2025 Week 2 WR/CB Fantasy Matchups

With Fantasy Points Data we wanted to answer one big question: what if we tailored all of the data our team has gathered (hand-charted from our team of experts) directly to the fantasy player?

Based on years of playing season-long fantasy, dynasty, and DFS — and using all the charted data out there to build models and try to gain an advantage in a game where the margins are shrinking — we believe we’ve found where we can do things better. That is the Fantasy Points Data Suite.

The Data Suite (with the keen eye of lead charter Steve O’Rourke) allows me to analyze WR/CB fantasy matchups better than I was ever able to in the past.

NOTE: It should go without saying, but we’re dealing with as small a sample as is possible right now. This column should be just one element of your lineup research.

WR/CB Tool

Our WR/CB Matchup Tool is sortable with loads of matchup data.

A note on our process: there are very few situations in the NFL in which one receiver will match up with one corner for the vast majority of his routes. So honestly, WR/CB matchups in the traditional sense are perhaps the most overrated form of fantasy analysis.

We aim to do them better: our process breaks down how many routes a receiver runs from a certain alignment, and assigns a weighted score based on how much that receiver is expected to see a given defender based on those alignments. So it will measure how often we expect a receiver to face all defenders in a matchup, not just one particular defender, and weigh a score by those expected percentages.

If I do believe there will be a “shadow CB” situation, I’ll mention it and break down the matchup.

Shadow Situations

SHADOW ALERT! Jets CB Sauce Gardner vs. Bills WR Keon Coleman

When you put your data out in public, it’s bound to receive some scrutiny. And it’s especially going to receive scrutiny when it potentially suggests a breakout player didn’t have a perfect game.

That’s what happened with our numbers on Keon Coleman, whom we charted as having not “earned” a single route win in Week 1’s game against the Ravens despite an overall fantastic 8/112/1 statline on 11 targets. I’ll let Steve O’Rourke explain our process in the below tweet, and then you can decide for yourself if we’re displaying the data “incorrectly.”

But as Steve gets to, separation metrics are not the end-all and be-all. We’ve found our separation metrics to be highly predictive compared to other metrics, but they will never touch actual production metrics. And from a production standpoint, Coleman was fantastic in Week 1! Moreover, his usage was great: his route percentage jumped to 82.7% and his target share jumped to 23.9% after sitting at 68.8% and 14.4% in 2024. That should be the biggest takeaway from Coleman’s Week 1, and it indeed suggests a breakout is looming, because Josh Allen seems to have developed trust with his big-bodied second-year WR.

But this week, Coleman’s improvement will be put to the test. Of his 43 routes last week, 39 of them were run from the outside. And that means he’s likely to catch a shadow from Sauce Gardner. If you’ll remember, Gardner had a down 2024 season, like the rest of the Jets team. You might also remember that Gardner typically played on one side of the formation, rarely shadowing the opposition’s top WR (he mainly played LCB).

Under new head coach Aaron Glenn, that changed in Week 1. Gardner aligned over Steelers top WR DK Metcalf on 24 routes — 89% of the routes Metcalf ran in Week 1, more than any individual coverage matchup Sauce had last year. And when Gardner was the closest defender to the ball, he allowed just 1 catch for 11 yards on 4 targets thrown Metcalf’s way. That was the only catch Gardner allowed all day, and he surrendered none of Aaron Rodgers’ 4 TD passes. (Metcalf finished with 4 catches for 83 yards, but his two longest receptions came on a slot rep and a screen on which Gardner aligned off the ball and got blocked.)

And the 11-yard catch Gardner did allow? You can argue he actually broke it up! It ended up being a circus catch for Metcalf.

All this is to say that Coleman’s potential breakout will be put to the test, if Gardner’s Week 1 has anything to say about it. It was a rough debut for Glenn’s defense, but Gardner absolutely stood out as being poised for a (re?)breakout year of his own.

Last year, Gardner aligned over Coleman on a total of 12 routes. He allowed no catches on 1 target.

Coleman might well be an emerging star. If he puts up numbers against Sauce this week, it will be impossible to deny. For fantasy, he’s a low-end WR3 for me, and a downgrade because of the matchup — the biggest question I have is if the Jets will view Coleman as a similar threat to Metcalf and truly shadow him, or mix in some looks on Josh Palmer (the Bills’ best separator vs. man coverage). With only one week of data, it’s hard to know for sure.

SHADOW ALERT! Broncos CB Patrick Surtain II vs. Colts WR Alec Pierce

Based on last week’s usage, we’re predicting Surtain will follow Pierce more than Michael Pittman, who went into the slot more against the Dolphins (21% of his routes vs. just 12% for Pierce). But it’s possible the Broncos view Pittman — who had the bigger Week 1 game with 6/80/1 receiving on 8 targets — as the more dangerous receiver and will selectively put Surtain on him when Pittman does line up out wide.

It’s worth noting that when these two teams met in Week 15 last year, Surtain didn’t shadow — he aligned over Pittman on 40% of his routes, over Pierce on 29% of his routes, and over AD Mitchell on 25% of his routes. The coverage matchup was inconsistent, but the coverage wasn’t — Surtain didn’t allow a single catch in that matchup. He didn’t allow one against the Titans last week either.

Daniel Jones was awesome last week, but this Broncos defense is a much different test.

I would prefer to keep Pittman on my bench, and Pierce is nowhere near lineups after catching just 1 pass last week.

All Systems Go

Eagles WRs vs. Chiefs DBs

One thing that’s worked well for me in this column the last couple of years is calling Eagles coach Nick Sirianni a reliable “squeaky-wheel greaser.” In fact, the last time I used that term was in Week 15 of last year. It was after the Eagles’ unimpressive win over the Panthers, and AJ Brown’s one-word comment that “passing” is what needed to improve in the Eagles’ offense. The very next week, Brown went off for 8/110/1 on 11 targets against the Steelers, and scored in each of his final three regular-season games.

This week, Brown and DeVonta Smith go up against a Chiefs defense that allowed 74.8 fantasy points to the Chargers’ WRs last week, second-most to only the Ravens against the Bills (84.4). You also might remember the last time these two teams played — both Brown and Smith scored touchdowns in a Super Bowl LIX rout.

The Chiefs’ secondary does have some name value, especially top CB Trent McDuffie, but this is a unit that can be had.

Also keep in mind that Eagles TE Dallas Goedert — who led them with 7 catches last week — is dealing with a knee sprain and might miss this game. That means one fewer top target for Jalen Hurts, but also one fewer effective blocker for Saquon Barkley and this Philly run game. Remember that this Chiefs defense forced the Eagles to the air in the Super Bowl last year… much like they did the Chargers in Week 1. That worked out well for both passing games.

My biggest concern is that Brown simply didn’t look healthy last week (remember that he dealt with a hamstring injury for much of August). I’ll be going back to the well with him in managed leagues, but I actually think DeVonta Smith in the slot (69% slot rate in Week 1) against Chamarri Conner is the more exploitable matchup for DFS.

Ravens WR Zay Flowers vs. Browns CB Myles Harden

Another year, another opportunity for Flowers to blow up our Average Separation Score metric (forgive Brett Whitefield for not using dark mode on the Data Suite).

That Week 1 performance — which obviously included a fantastic 7/143/1 on 9 targets — came after he finished 6th overall in ASS in 2024 and 13th in 2023 (actually behind teammate Rashod Bateman in both years). So we know Flowers can get open, and Lamar Jackson loves him. Flowers was targeted on 45% of his 20 routes in Week 1. Among WRs with 10 or more routes run, only Jaxon Smith-Njigba (62%) and Puka Nacua (52%) had a higher TPRR% in Week 1.

This week, Flowers — who ran 45% of his routes from the slot last week — will draw a matchup with the inexperienced Myles Harden, a 2024 7th-round pick out of South Dakota who has played just five NFL games. Harden won the battle for the Browns’ nickel CB job in training camp, and he surrendered just a single reception against the Bengals last week, but the Bengals’ offense was broken, as it typically is early in the season.

I consider this a much tougher test, and I wouldn’t be shocked if Harden has a “welcome to the NFL” moment against one of the league’s best route runners. Flowers is a locked-in WR2 for me. The question is just how much the Ravens will have to throw as near two-TD favorites (which always signals a Derrick Henry game).

Lions WRs vs. Bears DBs

This is more of a “monitor the injury report” type of situation, because the Bears were down their top outside CB (Jaylon Johnson) and top slot CB (Kyler Gordon) against the Vikings in Week 1, so they needed Nahshon Wright and Nick McCloud to pick up the slack.

Lions slot WR Amon-Ra St. Brown had two solid games against the Bears last year, totaling 11/143/1 on 15 targets, but none of those receptions came with Gordon as the primary defender. Meanwhile, Jameson Williams had an especially strong Week 16 game against Chicago last year — he caught 5 passes for 143 yards and a score, which was an 82-yarder on which he ran past Tyrique Stevenson and Jonathan Owens. But he didn’t catch a pass on Johnson in that game.

The Lions are going to want to get their offense back on track in Week 2 after a disastrous Week 1. If one or both of Johnson and Gordon is out, things will be much easier.

Chiefs WRs JuJu Smith-Schuster and Tyquan Thornton vs. Eagles CB Adoree’ Jackson

Here’s an example of this column trying to dig into the weeds for DFS and potential prop bets. I would recommended neither JuJu nor Thornton in all but the deepest of managed leagues, but at prices of $4000 and $3600, respectively, on the DraftKings main slate, you might be able to get a handful of catches and a TD (in JuJu’s case) or a big play (in Thornton’s case) against the veteran Jackson, who was torched by the Cowboys in Week 1.

We charted Jackson as having given up 103 yards receiving in his primary coverage, and while the overwhelming majority of that (72 yards) was to CeeDee Lamb, a receiver three times what Smith-Schuster or Thornton is, it would certainly make sense that the Chiefs would rather attack him than Quinyon Mitchell outside or Cooper DeJean in the slot.

Thornton (70%) and JuJu (76%) were the Chiefs’ primary outside receivers after Xavier Worthy (shoulder) went down. They could change that with a week of gameplanning to try to get Hollywood Brown the best matchup, but in terms of cost and leverage against the field, these two receivers have the advantage.

Pump the Brakes

Chiefs WR Hollywood Brown vs. Eagles CB Cooper DeJean

This column is rife with small-sample caveats, so here’s another one: Brown was the Chiefs’ primary slot WR against the Chargers in Week 1, but it’s impossible to know how much of that was simply to stick to a gameplan that had, apparently, an extensive plan for Xavier Worthy on the perimeter. If he is the Chiefs’ primary slot receiver again this week, he’ll have a matchup with DeJean, who gave up just a single catch for 0 yards in his primary coverage against the Cowboys in Week 1, on two targets. It’s possible that DeJean is already the best slot corner in football, and it’s the reason why the Eagles are willing to stick with veteran Adoree’ Jackson on the outside for the time being, because DeJean just gives them so much inside.

Brown was a hot waiver-wire pickup this week, and for good reason — he had 16 targets in a Patrick Mahomes offense. And that’s going to make him popular in DFS as well, given his $5200 salary is not restrictive.

But there are two questions: will the Chiefs use him similarly to how they did last week, meaning he has the tough matchup with DeJean? Or will they change and try to get him on the outside more? And if the latter is true, might the Eagles selectively shadow Brown with Quinyon Mitchell?

I think there are enough doubts to consider going against the chalk in DFS, while Brown is a WR2 in managed leagues.

Panthers WR Tetairoa McMillan vs. Cardinals CB Will Johnson

Let’s just say I’m treating this as more of a matchup to watch than a true “avoid” situation. I do not intend to sit McMillan — who had a 22.9% team target share and 40.6% team air yards share in Week 1, easily leading the Panthers — in managed leagues.

But for DFS purposes, it’s hard to ignore that Bryce Young didn’t look as sharp as he did at the end of the 2024 season. And on the other side of McMillan is another rookie coming off an impressive debut. Johnson was once considered a top CB prospect who fell to the second round in April because of injury concerns. After one game, it looks like the Cardinals got a steal.

Per our charting, Johnson was targeted 6 times as the closest defender to the ball. He allowed just 3 catches for 21 yards on those targets. He had an interception called back by penalty (across the field, not one he committed), and also laid the wood when called upon. Moreover, we charted him as having played 18 coverage snaps at RCB and 14 coverage snaps at LCB, moving all around the formation in his first game.

It’s too early to draw sweeping conclusions, but if Johnson gets anywhere close to that level of play the rest of this season, Arizona might have a future shadow CB.