Best Bets: Conference Championship

January 24, 2021 12:30pm EST

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Best Bets: Conference Championship

FPTS Staff
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January 24, 2021 12:30pm EST

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Welcome to Fantasy Points Best Bets. This will be the main hub for our staff’s favorite NFL bets throughout the season. Our staff will give their favorite spread, total, and player prop bets every week during the season through the Super Bowl. Be sure to check back regularly before kickoff to see what wagers our crew has lined up for the week ahead.

Tom Brolley

Game Picks

Best Bets ATS Record: 49-46-3 (-2.2 units); DR: 1-2 (-1.09 units)

Overall ATS Record: 142-118-5 (54.6%); DR: 1-3 (25%)

Totals Record: 5-7 (-2.2 units)

Gameday Bets

Buffalo Bills +3.5 (-115, BetMGM) — I’m adding another .5 unit bet on the Bills, this time at +3.5 to win .43 units.

Green Bay Packers -3 (-115, WilliamHill) — The Buccaneers money continues to drive this line down. I’m putting one unit on the Packers -3 to win .87 units.

Buffalo Bills (+3, FanDuel) at Kansas City Chiefs

I want to get a small taste of the Bills at +3 early in the week just in case Patrick Mahomes is unable to play in the AFC Championship Game. I think the Bills would close as at least four-point favorites and as high as seven-point favorites if Chad Henne is forced to play. If Mahomes does play (which I think he will), the Chiefs will likely go off as favorites in the 3.5 to 4.5 point range. I plan on betting more on the Bills later this week if this line moves higher if it looks like Mahomes will play. Mahomes’ concussion is going to get all the headlines this week (and rightfully so) but don’t forget that his play in the Divisional Round was compromised after he picked up a foot injury in the second quarter. I just see too much potential value on the Bills right now given there’s at least a small chance that Mahomes won’t play this week. I would only grab +3s or better early in the week while we wait out Mahomes’ status. Risk .5 units at -110 to win .45 units (Jan. 18).

Player Props

Record: 164-130 (+24.33 units); DR: 5-9 (-3.29 units)

All one-unit wagers unless otherwise noted.

Aaron Rodgers (GB) over 2.5 touchdown passes (+150, PointsBet)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (GB) longest reception over 16.5 yards (-112, FanDuel)
Aaron Jones (GB) under 14.5 rushing attempts (+100, DraftKings)
Rob Gronkowski (TB) under 2.5 receptions (+111, DraftKings)
Ronald Jones (TB) over 35.5 rushing yards (-110, FanDuel)
Patrick Mahomes (KC) under 15.5 rushing yards (-112, FanDuel)
John Brown (Buf) under 4.5 receptions (-130, WilliamHill)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire (KC) under 40.5 rushing yards (-110, FanDuel)

Ben Kukainis

Same-Game Parlays (FanDuel)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Green Bay Packers

Aaron Rodgers OVER 283.5 Passing Yards
Aaron Jones OVER 59.5 Rushing Yards
Davante Adams OVER 89.5 Receiving Yards
Mike Evans OVER 62.5 Receiving Yards
Second Quarter Total Points OVER 15.5

Wager $15.00 (+1502) to win $225.33

Notes: Tom Brady’s Passing Yards at 285.5 is a bit high in my opinion. He didn’t even crack 200 passing yards last game, and he tallied just 166 passing yards vs. Green Bay in Week 6. That said, Brady has surpassed 300 passing yards in 5 out of his previous 6 games. Ultimately, it’s just too much of a toss-up to throw in a same-game parlay.

Elsewhere on the Bucs, Brady’s long-time bud Rob Gronkowski, has an O/U set at 27.5 receiving yards. Gronk is averaging just 3.5 targets/game over his last 6, so while it’s possible (and maybe even likely) he hits the Over on a single reception, I want some more sure-thing bets for single-game parlays. Don’t underestimate Brady’s growth with Scottie Miller. Gronk still seems to be option number 5 in the passing game, behind Godwin, Evans, Miller, and Fournette.

For the Packers, I got lucky last week with the MVS Over. Yet St. Brown hit his Over on a single play last week, and Lazard’s O/U at 46.5 receiving seems a bit risky, seeing as how he’s hit that mark just 5 times all season. Ultimately, it feels like a crapshoot with these receivers, and the only near-guarantee is Adams. I just want to stay completely away from all wideouts not named Davante on the Packers for single-game parlays.