2021 Player Props Record: 75-47 (61.5%) 2022 Player Props Record: 85-68 (55.6%) 2023 Player Props Record: 79-59 (57.2%) 2024 Player Props Record: 70-50 (58.3%)
Welcome to the 2025 fantasy football regular season! Not to show my age but this is the 39th consecutive fall that I’ve been playing fantasy football and I like to think I’ve learned a thing or two throughout these years. While that may be true, I KNOW that the team here at Fantasy Points led by John Hansen has taken fantasy research and analysis to a whole new level I never could have imagined when I was selecting Jerry Rice with my first-ever draft pick in 1987. Each week in this space you’ll get my recommended player prop bets and “anytime” touchdown scorer bets.
Before we get to this week’s recommended plays, here’s some background on the process I use to find the props featured in this article. Looking to get an edge over the sportsbooks, a handful of years ago I started manually comparing each of John Hansen’s player projections to the player props offered by the books. I looked for the largest discrepancies between John’s numbers and the books’ numbers to identify betting opportunities. In the old days, I had to look up each prop myself.
Now, our prop finder tool does that hard work for me. I use the tool to find the biggest discrepancies, and then I decide which props I like best – shopping the various books for the most favorable odds, of course. I’ve developed a good feel and a baseline for what constitutes a “significant” discrepancy between the projections and the props, and I’ve been betting accordingly.
Best Bets
Here are my recommended “discrepancy” plays of the week followed by a list of the most significant discrepancies I considered for this article:
