2023 Week 3 DFS Study Hall

DFS research can be tough. We may not always know what to look for, or where to look for it.

But this article helps solve that problem – by providing some early-week research to give readers solid footing for the upcoming Week 3 DFS slate.

Houston Texans (+9.5) @ Jacksonville Jaguars (O/U: 44.0)

Trends:

• The 384 yards CJ Stroud threw on Sunday were the 4th-most by a rookie QB in September since 2000. Our film experts noted that he played exceptionally well in the final three quarters of the game.

• Nico Collins has averaged 18.5 XFP and 113.0 receiving YPG while earning a 41% share of the Texans’ air yards. Last year, those numbers would’ve ranked 7th-best, best, and 6th-best. If this keeps up, we need to consider Collins as a top-12 fantasy WR – but he’s priced as the WR25 ($5,300) on DraftKings this week.

• By XFP/G per $ of DraftKings salary, Nico Collins is the 9th-best value of the slate among flex players (3.49X).

• Tank Dell was a part-time player in Week 1, but Noah Brown was placed on IR ahead of Week 2. Dell finished Week 2 with a 76% route share and 21% target share, converting that into 20.2 fantasy points and 17.8 XFP. He finished with the 2nd-most first-read targets (7) on the team. It’s absurd he’s priced as the WR58 ($3,600) on DraftKings this week.

• Brett Whitefield described Dell as “a natural playmaker with the ball in his hands.”

• Houston is a run funnel; Trevor Lawrence has averaged just 13.6 FPG in his four career games against the Texans, including 9.6 FPG in his two games against Houston last season.

• Travis Etienne, on the other hand, has managed 18.7 FPG against Houston. He’s also averaged 15.3 FPG in wins of 7 points or more (7 instances).

Matchups:

• This isn’t the game to target Christian Kirk. Last season, Houston ranked as the single-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing slot WRs (-4.4 FPG).

• But it is the week to target Travis Etienne. Houston was the single-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs on the ground last year (+5.1 rushing FPG). Etienne has the 11th-most rushing attempts (250) since the start of the 2022 season.

• Jacksonville was the 6th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing slot WRs last year (+2.2 FPG). Potential plus matchup for Tank Dell.

New Orleans Saints (+1.0) @ Green Bay Packers (O/U: 43.5)

Trends:

• Chris Olave’s usage this season (17.9 XFP/G) has been 28% better than his usage last season (14.0 XFP/G).

• Rashid Shaheed is averaging 14.9 XFP/G at a DraftKings salary of $4,200. That makes him the 5th-best usage-based DFS value this week among WRs (3.55X)

• I noted last week that an unpressured dropback was worth 63% more fantasy points than a pressured dropback. Jordan Love has faced 12 pressures, the 2nd-lowest mark among QBs with two or more starts.

• Love has more opportunities to throw deep, thanks to the lack of pressure he’s faced. He ranks 7th among QBs in deep throw rate (14%).

• AJ Dillon managed just 9.1 XFP in Week 2 sans Aaron Jones. His 68% of backfield XFP, 70% snap share, and 58% route share are still encouraging numbers, though. He could be a solid DFS option in a higher-total, faster-paced game – which isn’t what he’s looking at in Week 3.

• Jayden Reed ($3,800) earned 39% of the Packers' first-read targets in Week 2, which is 22% more than his next-closest teammate.

Matchups:

• The Saints have given up just 2.5 FPG to opposing TEs this year (toughest). They were the toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing TEs last year.

• The Packers have been the 5th-toughest matchup for opposing WRs this season, allowing just 25.5 FPG. They were a bottom-5 schedule-adjusted matchup for WRs last season.

Buffalo Bills (-6.5) @ Washington Commanders (O/U: 44.5)

Trends:

• Since 2019, Josh Allen has averaged 29.8 FPG as a favorite of 5.0 points or more (21 instances). That would translate to the greatest fantasy QB season of all time.

• James Cook has earned 72% of the Bills’ backfield XFP outside of the red zone. In the red zone? Just 10%. He will need to bust some big plays to hit his ceiling.

• Dawson Knox’s usage (9.7 XFP/G) has been 23% better than Dalton Kincaid’s usage (7.9 XFP/G) through two weeks. Despite this, Knox ($3,200) is $200 cheaper on DraftKings this week. While I prefer Knox in a vacuum, we will need to monitor his status, as he hasn’t practiced yet this week due to a back injury.

• Brian Robinson has captured 75% of Washington’s backfield XFP. That said, he averages just 7.1 FPG in losses of 4 points or more. He’s never scored more than 12.0 DraftKings points in a loss.

• Terry McLaurin (0.41 fantasy points per route) was far more productive against zone coverage than Jahan Dotson (0.22) last season. The Bills have run zone coverage on 77% of their defensive dropbacks this season.

• Commanders TEs are averaging 16.5 FPG collectively – 4th best in the NFL. If Logan Thomas (concussion) sits in Week 3, both Cole Turner ($2,700) and John Bates ($2,800) would be in play as TE punt options in the largest GPPs. I’d give a slight preference to Turner, as his 67% route share led the way after Thomas was injured. But it’s obviously thin.

Matchups:

• The Bills have allowed the 3rd-fewest FPG (12.5) to opposing QBs this season. They ranked as one of the five toughest schedule-adjusted matchups for QBs last season.

• The Commanders (15.8 FPG allowed) have been the 8th-toughest matchup for opposing RBs this season. They ranked as the 5th-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup against RBs in 2022.

Los Angeles Chargers (-1.0) @ Minnesota Vikings (O/U: 54.0)

Trends:

• The game total of 54.0 is easily the highest we’ve seen all season. Expect fireworks here.

• Seven of the eight best fantasy performances of Justin Herbert’s career have come when the Chargers’ implied team total is 25.0 or higher. Their 27.5 implied team total this week is the 3rd-highest of the slate.

• Austin Ekeler has averaged 24.6 DraftKings FPG as a favorite in games with a total over 50.0 since 2021 (8 instances). That’s a 9% improvement over his 2022 baseline.

• Last week, Mike Williams ranked 7th among WRs and TEs in XFP (21.1), 3rd in air yards (163), and 4th in first-read targets (10). His volume was better than Keenan Allen's (20.8 XFP), and Williams is $1,600 cheaper this week.

• If forced to play an ancillary Chargers player, I’d lean toward Josh Palmer ($3,300). His 64% route share is 3rd-best on the team, but he’s averaged a meager 5.9 XFP/G thus far. Don’t fall for Gerald Everett ($3,800), who has a 38% route share this year (36th-best among TEs).

• In his 12 career games with a total of 52.0 or higher, Kirk Cousins has averaged a very impressive 26.0 DraftKings FPG, a mark that would’ve been 3rd-best among slate-eligible QBs last season.

• Justin Jefferson has scored over 25.0 DraftKings points in 57% of his career games with a total of 52.0 or higher.

• KJ Osborn’s 13.7 XFP/G ranks 31st among WRs, ahead of DeVonta Smith, Brandon Aiyuk, and Amon-Ra St. Brown. Nobody is talking about it, but Osborn’s volume has been great despite extremely tough target competition.

• Osborn’s usage is 38% better than Jordan Addison’s thus far, and Addison is $1,500 more expensive on DraftKings this week.

• TJ Hockenson has averaged 14.9 XFP/G as a Viking. That’s better than Chris Olave, Amari Cooper, and Deebo Samuel last season.

Matchups:

• The Chargers have allowed the highest YPRR (2.27), most YPT (11.0), 3rd-most air yards (724), and the 3rd-most end zone targets (7) to opposing pass catchers this season, on top of the most FPG (57.1) to opposing WRs.

• If that wasn’t enough, the Chargers have graded out as PFF’s 3rd-worst coverage unit (44.4 team coverage grade), and they’ve allowed the league’s highest completion percentage over expectation (CPOE) at +9.3%. And they’ve allowed the 2nd-most FPG to opposing QBs (29.7).

• Los Angeles was also the 2nd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs on the ground last year (+3.5 rushing FPG).

• Last season, Minnesota ranked as the single-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing outside WRs (+6.5 FPG), and they’ve allowed the 7th-highest target share (52%) to opposing outside WRs this season.

Tennessee Titans (+3.0) @ Cleveland Browns (O/U: 39.5)

Trends:

• The last time Ryan Tannehill scored over 25.0 fantasy points was in Week 18 of 2021. He’s never scored more than 19.4 fantasy points in a game with a total of 40.0 or less.

• Derrick Henry averages +9.3 more FPG in wins (24.5 FPG) than losses (15.2) since 2020. Tennessee’s implied win probability this week is 45%.

• Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is averaging more XFP/G (10.0) than Treylon Burks (8.2).

• Deshaun Watson has scored more than 22.0 DraftKings points in 11% of his games with a total under 42.0 (9 instances).

• Nick Chubb was injured in the 2nd quarter of the Browns Week 2 contest. He’s done for the year.

• Jerome Ford profiles as the Browns bell cow for the rest of the season. He posted a 55% snap share and earned 67% of backfield rushes in the 2nd half of the Browns’ Week 2 game. His 61 rushing yards over expected led all RBs in Week 2.

• Ford is #good. He averaged 6.1 YPC and scored 19 TDs across 214 carries in his final college season.

• By XFP, Elijah Moore has seen 92% of Amari Cooper’s volume, but he’s 82% of Cooper’s DraftKings price.

Matchups:

• Jerome Ford feels like a free square at $4,800. But he’s in a truly brutal matchup. The Titans have allowed 7.9 FPG to opposing RBs (toughest), after ranking as the 2nd-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs in 2022.

• If Tennessee has a clear weakness, it’s in pass coverage. The Titans were the single-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing WRs last year (+6.6 FPG). This year, they’ve allowed the 3rd-most FPG (53.0) to opposing WRs.

• The Browns' run defense is dramatically improved and might be the best in the NFL…

New England Patriots (-3.0) @ New York Jets (O/U: 37.0)

Trends:

• No player has more pass attempts than Mac Jones (96). His 24.1 fantasy points in Week 1 was his best fantasy game ever. But I’d be surprised if we saw Jones match the 48.0 attempts he’s averaged these last two games – in a contest against a notable run funnel defense as favorites.

• Ezekiel Elliott hasn’t notably impacted Rhamondre Stevenson’s goal line role. Rhamondre has earned 83% of red zone backfield opportunities and 100% of inside the 10 backfield opportunities through two weeks. Elliott hasn’t played a snap inside the 10, but I don’t think that will continue.

• Because of Stevenson’s receiving role, he actually averaged +1.7 more FPG in losses (15.7) than wins (14.0) since last season.

• Kendrick Bourne is averaging 18.8 XFP/G (WR8), which is more than Stefon Diggs, Ja’Marr Chase, and Chris Olave. He’s a top-3 usage-based DFS value among WRs (3.7X).

• Hunter Henry is the TE5 by XFP/G (11.5).

• Zach Wilson has thrown for over 200 yards in just 43% of his starts. Interestingly, his best-ever passing game (355 yards) and two worst passing games have come against the Patriots. He averages 173.3 passing YPG and 8.3 FPG against New England.

• Despite incredible efficiency from Breece Hall in Week 1, he earned just 6 opportunities and 40% of backfield XFP in Week 2. He’s probably unplayable until the 2nd half of the season.

Matchups:

• Last season, the Jets were the single-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing outside WRs (-10.3 FPG). They haven’t looked as dominant this season, but it’s still a brutal matchup for DeVante Parker and Kendrick Bourne.

Atlanta Falcons (+3.5) @ Detroit Lions (O/U: 46.5)

Trends:

• Desmond Ridder has attempted 13 passes of 10 or more air yards. The only player with less through two full games is Justin Fields (12).

• I thought there was a chance that the return of Cordarrelle Patterson to Atlanta’s lineup would negatively impact Bijan Robinson’s route share. That was wrong – Bijan’s receiving role is going to be one of the best in the NFL.

• Robinson has only captured 58% of Atlanta’s backfield XFP (24th-best). There is still a ton of room for his role to grow. Measured by XFP, his usage improved by about 29% in Week 2.

• Among RBs with two games played, Robinson’s +4.1 fantasy points over expectation ranks 4th-best. Among players with 10 or more touches (96 qualifiers), Robinson ranks 5th in missed tackles forced per touch, 13th in yards after contact per touch, and 13th in yards after the catch per reception. He’s just really good.

• Jared Goff has averaged 24.3 FPG (QB4 last year) at home since joining the Lions. He averages just 15.1 FPG (QB19) on the road.

• David Montgomery is dealing with a thigh bruise that could leave him sidelined in Week 3, leaving a much larger slice of the backfield pie for Jahmyr Gibbs.

• Gibbs has already averaged 11.4 XFP/G (RB32) on a snap share of 37% (RB44), so it may only take a modest bump in snaps for him to become a top fantasy RB. He’s been incredibly efficient, ranking 9th among all flex players in missed tackles forced per touch (0.39), 6th among RBs in explosive play percentage (8.7%), and 11th among RBs in YPRR (2.02).

• After Montgomery was injured, Gibbs posted a 65% snap share and 73% route share in the 4th quarter. Those are RB1 numbers if he can keep them up for a full game.

• Josh Reynolds has played 11 games over the last two seasons with a route share over 60%. He’s managed scores of 23.6, 21.1, 16.1, 15.6, and 15.2 fantasy points in five of those contests. His route share in Week 2 was 73%.

• Amon-Ra St. Brown is day-to-day with a toe injury. Among Lions WRs with at least 10 routes this season, Josh Reynolds has the highest slot route share (45%). He’s just $4,200 on DraftKings this week. Kalif Raymond ($3,400) would also be in play.

Matchups:

• The Lions were the 4th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing TEs last year (-2.9 FPG). They’ve allowed the 3rd-most FPG (18.8) to opposing TEs this year. Maybe this is the week for Kyle Pitts (just kidding).

Indianapolis Colts (+8.0) @ Baltimore Ravens (O/U: 45.0)

Trends:

• Anthony Richardson is questionable with a concussion. I think he sits. But he’s a top-5 QB for the remainder of the season whenever he returns.

• Zack Moss had a 98% snap share in Week 1, and the only snap he didn’t play was a play where Indianapolis had zero RBs on the field.

• Last season, there were only two instances of an RB earning a 98% or higher snap share, and only 20 instances of a RB earning a snap share over 90%.

• Moss is a compelling play this week, priced at just $5,500 (RB22). But he’s not a free square. He likely needs Anthony Richardson to sit to hit his ceiling.

• Moss earned just 1.0 XFP on the Colts' first two drives, both of which resulted in Anthony Richardson rushing TDs. It wasn’t until Richardson left the game with a concussion that Moss started to get fed – earning 13.8 XFP across the remainder of the game. Combined with Deon Jackson’s usage from Week 1 (18.5 XFP), we could expect ~16.2 XFP/G from Moss going forward. That presents incredible usage relative to his price, but again, I think his ceiling is dependent on Richardson’s status.

• I still have interest in deep ball specialist Alec Pierce – who is 2nd on the team with a 77% route share and is just $3,400 this week. He’s only viable if Richardson plays.

• Lamar Jackson averages 27.6 FPG as a favorite of 7 points or more since 2019 (18 instances).

• Zay Flowers aDOT jumped by 10.2 yards in Week 2 with the return of Mark Andrews. His first-read target share fell from 60% to 19%.

• A $6,000 salary for Mark Andrews is way too cheap. His average salary since Week 11 of 2021 has been $6,528 (9% more expensive), and he’s been cheaper than $6,000 in just 20% of those games.

• By XFP/G per $ of DraftKings salary, Andrews is the 6th-best TE value of the slate (2.95X).

Matchups:

• The Colts have allowed the 2nd-most FPG to opposing WRs this season (53.1). Their pass defense has been a disaster, grading out as PFF’s 4th-worst coverage unit thus far.

• The Ravens have allowed the 3rd-fewest FPG to opposing RBs this season (14.6). They’ve allowed just 5 rushing first downs this season (fewest).

Denver Broncos (+6.5) @ Miami Dolphins (O/U: 48.0)

Trends:

• Samaje Perine and Javonte Williams are in a 50/50 committee based on snap shares, but usage favors Williams – who has earned 56% of backfield XFP, compared to 30% for Perine. I don’t think either is playable in Week 3, but Williams will carve himself a bigger role as the season goes on.

• Marvin Mims ran just five routes in Week 2. He caught both of his targets for 113 yards and a TD, converting 7.7 XFP into 20.3 FPG. We can’t confidently play him until his route share gets above 50%.

• Tua Tagovailoa is the current betting favorite to win MVP. Over his last 13 healthy games, Tagovailoa has averaged 305.2 passing YPG. Patrick Mahomes averages 302.1 passing YPG across his career.

• Tyreek Hill has averaged 25.8 FPG in non-division games with a healthy Tua Tagovailoa (10 games). For perspective, 2021 Cooper Kupp averaged 25.9 FPG.

• Raheem Mostert is the RB9 by FPG (19.4), but he’s run way better than his expectation (11.1 XFP/G).

• Durham Smythe ($2,900) is the TE26 by DraftKings salary. Among all TEs, he ranks 1st in route share (86%), 9th in targets (10), 7th in first-read targets (9), and 14th in XFP/G (8.9). He’s absurdly underpriced, especially with Jaylen Waddle in the concussion protocol.

• Smythe is the TE4 by XFP/G per $ of DraftKings salary (3.06X).

Matchups:

• Miami is allowing the 4th-most FPG (28.9) to opposing RBs this season. They were a top-12 schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs last year.

• The Dolphins have allowed the 2nd-most FPG (20.5) to opposing TEs this year. They were one of the top-5 softest schedule-adjusted matchups for the position last season.

Carolina Panthers (+6.0) @ Seattle Seahawks (O/U: 42.0)

Trends:

• Bryce Young is PFF’s lowest-graded QB (40.1). But it isn’t entirely his fault. He’s faced the 4th-most pressures this season (40), and his pass catchers haven’t helped him much…

• I’m moderately interested in Miles Sanders at $5,700. He’s claimed 65% of backfield XFP (14.9 XFP/G), and ranks behind only Tony Pollard, Alexander Mattison, and Zack Moss in XFP/G per $ of DraftKings salary (2.61X)

• Jonathan Mingo ($3,400) leads Carolina in targets (13) and XFP/G (12.3). He ranks as a top-5 value by usage (XFP) per $ of DraftKings salary among WRs.

• Geno Smith has averaged 23.0 FPG as a favorite of 4.0 points or more since 2022. That mark would rank 3rd-best among slate-eligible QBs using last year's numbers.

• Kenneth Walker has thrived in these gamescripts. He averages 20.3 FPG in wins of 5 points or more since the start of last season. That ranks behind only Austin Ekeler among slate-eligible RBs using last year’s numbers.

• Walker and Smith are very negatively correlated (-0.37), but on a 4pm slate that features just three games, I do think you can stack them with the hope that Seattle rolls.

• Tyler Lockett has 14 targets on the season, and 35% of those (5 total) have come in the end zone. That’s tied for the league lead.

Matchups:

• Seattle has allowed the 4th-most FPG (50.5), 3rd-highest YPRR (2.29), and 3rd-highest yards per target over expectation (+1.7) this season.

• Seattle has also graded as PFF’s 6th-worst pass rush (58.1 team pass rush grade). Maybe, just maybe, this is the game for Bryce Young and his pass catchers.

Dallas Cowboys (-12.5) @ Arizona Cardinals (O/U: 43.5)

Trends:

• The Cowboys have the most valuable fantasy backfield in the NFL – the 36.4 XFP/G that Dallas RBs have averaged through two games is 21% better than the next-closest backfield.

• Tony Pollard has played in five games without Ezekiel Elliott since 2020. He’s scored 31.2, 33.7, 21.8, 22.2, and 19.9 fantasy points in those outings, averaging a ridiculous 25.8 FPG (equivalent to the 18th-best fantasy RB season ever).

• Pollard leads the NFL with 12 carries inside the 10 (double the next-closest player). In all of 2022, Pollard earned 12 carries inside the 10.

• Pollard is averaging 25.5 XFP/G this season – a workload that’s 53% better than Christian McCaffrey’s 2023 usage (16.7 XFP/G), and 28% better than Austin Ekeler’s 2022 usage (19.9 XFP/G).

• TLDR: Pollard’s $8,000 salary on DraftKings this week is a complete joke. He will be $9,000 or more within 6 weeks.

• CeeDee Lamb averages 14.0 FPG as a favorite of 10.0 points or more. That’s -2.0 FPG lower than his career average. Positive gamescript hasn’t benefitted his production.

• Jake Ferguson (7) has as many red zone targets as Travis Kelce and TJ Hockenson combined. By XFP/G in the red zone, Ferguson is the TE3 (8.5). Blowup games should come for Ferguson, especially in great matchups like this one (more below). That said, it’s at least a little concerning his route share this year sits at just 46%.

• James Conner ranks 7th among RBs in backfield XFP% (80%), 5th in snap share (80%), but just 17th by XFP/G (14.5), largely because Arizona can’t get into scoring range (11 team plays in the red zone, last).

• Among TEs with multiple games, Zach Ertz ranks 1st in XFP/G (17.2, 12% better than the next-closest TE), 1st in targets (18), 1st in air yards (130), and 5th in route share (79%). He’s been absurdly inefficient, averaging just 9.9 FPG – but that mark still ranks 8th-best among slate-eligible TEs.

• Ertz is priced as the TE15 ($3,500) on DraftKings. By XFP/G per $ of DraftKings salary, he’s the best value on the slate by a massive margin (4.91X).

• Ertz has 10 targets when Joshua Dobbs is under pressure. The rest of the team has 12 such targets. And Dobbs is going to face a ton of pressure this week.

Matchups:

• The Cowboys have allowed the 5th-fewest FPG (13.0) to opposing QBs this season, and the 2nd-fewest FPG (9.6) to opposing RBs. They are even tougher against WRs, allowing the fewest FPG (15.2) this season. The sample is small, but this defense is legit.

• Last season, Arizona was the 2nd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs (+4.5 FPG). They gave up 27.2 FPs to Saquon Barkley last week.

• Arizona was the single-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing TEs last season (+4.1 FPG). They’ve allowed the 10th-most FPG to the position this year (12.3).

Chicago Bears (+12.5) @ Kansas City Chiefs (47.5)

Trends:

• Justin Fields has three (3!) designed rushes this season, excluding sneaks and kneels. That’s less than WRs Kavontae Turpin (5) and Erik Ezukanma (5), and as many as Elijah Moore. Houston Texans TE Andrew Beck has two designed rush attempts.

• Fields’ recent comments do make me believe he’s going to run more, but it’s safe to say the current Bears’ coaches don’t know how to run an offense centered around Fields’ skillset.

• Patrick Mahomes has averaged 25.1 DraftKings FPG since the 2021 season. But he’s averaged 28.3 DraftKings FPG as a favorite of 10 or more points over that same sample (15 instances). Don’t fade Mahomes due to this massive spread.

• Kadarius Toney has run 27 routes this season (30% route share), but he’s been targeted 10 times. His 0.37 TPRR ranks 6th-best among WRs with at least 10 routes.

• On an 80% route share, we could loosely project Toney for 13.3 targets per game. That’s absurd, of course, but it helps emphasize just how good Toney’s role would be if he were a full-time player.

• Despite the 6th-lowest route share on the team, Toney ranks 2nd among KC pass catchers in XFP/G (9.6).

• Justin Watson has as many targets of 10 or more yards (7) as Stefon Diggs. I’m not sure that means much, but he’s worth mixing into Mahomes’ stacks at just $3,500 on DraftKings if you are playing a bunch of Chiefs lineups.
• Travis Kelce has scored over 20.0 DraftKings points in 65% of his games with an implied team total of 29.0 or higher over the last three seasons (34 instances). Kansas City has an implied team total of 30.0 this week.

Matchups:

• The Bears have allowed the 8th-most FPG (23.5) to opposing QBs this year. They ranked as one of the 12 softest schedule-adjusted matchups for QBs last season.

• Chicago has also allowed the 4th-most FPG (28.9) to opposing RBs this season. They were the 5th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs last season.