Welcome to Fantasy Points Best Bets. This will be the main hub for our staff’s favorite NFL bets throughout the season. Our staff will give their favorite spread, total, and player prop bets every week during the season through the Super Bowl. Be sure to check back regularly before kickoff to see what wagers our crew has lined up for the week ahead.
ATS Record: 6-2 (+3.5 units); Totals Record: 1-1 (-.09 units)
Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5, DraftKings) vs. Los Angeles Chargers
I stepped in front of the Chiefs last week when I picked the Texans in our Staff Picks article and it didn’t work out well for me. I’m not making that same mistake this week. I’ve been low on the Chargers all summer long, and I didn’t see anything from their passing attack last week that makes me think Tyrod Taylor and company can hang with Patrick Mahomes this week. The Chiefs have been moneymakers in their last 12 games (10-1-1 ATS), in their last 12 September games (11-1 ATS), and in their last seven games in LA/SD (7-0 ATS). Risk one unit to win .91 units (Posted Sept. 17).
Las Vegas Raiders (+6, Caesars) vs. New Orleans Saints
The Saints averaged the third-fewest yards per play (4.0) last week, and they’ll now be playing without the NFL’s best receiver in Michael Thomas this week. Tampa Bay’s defense may have played a part in their offensive struggles, but I didn’t come away incredibly impressed by Drew Brees. I also think the Saints could be in a let-down spot here off of a huge divisional game against the new kid on the block in Tom Brady, who handed the Saints defense a pick-six in that game. The Raiders will be up for this game since it’s their first game in their new hometown, and they showed some resilience to erase three defeat road deficits last week. I also liked that they stuck with their best RB nearly full time by riding Josh Jacobs so I’m expecting the Raiders to be able to keep pace with an undermanned Saints offense. If you want a little extra action, parlaying the Raiders +6 with the under at 49.5 since I think the Saints could struggle for their standards. Risk one unit to win .91 units (Posted Sept. 17).
Philadelphia Eagles (+1.5, BetMGM) vs. Los Angeles Rams
I believe the markets have overreacted to both Philadelphia’s disappointing Week 1 loss to Washington and to Los Angeles’ season-opening victory over Dallas. I adjusted the Eagles down slightly in my Power Ratings, but I still have them as the favorite over the Rams this week. The Rams are also in a brutal travel spot traveling from the West Coast to play an early kick game on the East Coast after a Sunday Night game the week before. The Eagles opened at -2.5, which I think was the right price, and I’m now seeing about four points of value in this wager. I’d grab a piece of the Eagles now because I could see Philadelphia potentially going off as small favorites later in the week with the likes of Lane Johnson and Miles Sanders expected back this week. Risk 1.25 to win 1.14 units (Posted Sept. 16)
Atlanta Falcons (+7, DraftKings) at Dallas Cowboys
From this week’s Opening Line Reports: I’ve already laid my money on the Falcons at +7 on Monday morning because I don’t see this line holding at the key number of seven. Dallas suffered some massive injuries in Week 1 by losing both Vander Esch and Jarwin, and it doesn’t sound like starting RT Erving will be available against the Falcons, as well. I’ll be downgrading the Cowboys in my Power Ratings, and I think this line should be more in the five-point range. I’ll still like the Falcons when this line dips later this week, but I want to get some extra insurance by getting the full seven points right now. Risk 1.5 units to win 1.36 units. (Posted Sept. 14)
Record: 16-12 (+2.75 units). All one-unit wagers unless otherwise noted.
Nick Chubb (Cle) over 68.5 rushing yards (-110, FanDuel) (W)
C.J. Uzomah (Cin) over 21.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings) (W)
Calvin Ridley (Atl) over 65.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings) (W)
Diontae Johnson (Pit) over 56.5 receiving yards (-106, BetMGM) (W)
DeSean Jackson (Phi) over 40.5 receiving yards (-112, BetMGM) (W)
Logan Thomas (Was) over 29.5 receiving yards (-112, BetMGM) (L)
Gardner Minshew (Jax) over 20.5 completions (-112, BetMGM) (W)
Adam Thielen (Min) over 4.5 receptions (-129, BetMGM) (L)
Zach Ertz (Phi) over 4.5 receptions (+130, BetMGM) (W)
Tom Brady (TB) under 277.5 passing yards (-117, DraftKings) (W)
Marquise Brown (Bal) over 51.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel) (L)
Jonnu Smith (Ten) over 37.5 receiving yards (-110, FanDuel) (W)
James Conner (Pit) under 49.5 rushing yards (-112, DraftKings) (L)
Damiere Byrd (NE) under 34.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings) (L)
Alvin Kamara (NO) over 90.5 rushing + receiving yards (-106, FanDuel)