth time in his last seven games. He’s topped out at 52 yards this season with these WRs dominating every week. The Jaguars are allowing 14.1 YPR to TEs and the seventh-most FPG to the position (14.6).
  • James Conner has managed just 10.8 FP in his last two games after running off 14+ FP in six straight games in Week 2-8. He managed just 13/36 rushing and he caught his only two targets for 12 yards despite playing 88% of the snaps with the Steelers racking up six scoring drives against the Bengals. Conner has just 37/105 rushing over the last three weeks for a 2.8 YPC average, and he’s averaging a career-low 6.1 YPR as a receiver. The Steelers should at least have a positive game script as 10-point road favorites and the Jags are giving up the sixth-most FPG to RBs (27.5).

Jaguars Trends

  • The Jaguars will allow fans at nearly 25% capacity this week.
  • Jacksonville has covered two straight spreads after a five-game ATS losing streak.
  • The Jaguars had allowed 30+ points in six straight games and 400+ total yards in four straight games before their bye. They’ve kept both the Packers and the Texans below 30 points and 400 total yards over the last two weeks.
  • James Robinson handled 28 of the 30 RB opportunities against the Packers with Dare Ogunbowale seeing the other two targets. Robinson posted 23/109 rushing and 2/3 receiving on five targets, but he could’ve had a much bigger day if he didn’t have two longer touchdown runs wiped out by holding calls. Robinson now has 22+ carries in three straight games and 20 opportunities per game might be his floor going forward with Chris Thompson out of the lineup. Unfortunately, his schedule is about to get much tougher starting with the Steelers, who are allowing a league-low 17.7 FPG to RBs.
  • Jake Luton and this passing attack will also have a tough matchup as they just limited another rookie, Joe Burrow, to 213/1 passing. No quarterback has reached 20+ FP against the Steelers this season.
  • D.J. Chark managed 4/56 receiving in his second game with Luton in some windy conditions in Green Bay. The Steelers have given up some big plays on the perimeter, and rookie Tee Higgins posted 7/115/1 receiving last week.
  • Laviska Shenault (hamstring) will try to return this week after getting some limited practices last week. Keelan Cole had just 3/18 receiving in two games between Weeks 7-9 before exploding for 5/47/1 receiving with a punt-return TD with Shenault out of the lineup last week.

Brolley’s Bets

Jacksonville Jaguars +10.5 (Staff Pick Lean)

Chase Claypool (Pit) over 47.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Atlanta Falcons (3-6, 4-5 ATS) at New Orleans Saints (7-2, 4-5), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Falcons 23.75, Saints 27.75
  • Spread/Total Movements: 5 to 4, 51.5 to 50 to 51.5
  • Weather: Dome
  • Falcons Injuries to Watch: WR Calvin Ridley (foot)
  • Saints Injuries to Watch: QB Drew Brees (ribs, out), RB Alvin Kamara (foot), WR Tre’Quan Smith (concussion), TE Josh Hill (concussion)

Falcons Trends

  • The Falcons have won three out of four games coming out of their bye since firing Dan Quinn, with their only outright and ATS loss coming in Detroit's last-second victory over them.
  • Atlanta is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games.
  • These teams are 5-1 toward unders in their last six meetings.
  • Matt Ryan has averaged 318.5 passing yards per game and 8.7 YPA with eight TDs to two INTs since Raheem Morris took over the team four games ago. The Saints defense has been heating up since their Week 6 bye as no QB has reached 20+ FP in their last four games after all five QBs they faced posted 22+ FP to start the season. The Saints limited Ryan to 494/4 passing with three INTs in two games last season.
  • Julio Jones has been scorching since he returned from his hamstring injury, averaging 7.9/106.3/.8 receiving on 9.0 targets per game in his last four contests. Julio has just three career TDs against the Saints but he’s averaging 5.9/92.7 receiving per game in 16 career contests against New Orleans.
  • Calvin Ridley could return this week off his foot injury, and he had 11/119 receiving on 15 targets in two games against the Saints last season. Olamide Zaccheaus would likely be the next man up if Ridley can’t play as he was in Week 9 when he posted 4/103/1 receiving on six targets against the Broncos. He played on 73% of the snaps while Christian Blake saw just 17%.
  • Hayden Hurst has been heating up with four straight games with 10+ FP since Morris took over, which includes 4+ catches and 54+ yards in each of those contests. Jordan Reed posted 5/62 receiving in this matchup last week.
  • Todd Gurley’s fantasy production has been driven by nine touchdowns, which has accounted for 39.9% of his 135.5 fantasy points this season. He’s averaging just 2.6 YPC (80/209 rushing) in his first four games since Morris took over. The Saints have allowed just three rushing TDs to RBs this season.

Saints Trends

  • New Orleans will allow up to 6,000 fans this week.
  • The Saints played under the total for just the second time last week.
  • The Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with the Falcons.
  • Adam Schefter reported Friday morning that Taysom Hill would start over Jameis Winston with Drew Brees (ribs) out of the lineup for at least the next two weeks. ESPN’s Dianna Russini also reported that Winston will not be part of any offensive packages this week. It’s an overall downgrade for all elements of this passing attack with the Saints likely going with more of a run-heavy approach with Hill at quarterback.
  • Hill played a season-high 22 snaps last week, which included nine snaps at QB after Brees left. Hill’s production actually went down with Teddy Bridgewater in the lineup last season, but this year’s scenario is much different with Winston. Bridgewater spent an entire season and an entire off-season in 2018-19 with the Saints before he took over the offense so Sean Payton trusted much more to run his offense. Hill also signed a contract with $16 million in guaranteed money this off-season. Hill’s 5.0 FPG average will be on the rise for as long as Brees is out of the lineup. Hill was averaging 20.7 rushing yards per game while playing 16.6 snaps per game through nine games. He’s thrown just 18 career passes over three seasons for 205 yards (11.4 YPA). The Falcons have a solid run defense but they’re allowing 26.9 FPG to QBs this season.
  • Alvin Kamara bounced back from his first “down” game in Week 9 when he had 15.9 FP by totaling 98/3 scrimmage in a tougher matchup against the 49ers. The Falcons are allowing the sixth-fewest FPG to RBs (20.9), but they’re at least allowing a solid 5.9/41.1/.4 receiving per game to backs.
  • Michael Thomas’ season from hell continues with news that Hill will be the starting quarterback. Thomas has just 7/78 receiving in his first two games back despite seeing a 30% target share last week. He needs to quickly get on the same page with his new QBs but he does get a friendly matchup this week against a Falcons defense that’s allowing the third-most FPG to WRs (44.8).
  • Tre’Quan Smith took a big hit last week, which has his status up in the air for this week. Emmanuel Sanders couldn’t take advantage last week with just a five-yard catch on his only target, and he has just 5/43/1 receiving since Thomas returned to the lineup. The Broncos had three WRs reach 12+ FP against the Falcons in their last games.
  • Jared Cook failed to catch either of his two targets last week and he has just 2/30 receiving on five targets since Thomas came back two weeks ago. The Falcons are giving up a league-high 6.1/66.3/.9 receiving per game to TEs this season.

Brolley’s Bets

Atlanta Falcons +5 (Best Bet)

Hayden Hurst (Atl) over 3.5 receptions (Best Bet)

Cincinnati Bengals (2-6-1, 6-3) at Washington Football Team (2-7, 4-5), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Bengals 22.5, Washington 24
  • Spread/Total Movements: 2 to 1.5, 45 to 46.5
  • Weather: 57 degrees, clear, 5 mph
  • Bengals Injuries to Watch: RB Joe Mixon (foot), WR Tee Higgins (illness), RG Alex Redmond (biceps), CB Tony Brown (foot)
  • Washington Injuries to Watch: LT Cornelius Lucas (ankle), OT Geron Christian (knee, IR)

Bengals Trends

  • Cincinnati finished a dreadful 0-for-13 on third downs against the Steelers.
  • The Bengals are 4-0 ATS against teams with losing records.
  • Cincinnati is 3-0-1 toward overs in its last four games.
  • The Bengals are looking for their first road win since Week 4 of 2018 — they’re 0-17-1 since then.
  • Joe Burrow managed just 213/1 passing against the Steelers last with a 5.3 YPA average. He’s leading the league with 41.1 passes per game, but he’s failed to reach 19+ FP in five of his last six games. The Football Team is allowing the second-fewest passing yards per game (214.2), but they’re also facing the second-fewest pass attempts per game (29.3).
  • Tee Higgins is now averaging 75.4 receiving yards per game since becoming a full-time player in Week 2, and he’s reached double-digit FP in seven straight games. Higgins ran a season-high 15 routes from the slot last week as this coaching staff continues to expand how they use him. Marvin Jones posted 8/96/1 receiving in this matchup last week.
  • Tyler Boyd has 5+ catches in four straight games and in seven of his last eight games. CB Jimmy Moreland is allowing just .94 yards per slot route run this season, but they haven’t been tested much out of the slot.
  • A.J. Green totaled 15/178 receiving in Weeks 6-7, but he now has 16/138 receiving in his other seven games this season after posting a big goose egg on five targets against the Steelers in Week 10.
  • Joe Mixon went from being day-to-day when he first suffered his foot injury to being week-to-week as we head into a second month since he initially injured his foot in Week 6. Gio Bernard managed a pair of 20+ FP performances in his first two games without Mixon, but he finally disappointed as his fill-in last week in a brutal matchup with the Steelers. Mixon needs to see the practice field this week if he has any chance of playing or else we’re likely to get a fourth game with Gio operating as the top back for the Bengals. D’Andre Swift (149/1 scrimmage) and Wayne Gallman (77/1) have each come through against the Football Team the last two weeks.

Washington Trends

  • Washington won’t have fans in attendance this week.
  • Washington is 4-1 toward unders in its last five games.
  • The Football Team has failed to cover four straight games as a favorite.
  • Alex Smith attempted 55 passes last week but he finished with just 16.0 FP last week. He ranks dead last out of 35 quarterbacks in aDOT at 5.3 yards. The Bengals have allowed 3+ passing TDs and 25+ FPG in three of their last four games.
  • J.D. McKissic has been the biggest beneficiary from Smith entering the lineup as he’s seen an absurd 29 targets the last two weeks, which he’s turned into 16/108 receiving for 3.7 YPT. The Bengals are allowing the fourth-fewest RB catches per game (3.7) and Washington enters as short home favorites.
  • McKissic stole a goal-line touchdown from Antonio Gibson last week but the rookie still totaled 65/2 scrimmage against the Lions. The Bengals are allowing the fourth-most rushing yards per game to RBs (115.7), and Washington is actually favored this week.
  • Terry McLaurin has posted exactly seven catches and 74+ yards in four straight games, and he’s seen 7+ targets in every game this season. Three Steelers WRs posted 21+ FP against the Bengals last week, including Diontae Johnson who turned in 6/116/1 receiving.
  • Logan Thomas barely reached 10+ FP last week with 4/66 receiving on six targets, but his stat line was still good enough to finish as the TE6 last week. Thomas has 40+ receiving yards in three out of his last four games. He’s also seen at least four targets in every game this season, which shouldn’t change going forward with Smith at quarterback. Thomas gets a matchup against a Bengals defense that’s allowing the second-most FPG to TEs (16.4), including the second-most receiving yards to the position (64.8).

Brolley’s Bets

Cincinnati Bengals +2/+105 (Best Bet)

A.J. Green (Cin) under 44.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Antonio Gibson (Was) over 49.5 rushing yards (Best Bet)

Samaje Perine (Cin) over 20.5 rushing yards (Best Bet)

Late Afternoon Games

Miami Dolphins (6-3, 7-2 ATS) at Denver Broncos (3-6, 5-4), 4:05 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Dolphins 24.25, Broncos 20.75
  • Spread/Total Movements: 2.5 to 3.5, 44.5 to 45
  • Weather: 45 degrees, clear, 5 mph
  • Dolphins Injuries to Watch: LB Kyle Van Noy (hip), RG Solomon Kindley (foot)
  • Broncos Injuries to Watch: QB Drew Lock (ribs), TE Noah Fant (ribs), WR Jerry Jeudy (ankle), CB A.J. Bouye (hip)

Dolphins Trends

  • The Dolphins share the league’s best ATS record with the Steelers at 7-2.
  • Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins stretched their record to 3-0 overall and to 3-0 ATS with their easy victory over the Chargers.
  • Miami is on a five-game ATS win streak overall and they’re now sitting just a half-game behind the Bills for first place in the AFC East.
  • Miami is covering spreads by 10.6 points, which is best in the league.
  • Tua is averaging just 25.0 attempts and 168.3 passing yards per game with the Dolphins playing from ahead in each of his first three starts, and they’re three-point road favorites this week. Derek Carr played the game-manager role against the Broncos last week with 154 scoreless passing yards.
  • DeVante Parker has seen a 22% target share in his first three games with Tua, which has translated into just 9/98/1 passing on 16 targets. The Broncos gave up four performances of 16+ FP against the Falcons and the Chargers in Weeks 8-9 before facing the Raiders last week.
  • Jakeem Grant is the #2 WR for the time being behind Parker, and Jakeem led the Dolphins with 4/43/1 receiving on five targets last week. He ran a route on 81% of Tua’s dropbacks last week, which was behind only Parker at 100%.
  • Mike Gesicki has seen a 15% target share with Tua, but he’s turned his looks into 6/90 receiving without a single game with eight or more FP. He’s reached 9+ FP just once in his last seven games.
  • Salvon Ahmed saw a 78% snap share last week and he finished with 21/85/1 rushing while catching his only target for five yards against the Chargers in Week 10. Matt Breida is likely to return to the lineup after practicing this week, but my prediction is that Ahmed will remain in the lead runner role with Breida likely working as a change-of-pace/passing option next to Ahmed. Denver got absolutely annihilated by the Raiders on the ground last week to the tune of 37/193/4 rushing by Josh Jacobs and Devontae Booker.

Broncos Trends

  • The Broncos will allow up to 5,700 fans this week
  • Denver has failed to cover in three of its last four games, and the only game it covered in that stretch came on the final play of the game in its miraculous victory over the Chargers.
  • Drew Lock has averaged more than 6.5 YPA in just one of his six full games this season, and he’s thrown 10 INTs in his last five games. He picked up an injury last week, which has him in doubt in a tough matchup. Brett Rypien would be the next man up if the Broncos decide to give Lock a week to recover. Rypien averaged 7.4 YPA with two TDs and four INTs on 40 attempts earlier this season, 31 of which came against the Jets in Week 4.
  • Jerry Jeudy has an aDOT of 15.3 yards since he became a primary perimeter WR in Week 8 and he’s easily leading the league with 490 air yards in that span. The usage has translated into his three-best yardage games with 68+ yards in each contest. Top WRs Keenan Allen (3/39/1) and DeAndre Hopkins (3/30) have struggled against the Dolphins the last two weeks.
  • K.J. Hamler has 13/138/1 receiving on 23 targets for 34.3 FP since he switched roles with Jeudy and moved to the slot in Week 8. He’s also seen a 75% snap share or better in those three games.
  • Tim Patrick now has 10+ FP and 4+ catches in five of his last six games. Patrick did split snaps with Daesean Hamilton last week, holding a 59% to 44% snap share edge. The Dolphins held Mike Williams to just 2/38 receiving and Josh Reynolds had 4/44 receiving against them in Week 8.
  • Noah Fant picked up a rib injury to go along with the ankle injury he’s been laboring through for over the last month. He hasn’t reached 50+ receiving yards in his last six games after reaching the mark in his first two games this season. The Dolphins have given up three TDs to tight ends in the last two weeks with Hunter Henry posting 4/30/1 receiving last week.
  • Melvin Gordon had 11/46 rushing without a catch last week while Phillip Lindsay managed just 4/2 rushing without a catch so they combined 4.8 FP last week. Gordon hasn’t topped 21 receiving yards in a game while Lindsay has just 14 receiving yards all season long. The Dolphins are allowing 4.5 YPC to RBs this season, but they’ve held Kalen Ballage and Chase Edmonds to a combined 3.2 YPC (43/138 rushing).

Brolley’s Bets

Miami Dolphins -2.5 (Best Bet)

New York Jets (0-9, 2-7 ATS) at Los Angeles Chargers (2-7, 5-4), 4:05 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Jets 18.25, Chargers 27.75
  • Spread/Total Movements: 9 to 9.5, 47 to 46
  • Weather: Dome
  • Jets Injuries to Watch: QB Sam Darnold (throwing shoulder, out), WR Breshad Perriman (shoulder), CB Bless Auston (neck), DL Quinnen Williams (hamstring)
  • Chargers Injuries to Watch: DE Joey Bosa (concussioN), RT Bryan Bulaga (back), CB Casey Hayward (ankle)

Jets Trends

  • The Jets snapped a four-game under streak in their 30-27 loss to the Patriots in Week 9.
  • New York has covered consecutive games after an 0-7 ATS start.
  • Joe Flacco will get another start with Sam Darnold out again, and he’s coming off a season-best 263/3 passing against the Patriots with New York’s full cast at his disposal. The Chargers have allowed multiple passing TDs in four straight games but three of those QBs (Tua, Car, Minshew) failed to reach 175 passing yards.
  • Breshad Perriman finally showed some promise before their Week 9 bye with 5/101/2 receiving against the Patriots. He previously had just 11/118 receiving in his first four games during an injury-riddled start to the season. DeVante Parker managed just 2/31 receiving on seven targets in this matchup last week.
  • Rookie Denzel Mims has 42+ receiving yards in each of his first three games since returning from his hamstring injury, and he’s seen a solid 25.3% target share.
  • Jamison Crowder lost momentum with Mims and Perriman back on the field in Week 9. He luckily turned one of his two targets into a 20-yard touchdown to give him double-digit FP in all five of his games. Jakeem Grant posted 4/43/1 receiving in this matchup last week.
  • The coaching staff has said they’ll use La’Mical Perine more out of their bye week. He has yet to impress in four games since getting a bigger role, posting 32/113/1 rushing (3.5 YPC) and 8/50 receiving on 10 targets. Salvon Ahmed had a breakout performance against the Chargers last week with 21/85/1 rushing and five different RBs have topped 10+ FP in the last three weeks against Los Angeles.

Chargers Trends

  • The Chargers dropped to 3-16 in one-score games since the start of 2019 in their 29-21 loss to the Dolphins.
  • Los Angeles has failed to cover three straight spreads after running off three straight covers before that.
  • The Chargers have played over the total in six straight games.
  • Justin Herbert finally looked like a rookie last week and he still posted 21+ FP for the seventh time in eight starts. He averaged 5.8 YPA and finished with fewer than 260 passing yards for the first time this season — he has 187 yards. He should bounce right back against a Jets defense that’s allowing the fifth-most passing yards per game (287.1).
  • With Herbert at the helm, Keenan Allen had his six (full) game run with double-digit targets snapped. He finished with just 3/39 receiving but he did find the end zone for the third straight game and the fourth time in five games. Jakobi Meyers ripped the Jets for 12/169 receiving the last time New York took the field.
  • Mike Williams went back to disappointing as soon as he earned a little trust with just 2/38 receiving after posting 10/180/1 receiving in Weeks 8-9. Damiere Byrd posted 5/65 receiving in this matchup two weeks ago.
  • Hunter Henry hasn’t topped 33 receiving yards in each of his last five games despite posting four catches in four of the five games. He at least snapped a four-game scoreless drought against the Dolphins to help him reach double-digit FP for the first time since Week 5. The Jets are allowing 4.4/51.4/.7 receiving per game to TEs this season for 13.6 FPG (13th-most).
  • Kalen Ballage saw 46 snaps to Joshua Kelley’s 17 snaps last week while Troymaine Pope didn’t see a single offensive snap. Ballage finished with 18/68 rushing and 5/34 receiving against the Dolphins, which gave him consecutive games with 17+ touches and 15+ FP. Damien Harris and Rex Burkhead combined for 138/1 scrimmage against the Jets in Week 9.

Brolley’s Bets

Los Angeles Chargers -8.5 (Staff Pick Lean)

Green Bay Packers (7-2, 6-3 ATS) at Indianapolis Colts (6-3, 5-4), 4:25 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Packers 24.25, Colts 26.75
  • Spread/Total Movements: 1.5 to 2.5, 49.5 to 51
  • Weather: Dome
  • Packers Injuries to Watch: WR Davante Adams (ankle), CB Jaire Alexander (concussion), WR Allen Lazard (core) TE Marcedes Lewis (knee), RB Tyler Ervin (wrist)
  • Colts Injuries to Watch: TE Mo Alie-Cox (knee), TE Jack Doyle (concussion), DT Denico Autry (illness)

Packers Trends

  • The Packers are 6-3 toward overs this season.
  • Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last five road games.
  • Aaron Rodgers has thrown for multiple TDs in eight of his nine games, and he’s run off 22+ FP and 280+ passing yards in four straight games since his dud in Tampa in Week 6. The Colts have allowed passing multiple TDs just three times this season after limiting Ryan Tannehill to just 147/1 passing last week.
  • Davante Adams missed practice time this week for his bothersome ankle injury. Adams has nine touchdowns in just seven games and he has 6+ catches in five straight games since returning to the lineup. The Colts limited A.J. Brown to a 21-yard catch last week but he did drop a potential 72-yard touchdown.
  • HC Matt LaFleur said this week that Allen Lazard would be eased back into the lineup, but we’ll see if they stick to that if Adams would miss this week. Lazard posted 18+ FP in two of his first three games before needing surgery. The Colts are allowing just 11.3 catches per game to WRs (4th-fewest).
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling failed to reach double-digit in six games from Weeks 2-8, but he’s caught fire the last two weeks with 6/202/3 receiving on 10 targets. The Colts zone defense does a great job of keeping the ball in front of them, but Brown dropped a long TD last week and Marvin Hall popped for 4/113 receiving in Week 8 so it’s not impossible.
  • Robert Tonyan has posted 7+ FP and 35+ receiving yards just once in his last five games. He did have two biggest games in Weeks 3-4 when Adams was out of the lineup as he posted 11/148/4 receiving on 11 targets during that stretch. The Colts have limited Jonnu Smith (2/14 receiving) and Mark Andrews (3/22) through the air in the last two weeks.
  • Aaron Jones saw 13 carries and six targets in Week 10 compared to eight carries and four targets for Jamaal Williams. Jones has just 38/129/1 rushing (3.4 YPC) over his last three games but he’s still seen 5+ targets and 3+ catches in six of his seven games. Derrick Henry was the first RB to reach 65+ rushing yards against the Colts last week as they’re limiting RBs to 3.4 YPC. Backs are also averaging just 4.6/29.8 receiving per game against the Colts.

Colts Trends

  • The Colts will allow up to 12,500 fans to attend this week.
  • The Colts are 4-1 toward overs in their last five games.
  • The Colts are airing it out more in recent weeks with Philip Rivers attempting 33+ passes in five straight games after he failed to reach 30+ attempts in three straight games from Weeks 2-4. He’s had three of his four-best fantasy performances over his last four games. The Packers have limited the likes of Jake Luton, Nick Mullens, and Kirk Cousins to 14 or fewer FP over their last three games.
  • Michael Pittman has emerged as the go-to receiver for Rivers after posting 7/101 receiving with a 22.2% target share and a 21-yard carry in a break-out performance last week. He has team-bests in target share (20%), air yards share (33%), and red-zone targets (4) over his last two games. He’s also run 44% of his snaps from the slot since he returned to the lineup in Week 8 after playing just 9% of the snaps inside to start the year. That’s important this week with one of the league’s top CBs Jaire Alexander lurking on the perimeter.
  • T.Y. Hilton has reached double-digit FP just once in eight games this season as he’s averaging just 3.3 catches and 36.4 receiving yards per game.
  • Trey Burton and Mo Alie-Cox each saw four targets last week with Jack Doyle (concussion), but they turned those looks into just 6/43 receiving. The Packers have been the toughest fantasy matchup for TEs as they’re allowing just 3.2/41.0/.1 receiving per game.
  • Nyheim Hines got the hot-hand in Week 10 against the Titans as he posted 12/70/1 rushing and 5/45/1 receiving on 56% of the snaps. Jonathan Taylor frustrated again with 7/12 rushing and 2/25 receiving on 24% of the snaps while Jordan Wilkins managed 8/28 rushing without a catch on 20% of the snaps. Hines has been running the hottest in recent weeks but HC Frank Reich has been giving each of these backs a chance to play early each week. The Packers are allowing the second-most FPG to RBs (31.7) as they’re allowing 100.6/1.2 rushing and 6.0/53.4/.4 receiving per game backs.

Brolley’s Bets

Green Bay Packers +2 (Staff Pick Lean)

Michael Pittman (Ind) over 46.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Dallas Cowboys (2-7, 1-8 ATS) at Minnesota Vikings (4-5, 6-3), 4:25 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Cowboys 20.25, Vikings 27.25
  • Spread/Total Movements: 8.5 to 7, 46.5 to 47.5
  • Weather: Dome
  • Cowboys Injuries to Watch: C Tyler Biadasz (hamstring), DE Randy Gregory (illness), DE DeMarcus Lawrence (illness)
  • Vikings Injuries to Watch: TE Irv Smith (groin), FB C.J. Ham (COVID-19 list), RG Ezra Cleveland (ankle), DL Hercules Mata’afa (ankle), CB Cameron Dantzler (concussion)

Cowboys Trends

  • The Cowboys were the last team to cover a spread this season in their 24-19 loss to the Steelers as 14-point home underdogs.
  • Dallas has played under the total in four straight games.
  • Ezekiel Elliott struggled through a hamstring injury in Week 9 against the Steelers as he finished with 18/51 rushing and 2/18 receiving on three targets, which gives him three straight games with fewer than nine FP. He’s fallen below 4.0 YPC in each of those three games after averaging 2.8 YPC last week, and he’s now easily averaging a career-low 3.8 YPC. The Vikings haven’t allowed an RB rushing TD since Week 5 and no individual back has topped 75 rushing yards since Week 3.
  • Tony Pollard continues to look like he’s been shot out of a cannon when he gets the rock after he posted 9/57 rushing against the Steelers to bring his YPC average up to 4.4.
  • Andy Dalton will return to the lineup after missing the last two games. He averaged just 4.7 YPA with one TD and three INTs in his one-plus starts in Weeks 6-7 before suffering his concussion against the Football Team in Week 7. The Vikings suffocated Nick Foles last week, allowing just 106 passing yards with an INT.
  • Amari Cooper has 12+ FP in three of his first four games since Dak Prescott left the lineup with 5+ catches and 65+ yards in those games. The Vikings have held top perimeter WRs Allen Robinson (6/43 receiving) and Marvin Jones (3/43/1) in check the last two weeks.
  • CeeDee Lamb has fallen below five catches in three straight games after reaching that mark in each of his first six games. Danny Amendola had 7/77 receiving on 10 targets in this matchup two weeks ago.
  • Michael Gallup saw 19 targets for 10/97 receiving in the last two games without Dalton, but he had just eight targets for 2/23 in the two games started by Dalton. Gallup has just one TD this season but the Vikings are allowing a league-high 1.8 TDs per game to WRs.
  • Dalton Schultz posted 10/103 receiving on 15 targets in Weeks 8-9 before their bye playing with Garrett Gilbert and Ben DiNucci. Schultz has 4+ catches in six of his last eight games. The Vikings weren’t tested by Chicago’s passing game in Week 10, but Minnesota had allowed 12+ FP to TEs in three straight games before last week.

Vikings Trends

  • The Vikings won’t have fans in attendance this week.
  • Minnesota is 6-1 ATS in its last seven games.
  • The Vikings are 6-3 toward overs this season, and they’re 5-0 toward over in their last five home games.
  • Dalvin Cook reached 100+ scrimmage yards last week for the fifth time in six games, and he needed a career-high 34 touches to get to 116 yards. He failed to score a TD for the first time in eight games but he still has 13 scores. The Cowboys are allowing 126.6 rushing yards per game to RBs.
  • Kirk Cousins has thrown for 220+ yards with multiple TDs in four of his last five games. Cousins is leading the league in deep-ball rate at 17.6%, and he’s going to give Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen a couple of chances for big plays against this Cowboys secondary. The concern this week is that the Vikings build a big lead as seven-point home favorites and they limit their passing attempts like they did when Cousins attempted 14 passes in Week 8.
  • Jefferson is averaging 18.1 YPR and league-high 3.23 yards per route run after his huge game on Monday night in Week 10. He now has four games with 100+ yards and four games with 45 or fewer yards. The Cowboys secondary is allowing a generous 13.8 YPR to WRs.
  • Adam Thielen broke a two-game scoreless drought with two touchdowns last week, which gives him nine scores in as many games. He’s leading the league with 13 end-zone targets, and he’s converted eight of those looks into touchdowns. The Cowboys have allowed a league-high 1.8 TD receptions to WRs.
  • Kyle Rudolph had an eventful Week 10 with Irv Smith sitting out with a groin injury as he lost his first fumble on 443 career catches over 137 games. He also set season-highs in catches (4) and receiving yards (63) on his way to a TE10 finish. The Cowboys have allowed 11+ FP to Eric Ebron and Logan Thomas over their last two games to give these TEs a chance to come through.

Brolley’s Bets

Dallas Cowboys +7 (Staff Pick Lean)

Dalvin Cook (Min) over 97.5 rushing yards (Best Bet)

Kyle Rudolph (Min) under 2.5 receptions (Best Bet)

Sunday Night Football

Kansas City Chiefs (8-1, 6-3 ATS) at Las Vegas Raiders (6-3, 6-3), 8:20 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Chiefs 32.25, Raiders 24.25
  • Spread/Total Movements: 6.5 to 8, 56 to 56.5
  • Weather: Dome
  • Chiefs Injuries to Watch: RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire (illness), WR Sammy Watkins (hamstring/calf), RT Mitchell Schwartz (back), DE Taco Charlton (ankle), RB Darrell Williams (illness)
  • Raiders Injuries to Watch: RB Jalen Richard (chest), DE Clelin Ferrell (COVID-19 list), S Johnathan Abram (COVID-19 list), DE Arden Key (COVID-19 list), DT Johnathan Hankins (COVID-19 list), DT Maliek Collins (COVID-19 list), LT Kolton Miller (ankle)

Chiefs Trends

  • The Chiefs are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with a winning record.
  • Kansas City is 6-1 toward unders in their last seven road games.
  • Andy Reid teams are 18-3 overall and 14-7 ATS when his teams are coming off of their bye.
  • Patrick Mahomes turned in 788/9 passing without an INT in his last two games before their bye. His only interception this season came against the Raiders in Week 5 when he completed a season-worst 51.2% of his passes for 340/2 passing.
  • Travis Kelce distanced himself from the rest of a terrible fantasy TE class with 18/268/1 receiving in his last two games before his bye. Kelce posted 8/108/1 receiving in this matchup back in Week 5.
  • Tyreek Hill also went nuclear before their bye with 13/211/4 receiving for 58.9 FP in Weeks 8-9. He also went nuts against the Raiders back in Week 5, posting 8/108/1 receiving on 12 targets.
  • Sammy Watkins hasn’t played since he injured his hamstring against the Raiders back in Week 5 when he posted 2/24/1 receiving before his injury. Mecole Hardman started to heat up in his place over Demarcus Robinson, posting 12/201/1 receiving in Week 7-9 before their bye week. Watkins owned a 17% target share and a 20% air yards share in the first five weeks of the season compared to 9% and 3% for Hardman, respectively.
  • Clyde Edwards-Helaire has just 19/81 rushing and 7/47 receiving in three games since Le’Veon Bell entered the fold while Bell has 16/54 rushing and 4/26 receiving. It didn’t help that the Chiefs threw the ball 87 times in their last two games. CEH managed 10/40 rushing and 3/40 receiving on eight targets against the Raiders before Bell came to Kansas City.

Raiders Trends

  • The Raiders won’t have fans in attendance this week.
  • Las Vegas stunned the Chiefs 40-32 in Week 5 as 11-point road underdogs.
  • The Raiders are rolling with three straight outright wins and three covers, and they’ve covered in four out of their last five games.
  • Las Vegas is 7-2 toward overs this season.
  • Josh Jacobs and this Raiders rushing attack has crushed their last three opponents with 160+ rushing yards in each game in that stretch. The second-year pro has 66/306/3 rushing (4.6 YPC) in that span after posting 116/394/5 rushing (3.4 YPC) in his first six games. He did 23/77/2 rushing against the Chiefs in Week 5. He has a solid 3+ catches in six of his nine games if they’re chasing points this week.
  • Devontae Booker has 149/3 rushing over the last three weeks with the Raiders playing with some big leads late, which is unlikely to happen as seven-point home underdogs this week.
  • Derek Carr has posted three fantasy duds in a row after hanging 20+ FP in four of his five games from Weeks 2-7, but he did have two touchdowns dropped for touchdowns last week. Carr’s fantasy backslide has coincided with Las Vegas’ suddenly hot rushing attack as he’s averaging just 24.0 attempts per game in the last three weeks. The Raiders have been able to run at will on their last three opponents, but Carr should be forced to the air more against the Chiefs. Carr had his best fantasy performance of the season against the Chiefs back in Week 5. He completed 22/31 passes for 347 yards (11.2 YPA), three touchdowns, and one INT.
  • Darren Waller dropped a wide-open 68-yard touchdown last week, which kept him under 40 receiving yards for the third straight week. Carr should be forced to throw more this week, which will benefit Waller who had 5/48/1 receiving on seven targets in this matchup in Week 5.
  • The Raiders WRs have been a mess for fantasy over the last three weeks. Nelson Agholor dropped a six-yard touchdown last week and he has just 3/63 receiving. Henry Ruggs has managed just 7/74 receiving in his last four games after exploding for 2/118 receiving against the Chiefs in Week 5. Hunter Renfrow has reached double-digit FP once in his last five games. Kansas City is allowing just 11.6/138.1/.8 receiving per game to WRs.

Brolley’s Bets

Las Vegas Raiders +8 (Staff Pick Lean)

Tom is a Senior Writer at Fantasy Points who specializes in fantasy and betting analysis. He’ll be helping you to navigate the waiver wire and manage your fantasy teams while also keeping our betting content robust all year long, especially during the season. Tom's Best Bets against the spread won at 61.5% clip in 2019 and he was a perfect 8-0 on his Best Bets for season win totals in 2020.