Welcome to our Week 1 Game Hub with breakdowns of every contest from across the league. Our Tom Brolley gets you ready for this week’s action with the most important stats and trends for each fantasy-relevant player in the NFL. We also provide betting, weather, and injury reports with each game’s write-up to make sure you’re well-informed before you set lineups and/or place wagers. Let’s get to this week’s games!
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Week 1 Schedule
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles, 8:20 p.m., Thurs.
Cowboys Trends
Record: 7-10, 7-10 ATS
Dak Prescott owns a career 5.1% TD rate and was at 6.1% in 45 games from 2021-23 before last season’s struggles. His TD rate dipped to 3.8% before his season-ending hamstring injury. He also averaged 262.8 passing YPG in 2021-23 before dipping to 247.3 passing YPG in eight games last season. The Cowboys finished 17th in PROE (.7%), mostly with Cooper Rush at QB, but they should be more pass-heavy after acquiring George Pickens and trading Micah Parsons. The Eagles allowed the second-fewest passing YPG (192.1) and the fourth-fewest FPG (15.2) to QBs last season. Prescott missed both games against the Eagles last season.
CeeDee Lamb finished with a disappointing 6 TDs in 15 games last season, but Rush led the team in pass attempts after Prescott suffered a season-ending hamstring injury. He previously finished one score behind league leaders Tyreek Hill and Mike Evans in 2023, who each found paydirt 13 times. His YPR (13.0>11.8), receiving YPG (102.9>79.6), and targets per game (10.6>10.1) fell from 2023 to 2024. The Eagles gave up the eighth-fewest receiving YPG (67.5) and the second-fewest YPRR (1.53) to receivers aligned in the slot, but they lost Darius Slay and Avonte Maddox. Lamb mustered just 6/21 receiving in his lone matchup against the Eagles with Rush at QB.
The Cowboys were down to a 31-year-old Brandin Cooks as Dak’s #2 WR last season. They added George Pickens to play alongside Lamb, who will create a handful of touchdowns out of thin air because of his ability to score from anywhere on the field. He’s averaging 16.3 YPR and 9.7 YPT to start his career, and he’s set to see a significant upgrade at quarterback. Pickens scored just 3 times last season despite seeing 13 end-zone targets. The Eagles allowed the third-fewest receiving YPG (82.2) and the second-fewest YPRR (1.63) to receivers aligned out wide. Philadelphia gave up the fourth-fewest receptions (18) and the third-lowest completion percentage (29%) on passes of 20+ air yards.
The Cowboys and Jake Ferguson agreed to terms on a four-year, $52 million contract on July 27, which included $30 million in guaranteed money. The Cowboys are committed to Ferguson as the lead TE after his snap share dipped to 61.2% and his route share fell to 59.7% in the final four games last season. Ferguson finished as the TE10 (10.4) in his last full season with Prescott in 2023, posting 71/761/5 receiving on 102 targets. He averaged 10.4 FPG in Dak’s nine contests last season, which would’ve tied him with Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert as the TE10 over the full season. Prescott has a history of producing viable fantasy TE. Dalton Schultz averaged 66.0/666.7 receiving per season with 17 TDs from 2020-22, and a mid-30s Jason Witten averaged 65.0/587.3 receiving per season with 12 TDs in his final three NFL seasons playing with Dak. The Eagles allowed the second-fewest FPG (7.1) and the fewest receiving YPG (34.8) to TEs.
Javonte Williams is slated to be the Week 1 starter, followed by Jaydon Blue and Miles Sanders. Williams managed just a prove-it deal for just $3 million in his first trip to free agency. He averaged 4.4 YPC in his first 21 contests before dipping to 3.6 YPC in his last 33 games playing in Sean Payton’s committee backfields. Williams ranked 42nd in YPC (3.69), 40th in explosive run rate (2.9%), and 43rd in YACO/ATT (2.03) among 46 RBs who logged 100+ carries. The Eagles gave up the third-fewest adjusted YBC/ATT (1.63), the seventh-fewest rushing YPG (79.8), and the seventh-fewest receiving YPG (27.8) to RBs.
Eagles Trends
- Record: 18-3, 14-7 ATS
- Jalen Hurts authored a near-perfect performance to win the Super Bowl MVP in the last game of the 2024 season. He finished as a QB5 with 21.7 FPG in 15 games. His FPG average jumped to 22.9 in his 14 full contests. Hurts will see an uptick in fantasy production with more dropbacks after finishing behind only Lamar Jackson with .74 FP/DB. Hurts had his lowest designed rushing share of his career at 20.7%, which was still higher than any other QB. He averaged 9.3 YPC on scrambles (39/365/0 rushing), which was the third-highest average in the Fantasy Points Data era. He’s reached double-digit rushing TDs in four straight seasons and leads the league in rushing TDs since 2021 with 52. The Cowboys traded Micah Parsons, and Trevon Diggs (ACL) could be limited for a defense that allowed the most FPG (21.7) to QBs last season. Hurts posted 202/2 passing and 7/56/2 rushing with 2 turnovers in his lone game against the Cowboys last season.
- A.J. Brown posted his third straight 1000-yard season as an Eagle and his fifth in six NFL seasons. He reached 5+ receptions in 11-of-17 games and 84+ yards nine times (postseason included). He finished behind only Puka Nacau in YPRR (3.22) and Malik Nabers in target share (31.1%), but the Eagles attempted an NFL-low 25.7 pass attempts per game. Cowboys DC Matt Eberflus ran the second-highest rate of Cover 3 (44.5%) with the Bears last season, and Brown averaged 2.83 YPRR and .29 TPRR against the coverage. Brown totaled 5/109 receiving against the Cowboys with Hurts at QB, before turning in just 3/36/1 receiving with Kenny Pickett.
- DeVonta Smith has scored 7+ TDs in three straight seasons, but he’s coming off career lows in YPR (12.3), targets (89), and receiving yards (833) in just 13 appearances. He ranked 11th in target share (25%), 18th in YPRR (2.29), and third in catch rate (81%) among WRs who ran 200+ routes. Eberflus ran the second-highest rate of Cover 3 (44.5%) with the Bears last season, and Smith averaged 2.98 YPRR and .24 TPRR against the coverage. Smith mustered just 2/14 receiving against the Cowboys with Hurts at QB, before exploding for 6/120/2 receiving with Pickett.
- Dallas Goedert has finished as a top-12 TE in FPG in each of the last six seasons, but he’s missed 24 games and has never scored more than 5 TDs in a season during that span. He’s been able to get home for fantasy because of his ability with the rock in his hands, as he averages 11.7 YPR and 43.9 receiving YPG for his career. He finished behind only George Kittle in YPRR (2.37), fourth in YAC/REC (6.17), and fourth in YPT (9.54) last season. Brown and Smith are the clear top options, but Philly’s condensed aerial attack allowed Goedert to rank 10th in target share (18%) and eighth in TPRR (.25) at the position. Eberflus ran the second-highest rate of Cover 3 (44.5%) with the Bears last season, and Goedert averaged 3.21 YPRR and .31 TPRR against the coverage. Goedert posted 2/25/1 receiving on 3 targets in his lone game against the Cowboys last season, which came with Hurts at QB.
- Saquon Barkley is the deserving favorite to defend his rushing title after becoming the first player to run for 2000+ yards since Derrick Henry accomplished the feat in 2020. He led the league in attempts (345), rushing YPG (125.3), and rushing yards (2005) despite sitting out the season finale. Barkley led the league in YBCO/ATT (3.55) and explosive yards (835) behind the league’s best offensive line. Philadelphia’s 47.5% pass rate was the lowest over the past four seasons. He previously had issues staying on the field from 2019-21 in New York, but has racked up 996 carries over the last three years (postseason included). Dallas allowed 4.4 YPC, the fourth-most adjusted YBC/ATT (2.41), and the 12th-most FPG (21.2) to RBs last season. Barkley failed to find the end zone against the Cowboys last season, posting a combined 45/233 rushing in two games.
