Week 10 MNF Trends & Picks


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Week 10 MNF Trends & Picks

Examining trends for each team can help you make better-informed gambling and fantasy decisions. It’s never wise to bet a game based on a single trend and it’s also never wise to back off a wager based on a single trend, either. With that said, trends can point you in the right direction by corroborating stats and information you’ve gathered or they can make you reconsider making a bad wager based on flimsy data. I’ve gone game-by-game and compiled the most relevant trends for each team heading into this week’s contests. I’ve included any bets or leans I have for each game at the end of each writeup. Good luck with your wagers!

Monday Night Football

Minnesota Vikings (3-5, 5-3 ATS) at Chicago Bears (5-4, 5-4), 8:15 p.m.

  • Implied Team Totals: Vikings 23.25, Bears 20.25

  • Spread/Total Movements: 2.5 to 3.5 to 3, 45 to 43.5

  • Weather: 43 degrees, clear, 15 mph

  • Vikings Injuries to Watch: TE Irv Smith (groin, out), CB Cameron Dantzler (concussion, out)

  • Bears Injuries to Watch: RB David Montgomery (concussion, out), WR Allen Robinson (knee), NT John Jenkins (ankle, out), TE Cole Kmet (groin),

Vikings Trends

  • The Vikings will look to complete the NFC North sweep over the last three weeks after beating the Packers and the Lions in the last two weeks.

  • The Vikings are 6-2 toward overs this season.

  • Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last six games.

  • Dalvin Cook is now leading the league with 858 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns in just seven games. He totaled 478 scrimmage yards and six touchdowns against their NFC North rivals the Packers and the Lions over the last two weeks. The Bears limited Derrick Henry to 21/68 receiving last week and Alvin Kamara is the only back to top 15 FP against the Bears thanks to 9/96 receiving.

  • Kirk Cousins is averaging 18.7 attempts per game in wins and 30.6 attempts in losses. The Vikings enter as 2.5-point road favorites. Cousins has thrown for multiple passing TDs in three of his last four games but he’s topped out at 220 passing yards in his last two games. The Bears have allowed multiple passing TDs to QBs in three straight games after not allowing multiple TD passes in their first six games.

  • Adam Thielen has managed just 5/65 receiving on nine targets over the last two games with Cousins attempting just 34 passes. He’s also failed to find the end zone in that span after scoring seven TDs in his first six games. The Bears have given up a league-low three TDs to WRs this season.

  • Justin Jefferson has also been hurt by the lack of passing volume over the last two weeks with 6/90 receiving on eight targets. A.J. Brown posted 4/101/1 receiving in this matchup, which included a 40-yard TD on a slot fade. The Bears are allowing the second-fewest WR catches per game (10.9) and the third-fewest receiving yards per game to WRs (143.4).

  • Irv Smith ran just nine routes on 21 dropbacks (42.9%) last week but he turned his four targets into 2/10/2 receiving. Smith won’t be able to play through a groin injury this week, leaving Kyle Rudolph to man the position. He posted 3/40 receiving on four targets last week and he has just one touchdown this season. The Bears have given up six TDs to TEs this season, including a score to Jonnu Smith last week. Chicago is giving up the ninth-most FPG to the position (14.6).

Bears Trends

  • The Bears will not have fans in attendance this week.

  • The Bears are 6-3 toward unders this season, including 5-1 toward unders in their last six games.

  • Chicago is 5-1 ATS in its last six games in this series.

  • OC Bill Lazor will take over play-calling duties from HC Matt Nagy this week.

  • Nick Foles would’ve likely been pulled against the Titans if Mitchell Trubisky hadn’t hurt his shoulder on a gadget play the week before, which is a good summary of the Bears season to this date. Foles reached 20+ FP for the first time last week with 335/2 passing against the Titans, but he needed 52 attempts to do it (6.4 YPA). The Vikings have allowed multiple passing TDs in five straight games with 290+ yards in four of those contests.

  • Allen Robinson has topped 10+ FP in eight of his nine games. He has 70+ receiving yards in six of his seven games with Foles and he also has 5+ catches in six of his seven games with Foles. The Vikings are giving up the third-most FPG to WRs (45.5), including 3/43/1 receiving to Marvin Jones, the Lions’ top option last week.

  • Darnell Mooney saw a team-best 11 targets last week, which translated into just 5/43 receiving against the Titans. Mooney has seen 5+ in each of the last six weeks, and he has 3+ catches and 35+ yards in four straight games. The Vikings are allowing a generous 13.7 YPR to WRs this season.

  • Anthony Miller has also been trending upward with 13/132 receiving on 19 targets over the last two weeks. Danny Amendola posted 7/77 receiving out of the slot last week for an undermanned Lions offense.

  • Jimmy Graham is a TD-or-bust option most weeks since he’s topped 35+ receiving yards in just two of his nine games. He scored his fifth TD of the season last week as he caught all six of his targets for 55 yards, and he’s averaging 6.7 targets per game since Nick Foles entered the lineup mid-game in Week 3. The Vikings have allowed touchdowns to TEs in two out of their last three games, and they’ve allowed 12+ FP to TEs in three straight games.

  • David Montgomery won’t be ready to play this week after suffering a concussion in Week 9. The Bears will roll with a combination of Ryan Nall, Artavis Pierce, Lamar Miller, and Cordarrelle Patterson with Montgomery out of the lineup. The Vikings are allowing 148.6 scrimmage yards per game to RBs, including 205 scrimmage yards to a trio of Lions RBs last week.

Brolley’s Bets

Chicago Bears +3 (Staff Picks Lean)

Nick Foles over 23.5 completions (Best Bet)

Tom is a Senior Writer at Fantasy Points who specializes in fantasy and betting analysis. He’ll be helping you to navigate the waiver wire and manage your fantasy teams while also keeping our betting content robust all year long, especially during the season. Tom's Best Bets against the spread won at 61.5% clip in 2019 and he was a perfect 8-0 on his Best Bets for season win totals in 2020.