2025 Fantasy Football Projections: Team Notes

The Fantasy Points season-long fantasy football projections process is a long one. Although I had been working on them for months, I couldn’t finalize the initial version until after the 2025 NFL Draft.

Well, the Draft has come and gone, the Fantasy Points team has provided its input on the projections, and the first 2025 projections are now live on the site.

While making the projections, I must examine team, coach, and player tendencies, utilizing the Fantasy Points Data Suite to create the most accurate forecast possible. I’ve compiled some of the most interesting things I learned about each team from my research, in the form of raw notes.

Arizona Cardinals

• The Cardinals rushing attack ranked 3rd in Yards Before Contact per Attempt (YBCO/Att) and 2nd in Yards per Carry (YPC)

• Kyler Murray had only an 8.9% designed rushing share in 2024. Lowest share he has had over the past 4 years by at least 4%

• Only 1 of Kyler Murray’s 5 rushing TDs came from inside the 5-yard line. The other 4 had distances of 50, 44, 12, and 20 yards to the endzone

• Only Malik Nabers, AJB, Puka, Justin Jefferson, and Drake London had a higher target share than McBride last season (28.6%) Next closest TE was Brock Bowers at 26% and McBride’s 2024 season leads all TE seasons over the past 4 seasons.

• Marvin Harrison Jr. had the lowest TPRR (0.22) among true WR1s last season. Players below him (Jeudy had Amari Cooper half the season), Jakobi (had Davante Adams half the season), DK Metcalf (had JSN/Lockett), DJ Moore (had Keenan Allen/Rome Odunze)

• Among WRs that had at least 85 targets last season, only Amari Cooper had a lower catch rate than Marvin Harrison Jr.

Atlanta Falcons

• From Week 11 to Week 17 Kyle Pitts ran 70+% of the Falcons routes only once. He had a 63.2% route share across those weeks, ranking 23rd among TEs. Lower than Noah Fant, Chig Okonkwo, and Juwan Johnson. He ran fewer total routes than Noah Gray
• Extremely small sample but Michael Penix had an aDOT of 10.3 in 2024. That would be the 6th highest for a QB last season with at least 100 dropbacks.
• In Penix’s three starts position target shares: RB = 16.1% WR = 67.3% TE = 16.6% Position target shares in all other weeks: RB = 15.6% WR = 71.9% TE = 12.5%
• Drake London target share in Penix starts was 39%, and without him it was 24.6%
• In 2023, Allgeier had an expected touchdown total of 4.32 and Bijan was at 3.41. In 2024 Bijan had an expected touchdown total of 10.0 compared to Allgeier’s 4.57

Baltimore Ravens

• Lamar Jackson posted the highest passing touchdown per aimed pass rate of any QB with at least 200 dropbacks over the past 4 seasons at 9.3%. The next closest was 2024 Baker Mayfield at 7.6%. There have been only 7 QB seasons over the past 4 years to be above 7%. The average is 4.6%. The average of the top 25% is 6.4%. Lamar’s PTD per aimed pass rate in each other season since 2021 were 4.5%, 5.7%, 5.6%.
• From Week 10 on Isaiah Likely ran more routes than Mark Andrews only once
• In Weeks where Charlie Kolar was inactive or ran less than 5% of the routes Andrews Route Share was 64.7%, and Isaiah Likely’s was 52.9%. In weeks where Kolar ran more than 5% of the routes and Likely was active Andrews had a 52.7% route share and Likely had a 49.8% route share.
• In 2023 Zay Flowers ranked 45th of 57 WRs with at least 75 targets in aDOT with an aDOT of 8.9. In 2024 he ranked 27th of 53 WRs with at least 75 targets with an aDOT of 10.9
• Zay Flowers had a larger percentage of the Raven’s deep targets 30% than Rashod Bateman (21.4%) but Flowers only scored 1 TD on deep targets whereas Bateman scored 5 TDs. Bateman had 29.9 XFP on deep targets and scored 67.2 PPR FP
• Derrick Henry YPC in three prior seasons to joining the Ravens maxed out at 4.4. He reach 6.0 YPC in 2024. That is the highest YPC among players with at least 150 designed carries over the past 4 years. The top 25% of those players averaged 5.1 YPC
• Among QBs with at least 35 designed carries, Lamar Jackson appears in the top 10 each of the last 4 seasons in YPC. Only Kyler Murray shows up more than once in the top 10
• Rashod Batemon’s 14.9% receiving touchdown per target is the 2nd highest for any WR that has at least 50 targets in a season across all WR seasons over the past 4 seasons.
• Lamar’s expected designed carry rush TD rate fell to a four-season low 1.3%. His next lowest rate was in 2022 at 3.3%. He was only expected to score 1.3 designed rushing TDs and had zero QB sneak carries for the first time in his career. Despite that, he scored 4 designed rushing TDs this season
• On the flip side, Derrick Henry saw the highest expected designed rushing TD rate of his past 4 seasons at 3.3%. He still scored 7 more TDs than what he was expected

Buffalo Bills

• When Joe Brady took over as the OC for the Bills in 2023 for the final seven games of the season, the Bills only had a positive PROE for 2 of those seven games. In 2024, they had a positive PROE in 9 of 17 weeks.
• Pre Joe Brady in 2023 the Bills had a pass rate of 42.9% inside the 10 and 55% inside the 20. Brady’s final seven games in 2023 those fell to 28.9% and 37.7%. In 2024, those numbers stayed low at 39.6% and 45.4,% ranking inside the bottom 7 of the league for both.
• From Week 15 on James Cook only crossed a 30% route share 3 times including the playoffs. He only ran more routes than Ty Johnson once over that span. Weeks 1-14 James Cook averaged 40% of the routes while Johnson average 28% of the routes
• Weeks 1-10 Dalton Kincaid ranked 23rd among TEs in routes run per team dropback at 59.7% pre injury. Week 15 on including playoffs and excluding Week 18 that fell to 53.6% ranking 30th among TEs
• James Cook had the lowest designed target rate (6.8%) among every RB in the NFL with at least 25 targets. Ty Johnson was at 13.8% and also ranked in the bottom 5
• WRs with a higher TPRR than Khalil Shakir in 2024: Nico Collins, Malik Nabers, Drake London, Josh Downs, CeeDee Lamb, Mike Evans, and Amon-Ra St. Brown.
• Only Wan’Dale Robinson had a lower aDOT among WRs than Khalil Shakir
• Josh Allen designed rush rate by year 2021: 19.2%, 2022: 18.9%, 2023: 15.0%, 2024: 14.0%. QB Sneak rate by year 2021: 12.4%, 2022: 16.5%, 2023: 39.2%, 2024: 43.4%
• Allen had a career high 5.8 expected QB sneak touchdowns this season and he scored 7.
• James Cook scored 7.7 more TDs than he was expected to. That is the largest difference for any RB over the past 4 seasons. His 7.4% TD per carry rate was the 4th highest of an RB over the past 4 seasons. His expected TD per carry rate was 4.3%, which ranks 15th.

Carolina Panthers

• Bryce Young’s aimed throw rate (percentage of pass attempts that are thrown to a targeted receiver not thrown away, batted, etc.) jumped from 86.8% in 2023 (ranked 2nd lowest among all QBs over the past 4 seasons min 200 throws) to 91.4% in 2024 (ranked 30th lowest). That’s an extra 18 passes that could have accumulated fantasy points in 2024.
• Young’s expected TD rate jumped to 4.9% in 2024 ranking 15th among QBs with at least 200 throws this season. Compared to 3.0% in 2023 which ranked 2nd lowest
• From Week 13 on no RB had a higher route run per team dropback rate than Chuba Hubbard at 64.4%. Rico Dowdle ranked 11th at 47.6% over that span
• Among all players’ last 5 games played, Adam Thielen ranks 13th in target share at 27.8%. He ranked 32nd in separation score among players with at least 200 routes run. Above Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Tee Higgins, Cortland Sutton, George Pickens, and CeeDee Lamb
• From Weeks 5-10 and then 15 to 18, when Jalen Coker became a full-time player. Xavier Legette had only a 1% higher target share, a 0.05 higher TPRR, a 3% higher air yard share, and an 8% higher designed target rate.
• In 2024, Chuba Hubbard ranked inside the top 5 of snap share, designed carry share, and route share among all RBs. Dating back to 2023 when he took over as RB1 in Week 6 he also ranked in the top 10 in snap and carry share.
• Over the past 4 seasons among RBs with at least 250 carries. Chuba Hubbard would rank 40th in YPC. He ranked 10th in 2024

Chicago Bears

• There have only been six other QB seasons over the past four seasons with at least 300 passing attempts and an aimed throw rate lower than Caleb Williams’s 89.7% rate in 2024. The QBs are Russell Wilson twice, Justin Fields twice, rookie Bryce Young, and 2024 Gardner Minshew. 2024 Jared Goff ranked 60th of 114th qualifying QB seasons in 2024.
• In 2021 Jared Goff had a passing yards per aimed attempt of 7.1. When Ben Johnson arrived in 2022, it rose to 8.1 and rose every season after reaching a peak of 9.2 last season. Caleb had a YPA of 7.0 last season ranking 98th of 114 qualifying QB seasons over the past 4 years.
• In 3 years as the Lions OC, the designed target rate for Johnson’s WR1 were 7.8%, 13.7%, and 12%. DJM in 2021 and 2022 had designed target rates of 10.1% and 11.9% which resulted in 14 FP/G (WR26) and 11.7 FP/G (WR36). In 2023 and 2024 he had designed target rates of 16.5% and 28.3% which resulted in 16.9 FP/G (WR9) and 14.1 FP/G (WR28)
• Under Ben Johnson, D’Andre Swift had a target share of 14.8% in 2022. That is the 16th highest mark for an RB among RBs that played at least 8 games over the past 4 seasons. He had the 6th highest TPRR among all RBs over the past 4 seasons in 2022 at 29.5%.
• In three seasons as the Lions OC Ben Johnson’s TE1 have had target shares of 15%, 19.5%, and 17%.
• DJM had a yards per target of 7.0 and a catch rate of 71% in 2024. There have only been 3 WR seasons to have 75+ targets, a catch rate of at least 70% and a YPT at 7.0 or less. The other two WRs were Michael Pittman in 2022 and Wan’Dale Robinson in 2023.
• Only DeAndre Hopkins, Tee Higgins, and Mike Evans had a higher expected touchdown per target rate than Rome Odunze’s 7.5% in 2024. Hopkins had an actual TD per target rate of 6.8%, Higgins had 9.5%, and Evans had 10.6%. Rome had 3.1%.
• Ben Johnson’s offense has produced the leader in expected touchdown per designed carry among RBs with at least 150 carries each of the past 3 seasons.

Cincinnati Bengals

• Among QBs with at least 350 pass attempts in 2024, Joe Burrow led all QBs with a 6.4% expected touchdown per attempt rate. No other QB was over 6%. Burrow’s previous high was 5.1% in 2022. He ranked 4th in actual TD per attempt rate in 2024 behind Lamar, Goff, and Baker.
• Chase Brown had the 2nd highest route run per team dropback rate among all RBs last season from Week 9 on. Yet he ranked 15th and 17th in target share and designed target rate.
• The only RBs to have higher total expected receiving touchdowns (3.11) than Chase Brown were De’Von Achane and Aaron Jones in 2024
• Chase Brown’s 85.6% designed rushing share over his last five games played would have ranked 1st across the full season among all RBs in 2024. It also would rank 2nd among all RBs over the past 4 seasons besides 2021 Derrick Henry. There have only been two RB seasons where the RB had over 80% of the team's designed carries.
• Mike Gesicki only ran 7.8% of his routes as a traditional inline tight end — the lowest mark among all TEs with min 200 routes run in 2024. Next closet was Mark Andrews at 19.8%. That is the lowest mark for Gesicki since 2021 when he ranked as the TE14 in FPG and TE9 in XFP/G
• Gesicki had his lowest aDOT over the past four seasons at 7.7
• The target share difference between Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins was the smallest it has been since Chase’s rookie season. 2022 it was Chase +10%, 2023 was Chase +8.3%, 2024 was Chase +3.5%

Cleveland Browns

• Jerome Ford has run the 10th and 12th most routes among all RBs over the past two seasons
• Among RBs that ran at least 150 routes last season, Jerome Ford’s 0.15 TPRR ranks 5th lowest. He had a TPRR of 0.21 in 2023
• For the 4 games Cedric Tillman was a full-time player, he had more targets, more air yards, more first-read targets, and more designed targets than Jerry Jeudy
• Among all players’ last 5 games played Tillman would only rank 50th of 102nd among WRs with at least 100 routes run in YPRR at 1.71
• David Njoku’s 5.4 yards per target is by far the lowest mark for him over the past 4 seasons. The next closet was 7.4 in 2023. That is the lowest mark for any TE with at least 50 targets over the past 4 seasons
• After having 11 games with double-digit carries in 2023, Jerome Ford had only 5 games with double-digit carries in 2024. His max carries in a game were 12.
• Only Jahmyr Gibbs, Saquon Barkley, and Derrick Henry had a higher YPC than Jerome Ford last season min 100 carries
• The Browns brought in Mike Bloomgren to be their OL Coach. In 8 years as the Rice University OL Coach they never had a YPC higher than 3.9 as a team and never ranked higher than 79th in the NCAA

Dallas Cowboys

• In 2024 the only QBs with a lower passing yards per aimed attempt than Dak Prescott’s 7.38 were Drake Maye, Will Levis, Bo Nix, Caleb Williams, Aaron Rodgers, Mac Jones, Bryce Young, Daniel Jones, and Cooper Rush
• 2024 was the first season over the past 4 years that Dak Prescott has had a passing touchdown per attempt rate below 6%. He was at 4.1% in 2024. He went from ranking 8th to 5th to 3rd in 3 consecutive seasons to then ranking 26th in 2024
• Jonathan Mingo never ran more routes than Kavonte Turpin once he was traded to the Cowboys
• Over the final 5 weeks of the season Jake Ferguson’s route run per team dropback rate fell 10% to 62.7%. However the Cowboys pass rate fell to 52% over the final 5 weeks compared to 66.8% from Weeks 1-10 with Dak suggesting the Cowboys shifted to a much more run-heavy gameplan.
• There have been 152 receiver seasons where the WR has run 500+ routes. 2024 Jalen Tolbert ranks 145th of 152 of those WR seasons in target share with just a 12.8% target share. That target share fell to 9.8% over his last 5 games played excluding Week 18

Denver Broncos

• Rookie QB seasons to have a higher passing touchdown per passing attempt rate than Box Nix’s 5.1%, 2012 Russell Wilson 6.6%, 2020 Justin Herbert 5.2%, 2019 Daniel Jones 5.2%, 2018 Baker Mayfield 5.6%. He had a better touchdown rate than Jayden Daniels, Andrew Luck, Joe Burrow, and CJ Stroud in their rookie seasons.
• Nix ranked 16th of 23rd among QBs with at least 350 attempts in expected passing touchdown per attempt rate in 2024.
• Jaleel McLaughlin has only 5 games in his career where he has a route run per team dropback rate greater than 20%. He has never been over 30%.
• Audric Estime maxed out with an 11.4% route run per team dropback rate in Week 11.
• Marvin Mims had his highest route run per team dropback rate of 67% in the playoffs. He also ran more routes than Troy Franklin the last 3 weeks of the regular season. He only did that once the previous fifteen weeks of the regular season.
• Over the Broncos last 5 games played, Marvin Mims was the only other Broncos player to see a double-digit target share besides Courtland Sutton.
• Marvin Mims has the 3rd highest yards per target (10.3) over the past 4 seasons combined among all WRs with at least 75 targets over that span
• Courtland Sutton had 9.6 expected receiving touchdowns (highest over the past 4 years for him) but only scored 8.
• Sutton saw a 10% higher air yard share (45.8%) in 2024 than he had seen in any of the prior three seasons. He also crossed 2.0 YPRR for the first time since 2019

Detroit Lions

• Jared Goff had a passing touchdown per aimed attempt rate of 7.1% in 2024. His previous high over the past four seasons was 4.9% in 2022. That is the third highest of all QB seasons with at least 250 attempts over the past 4 seasons
• There have been three other QB seasons prior to 2024 above 7%. The following season, each QB fell by at least 2%. The QBs were Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, and Matthew Stafford
• If you exclude the final 4 week of the regular season when David Montgomery was inactive, Jamhyr Gibbs ranked 19th in target share (10.2%) among RBs and 24th in targets per game (3.1) He had less targets per game than Kenneth Walker, Rico Dowdle, Justice Hill, Zack Moss, Rachaad White, and Austin Ekeler just to name a few.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown had his lowest target share (27.3%) and lowest target per route run (28%) since his rookie season. Those were still top 10 rates in the NFL.
• Amon-Ra St. Brown also saw his lowest rate of designed targets (7.8%) of since his rookie season. Jameson Williams had a higher rate of designed targets for the first time.
• In the final 7 games of the regular season, Jameson Williams only saw less than an 18% target share once. He was only above that mark twice in the first 7 games of the season that he played in.
• Weeks 1-9 Sam LaPorta ranked 25th in target share among TEs at 11%. Weeks 10-18 he ranked 7th with a 18.4% target share
• Jahmry Gibbs 8.3 YPT is the highest among RBs with at least 70 targets in a season over the past four seasons. The year before he had a 4.9 YPT

Green Bay Packers

• The Packers 51.2% pass rate in 2024 is the 5th lowest pass rate among all teams over the past four seasons. Their -4.5% PROE is the 11th lowest
• Josh Jacobs started the season running routes on 48.4% of the team’s dropbacks from weeks 1-11 ranking 15th among RBs. From weeks 12-18 including the playoffs he only ran 29.6% ranking 43rd among RBs.
• Over the past 2 seasons Romeo Doubs is the only Packers WR to run a route on 80+% of the team’s dropbacks in more than one week of the season. He did it 5 times in 2024
• Tucker Kraft ran a route on 76.2% of the team’s dropbacks from Week 4 on last year. Only 5 TEs ran a larger percentage of routes.
• 34% of Jacobs targets were designed in 2024. That is the highest rate for him by more than 10% over the past 4 seasons. Despite that this also was his lowest target share over the past 4 seasons at 9.2%
• Jayden Reed had 25 designed targets in 2024, 2nd most in the NFL among WRs. But he had only 41 1st read targets (removing designed targets) ranking 72nd. Some players that had more 1st read targets than Reed, Allen Lazard, Darius Slayton, David Moore, and Tre Tucker
• Wicks and Doubs both had over 15 more 1st read targets than Reed. Watson only had 6 less despite playing in 2 less games and getting hurt in others.
• Josh Jacobs YPRR has risen for 4 straight seasons. He ranked 24th in 2021 then 18th, then 13th, and in 2024 with a YPRR of 1.7 ranked 8th among RBs with 100+ routes run
• The only players with a lower YPT than Dontayvion Wicks in 2024 were Wan’Dale Robinson and Elijah Moore min 75 targets. Last season he ranked in the top 13
• Wick’s catch rate of 51.3% in 2024 ranked 318 of 326 WR seasons with 50+ targets over the past four seasons
• Josh Jacobs was expected to score 4 more touchdowns than he was ever expected to score in any of the previous 3 seasons. His expected touchdown per designed carry rate rose to 4.1%
• Tucker Kraft’s 10.5 YPT is the 4th highest mark for a TE in a season with 50+ targets over the past 4 seasons. George Kittle appears twice above him and one season for Dallas Goedert.

Houston Texans

• The Texans have been a top half of the league team in pass rate and PROE under Bobby Slowik the past two years. New OC Nick Caley comes from a Rams offense that has been in the bottom half of the league in both those metrics the past two seasons. Prior to the Rams, Caley was with the Patriots, who also were not a very pass-happy team post Tom Brady.
• CJ Stroud’s pressure rate rose from 34.6% in 2023 ranking 18th and a 6.2% sack rate ranking 16th to 39.2% in 2024 ranking 2nd highest and a 9.0% sack rate ranking 5th among QBs with at least 250 dropbacks
• Only Brock Purdy had a higher yards per aimed attempt number than CJ Stroud in 2023 (8.8). In 2024 Stroud ranked 18th among QBs with at least 250 dropbacks with a 7.7 YPA
• From Week 11 on and including the playoffs without Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell getting hurt in Week 16, Nico Collins only had a 24.7% target share ranking 15th, 0.28 TPRR ranking 12th, 2.52 YPRR ranking 14th, and 15.8 FP/G ranking 21st. He had less FP/G than Adam Thielen, JSN, Xavier Worthy, Ladd McConkey, Brian Thomas, and Jerry Jeudy
• Nico Collins is the only WR to have two seasons in the top 15 of YPT over the past four seasons minimum 75 targets. Tyreek Hill, Ja’Marr Chase, and Justin Jefferson only have 1 season
• Nico Collins and Tyreek Hill are the only two WRs to have two seasons in the top 8 of YPRR over the past two seasons.
• Joe Mixon saw the highest YPC (4.2) that he has seen over the past 4 seasons

Indianapolis Colts

• Anthony Richardson’s career 50.6% is the lowest for any QB’s 4 year completion rate. Next closet would be Dorian Thompson-Robinson’s 52.6%
• Among QBs with at least 300 passing attempts over the past 4 seasons, Anthony Richardson’s 3.7% interception rate is the 3rd highest behind only Bailey Zappe and Mike White
• There are only 7 QBs that have at least 300 passing attempts over the past 4 seasons. They are Mitchell Trubisky, Will Levis, Justin Fields, Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Lamar Jackson, and Anthony Richardson
• Jonathan Taylor has the lowest targets per route run (8.3%) among RBs over their last 5 games played and at least 75 routes run. He also had the second-lowest TPRR (12.7%) among RBs with at least 200 routes run in 2024. That ranks 3rd lowest among all RB seasons over the past 4 years
• In games Anthony Richardson started and finished Pittman had a 24.5% target share, without Richardson that fell to 20.5%. Downs went from 20.3% with ARich to 26.1% without. Taylor fell to just 5.3% with Richardson
• Downs’s 2.54 YPRR without Richardson would have been higher than Ja’Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, Zay Flowers, Davante Adams, Courtland Sutton, and Tee Higgins last season. It fell to 1.91 with Richardson
• Only Lamar Jackson has a higher YPC on designed runs than Anthony Richardson over the past 4 years combined at QB.

Jacksonville Jaguars

• Trevor Lawrence hit a career high 7.6 yards per aimed pass attempt in 2024. His career 7.2 YPA ranks 40th of 61 QBs with at least 300+ pass attempts over the past 4 seasons. He is lower than Desmond Ridder, Andy Dalton, Mason Rudolph, and Tyrod Taylor
• Baker Mayfield went from never getting higher than 7.4 YPA from 2021 to 2023 to jumping to 8.3 YPA under Coen.
• When Brenton Strange ran at least 50% of the routes in 6 games last season he averaged a 70.6% route run per team dropback rate which would have ranked 11th among all TEs last season.
• Strange averaged a 15% target share in those games and a 1.41 YPRR which would rank 22nd among TEs across the full season.
• From Weeks 11-17 only Puka, Nabers, and AJB had a higher target share than BTJ’s 30.6%
• Parker Washington’s highest YPRR of 1.11 last season in his career is barely ahead of Gabe Davis’s worst season which was 2024 when it was 1.05
• Travis Etienne now has 2 seasons in the bottom 18 among 126 RB seasons with at least 150 carries in YPC. In 2022 his 5.2 YPC on designed carries ranked 10th among all RB seasons over the past 4 seasons. He had a YPC of 3.6 in 2024 8th lowest.

Kansas City Chiefs

• Patrick Mahomes has now had two straight seasons having a lower actual passing touchdown per pass attempt rate than his expected passing touchdown per attempt rate. In 2021 and 2022 he was a full 1% higher than his expected rate.
• Mahomes has two seasons (2021 and 2022) in the top 10 of passing TD rate among QBs with at least 300 passing attempts over the past 4 seasons. No other QB appears in the top 10 more than once.
• From Weeks 16-17 and the playoffs when Marquise Brown returned, Noah Gray’s route run per team dropback rate was 27.7%. From Week 7-15 it was 47.3%
• Isiah Paceho had only 3 games with a target share over 10%. Two of those games came in weeks 1 and 2 before he got hurt. In 2023, he had at least a 10% target share in 10 of his 18 games played
• Rashee Rice had a 31.5% target share in Weeks 1-3. Only Nabers and AJB had a higher target share than that in 2024 across the full season.
• When Rashee Rice became a focal point in the offense in 2023 starting in Week 12, he had a 23.5% target share the rest of the way including the playoffs. Xavier Worthy became a larger part of the Chiefs' offense starting in Week 15 in 2024 and had a 25.9% target share the rest of the way.
• Only Rondale Moore has a lower aDOT than Rashee Rice’s career 4.8 among WRs over the past four seasons with at least 150 total targets. He has the highest YPRR (2.57) of all WRs with an aDOT of 8 or lower across the past four seasons. That includes players like Amon-Ra St. Brown, Deebo Samuel, and Chris Godwin
• Xavier Worthy’s YPRR doubled from Weeks 1-14 to Weeks 15 on. 1.2 to 2.4
• Travis Kelce’s YPRR fell from a peak in 2022 of 2.5 to a low of 1.7 in 2024. His YPT fell to 6.8 compared to 9.0 in 2022 and 8.5 in 2023
• Kelce’s receiving touchdown per target fell to 2.7% compared to 5.1% in 2023 and even higher in 2022 and 2021. His expected touchdown per target rate did fall to 4.1% but that was similar to his 2021 rate of 4.2%

Los Angeles Rams

• Matthew Stafford had the lowest expected passing TD rate of his past four seasons at 5.0%. He averaged 5.6% the three previous seasons. Over the final 5 games of the season it fell to 4.1%
• In games Cooper Kupp has missed over the past 2 seasons, Tutu Atwell has never run fewer than 84% of the routes
• In 2024, Kyren Williams had the lowest TPRR (11.4%) of all RB seasons over the past 4 seasons among RBs with at least 250 routes run. He was 15% each of the prior two seasons.
• Puka Nacua led all WRs that ran at least 250 routes in TPRR at 36.1% in 2024. That is the 2nd highest TPRR among all WR seasons over the past 2 seasons. Only Tyreek Hill in 2023 was higher
• Puka also led all WRs in YPRR in 2024 and was 4th highest among all WR seasons over the past 4 seasons.
• 2024 was the first time in the past 4 seasons that Davante Adams did not have a target share over 30%. He had a target share of 28.5% in 2024
• We saw 5 games in 2023 where Puka Nacua played and Cooper Kupp did not. In those five games Tutu Atwell saw target shares of 21%, 16%, 27%, 20%, and 17%
• Among RBs that have run at least 200 routes in the season but also seen less than 50 targets Kyren has ranked 1st and 3rd in expected receiving touchdowns each of the past two seasons

Los Angeles Chargers

• Justin Herbert had his highest passing yards per aimed attempt in 2024 (8.3) over the past four seasons. His previous high was in 2021 at 7.9
• On the flip side, Herbert had his lowest expected passing TD rate at only 4.35%. His previous low was in 2022 at 4.82% and over his last 5 games played it was only 3.14%
• Only 4 running backs have run at least 150 routes in each of the last 4 seasons and had at least a 20% TPRR. Aaron Jones, Alvin Kamra, Austin Ekeler, and Najee Harris
• The only WRs to have a higher YPRR than Ladd McConkey’s 2.57 were Justin Jefferson, Puka Nacua, Mike Evans, Nico Collins, and A.J. Brown
• Ladd McConkey’s 10.9 YPT is the 8th highest rate for a player with over 100 targets in a season over the past 4 seasons
• After three straight seasons with a YPRR over 2.0, Mike Williams posted a YPRR of 1.1 in 2024
• Only 7 players with at least 85 targets had a higher receiving TD per target than Quentin Johnston’s 8.7% in 2024. 29 players had a higher expected receiving TD per target than him, though
• J.K. Dobbins only had a 0.88% higher expected designed rushing TD rate than Najee Harris in 2024. Both were in the bottom 8 among RBs with at least 200 carries

Las Vegas Raiders

• Over the past 4 seasons combined, only Jalen Hurts has a higher completion rate than Geno Smith’s 68.5% among QBs with at least 250 passing attempts
• Dating back to 2014, in 7 of 10 seasons, Chip Kelly’s WR1 has had an 80% slot rate. Brock Bowers led the Raiders in percentage of routes from the slot in 2024
• There have only been 4 TE seasons where a TE had a higher target share than Brock Bowers’s 26.5% in 2024. Two of them were Mark Andrews, one was Kyle Pitts in 2022, and the last one was Trey McBride in 2024
• Chip Kelly offenses dating back to 2014 have only had an RB with a target share of at least 10% 4 times. Twice it was Demetric Felton at UCLA who was a converted WR. The other two were Zach Charbonnet in 2022 at UCLA and LeSean McCoy in 2014 with the Eagles.
• After Jakobi Meyers and Tre Tucker the Raiders don’t have another receiver on their roster that ran more than 40% of the routes in more than 1 game last season
• From Week 14 on Michael Mayer ran a route on 60% of the team’s dropbacks. That ranked 20th among all TEs. He is the TE2 for his team.

Miami Dolphins

• In the first two seasons of Tua’s career with Tyreek Hill he had a passing yards per aimed attempt of 9.4 and 8.5 in 2022 and 2023. In 2024 that fell to 7.5 YPA just barely ahead of his 2021 season without Tyreek when he had 7.1 YPA
• Tua’s 5.00% passing TD rate per aimed attempt is the lowest he has had since Tyreek Hill joined the team. He ranked 3rd and 10th in 2022 and 2023
• In 2022 and 2023 the Dolphins only had 0.66 TE routes per team dropback and 0.77 TE routes per team dropback. With the addition of Jonnu Smith that jumped to 0.92 in 2024
• After only topping a 50% route run share in 3 games in 2023. Achane averaged for the entire season a 55% route run share which was 6th highest among all RBs in 2024
• From Week 7 on Jonnu Smith ran a route on 67.2% of the team’s dropbacks ranking 17th among TEs. That was lower than Dalton Schultz, Zach Ertz, and Theo Johnson
• Tyreek Hill had the lowest target share (21.4%) that he has seen over the past four seasons in 2024. When he joined Miami he had two straight seasons north of 30% and both ranked in the top 10 among all WR seasons over the past 4 seasons.
• Jaylen Waddle’s target share fell to 16.3% in 2024 after being over 20% the prior two seasons. That ranked 61st among all WRs in 2024.
• Jonnu Smith has the highest TPRR (27.5%) for any TE season where they ran at least 250 routes. His four-year 24.9% TPRR is 1st among all TEs that have run at least 600 routes over the past four seasons
• Both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle were below 2 YPPR in 2024. Tyreek was above 3 the previous two seasons and Waddle was above 2.5.
• Jonnu only ranked 13th in 2024 with a 4.84% expected receiving TD per target. He was below Noah Gray, Isaiah Likely, Brenton Strange, and Mike Gesicki. However he had an actual receiving TD per target of 7.3%
• Achane’s YPC drop from 7.42 to 4.47 (a 2.95 difference) is the largest decrease for any RB in consecutive seasons over the past 4 seasons. Next closet was Miles Sanders who dropped 1.47 from 2022 to 2023.
• Achane’s expected rushing touchdown rate rose from 2.68% in 2023 to 3.95% in 2024

Minnesota Vikings

• Between Sam Darnold and Kirk Cousins, the lowest passing yard per aimed throw by a Vikings QB under Kevin O’Connell was 7.7. Darnold had a YPA of 8.5.
• Aaron Jones had his lowest TPRR 0.20 in 2024 across the past four seasons. That ranked 20th among RBs with at least 150 routes run in 2024. He ranked inside the top 11 each of the previous three seasons.
• Aaron Jones 1.3 YPRR in 2024 is the lowest number for him over the past 4 seasons. It ranked 22nd among RBs with at least 150 routes run. He never ranked lower than 11th before that.
• Aaron Jones had his highest expected receiving touchdown per target rate (5.3%) in 2024 across the past four seasons.
• From Week 12 on when TJ Hockenson was back healthy. His TPRR of 20% was behind 18 other TEs that ran at least 100 routes over that span. He ranked 11th in target share over that span.
• TJ Hockenson was only expected to score a touchdown on 2.56% of his targets in 2024. He has not been below 3.5% in each of the prior three seasons.
• Aaron Jones had the highest rushing share (59.7%) he has had over the past four seasons
• Aaron Jones had the lowest YPC (4.42) that he has had over the past four seasons. That ranked 15th among RBs with at least 150 carries. That is the first time he did not rank inside the top 6 over the past four seasons.

New England Patriots

• Drake Maye’s 4.85% passing TD per aimed attempt rate ranked 16th among QBs last season that threw at least 250 pass attempts. That was better than Justin Herbert, Brock Purdy, Matthew Stafford, and C.J. Stroud
• Rhamondre Stevenson ran more routes than Antonio Gibson in all but three games last season.
• Rhamondre Stevenson’s TPRR fell to 16.1% in 2024. His previous low was 22.1% in 2023
• Over the last five weeks of the seasons Kayshon Boutte’s 21.4% target share was higher than Jordan Addison, Tyreek Hill, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Khalil Shakir. He had the 26th highest target share over the final five weeks
• From 2021-2023 Hunter Henry never got over a 14% target share. That spiked to 19.3% in 2024 9th highest among TEs.
• 2024 was the first time Diggs’s aDOT fell below 10. It was 8.6 in 2024
• Stefon Diggs has now had two straight seasons with an expected receiving touchdown per target rate below 4%. League average over the past four seasons is 5.2%
• Rhamondre Steveson had his lowest YPC of his career in 2024 at only 3.8. That was fifth lowest among all RBs with at least 150 carries last season.

New Orleans Saints

• Derek Carr’s passing yards per attempt rocketed to 8.4 in 2024. It is the highest mark for him over the past four seasons. That was the 18th highest mark for a QB season over the past four seasons with at least 250 passing attempts.
• Only 7 QBs had a lower expected passing touchdown per attempt rate in 2024 than Derek Carr. Only 6 QBs had an actual passing touchdown per attempt rate than Carr’s 5.9% in 2024.
• From Week 13 on when Taysom Hill got hurt, Juwan Johnson had a 75.5% route run per team dropback rate. Only 6 other TEs had a higher route run rate than that over that span.
• The top 10 running back seasons in target share since 2021 contains 4 instances of Alvin Kamara, 4 instances of Christian McCaffrey, 1 of D’Andre Swift and 1 of Austin Ekeler. 2024 was Kamara’s highest season yet at 21.7%
• Kamara now has the two highest seasons in TPRR among RBs with at least 200 routes run over the past four seasons. He is the only RB to have 2 seasons with a 30+% TPRR.
• Kellen Moore’s highest RB target share came in 2023 with Austin Ekeler at 13.7%
• Chris Olave had a target share of 22.5% in games he ran a majority of the team’s routes in 2024. That was 25th among all WRs in those games.
• Prior to 2024, Rashid Shaheed’s highest target share was 14.3%. That jumped to 24.7%
• Taysom Hill’s TPRR was 29.4%. Before that he had not crossed 20%. His 2024 number was the 2nd highest rate for any TE season over the past four seasons among TEs with at least 100 routes run.
• Juwan Johnson has never had a target share above 15%
• Rashid Shaheed’s 2024 season leads all players in aDOT that had at least 40 targets and at least a 20% target share. His aDOT was 17.7. Next closet was Calvin Ridley’s 2024 at 15.7
• Only 9 WRs over the past 4 seasons combined have a higher cumulative YPRR higher than Chris Olave’s career 2.31 YPRR. He is higher than Ja’Marr Chase, Drake London, Mike Evans, and Brandon Aiyuk
• Alvin Kamara had the highest YPC 4.17 that he has had over the past four seasons.
• Taysom Hill had a 15.4% designed rushing TD rate in 2024. That is higher than any player in the past four seasons with at least 35 designed carries. Next closet was Josh Allen in 2023 at 13.3%. He was expected to have a rushing TD rate of 3.3%

New York Giants

• Only 86.8% of Russell Wilson’s pass attempts last season were aimed at targeted receivers. That is the lowest mark for any QB season over the past four seasons with at least 250 pass attempts.
• Russell Wilson’s 8.7 passing yards per attempt in 2024 is the 11th highest mark for a QB season over the past four seasons among QBs with at least 250 pass attempts. He was down at 7.6 in 2023
• From Week 12 on Darius Slayton ran a route on 60.6% of the team’s dropbacks. That ranked 74th among WRs across that span
• Theo Johnson had a higher route run per team dropback rate in his rookie season than Pat Freiermuth, Trey McBride, Cade Otton, and Michael Mayer did their rookie seasons.
• From Week 12 on Tyrone Tracy had the 3rd highest TPRR (27%) of all RBs over that span with at least 50 routes run
• Only four players have had multiple seasons with a 30%+ target share over the past four seasons. They are Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Cooper Kupp, and A.J. Brown. Malik Nabers 35.2% target share is the highest of any player over the past four seasons and the next closest was A.J. Brown in 2024 at 33.3%
• Among WRs that have run at least 250 routes in a season and had at least a 20% TPRR, Wan’Dale Robinson is the only WR to have multiple seasons with a YPRR at 1.4 or lower. He also is the only WR in that group with a target share above 24%. Marquise Brown is the only other WR to have more than a 20% target share.
• There have been 15 WR seasons where the receiver had at least a 30% target share. Malik Nabers 2.30 YPRR is the third lowest mark of all those seasons. The average of those seasons was 2.8 YPRR
• Wan’Dale Robinson has the lowest expected receiving touchdown per target (2.33%) among all WRs who have at least 100 targets over the past four seasons combined.
• Over the final 5 weeks of the regular season, Tyrone Tracy had the 10th highest designed rushing share at 63.8% among RBs

New York Jets

• Weeks 1-11 Breece Hall had the fourth highest route run per team dropback rate among all RBs at 57.3%. That fell to 43.7% from Week 12 on ranking 18th among RBs over that span.
• Over his last 5 games plays Breece Hall’s TPRR fell to 18.7%. In 2022 and 2023 he was over 30% which were 2 of the top 7 RB TPRR seasons over the past four seasons among RBs that had at least 100 routes run.
• Over the past 4 seasons combined among WRs that have at least 1000 routes run, Garrett Wilson ranks 7th in target share at 27.2%. Only Davante Adams, A.J. Brown, Justin Jefferson, Cooper Kupp, DJ Moore, and Tyreek Hill are higher.
• Among players that have had at least a 25% target share and 1000 routes run over the past four seasons, Garrett Wilson’s 1.79 YPRR is the lowest among them. The average among those players is 2.30 YPRR
• Breece Hall has the third highest YPRR for an RB over the past four seasons combined among RBs with at least 500 routes run. His YPRR also dropped from 1.99 in 2023 to 1.46 in 2024
• Justin Fields has never had less than a 20% designed carry share in games he started over the past three seasons
• Braelon Allen ranked 49th out of 54 RBs with at least 75 carries last season in YPC with 3.63

Philadelphia Eagles

• The Eagles' 47.5% pass rate in 2024 is the lowest for a team across a season over the past four seasons
• Their -6.1% pass rate over expectation was also the 6th lowest for a team across the past four seasons
• Including the playoffs, Jalen Hurts had a 9.2% sack rate. Only Will Levis, Caleb Williams, and DeShaun Watson had a higher sack rate. Hurts had never had more than a 6.6% sack rate before the 2024 season.
• Jalen Hurts' 9.3 YPC on scrambles is 3rd highest rate for a QB with at least 35 scrambles in a season across the past four seasons. His previous high was 8.3 YPC in 2021.
• Devonta Smith's target share in games without Dallas Goedert was 27%. With Goedert, it fell to 22.3%
• Saquon Barkley has never ranked lower than 7th in RB target share for a season before 2024. In 2024 he ranked 13th with his lower target share for a season at 12.0%
• AJ Brown and Davante Adams are the only two players in the NFL to have four straight seasons with a TPRR at 26% or higher.
• DeVonta Smith had the highest catch rate of all WRs with a minimum routes run of 250 routes in 2024 at 83.2%. That is also the 2nd highest rate for any WR over the past four seasons. His previous high was 73%.
• A.J. Brown has a higher YPRR over the past four seasons with at least 500 routes run than everyone but Puka Nacua
• Jalen Hurts had his lowest designed rushing share of his career at 20.7%. It still was higher than any other QB this season.
• Barkley had a 5.7 YPC in 2024. 3rd highest for an RB season over the past four seasons minimum 200 carries. His previous high was 4.6 YPC
• Among the 25 RBs that had at least 200 carries last season, Barkley ranked 19th in expected touchdown per carry rate at 2.7%

Pittsburgh Steelers

• George Pickens' target share in 2023 in games without Diontae Johnson was 26.1%. It was 24.1% in 2024 without Johnson. With Johnson in 2023 it fell to 19% and the Steelers added DK Metcalf who has never been below a 20% target share.
• Besides 2024, George Pickens has never had a TPRR higher than any of DK Metcalf’s seasons over the past four years. Before 2024 Pickens’ highest TPRR was 21%. Metcalf’s lowest was 21.5%
• Pat Freiermuth had his lowest TPRR over the past four seasons at 17.6%. He also had his highest route run per team dropback rate at 70.9%
• Neither the Steelers offense or the Seahawks offense has produced multiple 2.0 or higher YPRR receivers in the same season. Metcalf has a YPRR of 2.0 over the past four seasons and Pickens has a 1.93
• Among TE’s that had at least a 5.0% receiving TD per target rate in 2024, Pat Freiermuth had the lowest expected receiving TD per target rate at 3.58%. His actual rate was 9.0%
• Jaylen Warren has never had more than 50% of the team’s designed carries in a game in his career.

Seattle Seahawks

• Sam Darnold’s 8.55 passing yards per aimed attempt in 2024 was higher than any Kirk Cousins season dating back to 2021 with the Vikings. It ranked 16th among all QB seasons over the past 4 seasons with at least 250 dropbacks.
• Sam Darnold completion percentage from 2021 to 2023 averaged 59.7%. That went up to 66.0% in 2024.
• In 2023 Kenneth Walker ran more routes than Zach Charbonnet in only four games. In 2024 Walker ran more routes than Charbonnet in 8 of 11 games that Walker played in.
• Kenneth Walker had over a 10% target share for the first time in his career in 2024. Klint Kubiak has had an RB with at least a 10% target share in his offense dating back to 2021. In three of those four seasons he has had an RB with a 15+% target share. They Were Alvin Kamara, Christian McCaffrey, and Javonte Williams.
• Over Cooper Kupp last five games played he had only a 12.7% target share. That is less than half of his 2024 season target share and any other season target share going back to 2021.
• Weeks 1-13 Noah Fant’s target share was 9.5%. Week 14 on his target share rose to 17.1%
• Cooper Kupp has now had two straight seasons with a 7.6 YPT. In 2021 and 2022 he was at 10.6 and 8.4. His aDOT has not changed.
• After having only a 3.2% expected receiving touchdown per target rate in 2023, JSN’s rate rose to 5.1% in 2024. That was still lower than both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
• 2024 was the first time Kenneth Walker’s YPC fell below 4.0. It fell to 3.3 in his final 5 games he played last season. Charbonnet had a YPC of 4.2.

San Francisco 49ers

• Brock Purdy leads all QBs over the past four seasons combined in passing yards per aimed attempt. His 9.4 YPA is almost a full yard higher than Lamar Jackson’s 8.5 who comes in right behind Purdy.
• Despite the injury last season, Christian McCaffrey still has 3 of the top 6 seasons in RB route run per team dropback.
• George Kittle route run per team dropback rate fell from 81.5% in 2023 to 70.6% in 2024
• Jauan Jennings 2024 24.3% target share was higher than any season long target share for Brandon Aiyuk’s career. It is higher than Deebo’s last two seasons.
• Jennings 2024 27.3% TPRR is higher than any season TPRR for Aiyuk, Deebo, or Kittle over the past four seasons.
• Jauan Jennings 9.03 YPT in 2024 was lower than every Brandon Aiyuk season, every George Kittle season, and only higher than Deebo’s 2024 and 2022 season dating back to 2021.
• George Kittle’s 12.0 YPT in 2024 is 2nd highest among all player seasons over the past four seasons with at least 75 targets. He also had the highest YPRR for a TE in 2024 over the past four seasons.
• Christian McCaffrey had a YPC of 4.0 in 2024. Both Isaac Guerendo and Jordan Mason were over 5.0 last season and Patrick Taylor was at 4.7. That was McCaffrey’s lowest YPC by 0.5 over the past four seasons.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• Bucky Irving’s 1.8 YPRR is the 8th highest for an RB season over the past 4 seasons among RBs with at least 200 routes run. Only Kamara and Gibbs were higher in 2024
• Baker Mayfield had not had a completion rate for a season above 70% in any season from 2021 to 2023. He reached 71.7% in 2024 and 75.8% in his last five games.
• Baker Mayfield’s 7.6% passing TD per aimed attempt in 2024 is 2% higher than any season over the past four years.
• Bucky Irving only ran more routes than Rachaad White in 3 weeks of the season including the playoffs. From Weeks 12 through the Wild Card round Irving’s route share only went up 5% to 35.9% compared to Weeks 1-11. Rachaad White’s route share fell 10% between those two spans.
• Only Alvin Kamara had a higher TPRR than Bucky Irving’s 24.4% in 2024
• In games they both played Mike Evans only out-targeted Chris Godwin once in 2024. In games without Godwin from Week 12 on, Evans had a 29.0% target share which ranked 8th among WRs over that span.
• Chris Godwin had the 4th-lowest aDOT among WRs with at least 50 targets last season. It resulted in his highest YPT of his career reaching 9.4
• Rachaad White had a 10.3% receiving TD per target in 2024. 2% higher than any other RB season over the past four seasons among RBs with at least 50 targets. His expected TD rate was 3.3% and ranks 26th among all those seasons.
• Bucky Irving actually had a higher expected TD per target rate than White last season but only scored on 1.85% of his targets
• Bucky Irving only had a lower YPC than Saquon Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Derrick Henry last season. His 5.4 YPC ranks 6th among all RB seasons with at least 150 carries over the past four seasons.

Tennessee Titans

• Calvin Ridley had his highest YPRR over the past four seasons in 2024. He was over 2.0 for the first time in four years with the Titans.
• From Week 13 through 17 only three tight ends had a higher target share than Chig Okonkwo’s 20.3% that played at least 4 games. They were Travis Kelce, Brock Bowers, and Trey McBride. From Weeks 1-12 he only had a target share of 9.6% and ranked 31st among TEs.
• Tony Pollard saw the largest designed carry share he has seen in his career in 2024. 66.4% is 8% higher than his previous high in 2023.
• Tyjae Spears only saw more than 10 carries in a game with Tony Pollard once in all of 2024.
• Spears had a YPC 0.5 lower than Tony Pollard 4.2 in 2024. Spears fell to 3.7 after being at 4.5 in 2023.
• Tony Pollard had the lowest expected touchdown rushing rate in 2024 at only 1.6% among RBs with at least 75 carries. Spears was at 3.14%

Washington Commanders

• No one dropped back more than Jayden Daniels across their final five games played in the 2024 season. He averaged 45.2 dropbacks per game. Kyler Murray averaged 40 dropbacks per game in his final season with Kliff Kingsbury in 2022.
• No one had a higher scramble rate than Jayden Daniels in 2024 yet seven other QBs with at least 35 scrambles had a higher YPC on scrambles than him including Drake Maye and Baker Mayfield
• Deebo Samuel has now run a route on less than 75% of his team’s dropbacks each of the past two seasons. Terry McClaurin was the only wide receiver to run a route on more than 75% of the Commanders dropbacks in 3+ games in 2024
• Only Jordan Mason and Derrick Henry had a lower target share among RBs that played at least 50% of their team’s snaps than Brian Robinson Jr. in 2024.
• 2024 was the first time Deebo Samuel had a target share less than 20% over the past four seasons. His TPRR also fell below 20% for the first time.
• Of 28 WRs that have had 100 targets and at least an aDOT of 13+ yards, Terry McClaurin’s 2024 catch rate of 70.6% is 2nd highest over the past four seasons. Only 2021 Tyler Lockett is above him and no one else is above 68%.
• Austin Ekeler has three seasons in the top 10 in RB YPRR seasons over the past four seasons among RBs with at least 250 routes run. Alvin Kamara is the only other RB with three seasons and no one else has two.
• Terry McLaurin’s expected receiving TD rate in 2024 was 3% higher than it ever has been over the previous three seasons.
• Jayden Daniels had a lower designed rushing share than Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, Anthony Richardson, and Daniel Jones in 2024.
• Among QBs with 50+ designed carries over the past four seasons, Jayden Daniels 3.6 YPC ranks 15th of 21 QB seasons.