2023 Week 7 DFS Study Hall

DFS research can be tough. We may not always know what to look for, or where to look for it.

But this article helps solve that problem – by providing some early-week research to give readers solid footing for the upcoming Week 7 DFS slate.

Atlanta Falcons (+2.5) @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (O/U: 38.5)

Trends:

• Desmond Ridder has three games with 22.0 or more DraftKings points. Those three games were Atlanta’s top three games by pass rate over expectation (PROE). This week, they face Tampa Bay – who has allowed the highest defensive PROE in the league (+7.9%).

• Bijan Robinson is 18th among RBs in XFP/G since Week 3 (14.5). Don’t fret, as he’s still 8th in snap share (73%), 2nd in route share (64%), and 6th in target share (14%) over that stretch. Big games will come.

• Atlanta has only led for 56 offensive snaps this year. But Tyler Allgeier has earned a 54% snap share and 51% of backfield XFP when Atlanta leads, compared to a 35% snap share and 33% of backfield XFP when Atlanta is tied or trailing.

• Drake London hasn’t seen fewer than six targets in a game since Week 1. Over the last five weeks, London ranks 9th in targets per game (8.4), 13th in receiving yards per game (65.8), and 14th in XFP/G (14.8) among slate-eligible WRs. That presents clear value relative to his WR23 DraftKings salary.

• Kyle Pitts (13.2 XFP/G) is the NFL’s TE2 by usage since Week 3. Jonnu Smith (10.4 XFP/G) is the TE9.

• Among slate-eligible RBs, Rachaad White is 4th in snap share (78%), 3rd in route share (61%), 11th in targets per game (3.4), and 10th in XFP/G (13.1). He’s the RB20 by DraftKings salary ($5,100).

Matchups:

• Jonnu Smith has only scored 1% of his fantasy points against man coverage. But this looks like a solid matchup for him, as Washington runs Zone coverage at the league’s 8th-highest rate.

• Atlanta is the 2nd-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing outside WRs (-9.9 FPG), but a largely neutral matchup for opposing slot WRs (-1.1 FPG). A good spot for Chris Godwin.

• Tampa Bay is the 4th-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (-3.5 FPG).

Washington Commanders (-2.0) @ New York Giants (O/U: 39.5)

Trends:

• Sam Howell (265) has 12 more dropbacks than the next-closest QB (Matthew Stafford). Howell is on pace for 96 sacks this year. The all-time record for sacks in a season is 76 (2002 David Carr).

• The Commanders are 3-3. Brian Robinson has averaged 18.7 FPG (RB7) in their three wins, but just 9.5 FPG (RB33) in their three losses. The Commanders’ implied win probability this week is 56%.

• Feel free to stack Robinson with the Commanders D/ST. The duo boasts a +0.22 correlation.

• Curtis Samuel (3.3 XFP/G and a 21% target share) is seeing the best usage of any Washington pass catcher in the red zone. Washington averages the 11th-most red zone drives per game (3.5).

• Saquon Barkley was back to his usual workload, earning an 80% snap share and 23.9 XFP in Week 6 – the best workload of any RB. He averages +8.1 more FPG in wins (21.2 FPG) than losses (13.1), and offers a solid correlation (+0.19) with the Giants defense.

Matchups:

• The Giants blitz at a top-10 rate, and run-man coverage at a top-5 rate. Terry McLaurin leads Washington in XFP per route against the blitz (0.43) and against man coverage (0.51). Against man coverage, specifically, McLaurin has a 51% air yards share and a 26% target share.

• Darren Waller (5.5 XFP/G) and Wan’Dale Robinson (4.5 XFP/G) both see solid usage against two-high defenses. That makes sense, as two-high defenses force shorter throws. Washington runs two-high at the league’s 3rd-highest rate (61%).

• Washington is the 8th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (+2.9 FPG) and the 2nd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing WRs (+11.0 FPG). A good on-paper matchup for the Giants' passing attack.

• The Giants are the single-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs through the air (-6.6 receiving FPG), but the 8th-softest matchup for RBs on the ground (+2.6 rushing FPG). Washington should lean into Brian Robinson as a result.

Las Vegas Raiders (-4.0) @ Chicago Bears (O/U: 37.5)

Trends:

• Josh Jacobs averages 23.8 FPG (RB3) in wins, but just 14.6 FPG (RB16) in losses since the start of last season. The Raiders' implied win probability this week is 61%.

• Jimmy Garoppolo (back) looks very questionable this week. If he sits, I wouldn’t consider any Raiders WRs as playable outside of Davante Adams. Adams had 25.4 XFP in Week 4 with Aiden O’Connell under center (the 11th-best workload of any WR in any game this season). And Adams averaged 23.3 FPG in his two games last season with Jarrett Stidham.

• If Garoppolo can play, Jakobi Meyers becomes one of the best values of the slate. He averages 20.6 XFP/G in his four games with a healthy Garoppolo – which would be the 4th-best usage of any pass catcher over the full season.

• Michael Mayer was locked into a TE committee with Austin Hooper in the first five weeks of the season, earning just 32% of routes and a 3% target share.

• But Week 6 saw a notable shift in how the Raiders use their TEs. Mayer ran a route on 67% of the team’s dropbacks and earned a 21% target share – with his 6 targets out-pacing Davante Adams (5). Mayer is $2,700 (TE23) on DraftKings this week.

• Justin Fields has averaged 5.5 designed runs per game over his last two games. He averaged just 2.3 designed rushes per game in his first four games. Fields averaged 6.8 designed runs per game from Week 7 to Week 18 last year, when he averaged 25.6 FPG.

• Fields ranks 7th in fantasy points per dropback on play-action passes (0.63). The Bears play action rate has jumped from 19% in Weeks 1 through 3, to 26% (12th-highest) over the last three weeks. Unfortunately, Fields (thumb) looks very doubtful this week. But I’d be very optimistic about his fantasy prospects when he returns.

• Roschon Johnson (concussion) could return this week. He was active ahead of D’Onta Foreman (who was a healthy scratch) in Weeks 2 through 5, and earned 84% of non-Khalil Herbert backfield XFP.

Matchups:

• The Chicago defense is the single-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs through the air (+7.9 receiving FPG), and the 6th-softest matchup for opposing QBs (+3.3 FPg). They’ve allowed the league’s 5th-highest PROE (+5.5%). Great news for the Raiders’ passing attack and Josh Jacobs – who has the most targets (33) of any RB.

• The Raiders are the 6th-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing WRs (-6.3 FPG). Not that we would be playing any of these Bears’ pass catchers without a healthy Justin Fields.

Buffalo Bills (-8.5) @ New England Patriots (O/U: 45.5)

Trends:

• Josh Allen averages 29.3 DraftKings FPG as a favorite of 5.0 or more points against his division (15 instances). He’s never scored less than 20.0 DraftKings points in any of those games.

• Damien Harris (concussion/neck) is likely out this week. His workload would presumably go to Latavius Murray ($4,400). Murray and Harris average 10.8 XFP/G combined (James Cook averages 11.5 XFP/G, for reference), and have claimed 70% of backfield touches inside the 10, and 79% of backfield touches at the goal line. Murray has legit multi-TD upside in this potential blowout.

• Stefon Diggs averages 22.2 FPG against New England but 19.2 FPG against all other teams since joining the Bills.

• Rhamondre Stevenson has claimed 57% of backfield XFP over the last three weeks (11.6 XFP/G). It’s difficult to argue he’s in play at $5,600 when the split with Ezekiel Elliott is so tight.

• Kendrick Bourne is the slate’s 3rd-best value by XFP per $ of salary (3.11X). Bourne’s best game by usage (21.6 XFP) was Week 6 – the only week New England was without JuJu Smith-Schuster.

Matchups:

• Josh Allen (0.81) averages the 3rd-most fantasy points per dropback against man coverage. The Patriots run man coverage at a top-3 rate (36%). Stefon Diggs ranks 6th in fantasy points per route against man (0.78).

• Buffalo is the single-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (-5.8 FPG), and a bottom-5 matchup for TEs (-3.0 FPG).

• New England is the 7th-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (-3.1 FPG), and a bottom-3 matchup for opposing RBs (-2.2 FPG).

Cleveland Browns (-2.5) @ Indianapolis Colts (O/U: 39.0)

Trends:

• I noted last week that no QB throws to their first read more than PJ Walker (82% first-read rate throw rate in 2022). What did we see in Week 6? Walker posted the 10th-highest first-read target rate (72%), and Amari Cooper earned his 2nd-highest target total (8) of the season.

• Jerome Ford hasn’t played a red zone snap since Week 3. That said, he’s been dramatically better than Kareem Hunt in every efficiency metric and played on a season-high 60% of the team’s rushing snaps last week. Big games will come for Ford, but it may take some time.

• Gardner Minshew is averaging 49.5 pass attempts per start. That’s dramatically higher than the next-closest QB (Kirk Cousins, 39.2 pass attempts per start).

• We could argue that the Colts’ pass volume with Minshew is unsustainable. One of Minshew’s starts was an overtime win, and another was a blowout loss – scripts conducive to high-volume through the air. That said, Indy’s PROE in those games was +4.2%, which is just ahead of Jacksonville for the 10th-highest mark over the full season.

• In Minshew’s two starts, Michael Pittman is averaging 18.4 XFP/G, and Josh Downs is averaging 19.0 XFP/G. I’m not sure that’s very relevant in the brutal matchup this week, but it’s an important note going forward – both players have seen a usage bump in Minshew’s starts.

• Jonathan Taylor (16.1 XFP) finally saw better usage than Zack Moss (15.6 XFP) in Week 6. Taylor had the Colts’ best play of the day – a 40-yard reception. His playing time should only move up from here. At $6,500 on DraftKings, he’s the cheapest he’s been since Week 5 of 2021.

Matchups:

• By schedule-adjusted FPG allowed, the Browns are the 5th-toughest matchup for QBs (-3.4 FPG), the 8th-toughest for RBs (-3.4 FPG), and the single-toughest for WRs (-15.6 FPG). This is the NFL’s best defense, and a truly brutal matchup for fantasy purposes.

• The Colts are the 5th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (+3.8 FPG), and the 7th-softest for opposing outside WRs (+7.0 FPG). A good spot for Amari Cooper.

Detroit Lions (+3.0) @ Baltimore Ravens (O/U: 42.0)

Trends:

• Jared Goff has played 17 road games since joining the Lions. He’s scored more than 20.0 DraftKings points in three of those games (18%).

• This backfield is a mess. Jahmyr Gibbs (hamstring) is back at practice, David Montgomery is expected to miss a few weeks, and now Craig Reynolds is dealing with multiple minor injuries that caused him to miss Wednesday's practice.

• Jameson Williams’ route share fell from 43% in Week 5 to 19% in Week 6. That’s a bit concerning, but he did have a 45-yard TD. Williams provides this offense with a vertical dimension that no other Lion can match. He’s a viable flier at $3,800 on DraftKings this week, but he’s going to be an awesome fantasy asset if he can get close to a full-time route share.

• Sam LaPorta led the Lions with a 35% air yards share in Week 6. His 18.0 XFP in Week 6 was the 9th-best workload by a TE this season.

• Lamar Jackson has an 86.2 PFF passing grade this season – the best single-season passing grade of his career.

• Baltimore has been throwing more. They had the 7th-lowest PROE last season (-3.7%), but that’s jumped to 12th-highest this season (+2.4%).

• Zay Flowers’ role (12.5 aDOT since Week 4) is more downfield than many realize. If we exclude designed targets, he still has about as many first-read targets (13) as Mark Andrews (14) over that stretch. And Flowers leads the team in usage (14.7 XFP/G) over that stretch.

Matchups:

• The Lions are the league’s No. 4 pass funnel, allowing a +6.2% PROE. That’s good news for Lamar Jackson’s passing volume in this matchup.

• Detroit is the single-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs (-8.1 FPG), but the 2nd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing slot WRs (+5.6 FPG). A sneaky-good matchup for Nelson Agholor, who has run 62% of his routes from the slot over the last three weeks.

• Baltimore is the 2nd-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (-4.1 FPG), and the single-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing TEs (-3.9 FPG).

Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.0) @ Los Angeles Rams (O/U: 44.0)

Trends:

• Kenny Pickett has 18 NFL games under his belt. He’s never scored more than 19.2 DraftKings points in any contest. Desmond Ridder has scored more than 19.2 DK points in three of his 10 career starts.

• Pickett is dead last (of 35 qualifiers) in completion percentage over expectation (-9.2%). He’s the 2nd-worst QB by catchable target% (69%).

• George Pickens is 20th among pass catchers in XFP/G since Week 2 (15.4). But if we exclude uncatchable targets, he falls to 37th (10.2 XFP/G). His usage isn’t nearly as good as it appears on the surface because of how bad Kenny Pickett is.

• Diontae Johnson is back at practice. He could play this week.

• Matthew Stafford averages 21.6 FPG as a favorite, compared to 16.7 FPG as an underdog since joining Los Angeles.

• I expect a gross backfield split between Royce Freeman, Zach Evans, and Darrell Henderson this week. But Evans (who is just $4,000 on DraftKings), has a chance to be a workhorse if he isn’t awful. Brett Whitefield described Evans as a physical runner with “great burst and acceleration” who has “basically no skills in the pass game.

• Puka Nacua has averaged a 30% target share and 17.0 XFP/G since Cooper Kupp rejoined the team in Week 5. Over the full season, a 30% target share would rank 5th-best among all players, while 17.0 XFP/G would best fantasy studs like Travis Kelce and Amon-Ra St. Brown.

Matchups

• Cooper Kupp is 6th in YPRR against man coverage (4.11). The Steelers run man coverage at the league’s 3rd-highest rate (36%).

• The Steelers are the 2nd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing outside WRs (+10.5 FPG), where Puka Nacua runs 65% of his routes. Pittsburgh has also given up the highest target share (51%), 5th-most receiving YPG (147.2), and the 5th-most end zone targets to opposing outside WRs.

• The Rams are the single-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing outside WRs (-10.4 FPG), but the 2nd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for TEs (+5.7 FPG). Pat Freiermuth (hamstring) is a solid play if he can suit up.

Arizona Cardinals (+7.5) @ Seattle Seahawks (O/U: 44.5)

Trends:

• Based on per-game usage (XFP/G) relative to salary, Zach Ertz (3.65X) and Marquise Brown (3.22X) are the top 2 flex-eligible values of the slate.

• Brown is a great value play. But Ertz isn’t viable. Ertz’ route share fell to 50% in Week 6 (after exceeding 70% in every game this season), and Trey McBride (8.1 XFP) led Cardinals TEs in usage in Week 6.

• That means McBride ($2,600) could be a sneaky DFS value this week – but chances are this duo splits routes and usage again like we saw in Week 6.

• Ken Walker averages 19.3 FPG in wins of 5.0 points or more, compared to 13.6 FPG outside that split.

• Walker’s two highest snap shares of the season (76% and 71%) have come in the last two weeks. He earned 79% of backfield XFP in Week 6 – a season-high.

• Walker is averaging 8.1 XFPG inside the red zone, giving him the 5th-best red zone workload of any RB.

• Week 6 was Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s first game with an aDOT over 6.0 (7.6). That’s likely because he took over DK Metcalf’s downfield role after he briefly left the game with a hip injury, but it’s worth keeping an eye on for future weeks.

Matchups:

• Tyler Lockett (8.9 XFP/G, 0.50 XFP/route) has been Seattle’s go-to receiver against two-high coverage. Arizona runs two-high at the league’s highest rate (63%).

• Seattle is the 7th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (+3.1 FPG), and the single-softest matchup for opposing slot WRs (+7.4 FPG). Rondale Moore runs 70% of his routes from the slot, but I’m not optimistic about his upside here, given his 2.8 aDOT.

• Arizona is the 2nd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (+6.5 FPG), the 3rd-softest for RBs (+7.3 FPG), and the 8th-softest for outside WRs (+8.4 FPG). A great matchup for the Seattle offense.

Los Angeles Chargers (+5.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (O/U: 48.0)

Trends:

• Austin Ekeler has played in three games over the last two seasons without Mike Williams but with a healthy Keenan Allen. He averages 22.2 XFP/G and 8.7 targets per game in those contests. That’s 12% better usage than Ekeler earned in 2022, when he led RBs in XFP/G. And 8.7 targets per game would rank ahead of Jakobi Meyers this season.

• Josh Palmer is averaging 14.9 XFP/G over the last two seasons in his four games with a healthy Keenan Allen, but without Mike Williams. That workload makes Palmer the 4th-best usage-based DraftKings value this week (3.1X). He’s a great play.

• Keenan Allen averaged 21.3 XFP/G in his four games without Williams over the last two years. That would have led all WRs (by +1.3 XFP/G) last season.

• Allen has averaged 7.5 XFP/G in the red zone over his last two games. That easily leads all players over the full season.

• Donald Parham has underrated TD equity. He leads the Chargers with 5 end zone targets (13th-most among all players), and he’s averaging 3.9 XFP/G in the red zone (6th-best among all players). He’s worth a flier in large field tournaments if you make multiple Justin Herbert lineups.

• Patrick Mahomes averages 27.0 FPG in wins with a total over 48.0 (47 instances). That represents an 18% improvement on his career baseline FPG.

• Isiah Pacheco has averaged 17.4 XFP/G and 17.5 FPG since Week 3 – marks that would rank 8th-best and 10th-best among all rushers with multiple games over the full season.

• A big part of that is Pacheco’s expanded receiving role. He already has more catches (17) than he did all of last season (13). And he’s exceeded a 30% route share in four of his six games this season, a feat he accomplished only once in 2022.

• I’m losing hope for pretty much every Chiefs WR (with a slight, long-term exception for Rashee Rice). Among the Chiefs’ pass catchers, the top-5 workloads of the season (by XFP) all belong to Travis Kelce, who has played five games. No Chiefs’ WR has earned more than 11.6 XFP in a game this season.

Matchups:

• The Chargers are the single-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (+8.2 FPG), and the 4th-softest matchup for opposing WRs (+9.8 FPG).

• Kansas City is the 3rd-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (-4.0 FPG), the 3rd-toughest for opposing RBs (-4.9 FPG), and the 8th-toughest for opposing WRs (-4.7 FPG).

Green Bay Packers (-1.0) @ Denver Broncos (O/U: 45.0)

Trends:

• Jordan Love has averaged 22.9 DraftKings FPG in his three games where he’s been pressured on 22% of his dropbacks or less. That ranks 3rd-best among slate-eligible QBs over the full season. The Broncos have pressured QBs at the 8th-lowest rate this season. And Green Bay has the biggest offensive line advantage while passing of any team this week.

• Christian Watson looked fully healthy in Week 5 – earning an absurd 70% air-yard share and 50% of Green Bay’s receiving yards. And now he’s had 13 days of rest, with the Packers coming off their Week 6 bye. Let’s not forget how good he was last year…

• The Denver backfield is as gross as it gets. Last week, Jaleel McLaughlin (41% snap share), Javonte Williams (35%), and Samaje Perine (16%) all worked in.

• McLaughlin seems to be the only member of this backfield with real juice. He’s 2nd in explosive run rate (10%), 4th in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.41), and 2nd in yards after contact per attempt (5.1). No other Bronco ranks in the top 12 in any of those metrics (53 qualifiers).

• It’s difficult to be optimistic about this passing attack when Jerry Jeudy is averaging 11.0 XFP/G over the last three weeks, and Courtland Sutton is averaging 9.6 XFP/G. Marvin Mims – who is 2nd in the NFL in YPRR – has a 30% route share over that stretch.

Matchups:

• Green Bay is the 4th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs (+4.8 FPG), but the 8th-toughest for opposing outside WRs (-5.5 FPG).

• Denver is the single-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs through the air (+6.6 passing FPG), and the single-softest matchup for opposing RBs (+13.8 FPG).

• The Broncos' defense has allowed the most plays of 20 or more yards (31), the 2nd-highest passer rating on deep throws (145.0), and the most yards per target over expectation on deep throws (+10.1). The perfect matchup for Christian Watson.