2023 Wild Card Stat Pack


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2023 Wild Card Stat Pack

Welcome to this special edition Stat-Pack for the Wild Card round.

We’ll go game-by-game to uncover the most important stats for every player.

All of the stats in this article are from Fantasy Points Data and specifically curated from the Data Suite. Our collection team has charted every play from every game over the last three seasons, and we have fresh, weekly data imported into the tools on Tuesday mornings after the games.

If you’re betting, in the player prop streets, or playing DFS – good luck this week!

Browns at Texans


Joe Flacco

1. In his five starts, the Browns passed the ball +5.6% above expectation.

1b. In Weeks 1-12, the Browns ranked 28th in pass rate above expected (-2.4%).

1c. Basically, the Browns went from bottom-5 in pass rate to top-5 with Flacco under center.

2. Flacco is averaging 323.2 passing yards on 40.8 pass attempts per game (7.9 YPA) per start. He scored 19.8 fantasy points per game in Weeks 13-17. For reference, that would have made him the QB5 over the full season, just behind Dak Prescott (19.9).

3. The thing is – Flacco has left some meat on the bone. From a clean pocket, 22% of Flacco’s throws have been off-target (3rd-highest rate).

Amari Cooper

4. Cooper has gone off for 25/485/3 receiving (on 42 targets) in 13 quarters of work with Joe Flacco.

4b. Cooper paced for 12.9 targets per start with Flacco – which would easily be a league-high.

5. Obviously, Cooper lifted off against Houston for 11/265/2 receiving in their Week 16 meeting. Even if you wiped that game from your memory – we’d be dialing up Cooper as an upside WR1 play here. Houston is allowing a league-high 2.32 yards per route run to opposing outside receivers.

5b. Over their last 10 games, Houston played two-high safety coverage on 62% of their opponents dropbacks (3rd-highest rate).

5c. Against two-high safety coverages, Cooper leads the Browns in first-read targets (29% share), and he’s averaging a stellar 2.99 yards per route run.

5d. Cooper and Flacco are crushing one-high safety looks, too. Cooper has earned 33% of the first-reads, and he’s averaging an incredible 4.34 YPRR against one-high coverages.

David Njoku

6. Njoku went on a tear for 30/390/4 receiving (on 45 targets) from Weeks 13-17 with Flacco.

6b. That production (18.4 PPR points per game) would have not only made Njoku the overall TE1 on the season, but he also would have finished as fantasy’s WR6 by points per game over Puka Nacua (17.6).

6c. In Flacco’s five starts, Njoku is averaging a monster 3.00 yards per route run against two-high safety coverages. Njoku’s efficiency has dipped a little bit (1.84 YPRR) against one-high looks.

7. Njoku finished as a top-12 scoring fantasy tight end in 10 of his last 13 games, and he was a top-8 option in seven of his final 8 outings.

Elijah Moore

8. If Cedric Tillman (concussion) is out, then Elijah Moore would get a boost. Tillman earned 11.6% of the targets with Flacco, and Moore was at 15%. Moore and David Bell will work out of the slot against the Texans, and this is a decent matchup. Houston is allowing 7.7 receptions per game to slot wideouts (tied for 5th-most).

Jerome Ford and Kareem Hunt

9. In their last five games together, Ford led the Browns backfield committee in snaps (48% to 35%), carries (56 to 46), and targets (18 to 8) over Hunt.

9b. The problem is that the Browns continue to slightly prefer Kareem Hunt over Jerome Ford in the red-zone. From Weeks 13-17, Hunt saw more snaps (13 to 8) and carries (7 to 4) over Ford inside-the-10 yard line.

10. Houston closed out the regular season by playing stellar run defense. In their last 10 games, the Texans allowed 3.16 YPC (2nd-fewest) and a league-low 38.8% success rate.


C.J. Stroud

1. Stroud finished a stellar rookie season as the QB9 by fantasy points per game (18.3).

1b. Stroud’s 273.9 passing yards per game ranks 3rd-most by a rookie QB all-time, and his 18.3 FPG ranks 5th-best.

2. He ranks 2nd in YPA (9.0), 3rd in passing YPG (157.6), 5th in fantasy points per dropback (0.51), and 5th in passer rating (104.5) against single-high coverage.

2b. Cleveland runs single-high at the league’s highest rate (67%) – H/T Jake Tribbey.

2c. Over their last 10 games, the Browns allowed a league-low 0.31 fantasy points per dropback when they played single-high safety coverage.

3. Houston is tied for 7th in pass rate over expectation (+4.2%) in Stroud’s last six starts.

4. In four games without Tank Dell, the Texans have funneled targets to Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz. Stroud has targeted his top duo on 52.2% of his attempts, and Collins and Schultz have accounted for 65.1% of the Texans' air yards.

Nico Collins

5. In his last five full games with Stroud under center, Nico Collins has gone off for 7/65 receiving (vs. ARI), 7/104/1 (vs. JAX), 9/191/1 (vs. DEN), 7/80 (vs. TEN), and 9/195/1 (vs. IND).

5b. Collins was held to 4/18/1 (on six targets) in Week 16 vs. Cleveland with backups Case Keenum/Davis Mills under center. He was also partially limited by calf injury in that game, and he played on a season-low 47% of the snaps.

6. Against one-high safety coverages, Collins is averaging a stellar 3.85 yards per route run. His efficiency dips – only slightly – to 2.92 YPRR against two-high looks.

7. In four games without Tank Dell (and with Stroud starting), Collins has earned a whopping 39.5% of the first-read targets. The next closest Texan is Dalton Schultz (24.6%). Houston’s passing offense is going to be even more concentrated around Collins and Schultz with Noah Brown (back) and Robert Woods (hip) questionable.

Dalton Schultz

8. In his last 10 games not shortened by injuries, Dalton Schultz is averaging 4.5 receptions, 49.6 yards, and he’s scored 4 TDs (on 6.9 targets per game… nice).

Devin Singletary

9. In last week’s must-win game, Singletary set a season-high in snaps (88%).

9b. The downside for Singletary’s fantasy outlook is that he’s barely utilized in the passing game. Singletary has seen more than 3 targets just twice in 15 games started by Stroud.

9c. Over the final 10 games of the season, the Browns played boom-or-bust run defense. Cleveland allowed 4.34 YPC (9th-most) and gave up a league-high 10.6% explosive run rate (gains of 15+ yards) from Weeks 9-18. However, they gave up the 3rd-lowest success rate (43%) on a per-carry basis in this stretch.

Dolphins at Chiefs


Tua Tagovailoa

1. Tua closed his fantasy football regular season on a downturn. He finished outside of the top-15 scoring QBs in six of his last 8 outings, and struggled in his final two games against Buffalo and Baltimore.

2. Tagovailoa was held to just 193 passing yards (on 34 attempts) when these two teams met in Germany in Week 9. That game was brutal, and both teams had their bye weeks afterwards.

2b. In that game, the Chiefs deployed their usual two-high safety coverages on 74% of the Dolphins pass plays.

2c. Tua ranks 3rd-best in YPA (7.9) and passer rating (101.7) against two-high safety coverages. No quarterback is getting the ball out faster against two-high looks than Tua (2.24 seconds time to throw).

Tyreek Hill

3. Playing through a high ankle sprain that he sustained in Week 14, Tyreek is averaging a much more human-like 6.5 receptions and 79.5 yards per contest over his last four outings.

3b. From Weeks 1-13 at full health, Tyreek was putting up a ridiculous 7.8 receptions and 123.4 yards (!!) per contest.

3c. Hill scored 12 of his 13 TDs in Weeks 1-13.

4. As you’d expect, Tyreek is a little less explosive and efficient when facing two-high safety coverages as opposing defenses try to take away Miami’s deep passing game. It’s all relative, though. Hill is averaging a ridiculous 3.56 yards per route run against two-high looks, and that spikes to an absurd 4.81 YPRR when facing one-high safety coverages. I don’t think Tyreek’s former team is going to give him many one-high safety looks.

Jaylen Waddle

5. In Week 9, Kansas City used Cover-4 and Cover-6 zones on 47.1% of the Dolphins pass plays.

5b. Waddle is absolutely crushing those two-high safety zone looks. In fact, Jaylen Waddle actually leads Tyreek Hill in targets per route run (0.38 to 0.33) and yards per route run (4.48 to 3.05) when facing Cover-4 or Cover-6 zone.

5c. Against all other coverages, Waddle is averaging 2.54 YPPR.

Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane

6. After missing Miami’s last two games with knee/ankle injuries, Raheem Mostert will return for the Wild Card round. This backfield was a split committee when Mostert and rookie phenom De’Von Achane were both healthy.

6b. In their seven games together, Achane (50%) and Mostert (49%) basically split snaps right down the middle.

6c. Achane gets more passing down work (48% route share) compared to Mostert (35%).

6d. However, Mostert is the lead RB in the red-zone. On plays inside-the-10, Mostert leads Achane in carries 20 to 10.

7. The Chiefs are burnable on the ground. Achane (knee) did not play in their Week 9 meeting, either. Over the final 10 weeks of the season, Kansas City allowed 4.28 YPC (12th-most) and a 51.1% success rate on those carries (9th-highest).

Kansas City

Patrick Mahomes

1. Mahomes closed the season as fantasy’s QB29, QB11, QB15, QB9, QB16, QB19, QB17, QB17, and QB29 by weekly output since Week 8.

1b. In this span, he averaged just 240.7 passing yards per game (6.5 YPA) and had a 12:8 TD-to-INT ratio.

2. Chiefs receivers haven’t done much to help their quarterback. Rashee Rice is a baller and Travis Kelce is a legend, but Kansas City has accounted for the most dropped passing yardage (386) in a landslide. The next closest QB in dropped yards is, coincidentally, Tua Tagovailoa (286).

2b. In totality, Chiefs pass catchers dropped 6.2% of Mahomes’ passes this season. That was the 2nd-highest rate – just barely behind Jets QB Zach Wilson (6.3%).

3. Miami predominantly deploys Cover-3 and Cover-6 zone. Dolphins DC Vic Fangio mixed in their 3rd-highest rate of Cover-4 usage (21%) in the Dolphins-Chiefs Week 9 meeting.

3b. Against Cover-3, Cover-4, and Cover-6 zone, Mahomes is averaging 6.8 YPA, he has an 87.9 passer rating, and a lowly 5.8-yard average depth of target.

3c. When facing man coverages, Mahomes is much more efficient. This season, he’s averaging 8.5 YPA, he has a strong 104.3 passer rating, and a much more usual 8.6-yard average depth of target.

Travis Kelce

4. Over his last eight games, Kelce is averaging just 4.9 receptions and 50.1 yards per contest. He has 1 TD in this stretch.

4b. In his first seven games of the season, Kelce was putting up 7.7 receptions and 83.3 yards per contest. He scored 4 TDs in Weeks 2-8.

5. This should be the healthiest that Kelce has been since at least after their bye in Week 11. In that game, Kelce’s 86% route share was the 2nd-highest mark in a contest this season.

Rashee Rice

6. In their last seven games of the regular season, Rice out-targeted Kelce by a wide 61 to 49 margin.

7. From Week 10 on, Rice ranks 8th among all wide receivers in receptions (47), and he’s WR15 by Half-PPR points per game (13.8).

8. Against Cover-3, Cover-4, and Cover-6 zone – Rice leads the Chiefs in targets per route (0.31), first-read target share (26.6%), and yards per route run (2.78) since Week 10.

8b. By comparison, Kelce is trailing Rice by targets (0.21) and yards gained (1.75) per route.

8c. The only problem is that Rice rarely gets targeted downfield. It makes no sense. Rice’s average depth of target against zone coverage is a pitiful 2.3 yards downfield — his aDOT spikes to 6.2 yards downfield against man-to-man.

Isiah Pacheco

9. Pacheco is running hot. Over his last four games, he’s rushed for 62/321/4 and added 19/82/1 as a receiver.

9b. Jerick McKinnon (groin – I.R.) likely won’t return for the playoffs. In three starts without McKinnon on the field, Pacheco has played on a whopping 79.7% of the Chiefs snaps, and he’s earned 5.3 targets per game on a 55% route share.

9c. In games where McKinnon is active, Pacheco’s snap rate dipped to 57%, and he saw just 3.1 T/G on a part-time 35% route share.

10. Pacheco is averaging 23.1 Half-PPR points per game in his three starts without McKinnon. However, that dips to 11.2 FPG when McKinnon is in the lineup.

10b. That is the difference between being the RB1 by fantasy points per game and the RB25.

Chiefs WRs

11. In Week 17, Marquez Valdes-Scantling was 3rd on the team in routes (64% share) followed by Justin Watson (49%) and Richie James (24%). Kadarius Toney (hip) didn’t play in that game, but Toney has not run a route on more than 39.5% of the Chiefs pass plays in a single outing all season.

Steelers at Bills


Mason Rudolph

1. In his three starts, the Steelers have leaned heavily on their ground game with a +10.6% run rate higher than expected.

1b. Just for reference, if they sustained that run rate over a full season, it would have easily led the league over the Falcons (+5.5% run rate over expected).

2. Three straight great game scripts also helped Pittsburgh lean so run-heavy. The Steelers are 71% run-heavy (!!) in the second half with Rudolph under center. They’re +10 underdogs in Buffalo.

3. When he’s been asked to pass, Rudolph has been solid. Obviously, a few long plays to George Pickens and Diontae Johnson have helped make his overall stats look better. Relatively speaking, Rudolph is the best Steelers starter by far. He’s completed +5.2% of his passes above expectation in Weeks 16-18, which was the 7th-best mark in this stretch. Rudolph is taking care of the ball with a pretty low 1.4% turnover-worthy throw rate, too. Kenny Pickett (2.5%) and especially Mitch Trubisky (7.5%) were more risky with the ball.

George Pickens and Diontae Johnson

4. In Rudolph’s three starts, Pickens (15), RB Jaylen Warren (15), and Diontae Johnson (14) have accounted for 61.9% of the Steelers targets.

5. Pickens was shut out in Week 18 against Baltimore because the Ravens schemed to take him out. It also didn’t help that Rudolph threw the ball only 20 times.

6. The Bills deploy two-high safety coverage on 59% of their opponents' pass plays (3rd-highest rate), and they roll out zone on 75% of the time.

6b. Mason Rudolph is checking the ball down a ton against two-high safety coverages as Jaylen Warren (9) and Najee Harris (4) have accounted for an unreal 43.3% of the Steelers targets when facing a two-high look.

6c. Pickens (2.03 yards per route run) has been slightly more efficient than Johnson (1.72 YPRR) this season when facing zone coverages.

Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren

7. Harris ran hard for 19/78/1 (vs. Bengals), 27/122/2 (vs. Seahawks), and 26/112/1 (vs. Ravens) in three straight great matchups against two bad run defenses and a Baltimore team resting starters. This is a polar opposite spot.

8. Despite all of their injuries, Buffalo continues to play strong run defense. Over the last 10 weeks of the season, the Bills allowed just 3.71 YPC (8th-fewest) and a 45% success rate on those carries (9th-lowest).

Pat Freiermuth

9. Crushed the Bengals in Week 11 for 9/120 receiving on 11 targets, but he’s been largely unproductive in his 11 other games (23/168/2 receiving on 36 targets).


Josh Allen

1. Allen polished off another great fantasy season with top-12 weekly finishes among QBs in 14-of-17 games, and 11 of those performances were top-6 scores.

2. Allen scored a career-high 15 rushing TDs, and the majority of those scores came in the back half of the season. In the Bills final seven games, Allen averaged 9.0 carries and 39.7 yards per contest, and he scored 8 TDs on the ground.

2b. In their last seven games, Allen led James Cook in carries (13 to 9) and TDs (7 to 0) on runs inside-the-10 (red-zone).

3. Under new OC Joe Brady, the Bills have morphed into a slightly run-heavy offense with a -2.2% pass rate under expectation (8th-lowest) since Week 11. This is a massive, philosophical change.

3b. Under old OC Ken Dorsey, Buffalo was the 5th-most pass-heavy offense (+7.5%).

Stefon Diggs

4. Diggs and Allen have just missed on a few huge chunk plays in recent weeks. Still, Diggs is going through one of the toughest stretches of his career with just 4.9 receptions and 45 yards per contest since the OC change to Joe Brady in Week 11.

5. Pittsburgh is playing single-high safety coverage on 64% of their opponents' dropbacks over the final 10 weeks of the season.

6. Against single-high safety looks, Diggs has dominated targets with a strong 37.4% first-read target share. The next closest teammate is Dalton Kincaid (16.8% FR share).

James Cook

7. Cook is averaging 16.7 carries per game under new OC Brady – which is way up from 12 carries/game in Weeks 1-11.

7b. However, Cook’s TD upside is dramatically capped by Josh Allen’s heavy involvement in the red-zone. And, his role as a receiver has dried up in three straight games (4/12 receiving on seven targets).

Dalton Kincaid

8. After being phased out of the offense in Weeks 15-16, Kincaid has surged back to life with 7 and 8 targets in his last two games.

8b. In Weeks 17-18, Kincaid tied Diggs for the team lead in targets (15), and the rookie tight end led the Bills in receiving (171).

8c. Kincaid ran 56 routes, while Dawson Knox ran just 24 in the final two weeks of the season.

Khalil Shakir

9. With Gabe Davis (knee) likely out, Khalil Shakir will play a full-time role again. Last week, he set a season-high in route share at 82%.

10. Shakir is deserving of a much larger role even when Davis is able to return. In the 7 games where he’s played more than 65% of the snaps this season, Khalil Shakir has turned his 31 targets into a strong 27/479/1 receiving.

10b. Shakir actually leads the Bills in yards per route run (2.35) in his starts.

10c. Pittsburgh is allowing 2.05 yards per route run to slot receivers (2nd-most). Shakir lines up in the slot on over 70% of his routes.

Packers at Cowboys

Green Bay

Jordan Love

1. Jordan Love closed his season on a tear. He finished as a top-12 scoring fantasy football QB in eight of his last 9 games.

1b. After a rough midseason stretch, Love’s passing has really taken off. Since Week 10, he’s completed 68% of his throws for 7.7 YPA and a stellar 20:3 TD-to-INT ratio. He’s only taken 12 sacks in his last eight games, too.

1c. In this span, Love (0.56) trails only Prescott (0.59), Hurts (0.60), Jackson (0.67), Allen (0.67), and Purdy (0.68) in fantasy points scored per dropback.

2. Love’s +4.6% completion rate above expectation ranks 6th-best since Week 10.

3. Green Bay has done an excellent job at keeping Love upright, but that’ll obviously be challenged against a Dallas front seven that leads the league in pressure rate forced (40.4%).

Jayden Reed

4. Over his final eight games of the season, Jayden Reed was fantasy’s WR10 by half-PPR points per game (14.8).

5. In his last four games played, Reed has earned an absurd 30 targets on just 83 routes. He’s absolutely shredding right now. Reed has turned those 30 looks into 24/280/3 receiving (3.37 YPRR).

6. Reed is on fire, but this is a rough matchup here. Dallas held opposing slot receivers to just 56.9 yards per game during the regular season (4th-fewest). Reed lined up in the slot on 69% of his routes in his last four games.

Christian Watson, Dontayvion Wicks, Bo Melton, and Romeo Doubs

7. Watson has missed five straight games with yet another hamstring issue that he can’t get right. If he’s able to go, I expect that he’ll be limited to 40-50% of the snaps.

8. Dontayvion Wicks (14/178/2 receiving in the last 3 games) and Bo Melton (12/174/1 — last 3) have both stepped up in larger roles when called upon, and both will run the majority of their routes lined up on the perimeter against Dallas. Cowboys stud CB Stephon Gilmore (shoulder) is questionable.

9. Romeo Doubs (chest) left Week 18 early. He’s been held under 40 yards in 12-of-16 games.

Tucker Kraft and Luke Musgrave

10. Last week, Luke Musgrave returned to the field for the first time since suffering a kidney laceration. Kraft got the start and ran 25 routes to Musgrave’s six in Week 18.

10b. Kraft has turned his 25 targets into 21/260/1 over his last five games.

Aaron Jones

11. Aaron Jones is most definitely not washed after dealing with midseason hamstring/knee injuries. In his last four games, Jones has taken his 76 carries for 411 yards (5.4 YPC) and has shown his usual burst.

11b. Last week, Jones played on a season-high 82% of the Packers snaps with AJ Dillon (neck) sidelined.

12. Dallas can be cracked on the ground. Over their final 10 games, the Cowboys allowed 4.1 YPC and a league-high 51.6% success rate on those carries.


Dak Prescott

1. Since Week 6, the Cowboys (+8.0%) trail only the Chiefs (+9.7%) in pass rate over expectation.

1b. Dallas has not posted a pass rate below expectation in 12 straight games.

2. Dak is tied with Josh Allen for the lead among QBs in fantasy points per game (24.2) in this span. Prescott also leads the league in passing yards per game (287.9), TD-to-INT ratio (31:5), and EPA per play (0.30).

CeeDee Lamb

3. Since Week 6, Lamb leads the league in receiving with 108/1391/11 (and 11/92/2 rushing) in his last 12 games.

3b. Lamb’s 23.4 Half-PPR points per game easily leads all WRs in this span over Tyreek Hill (18.4 FPG). That’s scorched earth.

4. Packers CB Jaire Alexander has only made six starts this season. However, when he’s available, Green Bay has rolled out zone coverage on 79% of their opponents pass plays. After rolling his ankle in practice on Thursday, Alexander is questionable.

4b. Lamb is slightly less explosive when facing zone coverage. Dak Prescott and Lamb are just unstoppable when they get man-to-man. Lamb is averaging an unreal 4.68 yards per route run when facing man coverages, but his efficiency dips to 2.17 YPPR when facing zones.

Brandin Cooks

5. Cooks simply has massive home/road splits this season. In Dallas, Cooks is averaging 4.4 receptions and 66.1 yards per game compared to just 2.6 R/G and 21.6 YPG on the road.

Jake Ferguson

6. The Packers predominantly play Cover-3 zone (46%) when CB Jaire Alexander is active.

6b. Ferguson owns a lowly 9% target share against Cover-3. That spikes to 18% against all other coverages.

Tony Pollard

7. Over his final six games of the season, Pollard turned his 92 carries into 336 yards (3.65 YPC) and 2 TDs. He added 16/78/0 as a receiver.

8. Pollard averaged 12.9 Half-PPR points per game in wins (RB18), but just 8.3 FPG (RB41) in losses.

9. Green Bay can be run on. Over the final 10 games, the Packers allowed 4.35 YPC (8th-most).

Rams at Lions

Los Angeles

Matthew Stafford

1. Closed the season white hot. Over his final six games of the season, Stafford has completed 67.5% of his passes for 8.0 YPA and a 15:3 TD-to-INT ratio.

1b. After returning from a thumb injury, Stafford averaged 20.8 fantasy points per game (QB6 in span) from Weeks 12-18.

2. This is a great matchup for Stafford’s return to Detroit. Over the final 10 weeks of the season, the Lions allowed a league-high 291.7 passing yards per game and 8.55 YPA.

Kyren Williams

3. In 12 starts, Williams finished out the season as the RB2 by fantasy points per game (20.1 Half-PPR) behind CMC (22.6).

3b. There was a 3-point scoring gap between RB2 Kyren Williams and RB3 Raheem Mostert (17.1 FPG).

4. Since returning from a midseason ankle injury, Williams averaged 114.7 rushing yards and 21.8 carries per start over his final six games.

4b. Detroit is playing stout run defense to put a damper on things for the Rams ground game. Over the final 10 weeks of the season, Detroit gave up just 3.36 YPC (4th-fewest).

Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp

5. In their 11 full games together (with Matthew Stafford under center), Nacua leads Kupp in targets (93 to 86) by a slim margin. Nacua has turned his looks into 59/912/4 receiving (2.75 YPRR), and Kupp has turned his 86 targets into 57/689/5 (2.10 YPRR).

5b. Nacua lines up outside on 70% of his routes, and Kupp is predominantly in the slot (62% of routes). This is a strong spot for both receivers.

5c. Over the final 10 weeks of the regular season, the Lions gave up +7.9 schedule adjusted FPG to opposing outside receivers (2nd-most) and +3.2 adjusted FPG to slot wideouts (4th-most).

Demarcus Robinson

6. Robinson emerged as the Rams third target over Tutu Atwell and Tyler Higbee to close out the regular season. In his last five games with Stafford, Robinson is averaging 4.2 receptions and 63.8 yards per game (with 4 TDs).

6b. In their last five games, Kupp leads the Rams in first-read targets (28.7%) followed by Nacua (25.6%) and Robinson (21.7%).


Jared Goff

1. As always, we’re really high on Goff when he’s at home and favored. Over the last two seasons, Goff is averaging 295.3 passing yards and 2.6 passing TDs per game (8.3 YPA) when he’s at home and the Lions are the favorite to win.

1b. In games on the road or as an underdog, Goff averages just 248.6 passing yards and 1.3 passing TDs per game (7.2 YPA).

2. The Rams allowed +3.6 schedule-adjusted FPG above average (4th-most) and 260.3 passing yards per game (6th-most) to opposing quarterbacks over the final 10 weeks of the season.

Amon-Ra St. Brown

3. He ended the final month of the season on an absolute tear with 32/452/4 receiving (on 41 targets) in Weeks 15-18.

3b. St. Brown has earned 37.1% of the Lions' first-read targets in the Lions’ final four games, and that’s followed by Sam LaPorta (18%), Jameson Williams (17%), and Josh Reynolds (13%).

4. The Rams were destroyed for 40.0 fantasy points per game (Half-PPR) by WRs in the final five weeks of the season… and that was 2nd-most only to the Lions (41.5).

5. Los Angeles predominantly plays zone coverage (76% of opponents dropbacks – last 10 weeks). Amon-Ra St. Brown is absolutely shredding zones to the tune of 3.24 yards per route run compared to 1.96 YPR against man coverages.

Jameson Williams and Josh Reynolds

6. Unfortunately, Sam LaPorta (knee) is likely out for the Wild Card round. Jameson Williams missed Week 18 with an ankle injury, but he returned to a full practice, and he’s off of the injury report. Williams was starting to get more involved with 16 targets (11/159 receiving) in his final three games, and I expect he’ll set a season-high in snaps here. Reynolds has not topped 50 yards since Week 6.

Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery

7. In their last nine games together, Gibbs is out-scoring Montgomery by 15.0 to 13.0 FPG (Half-PPR). Montgomery has the slight lead in early-down carries, but that doesn’t matter too much because Gibbs has run a route on 51% of the pass plays (38 targets) since Week 10. Montgomery only runs a route on 23% of Detroit’s pass downs.

7b. Gibbs has made major inroads in terms of red-zone usage. This is rational coaching at its finest. Montgomery is a great short-yardage back, but Gibbs’ explosiveness and quickness in short-areas can’t be ignored. In their last nine games, Gibbs and Montgomery have split carries right down the middle (15 apiece) and Gibbs has out-snapped Montgomery (by a 36 to 20 margin) inside-the-10.

Eagles at Buccaneers


Jalen Hurts

1. Hurts got there for fantasy thanks in large part to The Push. This passing offense has obviously left a lot to be desired. Since their bye week, Hurts finished the final eight games of the season with a 60.9% completion rate for just 6.5 YPA and a middling 8:7 TD-to-INT ratio.

2. This is true for every quarterback to a certain extent, but Jalen Hurts has been really bad when pressured this season. When the defense gets home with pressure, Hurts has completed just 44% of his passes for a lowly 6.2 YPA.

2b. When he’s kept clean, Hurts’ completion rate spikes to 76%, and he’s efficient with 7.6 yards per attempt.

2c. Over the final 10 weeks, the Buccaneers generated pressure on a strong 39% of their opponents' dropbacks (4th-best) thanks in large part to HC Todd Bowles dialing up a bunch of blitz packages.

2d. Only Minnesota (53%) blitzed more often than Tampa Bay (45%) over the last 10 weeks of the season.

A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith

3. Brown (knee) and Smith (ankle) are both dealing with injuries. Smith didn’t practice or play last week — but he returned to a full practice on Thursday. Luckily, Brown’s injury isn’t believed to be serious. He didn’t practice Thursday.

4. In 9 games before their bye, A.J. Brown was tracking towards a potential WR1 overall finish with Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb. In this span, he averaged 7.4 receptions and 111.7 yards per game with 6 TDs.

4b. In the 7 games after their bye, Brown averaged just 5.4 receptions and 63.1 yards per game (1 TD).

5. If the Eagles receivers can play, this is clearly an awesome get-right spot. Tampa Bay is giving up 127.8 yards per game to opposing outside receivers (3rd-most).

6. Over the last two seasons, DeVonta Smith is averaging 7.2 targets, 61.6 yards, and 11.2 fantasy points on a per-game basis in 25 starts with Dallas Goedert.

6b. In games without Goedert active, DeVonta Smith averages 8.8 targets, 90.1 yards, and 15.2 fantasy points per game (8 starts).

Dallas Goedert

7. In his last 12 games, Goedert is averaging 4.8 receptions and 49 yards per start. Goedert has posted more than 10 FP just four times in this span, and 3 of those games were when he scored a TD.

7b. Tampa Bay was hammered by tight ends for 37/400/4 receiving (on 58 targets) over the final five weeks of the season.

D’Andre Swift

8. Swift and the Eagles run game started to show signs of life (51/227/1 rushing, 4.5 YPC) in his last three games against weaker run defenses (vs. Seahawks, Giants, and Cardinals).

8b. At their best, Philadelphia’s offensive line can maul anyone. Swift cracked the Bucs for 16/130 rushing back in Week 3. The Buccaneers gave up 3.60 YPC (7th-fewest) and a 45% success rate (8th-lowest) in the final 10 weeks of the season.

9. His complete lack of involvement in the passing game is a huge problem for Swift in fantasy. Over his last six games, Swift tallied just 6 receptions for 17 yards on a pathetic 11 targets. This is after Swift was averaging 3.6 receptions per start across Weeks 2-11.

Tampa Bay

Baker Mayfield

1. Playing through a ribs injury, Mayfield had one of his worst games of the season in Week 18’s ugly 9-0 victory over Carolina. He threw for a season-low 137 yards (4.3 YPA) vs. Panthers.

1b. Mayfield has an extra day to get healthy for Monday night. If he’s closer to full health this week – this is an obviously great matchup. The Eagles spent the final two months of the season getting picked apart. Over the last 10 weeks, Philadelphia allowed 268.2 passing yards per game (4th-most) and a 19:5 TD-to-INT ratio.

1c. Since Week 10, only Houston (+4.7) and Washington (+4.5) allowed more schedule-adjusted fantasy points per game to opposing QBs than Philadelphia (+3.9).

Mike Evans and Chris Godwin

2. Evans delivered yet another incredible season with a WR8 finish by FPG (14.3 Half-PPR).

2b. Mike Evans has finished as a top-15 scoring WR by points per game in six straight seasons.

3. A little over a month ago, the Buccaneers remembered that Chris Godwin is awesome, too. In their last five games, Godwin saw more targets than Evans (46 to 31).

3b. As a result, Godwin went off in Weeks 14-18 for 30/418/1 receiving (2.79 YPRR).

3c. Evans had 18/243/3 receiving (1.57 YPRR).

4. The Eagles are getting cleaned out for 22.8 fantasy points per game to opposing outside wide receivers (3rd-most), and no secondary is allowing more FPG to slot wideouts (18.7).

Rachaad White

5. White closed out the fantasy season as the RB13 by fantasy points per game (14.1) thanks in large part to his bell cow role. White (79%) trailed only Kyren Williams (83%), CMC (80%), and Saquon Barkley (80%) in snap rate.

5b. The Eagles run defense completely collapsed in the final 10 weeks of the season. In this span, Philadelphia gave up 117 rushing yards per game (7th-most) and a 53.1% success rate (2nd-highest) on the ground.

Trey Palmer

6. Palmer has emerged as the Buccaneers' #3 option over the final three weeks, with 10/136/1 receiving on 17 targets. TE Cade Otton plays every snap, but rarely makes an impact.

Graham Barfield blends data and film together to create some of the most unique content in the fantasy football industry. Barfield is FantasyPoints’ Director of Analytics and formerly worked for the NFL Network, Fantasy Guru, and Rotoworld.