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Football games are more exciting with a rooting interest, and I’m here to make sure you have one for every standalone island game this season. Follow along as I offer and track my favorite player prop bets for Thursday Night, Sunday Night, Monday Night Football, and any other primetime matchup.
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D’Andre Swift (CHI) over 2.5 receptions (+115, DraftKings)
Swift quietly finished with a career-high 295 touches last year – 12th most among RBs. The sixth-year pro is in line for similar volume in 2025, especially to open the season, as backups Roschon Johnson (foot) and Kyle Monangai (hamstring) haven’t been fully available in the past few weeks of practice.
Hopefully, the hiring of Ben Johnson as head coach and the additions of Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman, and Jonah Jackson along the interior O-line will boost Swift’s rushing efficiency. He finished 39th in yards per carry (3.79) and yards after contact per attempt (2.14) among 46 backs with 100+ carries, and he was dead last in Next Gen Stats’ rushing yards over expected per attempt (-0.69).
Considering those figures, and the tough matchup on the ground – Minnesota finished first in EPA per carry allowed last year before signing DTs Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave in the offseason – we’ll look to the passing game to cash in on Swift’s expected workload.
Johnson’s Lions ranked fourth in running back receptions (95) and first in receiving yards (945) in 2024. Swift ranked top-six at the position in both categories when he played under Johnson in 2021 and 2022. Meanwhile, Brian Flores’ Vikings paced the league in blitz rate (38.9%) and two-high safety coverages (63.6%) last year, which opens the door to quick throws underneath.
Johnson likely wants Caleb Williams to get the ball out of his hands quickly against Flores’ aggressive unit. Swift should be one of the main beneficiaries of that plan. Our projections have him with 2.6 receptions for 19.5 yards.
2025 betting record: 1-2 (33%, -1.31 units)
