Week 10 TNF Trends and Picks


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Week 10 TNF Trends and Picks

Examining trends for each team can help you make better-informed gambling and fantasy decisions. It’s never wise to bet a game based on a single trend and it’s also never wise to back off a wager based on a single trend, either. With that said, trends can point you in the right direction by corroborating stats and information you’ve gathered or they can make you reconsider making a bad wager based on flimsy data. I’ve gone game-by-game and compiled the most relevant trends for each team heading into this week’s contests. I’ve included any bets or leans I have for each game at the end of each writeup. Good luck with your wagers!

Thursday Night Football

Indianapolis Colts (5-3, 4-4 ATS) at Tennessee Titans (6-2, 3-5), 1 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Colts 24.75, Titans 23.75

  • Spread/Total Movements: Ten -2 to Ind -1, 50 to 48.5

  • Weather: 50 degrees, clear, light winds

  • Colts Injuries to Watch: TE Jack Doyle (concussion, out)

  • Titans Injuries to Watch: WR Corey Davis (personal), WR Adam Humphries (concussion, out), CB Adoree Jackson (knee, out), TE MyCole Pruitt (knee)

Colts Trends

  • The Colts are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 AFC South contests.

  • Indy is 4-1 toward overs in its last five road games.

  • Philip Rivers managed just 8.1 FPG against the Ravens last week despite attempting 43 passes, which snapped a two-game run with 22+ FP against the Lions and the Bengals. The Titans have allowed multiple passing TDs and 245+ passing yards to QBs in seven straight games.

  • T.Y. Hilton (groin) is trending toward returning this week to make the WR corps even tougher to sift through. Zach Pascal has scored the group’s only two touchdowns and Nyheim Hines is leading all receivers in receptions with 28. Hilton has caught more than three passes just once in his last six games and he’s yet to top 70+ receiving yards. Michael Pittman has had 5/62 receiving on eight targets since returning to the lineup two weeks ago, but he did play on 87% of the snaps last week.

  • At least the Titans are giving up the second-most FPG to WRs (46.9), including the second-most receptions per game (18.4) and the third-most receiving yards per game (203.9).

  • Trey Burton has seen 4+ targets in each of his five games this season, but he’s coming off a disappointing one-catch performance against the Ravens last week. Burton still ran the most routes (23) at the position for the Colts last week, and he could see more work this week with the Colts’ TE depth chart potentially thinned out a bit. Jack Doyle won’t play after suffering a concussion last week while Mo Alie-Cox has been dealing with a knee issue. The Titans have allowed three straight TEs to reach six catches and 50+ yards with TDs and two of those players, Jimmy Graham and Darren Fells, scored touchdowns.

  • Jordan Wilkins has out-snapped (62 to 47) and out-touched Jonathan Taylor (34 to 21) over the last two weeks. Taylor scored a touchdown last week but he had just six carries for 27 yards, and he had just two touches after his costly fumble that turned into a scoop-and-score for the Ravens. Hines is leading all Colts receivers with 28 catches but he’s topped three catches just once in his last five games. The Titans are giving up 4.5 YPC and just 4.0/29.5 receiving to RBs this season.

Titans Trends

  • The Titans are allowing spectators at nearly 12.5% capacity.

  • The favorite is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series.

  • The Titans are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite.

  • Derrick Henry has 18+ touches in every game this season, but he failed to reach 15+ FP last week for the second time in eight games. He has -3 receiving yards in his last three games and he doesn’t have a catch in his last two games. The Colts are limiting backs to 3.1 YPC and they limited J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards to 23/53/1 rushing last week.

  • Ryan Tannehill has fallen below 19 FP in three straight games after posting 19+ FP in four of his first five games. He’s still thrown for multiple scores in each of the last three weeks but he’s thrown for fewer than 235 yards. Just two QBs have reached 19+ FP against the Colts this season as they’re allowing an NFL-low 15.4 FPG to QBs.

  • A.J. Brown has scored in every game since returning to the lineup in Week 5, and he’s posted 20+ FP in four of those five contests. He’s also seen 7-to-9 targets in every game so far. Brown posted 4/101/1 receiving in a tough matchup against the Bears last week, and the Colts are allowing the 10th-fewest FPG to WRs (34.2).

  • Corey Davis posted a goose egg last week right when fantasy owners started to trust him. It came out Wednesday that his older brother, Titus Davis, passed away after battling a rare cancer. Titus Davis actually broke Antonio Brown’s Central Michigan receiving records before getting a cup of coffee in the NFL. Corey Davis had posted 11+ FP with 35+ receiving yards in every game before his tough matchup with the Bears. He did see 10 targets in each of two previous games so there’s some hope for a rebound.

  • Jonnu Smith has just 6/83/1 receiving over his last four games after posting 18/221/5 receiving in his first four games of the season. The Colts are the only team that’s yet to allow a touchdown to an opposing TE this season.

Brolley’s Bets

Tennessee Titans +1 (Best Bet)

Michael Pittman (Ind) over 30.5 receiving yards (Best Bet)

Tom is a Senior Writer at Fantasy Points who specializes in fantasy and betting analysis. He’ll be helping you to navigate the waiver wire and manage your fantasy teams while also keeping our betting content robust all year long, especially during the season. Tom's Best Bets against the spread won at 61.5% clip in 2019 and he was a perfect 8-0 on his Best Bets for season win totals in 2020.