The NFL season is back, and so is the Fantasy Points PrizePicks Pick Finder — this time for a full season from Week 1 onward. Last year, the tool changed the way players approached building lineups on PrizePicks once it launched midseason. Now, you get the edge from the very start.
Each week, I’ll spotlight the biggest gaps between Fantasy Points expert projections and PrizePicks lines. These differences create opportunities you can lock in right away — whether you’re chasing weekly wins or building a season-long foundation.
To fully leverage Fantasy Points' projections, check out my tutorial on navigating the site for optimal results. This guide will ensure you’re making the best picks each week.
Projections are current as of 9:00 PM EST on 9/04.
NFL Week 1 Picks
Derrick Henry (RB, BAL)
Fantasy Score (Standard) — MORE
PrizePicks: 14.5
Fantasy Points: 16.2
On the Dynasty Points show, my Super Bowl winner prediction was the Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens open against Buffalo’s rebuilt defensive line, and Henry enters in peak form. Aside from a slower stretch between Weeks 10–15, Henry consistently outproduced expectations; he crushed projections nearly every week, dipping under this number only once — in Week 1. Baltimore stumbled early in 2024, but this offense is expected to attack earlier in 2025, with Henry remaining the centerpiece. Expect him to dominate from the opening kickoff.
Drake Maye (QB, NE)
Fantasy Score (Standard) — MORE
PrizePicks: 17.0
Fantasy Points: 18.4
Maye sailed past this projection in his last three fully healthy starts in 2024. New England rebuilt the offense this offseason. Stefon Diggs is coming off an injury, but Kyle Williams has the makings of a deep threat that this offense has been sorely lacking. With more balance and explosiveness, Maye enters 2025 with a stronger supporting cast than ever. Against a Vegas defense that stood pat instead of reloading, Maye should continue piling up production and clear 17 fantasy points.
Tee Higgins (WR, CIN)
Receiving Yards (Standard) — MORE
PrizePicks: 63.5
Fantasy Points: 74.8
Cincinnati's offensive line struggled in the preseason, but the extended playing time is expected to help the offense get off to a quick start. This is a plus matchup against a susceptible Browns defense. The Bengals’ defense showed leaks during August, which could force a shootout in Week 1. If Cleveland pushes the pace, Higgins becomes one of Joe Burrow’s primary answers and has every chance to eclipse 70 yards.
Josh Downs (WR, IND)
Rec Yards (Demon) — MORE
PrizePicks: 49.5
Fantasy Points: 53.5
Wanting to add a little excitement to your lineup? Downs enters 2025 as one of the most hyped young receivers. With Daniel Jones starting over Anthony Richardson, his floor rises — he topped this projection in six of seven games without Richardson last year. His role in the short and intermediate passing game gives Jones an easy target to stabilize drives. This Demon pick carries excitement and reliability, making Downs a strong lineup addition to open the season.
Tony Pollard (RB, TEN)
Rush Yards (Goblin) — MORE
PrizePicks: 49.5
Fantasy Points: 71.2
Pollard offers the safest Goblin pick of the week. Without Tyjae Spears in the lineup, he consistently crushed this projection, often by 10+ yards. Denver still fields one of the league’s most disciplined run defenses, but Tennessee plans to pound the rock to ease rookie quarterback Cam Ward into his first start. The Titans lean on Pollard as a stabilizer, and his volume makes 50 rushing yards a reachable floor with upside to spare.
NFL Season-long Picks
Week 1 sets the stage not just for opening matchups but for long-term edges, and several season-long projections jump off the board. I built early lineups around these players because their projections remain too modest. Nico Collins headlines the Fantasy Points favorites who already command target-heavy roles. Rookies like Tetairoa McMillan and Ward enter the season undervalued, giving sharp players an early buying opportunity. And of course, proven studs such as Henry and Trey McBride continue to deliver reliable production year after year.
The table below highlights some of my favorite season-long plays, with gaps between PrizePicks and Fantasy Points projections too wide to ignore. These picks provide a foundation for profitable season-long strategies.
| Player | Pos | Team | Prop | Prize Picks | Fantasy Points Projection | Difference | % Difference | Odds | Strength |
| Christian McCaffrey | RB | SF | Rush+Rec Yds | 1399.5 | 1628.7 | 229.2 | 16.38% | standard | 90 |
| Saquon Barkley | RB | PHI | Rush+Rec Yds | 1699.5 | 1898.2 | 198.7 | 11.69% | standard | 90 |
| Derrick Henry | RB | BLT | Rush+Rec Yds | 1500.5 | 1694.6 | 194.1 | 12.94% | standard | 90 |
| Nico Collins | WR | HST | Receiving Yards | 1150.5 | 1356.8 | 206.3 | 17.93% | standard | 90 |
| Puka Nacua | WR | LA | Receiving Yards | 1199.5 | 1354.9 | 155.4 | 12.96% | standard | 90 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | WR | CAR | Receptions | 60.5 | 78.7 | 18.2 | 30.08% | standard | 90 |
| Jerry Jeudy | WR | CLV | Receptions | 62.5 | 80.2 | 17.7 | 28.32% | standard | 90 |
| Trey McBride | TE | ARZ | Receptions | 87.5 | 103 | 15.5 | 17.71% | standard | 48 |
| J.J. McCarthy | QB | MIN | Pass Yards | 3600.5 | 3979 | 378.5 | 10.51% | standard | 90 |
| Cam Ward | QB | TEN | Pass Yards | 3199.5 | 3460 | 260.5 | 8.14% | standard | 90 |
| Michael Penix | QB | ATL | Pass Yards | 3425.5 | 3659 | 233.5 | 6.82% | standard | 90 |
The Fantasy Points Discord is the exclusive place to find 300+ projection comparisons for the full season. Week 1 is the best time to join.
Closing Remarks
Football is finally back, and I’m fired up to bring this write-up to you for Year 2. This season promises more action, sharper projections, and even better opportunities to win with the PrizePicks Pick Finder.
To get even more from the experience, make sure to join the Fantasy Points Discord. It’s where you’ll find real-time updates, valuable advice, and an active community of fantasy players ready to share insights and strategies. Whether you're seeking last-minute tips, looking to ask questions about the tool, or just wanting to connect with others and share your success stories, the Discord has you covered.
