Welcome to Primetime Props!
Football games are more exciting with a rooting interest, and I’m here to make sure you have one for every standalone island game this season. Follow along as I offer and track my favorite player prop bets for Thursday Night, Sunday Night, Monday Night Football, and any other primetime matchup.
This is a FREE PREVIEW of Primetime Props. It will be available going forward with our NFL Premium and All-In packages.
George Pickens (Dal) under 4.5 receptions (-145, Bet365)
Look, I’ve been in on Pickens as much as anyone else this summer. Through his first three NFL seasons, he’s ranked 4th, 15th, and 4th in targets of 20+ air yards while catching passes from five different quarterbacks. Now the downfield playmaker will be targeted by Dak Prescott, who ranked top-8 in attempts, completions, and catchable throw rate on deep passes from Weeks 1-9 last season.
Beyond seeing higher-quality targets, Pickens will also see a higher volume. The Cowboys finished third in pass attempts (637) last season, even with Prescott missing the second half of the season, while the Steelers ranked 29th (499). Dallas isn’t expected to shift away from its fast-paced, pass-happy system under new coach Brian Schottenheimer.
Considering the environmental upgrade – and the fact that the ‘Boys are an 8.5-point underdog against the Birds (the largest point spread of Week 1) – it’s easy to get excited about Pickens’ first game with the star on his helmet.
Let’s pump the brakes.
As Tom Brolley noted in our Week 1 Game Hub, Philadelphia allowed the second-fewest YPRR (1.63) and the third-fewest YPG (82.2) to receivers aligned out wide last season. They also allowed the fourth-fewest completions (18) and the third-lowest completion percentage (29%) on passes 20+ yards downfield.
Veteran corners Darius Slay, Avonte Maddox, and Isaiah Rodgers departed in the offseason, but second-year studs Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean remain. With the latter primarily manning the slot, Pickens will see a lot of Mitchell, who allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points per route in 2024. Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has deployed him on both sides of the formation during training camp so he can be used on shadow assignments in 2025.
Though the game script figures to be favorable, Pickens has a tough on-paper matchup. Expect Prescott to focus more on CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson at the short and intermediate levels against Fangio’s zone-heavy scheme.
Given Pickens’ home run ability, I prefer his under for receptions rather than his under for yardage. Our Week 1 projections have him at 3.7 receptions for 53.8 yards.
