Conference Championship Staff Picks


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Conference Championship Staff Picks

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Welcome to the Fantasy Points staff picks! Every Thursday, our crew will pick every game straight up in this space, and our betting writer Tom Brolley will pick every game against the spread. We'll also give tiered picks for Survivor Pools and we’ll rank our picks for Confidence Pools based on our consensus selections. Be sure to head over to our Odds Board page for the latest Spreads, Moneylines, and Over/Unders found on DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, PointsBet, and Sugar House.

Staff Picks

John HansenJoe DolanTom BrolleyGraham BarfieldScott BarrettConsensus
Last Week4-04-03-14-03-14-0

Score Predictions


Tampa Bay 27, Green Bay 24

Kansas City 28, Buffalo 23


Green Bay 31, Tampa Bay 28 — An instant classic. The NFL MVP Rodgers holds off Brady in a playoff matchup we shockingly haven’t gotten before in the Super Bowl.

Buffalo 27, Kansas City 24 — Buffalo was my AFC Super Bowl pick in our initial staff picks and I’m not going against it now. The Bill defense had its game of the season last week against Baltimore. It’s not going to hold the Chiefs to 3 points, but Mahomes’ foot injury gives the Bills just enough of an edge to get them to the Super Bowl.


Green Bay 28, Tampa Bay 24 — Rodgers continues his MVP run by knocking off the G.O.A.T. in his first NFC Championship Game. Rodgers also avenges the one major blemish on his 2020 resume when the Bucs beat the Packers 38-10 in Tampa back in October. I’m leaning over the total in this one with two offenses that have posted 30+ points a combined 23 times this season.

Kansas City 26, Buffalo 24 — The Chiefs squeeze out another outright victory but they fail to cover for the ninth time in their last 10 games. Patrick Mahomes plays at less than full health on a bad foot and Travis Kelce is the one who carries them to back-to-back Super Bowl appearances. I’m leaning toward the under in this contest with two offenses that aren’t quite firing at 100% right now.


Green Bay 31, Tampa Bay 24 — Tom Brady is arguably playing better than he ever has, but this spot is totally different than their meeting back in Week 6. Since that embarrassing loss, the Packers have scored 30 points in nine of their last 12 games including seven times in their last eight. I’m a little surprised that the Packers are only 3.5 point favorites here.

Kansas City 28, Buffalo 27 — Like Tom, I’m on the Bills +3 here in a potentially high-scoring affair if Mahomes is close to 100% health. There are two teams in the NFL that can keep up with the Chiefs scoring and the Bills are perfectly suited to do so.


Green Bay 27, Tampa Bay 17 - Aaron Rodgers / Green Bay had only one “bad game” all year. And it just so happened to come against the Buccaneers in Week 6. I’m willing to write that off as somewhat fluky -- near back-to-back picks (one off of a drop) gave the Buccaneers 14 points in 5 plays. Tampa Bay’s defense hasn’t looked nearly as dominant in recent weeks, while Rodgers has been the runaway MVP favorite in all other games. Packers DC Mike Pettine has historically owned Tom Brady’s soul. Green Bay is most vulnerable against the run, but that could be tricky with Ronald Jones still banged up.

Chiefs 31, Buffalo 26 - This game should fall right into Kansas City’s wheelhouse -- a high-scoring pass-heavy affair. The only reason I think this should be close is Patrick Mahomes might not be close to 100% health. Otherwise, I think, the Chiefs easily have the best team, best offensive playcaller, best QB, and best offense in football.

Tom Brolley’s ATS Picks

Check out this week’s Best Bets here.

Overall ATS Record: 142-118-5 (54.6%); DR: 1-3 (25%)

Best Bets ATS Record: 49-46-3 (51.6%); DR: 1-2 (33.3%)

**Best Bets**

GamesATS Pick
TB @ GBGB -3
BUF @ KC**Buf +3**

TB-GB: Juiced up -3s have started to show in the middle of the week. I’m waiting this line out to see if I can get a better price at -3 or a shorter line later this week. The Rams took money last week against the Packers until Cooper Kupp was ruled out on gameday, while the Buccaneers saw steady money against the Saints to close as 2.5-point road underdogs. I’m expecting Tom Brady to get plenty of support as an underdog once again so a better price or a shorter line should be coming at some point.

Buf-KC: I placed a smaller bet on the Bills at +3 on Monday just in case Patrick Mahomes was unable to play this week. If Mahomes does play (which is looking very likely), the Chiefs will likely go off as favorites in the 3.5 to 4.5 point range. I plan on betting more on the Bills later this week if this line moves higher if it looks like Mahomes will play. Mahomes’ concussion is going to get all the headlines this week (and rightfully so) but don’t forget that his play in the Divisional Round was a bit compromised after he picked up a foot injury in the second quarter.