It’s annoying drafting a fantasy defense every year. You look at a list of names and just throw out whoever is left that has a player on it you can name. Then you lose your fantasy matchup in Week 1 because the Ravens and their vaunted defense didn’t do crap against the Bills. Sorry.
What we’re about here is finding the best matchups to win in Week 1 and possibly a few weeks beyond. I’m not looking at the full season here. That’s not how fantasy defenses are generally played. The person in your league who drafts one DST and blindly rolls them out week after week is playing a negative EV game.
Use the resources of Fantasy Points Data and a little common sense to set yourself up for success. Now, we’re sure to miss a few, but last year we crushed these streaming options, and I’m confident we can find more top-10 options just sitting on our waiver wires.
For the ownership number, I’ll use Yahoo Fantasy Football and list those owned in under 50% of leagues.
The Best Fantasy Defense Streamers In Week 1
Arizona Cardinals (39%) @ NO — Last season, my team to target was whoever was opposite the Tennessee Titans. This season, it’s the New Orleans Saints. Their offensive line is fine, but not elite. Their weapons are familiar but not lethal. The story of the Saints is their quarterback play. Spencer Rattler is going to command the ship in the Big Easy, and that is music to every DST streamer's ears. Per Fantasy Points Data’s WR/CB Matchup Tool, all three of the Saints’ starting receivers have a negative-rated matchup. Love the Cards this week, and their schedule is great if you want to hang onto them. Their next five opponents after Tennessee are CAR, @ SF, vs SEA, vs TEN, and @ IND.
Check out the Fantasy Points WR/CB Matchup Tool.
Los Angeles Rams (22%) vs. HOU — So you’re telling me Jared Verse and friends get to feast on whatever this Texans OL is, at home, in Week 1. Wow. I’m floored that the Rams are so low-owned in season-long leagues. I think the Rams' front can make Houston one-dimensional, and that's in addition to the fact that the Texans' starting running back is dragging his leg like he’s a zombie in the Thriller video. Once Stroud is forced to drop back repeatedly, it will be a feeding frenzy against what is arguably the bottom-five line in the league.
Green Bay Packers (47%) vs DET — All summer, we’ve had the Packers ranked as the top fantasy DST in the Fantasy Points cheat sheets. Now, you may have heard that they’ve added some guy named Micah Parsons to help their already formidable defensive front. I doubt we see Parsons for more than a handful of packages, but in known passing situations, he’ll be on the field. Detroit is replacing three offensive linemen from last year’s team. That includes arguably the best center in the league, Frank Ragnow. I expect the Lions to take a step back this season, and thanks to this line, Jared Goff will see pressure in his face all season up the middle. People are scared off from using the Packers because of last year’s Lions fireworks on offense. The play caller is gone, and the line is severely downgraded. Always bet against Goff on the road as well.
New this year, I aim to incorporate elements of the excellent content available at Fantasy Points. For example, former Browns scout Scott DiBenedetto does a weekly OL/DL breakdown. This obviously is a cornerstone of what I do in this column. I’m looking for matchups we can exploit across the lines, with bad QB play, injuries, or awful play callers.
Washington Commanders (32%) vs NYG — Twice in his career, Russell Wilson has led the NFL in sacks taken. That reads really weird, but you get the point. I’m not buying the Giants' line or Wilson as much of an upgrade over what we saw last season for Big Blue. The Commanders have playmakers on all three levels of this defense, including two above-average corners in Marshon Lattimore and Mike Sainristil. I like Frankie Luvu and Bobby Wagner wreaking havoc on Wilson as he scrambles to avoid the rush. I’m calling a pick-six for DC in their opener.
New England Patriots (14%) vs LV — I love what the Pats did in their first offseason under Mike Vrabel. He’s a culture shifter and a hell of a coach. His new toys on defense include Carlton Davis on the outside and a slew of fresh faces along the front seven. This is almost an entirely new defense from a year ago. If there’s a weakness, it’s at safety, but can Geno Smith and Co. actually challenge the Pats deep? Give me the Pats to win and force a few turnovers Sunday in Foxboro, even if Christian Gonzalez sits.
Cincinnati Bengals (9%) @ CLE — This projects well because Joe Flacco is a walking turnover machine at this point in his career. He’s thrown 15 interceptions in his last 13 games played. Couple that with his inability to avoid pressure, and you’ve got the recipe for DST hijinks. The Bengals re-signed NFL sack leader Trey Hendrickson, but the rest of the defense stinks. The play here is that Flacco walks into more sacks and picks. Last year, in just eight games played, he was sacked 18 times. That was nearly 7% of the times he dropped back. It’s a bet on Father Time, and we know he’s undefeated.
Indianapolis Colts (1%) vs MIA — The folks at DraftKings are with me on this as they’ve priced the Colts at $2700, which is more expensive than the Ravens, Lions, and Texans. Indy actually has some talent. They’ve added studs to their backend, such as Charvarius Ward, Xavien Howard, and Cam Bynum. This secondary could become sneaky good for the first few weeks until the playing public catches on. Week 1 brings the Dolphins to the Crossroads of America. With them is an offensive line that was re-made to protect Tua Tagovailoa and give him time to find his receivers. We’ll see just how fast this new look ‘Phins front can gel. If you’re digging deep or maybe need a contrarian play, give the Colts a shot.
Top 10 projected Week 1 DSTs at Fantasy Points
NOTE: I do not construct the projections. D/STs owned in >50% of leagues highlighted
- Denver
- LA Rams
- Arizona Cardinals
- Pittsburgh Steelers
- Washington Commanders
- Minnesota Vikings
- Cincinnati Bengals
- Philadelphia Eagles
- Las Vegas Raiders
- Chicago Bears
