This article is an early betting preview for this week’s Conference Championship games. I’ll include my personal power ratings, Super Bowl odds, and mini-game previews with recent trends. I’ll also include my bets and leans for the week at the end of the article.
My power ratings are designed to be a starting point for point-spread betting between two teams. They take into account recent performances, long-term injuries, coaching, and strength of schedule. These ratings are intended to help predict performances in the present, but they’re not necessarily predictive for the rest of the season.
I will take my Power Ratings into account when I make my weekly against the spread picks for the week, but I’ll also consider current injury reports, home-field advantage, weather, and other factors that may be relevant. I’m currently baking in a one and a half to two-point advantage for home teams. I hope you find these ratings useful and good luck with your wagers!
| Rank | Team | Power Rating | Record (ATS) | Ratings Change | Pre-Conference Championship Super Bowl Odds | Pre-Divisional Round Super Bowl Odds | Pre-Wild Card Super Bowl Odds |
| 1. | Kansas City Chiefs | 9.5 | 15-2 (7-10) | — | +200 | +200 | +225 |
| 2. | Green Bay Packers | 8.5 | 14-3 (11-6) | +1 | +220 | +375 | +450 |
| 3. | Buffalo Bills | 7.5 | 15-3 (12-6) | — | +325 | +600 | +700 |
| 4. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7 | 13-5 (10-8) | +.5 | +450 | +900 | +1000 |
NFC Championship Game
(5) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+450 SB odds) at (1) Green Bay Packers (+220)
Spread: Packers -3.5
Total: 51.5
Time: 3:05 p.m., Sunday
The NFC Championship Game will feature the NFL’s most successful quarterback in Tom Brady and arguably the NFL’s most talented quarterback of all-time in Aaron Rodgers. Brady will be playing in his 14th Conference Championship Game. For perspective, the Steelers and the 49ers have the most Conference Championship Game appearances since the merger with 16. The Buccaneers advanced to the title game with a 30-20 victory over the Saints as 2.5 road underdogs. Tampa Bay has now covered in five of their last seven games.
Rodgers will be making his fifth start in the NFC Championship Game in his 13 years as Green Bay’s starting quarterback. The Packers have won seven straight games heading into the NFC title game. They’ve covered the spread in five of those games with five wins by 14+ points in that span after they beat the Rams 32-18 in the Divisional Round as seven-point home favorites. Green Bay has now played over the total in six straight playoff games after playing over a 45-point total last week.
The Buccaneers handed the Packers their worst loss of the season in Week 6 with Tampa Bay beating Green Bay 38-10 as three-point home underdogs. Ronald Jones ran for 113 yards and two touchdowns while Aaron Rodgers threw for 160 scoreless yards and two INTs with the Packers’ offense averaging just 3.3 yards per play. That game was played in 88-degree weather in Tampa on Oct. 18, but this week’s early forecast is calling for potential snow showers with a high predicted around 27 degrees in Green Bay.
Antonio Brown stayed on the sideline for most of the second half last week after he picked up a knee injury in the first half. AB wasn’t on Tampa’s roster for the first meeting between these teams. Jones also appeared to be favoring his injured quad last week with Leonard Fournette finishing with more touches (22 to 13). Like Fournette, Cameron Brate has emerged as a key piece for this offense in the playoffs with 8/130 receiving on 11 targets in two games. Devin White returned from the COVID-19 list last week after a two-game layoff, and he came through with an interception and a fumble recovery against the Saints.
The Packers come into this week relatively healthy after they lost LT David Bakhtiari (ACL, IR) at the end of the regular season. A.J. Dillon picked up a quad injury in the fourth quarter last week after having a bigger role than anticipated with six carries for 27 yards against the Rams.
AFC Championship Game
(2) Buffalo Bills (+325) at (1) Kansas City Chiefs (+200)
- Spread: Chiefs -3
- Total: 54
- Time: 6:40 p.m., Sunday
Patrick Mahomes’ health will be the biggest story of Conference Championship Week after he left Kansas City’s Divisional Round victory with a concussion — he also picked up an injury to his left foot early in the game. Mahomes, 25, has emerged as the brightest young quarterback in the league after his Super Bowl victory last season, but 24-year-old Josh Allen is looking to start what could become a longtime AFC rivalry with the Chiefs.
The Chiefs are the only team remaining in the playoffs with a losing ATS record (7-10) after they failed to cover again. Kansas City held a 16-point advantage over Cleveland at halftime, but they held on for dear life at the end with Chad Henne at quarterback, winning 22-17 as 7.5-point home favorites. Kansas City has failed to cover in eight of its last nine games with its only ATS victory coming by half a point in a 32-29 victory over the Saints in Week 15. It’s been more than two months since the Chiefs looked truly dominant as they haven’t won a game by more than one score since they wiped out the Jets 35-9 in Week 8 on the first day of November.
The Bills have an NFL-best 12 ATS victories after beating the Ravens 17-3 in the Divisional Round as 2.5-point home favorites. Slot CB Taron Johnson had the play of the game with a 101-yard interception return touchdown, which was just the third time an interception was returned 100+ yards for a touchdown in the playoffs. Pittsburgh’s James Harrison did it against the Cardinals in Super Bowl XLIII and Green Bay’s George Teague accomplished the feat against the Lions in the 1993 Wild Card Round. The Bills have covered in nine of their last 10 games and they’ve won outright in nine of their last 10 games. Buffalo’s only loss in the last three months came on the “Hail Murray” pass against Arizona in Week 10.
The Chiefs did hand the Bills one of their three losses this season. Kansas City beat the Bills 26-17 in Week 6 as 5.5-point road favorites in a game totaled at 55 points. Kansas City held Allen to a season-low 122 passing yards while Clyde Edwards-Helaire ran for a season-high 161 yards in the victory. That game was played in rainy conditions around 51 degrees in Buffalo on Oct. 18, and this week’s early forecast is also calling for potential rain showers once again with a high around 43 degrees in Kansas City.
Outside of Mahomes’ injury, Edwards-Helaire’s status will be one to watch. Adam Schefter reported Sunday that the rookie RB was close to playing against the Browns and that he should be ready to play this week. The Chiefs lost CB Bashaud Breeland to a concussion in the Divisional Round so he’ll be in a race to play this week like Mahomes. On the Bills’ side, Cole Beasley has been playing at less than full health with his knee injury while T.J. Yeldon is the team’s #2 RB after they lost Zack Moss (ankle) for the rest of the postseason.
Brolley’s Early Bets
Buffalo Bills +3 — I want to get a small taste (half a unit) of the Bills at +3 early in the week just in case Patrick Mahomes is unable to play in the AFC Championship Game. I think the Bills would close as at least four-point favorites and as high as seven-point favorites if Chad Henne is forced to play. If Mahomes does play (which I think he will), the Chiefs will likely go off as favorites in the 3.5 to 4.5 point range. I plan on betting more on the Bills later this week if this line moves higher if it looks like Mahomes will play. Mahomes’ concussion is going to get all the headlines this week (and rightfully so) but don’t forget that his play in the Divisional Round was compromised after he picked up a foot injury in the second quarter. I just see too much potential value on the Bills right now given there’s at least a small chance that Mahomes won’t play this week. I would only grab +3s or better early in the week while we wait out Mahomes’ status.
Brolley’s Early Leans
Green Bay Packers -3.5 — I came away from this weekend the most impressed by the Packers in the Divisional Round. They became just the second team to score 30+ points against the Rams this season — the Bills scored 35 on the Rams in Week 3. I’ll be waiting this line out to see if any -3s start to show later in the week with Tampa Bay seeing strong support in the first 24 hours. The Rams took money last week against the Packers until Cooper Kupp was ruled out on gameday while the Buccaneers saw steady money against the Saints to close as 2.5-point road underdogs. I’m expecting Tom Brady to get plenty of support as an underdog once again after he treated his backers well and most of the +4s have already disappeared as of Monday afternoon.
