2025 Top-5 Sunday Props Record: 1-4 (20%) 2025 Props Record (all games): 10-20 (33%) 2025 MNF Props Record: 1-2 (33%)2025 TNF/FNF Props Record: 5-5 (50%) 2025 TD Prop Bankroll: ($500)
My Week 1 was so bad that I’m actually thinking about tracking my record AFTER the opener, since my record was so horrendous, easily the worst week of prop picks in my life, and I might not recover from it all year record-wise.
Of course, last year, after two weeks, my Sunday props record was a very poor 27-36 (43%), and four weeks later it was up 102-76 (58.5%), so I did get off to a slow start the first two weeks of the season.
There’s nothing I can do about this situation other than to try to keep firing with strong selections and hope to start stacking winning weeks, and that’s what I’m doing.
Thursday Night Football Props
Zach Ertz OVER 31.5 receiving yards (-114, FanDuel) The Packers have been an underneath funnel dating back to last year, and since the start of 2024, they have allowed the second-fewest receiving YPG on deep throws (29.1) but on throws of 10 or fewer yards downfield, they’ve allowed the 9th-most over that timeframe (135.8). Last week, they didn’t allow any receiving yards on throws of 20+ yards downfield. This is a plus for Ertz (7.2 aDOT), who was second in target share at 16.7% and targets per route run, and also second on the team in first-read target share per FPD. It’s a decent schematic matchup with Green Bay using Cover 3 or Cover 2 74.4% of the time last week, and Ertz averaged a solid 1.74 YPRR against those coverages last season. The Packers also allowed the eighth-most receiving YPG (57.1) to TEs last season, and Sam LaPorta got them for 6/79 receiving in the opener.
