WEEK 3 SUNDAY POST-MORTEM
It was a rough Sunday for many teams. I expected Los Angeles to challenge Philadelphia, but I did not think they would be so dominant in the first half. Saquon Barkley rushed 7 times by halftime, for a total of 13 yards. His was the only leg that missed in that game’s Basic Ticket.
In the Dallas @ Chicago game, CeeDee Lamb was hurt on his offense’s sixth play from scrimmage. He played a total of 7 snaps. D.J. Moore disappointed as well.
Thankfully, we won a couple of the Supplemental Straight tickets to reduce the sting of the losses. As a result, Sunday saw a loss of -2.2 units.
Monday Night Football sees my Detroit Lions playing at the Baltimore Ravens, with the highest total of Week 3.
DETROIT LIONS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS - BAL -5.5 - O/U 53.5 [FD]
BASIC TICKET (0.5 UNITS)
(FanDuel had the best odds.)
Amon-Ra St. Brown projects for 78.1 receiving yards on 8.8 targets. Per Tom Brolley’s Week 3 Game Hub, Baltimore has allowed the seventh-most receiving YPG and the fifth-most receptions to slot WRs. Through two weeks, St. Brown leads Detroit with a 54.5% slot route share. St. Brown has finished with 60+ yards in 6 of his last 7 games.
Jameson Williams projects for 51.2 receiving yards on 5.0 targets. Per Brolley, Baltimore has allowed the 10th-most YPG and the fourth-most receptions to WRs aligned out wide. Williams leads Detroit with a 72.5% wide route share through two weeks. He’s finished with 30+ yards in 6 of his last 7 regular-season games.
Jahmyr Gibbs projects for 94.3 total yards on 17 opportunities. Per Brolley, Baltimore has allowed the third-most adjusted YBC/ATT and the sixth-most receiving YPG to RBs. Gibbs has been handed more of the opportunities this season, and it’s hard to find an outcome, barring a total smothering by the Baltimore defense, where his role can’t lead to this production. His 40 total yards in the Week 1 road loss to Green Bay were the first time since the 2023 NFC Championship loss that he finished with fewer than 70 total yards.
Zay Flowers projects for 80.8 receiving yards on 7.7 targets. Per Brolley, Detroit has used single-high safety coverage at the second-highest rate in the league, against which Flowers has averaged 4.59 YPRR and .44 TPRR. Brolley further notes that Flowers ranks second in YPRR, third in TPRR, and seventh in win rate among all WRs.
AGGRESSIVE TICKET (.25 UNITS)
(DraftKings again with way better odds using lower lines.)
Jared Goff projects for 265 passing yards on 34 attempts. He finished third in YPG last season. In large part due to being in negative game scripts, opposing offenses averaged the most YPG (306.0) against Baltimore last year. If Detroit plays from behind, which I do think is likely, volume should be there for Goff tonight.
Sam LaPorta projects for 4.7 receptions on 6.2 targets. Per Brolley, Baltimore has allowed the second-most YPG and receptions to TEs. LaPorta has finished with at least 4 receptions in 7 of his last 8 games.
Lamar Jackson projects for 279.3 total yards. Per Brolley, Detroit is pressuring QBs at the seventh-lowest rate. With their second-best edge player predictably injured, it will be a tough task to stop Jackson. My hunch is that Detroit prioritizes stopping Derrick Henry, and uses a spy on Jackson. Unfortunately, Jackson ranks first in accurate throw rate and third in hero throw rate (per Brolley), so Detroit is in for a tough matchup regardless if it’s his arm or his legs doing the bulk of the lifting. Last week’s blowout win over Cleveland was the first time in six games that Jackson failed to total 250 yards.
SCRATCH-OFF TICKET (.10 UNITS)
SUPPLEMENTAL STRAIGHT TICKETS
(All wagers with negative odds are to win 0.5 units, and all wagers with positive odds risk 0.5 units.)
Best odds on DraftKings. Risk 0.595 units to win 0.5.
Best odds on FanDuel. Risk 0.56 units to win 0.5.
Good luck!
