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My power ratings are designed to be a starting point for point-spread betting between two teams. They take into account recent performances, long-term injuries, coaching, and strength of schedule. These ratings are intended to help predict performances in the present, but they’re not necessarily predictive for the rest of the season.
I will take my Power Ratings into account when I make my weekly against the spread picks for the week, but I’ll also consider current injury reports, home-field advantage, weather, and other factors that may be relevant. I’m currently baking in a one and a half to two-point advantage for home teams right now. I hope you find these ratings useful and good luck with your wagers!
|Rank||Team||Power Rating||Record (ATS)||Ratings Change||Super Bowl LV Odds|
|1.||Kansas City Chiefs||9.5||8-1 (6-3)||—||+350|
|2.||Pittsburgh Steelers||6.5||8-0 (6-2)||—||+550|
|3.||Baltimore Ravens||6.5||6-2 (4-4)||-.5||+900|
|4.||Seattle Seahawks||5.5||6-2 (5-3)||-.5||+1100|
|5.||New Orleans Saints||5||6-2 (3-5)||+1||+700|
|6.||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||5||6-3 (4-5)||-1||+900|
|7.||Green Bay Packers||5||6-2 (6-2)||+.5||+1000|
|8.||Los Angeles Rams||4||5-3 (4-4)||—||+2500|
|9.||Tennessee Titans||3.5||6-2 (3-5)||—||+2500|
|10.||Indianapolis Colts||3||5-3 (4-4)||-.5||+3000|
|11.||Buffalo Bills||2.5||7-2 (4-5)||+.5||+1800|
|12.||Arizona Cardinals||2.5||5-3 (5-3)||—||+3300|
|13.||Las Vegas Raiders||2||5-3 (5-3)||+.5||+6000|
|14.||Miami Dolphins||1||5-3 (6-2)||+1.5||+6000|
|15.||Cleveland Browns||1||5-3 (3-5)||—||+6000|
|16.||Minnesota Vikings||1||3-5 (5-3)||+1||+10000|
|17.||Philadelphia Eagles||.5||3-4-1 (3-5)||—||+4000|
|18.||Atlanta Falcons||.5||3-6 (4-5)||+.5||+17500|
|19.||Los Angeles Chargers||.5||2-6 (5-3)||-.5||+22500|
|20.||San Francisco 49ers||0||4-5 (4-5)||-1||+6000|
|21.||Carolina Panthers||0||3-6 (5-4)||+.5||+22500|
|22.||Chicago Bears||-.5||5-4 (5-4)||-.5||+7500|
|23.||Houston Texans||-.5||2-6 (1-7)||—||+25000|
|24.||New England Patriots||-1||3-5 (3-5)||-1||+10000|
|25.||Cincinnati Bengals||-1.5||2-5-1 (6-2)||—||+50000|
|26.||Detroit Lions||-1.5||3-5 (3-5)||-.5||+15000|
|27.||Denver Broncos||-2.5||3-5 (5-3)||—||+25000|
|28.||New York Giants||-2.5||2-7 (6-3)||+.5||+35000|
|30.||Dallas Cowboys||-5.5||2-7 (1-8)||+.5||+17500|
|31.||Jacksonville Jaguars||-6||1-7 (3-5)||+.5||+100000|
|32.||New York Jets||-8.5||0-9 (2-7)||+1||+250000|
Week 10 Risers
Teams who improved from the last Power Ratings update on Nov. 4.
Green Bay Packers (5 to 5.5) — Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams are the scariest QB-WR duo in the league, and they put it on display in their blowout victory over the 49ers on Thursday Night Football. The pair connected on 10-of-12 passes for 173 yards and a touchdown.
New Orleans Saints (4 to 5) — The Saints got Michael Thomas back in Week 9 and their defense also showed up in a pivotal victory over the Buccaneers to build a lead in the NFC South. Drew Brees threw for four touchdowns and the Saints defense held Tom Brady and company to three points and 4.2 yards per play.
Buffalo Bills (2 to 2.5) — The Bills had been mired in a funk in Weeks 5-8, averaging just 18.0 points per game after scoring 27+ points in every game of their 4-0 start. Josh Allen and the offense got healthy against the Seahawks last week with the third-year QB throwing for 415 yards and the Bills scoring 44 points.
Las Vegas Raiders (1.5 to 2) — The Raiders ran their road record to 4-1 by holding off a last-second attempt at a victory from the Chargers in Week 9. Las Vegas averaged 6.2 YPC and 6.4 yards per play even with a makeshift offensive line in front of Derek Carr.
Miami Dolphins (-.5 to 1) — The Dolphins extended their outright and ATS win streaks to four consecutive victories with their 34-31 decision over the Cardinals as six-point road underdogs. Tua Tagovailoa threw for 248 yards without a turnover while the Dolphins scored a defensive touchdown for the second straight game.
Minnesota Vikings (0 to 1) — Dalvin Cook is now leading the league with 858 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns in just seven games. He totaled 478 scrimmage yards and six touchdowns against their NFC North rivals the Packers and the Lions. The Vikings will look to complete the NFC North sweep over the last three weeks against the Bears to climb right back into the division title race.
Atlanta Falcons (0 to .5) — It’s been a season of “what ifs” for the Falcons because of four one-score losses in their first six games. Atlanta still hasn’t given up on their season as they’ve now strung together three victories in their first four games under Raheem Morris as they head into their bye.
Carolina Panthers (-.5 to 0) — The Panthers nearly knocked off the Chiefs in Kansas City as 10-point underdogs. Joey Slye’s desperation field goal with no time remaining from 67 yards away missed badly to the right in a 33-31 loss. The Panthers have been pests for the best teams in the league as the Saints survived a desperation Slye attempt at the buzzer earlier this season.
New York Giants (-3 to -2.5) — Daniel Jones has been a disappointment in his second season but this Giants team has played above spread expectations. New York has covered three straight spreads and five of its last six since getting embarrassed by the 49ers in Week 3.
Dallas Cowboys (-6 to -5.5) — The Cowboys finally showed some fight on both sides of the ball since Dak Prescott suffered his season-ending injury in Week 5. Backup QB Garrett Gilbert sparked the offense to 19 points, which was a major step forward after scoring just 22 points combined in their first three games without Prescott.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5 to -6) — Sixth-round pick Jake Luton made a splash in his first NFL start, connecting with D.J. Chark for a 73-yard TD on the second career pass attempt. He also engineered a potential game-tying drive in the final two minutes, but their two-point conversion failed with 90 seconds left.
New York Jets (-9.5 to -8.5) — Stop the presses! The Jets moved up in my power ratings for the first time this season. We got our first real glimpses of what this passing attack could look like with Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims on the field at the same time and stretching the field vertically for this offense.
Week 10 Fallers
Teams who worsened from the last Power Ratings update on Nov. 4.
Baltimore Ravens (7 to 6.5) — The Ravens were headed to their second straight loss of the season before Jonathan Taylor gifted them a defensive touchdown on a fumble at the end of the first quarter. The Ravens offense remains broken for now as they averaged just 4.2 yards per play in their 14-point victory over the Colts.
Seattle Seahawks (6 to 5.5) — The Seahawks have dropped two consecutive games on the road as they head for Los Angeles this weekend. Seattle’s defense is certainly a get-well unit as we saw with the Bills and Josh Allen in Week 9. The Seahawks are allowing a league-high 455.8 yards per game and the third-most points per game at 30.4.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6 to 5) — It might be just coincidence, but the Saints wiped the floor with the Buccaneers in a 35-point road victory during the same week that the circus came to town when Antonio Brown joined the team. Tampa Bay attempted just five carries in their loss, which set a new NFL-low for fewest rushing attempts in a game.
Indianapolis Colts (3.5 to 3) — The Colts’ lack of playmakers on offense was never more evident than in Week 9 when they struggled to consistently move the ball against a strong Ravens defense. Philip Rivers can no longer elevate sub-par offensive talent like he once could earlier in his career, and he desperately needs someone to elevate their game in the second half of the season.
Los Angeles Chargers (1 to .5) — The Chargers dropped to 3-15 in one-score games since the start of last season following yet another excruciating loss, this time to the Raiders in Week 9. What an incredible run of futility in close games even with a new, exciting young quarterback.
San Francisco 49ers (1 to 0) — The 49ers have been ravaged by injuries this season, which was exacerbated last week when three additional offensive starters were added to the COVID-19 list. The 49ers defense allowed 6.4 yards per play and Nick Mullens was forced to throw to someone named River Cracraft.
Chicago Bears (0 to -.5) — No one took the Bears seriously as NFC contenders when they sat at 5-1 just three short weeks ago, and they’ve now lost three straight games to validate those beliefs. Nick Foles would’ve likely been pulled against the Titans if Mitchell Trubisky hadn’t hurt his shoulder on a gadget play the week before, which is a good summary of the Bears season to this date.
New England Patriots (0 to -1) — It’s never a good look when you need a frantic fourth-quarter comeback to beat a winless team in November but at least the Patriots did get the last-second win. The Patriots defense might have more issues than their offense right now after allowing 27 points and 7.3 yards per play to the Jets.
Detroit Lions (-1 to -1.5) — The Lions continue to be one of the worst managed teams in the league with Matt Patricia quickly headed out of town. The Lions climbed back to .500 after Week 7, but they’ve dropped their last two games by 34 combined points to fall back into the cellar in the NFC North.