2024 Top-5 Sunday Props Record: 50-39 (56%) 2024 Sunday Props Record: 231-185 (55.5%) 2024 MNF/TNF/X-MAS Props Record: 64-51 (55.7%) 2024 TD Prop Bankroll: +$380 (based on betting $100 for each play).
We bounced back on Friday night with a 4-1 showing after a brutal 1-4 TNF showing after Javonte Williams came 1 catch and 2 yards shy of two wins and Jake Ferguson failed to haul in that potential TD in the endzone (or the throw before, which was underthrown) to cost us another win and a shot at 4-1.
I’m posting my Sunday picks late Saturday afternoon, which means my research for the week is complete. I’ll usually post these around this time (5:45 PM ET), FYI.
TOP-5 SUNDAY PROPS - My top-5 Sunday props are obviously my best plays of the day, and I track them separately and view them as my top priority each week. As always, these are listed in order of appeal/priority. For my reasoning on all these plays, feel free to check out Hansen’s Hints, published on Saturday evenings.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown O64.5 receiving yards (-113, DraftKings)
- Joe Flacco O244.5 passing yards (-112, DraftKings)
- Brian Thomas Jr. O76.5 passing yards (-112, DraftKings)
- Josh Downs O47.5 receiving yards (-110, DraftKings)
- Jonnu Smith O26.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)
The Rest of my Sunday Props
As always, these are listed in order of appeal/priority.
- David Njoku O49.5 receiving yards (-114, DraftKings)
- James Conner O69.5 rushing yards (-112, DraftKings)
- Terry McLaurin O56.5 receiving yards (-113, DraftKings)
- Tank Bixby O43.5 rushing yards (-110, DraftKings)
- Nico Collins O82.5 receiving yards (-110, DraftKings)
- Mike Evans O72.5 receiving yards (-111, DraftKings)
- TreVeyon Henderson O40.5 rushing yards (-114, DraftKings)
- Jared Goff O247.5 passing yards (-111, DraftKings)
- Joe Burrow O7.5 rushing yards (-111, DraftKings)
- Jaylen Warren O52.5 rushing yards (-113, DraftKings)
- Brent Strange O30.5 receiving yards (-110, DraftKings)
- Ricky Pearsall O44.5 receiving yards (-111, DraftKings)
Monday Night Football Props
- T.J. Hockenson O45.5 receiving yards (-113, DraftKings)
- J.J. McCarthy O1.5 TD passes (+122, DraftKings)
- D.J. Moore O56.5 receiving yards (-112, DraftKings)
Friday Night Football Props
Keenan Allen over 36.5 receiving yards (-120, Fanatics)
The Chiefs allowed the NFL’s highest target share to opposing slots (39.2%) and gave up the most schedule-adjusted FPG to the slot (+4.5) to inside receivers while allowing the 2nd-fewest to the outside (-4.1), so things set up well for Allen, who we’re guessing plays inside more often than not. Quentin Johnston coming off the concussion and the next two wideouts on the depth chart are rookies, and we’re projecting 43.4% over this number.
Isaiah Pacheco over 8.5 receiving yards (-114, DraftKings)
The Chargers play a lot of two-high safety coverage, which makes things easier on Pacheco, and given the absence of Rashee Rice and the poor matchup for their other receivers, I see 2-3 targets for Pacheco. The Chargers also allowed the NFL’s 4th-highest target share to opposing backfields (18.0%), and there is no clear receiving option in KC right now.
Justin Herbert over 14.5 rushing yards (-118, DraftKings)
Despite playing with a ton of foot/ankle issues, Herbert posted career-highs in rushing attempts (69) and yards (306) last season, and two thirds of his rushing attempts came in the second half of the season. KC gave up 374 yards on scrambles last year, 3rd most in the NFL, and Herbert also had the 7th most scrambles against two high coverage last year (KC ran the second highest two high rate, 60.8%).
JuJu Smith-Schuster over 19.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel)
The Chargers are very zone-heavy, which is not great for KC’s top receiving threats Kelce and Worthy, but it is for JuJu, who’s always been good at getting open against zone. He hit this in their last meeting with 2/31 on two targets last year.
Patrick Mahomes over 3.5 rushing attempts (-118, DraftKings)
He’s hit this in four of his last six games, and the Chargers defense will force him to be patient and dink-and-dunk, so I expect Mahomes to use his legs to move the sticks quite a bit.
Friday Night Football TD Props
Kareem Hunt anytime TD (+360)
