WEEK 12 THANKSGIVING POST-MORTEM
Thanksgiving did not end up how I hoped, but I did book a small profit from the day’s article. Let’s investigate.
GREEN BAY PACKERS @ DETROIT LIONS - POST-MORTEM
I was convinced that Detroit would win the first half, and so included that leg in all three tickets for this game. I perhaps should have given more consideration to this being their third game in less than two weeks, and just four days after a dramatic, comeback victory. Whatever the cause, Jared Goff turned the ball over multiple times in the first half, and Green Bay was up multiple scores by halftime.
I correlated the first-half Detroit win with an under on Goff’s passing yardage, and those were the only two legs to miss in the basic and aggressive tickets. For the scratch-off, I instead took a lower, alternative passing yardage leg for Goff rather than an overall under. That leg hit, so the scratch-off ticket for this game ended up missing just because I included Detroit to win the first half.
I’m more inclined to a lower stat line over a standard under in Same-Game Parlay tickets. It’s a cleaner sweat, certainly, and I most often choose to attack games with room for lots of upside statistical production. This also marked the first time this season I’ve included a first-half winner leg in a SGP ticket. It certainly stings that that was the lone cause of a +4148 ticket’s loss. Had I just taken Jameson Williams instead, Thanksgiving would have started off with a bang. Instead, this game ended with a loss of -1.35 units.
WASHINGTON COMMANDERS @ DALLAS COWBOYS - POST-MORTEM
Like most of the football content world, I knew Dallas would attack through the air and find success doing it. But I did not expect CeeDee Lamb to do so poorly. On the basic ticket, Lamb finished 17 yards short of 70 yards, causing the loss. He also netted just four receptions, which along with his yardage, became the only misses in the +2404 aggressive ticket and the +4203 scratch-off ticket.
I don’t have much regret here. Rather, I’m just annoyed by Lamb failing to get there. Dak Prescott completed passes to 10 different players, and Brandin Cooks was the player to produce the most yardage with a 4/72/1 statline. I was only asking for a well below-average game from Lamb this season, so I am disappointed that this game didn’t end up smashing.
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS - POST-MORTEM
Finally, the nightmare holiday took a turn for the better here. The basic ticket I recommended was a winner.
Christian McCaffrey and Brandon Aiyuk finished exactly at their receiving yardage lines that I recommended, but a win is a win. Alas, the aggressive and scratch-off tickets failed to hit due to lackluster performances from George Kittle and the entire Seattle offense.
I am happy that I believed in our projections for Geno Smith. Our Prop Finder recommended the under on his passing attempts line, and he was projected for about 20 fewer passing yards. Smith finished with seven fewer attempts than his line, and over 50 fewer yards.
For this game, I stuck to my typical recommended unit risk of 1 unit on the basic ticket, .25 units on the aggressive ticket, and .10 units on the scratch-off ticket. The winning basic ticket netted a gain of 4.61 units, which made Thanksgiving, as a whole, a positive day.
Here’s where the article results sit after the holiday:
Onward to the first-ever NFL Black Friday game.
MIAMI DOLPHINS @ NEW YORK JETS - MIA -9.5 - O/U 40.5 [FD]
Per Action Network, 74% of the bets are on Miami to cover the spread. But 52% of the money is backing New York. 72% of the bets are on the under side of the game total, with 91% of the money agreeing.
BASIC TICKET (1 UNIT)
In ten games, Raheem Mostert is averaging 69.1 rushing YPG. Much of that came with De’Von Achane along for the ride, but Achane will be absent today. Mostert has gained 60 rushing yards in six of ten games, with back-to-back 80+ yard performances. New York is allowing 101.3 rushing YPG to opposing RBs. With a bit of a pass-funnel matchup, and an important one at that, Mostert should get there if this game flow plays out as expected. We have him projected for 70 yards.
Tyreek Hill is projected for 65 receiving yards. I know that this matchup is imposing, but I’m choosing to trust in the Miami scheme and speed. Hill has finished with 50+ yards in all but one game this season, at New England. His second-lowest output, 58 yards, came at Buffalo. I could see that as a trend, on the road against divisional opponents, but while I believe the passing game will be muted compared to their high standard, I don’t think they will be completely stifled.
Jaylen Waddle projects for 70.5 receiving yards. He’s finished with 40+ yards in eight of nine games this year, falling short by five yards vs. the New York Giants. Again, I believe that Miami is simply too good against an opponent whose offense will struggle to give their defense time to rest.
Tyler Conklin projects for 33 receiving yards. He’s had at least 25 yards in six of ten games, and he’s averaging 38.1 YPG. Tom Brolley noted that Miami allows the ninth-most receiving YPG to TEs (55.5) in his Week 12 Game Hub. I think the backup QB situation will lead to lots of short-area work for Conklin.
AGGRESSIVE TICKET (.25 UNITS)
Conklin has three receptions in seven of ten games, averaging 3.5. We’re projecting him for exactly three receptions.
Garrett Wilson projects for 5.5 receptions and 56.5 receiving yards. He’s averaging 65.1 YPG and 5.7 receptions. Week 11 was the second time this season that he’s failed to clear 40 yards. I don’t think it will be pretty, but I’m hoping a negative game script will lead to enough work for Wilson to reach these modest alternate lines. Brolley noted that Miami allows the third-most receptions to WRs this season.
I’m aligning with the market on this alternate game total under, but providing some cushion with this aggressive ticket, just in case.
SCRATCH-OFF TICKET (.10 UNITS)
Breece Hall projects for exactly 40 rushing yards. But I do think that the New York game plan will be heavily focused on Hall carrying the rock. I’m sure the defense will not be afraid of a backup quarterback beating them, but volume should be on Hall’s side. Despite one of the absolute worst environments to play in, Hall is still averaging 54.4 rushing YPG. However, he’s hit 40+ yards in just four of ten games, so I’ve left this leg until the scratch-off ticket.
Good luck!
