2023 Week 10 DFS Early Look

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2023 Week 10 DFS Early Look

Week 9 of the NFL regular season just wrapped up, and that means Week 10 is just around the corner. As my readers likely know, DFS is the best version of fantasy football, and since DraftKings and FanDuel have released their Week 10 prices, it’s time to track down the obvious values and best plays.

Here are the plays that jumped out to me for Week 10 DFS.

Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (VS. HOU)

DraftKings: $6,800 (QB4) | FanDuel: $8,200 (QB3)

Since 2021, Burrow has averaged 25.9 FPG in games with a PROE (pass rate over expectation) above +8.0% – a mark that would easily lead all slate-eligible QBs. Good news! Cincinnati has cleared that mark in four straight games, averaging a league-high +16.7% over this span.

Burrow is in contention to finish as fantasy’s QB1 for the remainder of the season, but the DraftKings pricing algorithm continues to unfairly ding him for his injury-plagued start to the season. He’s priced at just $6,800, $360 cheaper than his average DraftKings salary over the final five weeks of the 2022 season.

Burrow is a clear value relative to his DraftKings salary this week, but the icing on the cake here is the 46.5 total – one of four games with a total over 42.0 on the main slate. We always want to play Burrow in high total settings, and that only increases on a slate with limited offensive firepower.

Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers (@ JAX)

DraftKings: $5,700 (QB12) | FanDuel: $7,400 (QB8)

Purdy averages 19.4 DraftKings FPG across his 15 fully healthy career starts, which ranks 5th-best among slate-eligible QBs this season, presenting obvious value relative to his price on both sites.

Purdy gets a boost from playing in one of the few games on this slate with a respectable total (45.0), and a further boost from facing one of the league’s premier pass funnels. Jacksonville has forced the 2nd-highest defensive PROE (+7.8%) while ranking as the 2nd-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs on the ground (-4.0 FPG).

The 49ers will want to keep the ball on the ground given Purdy’s recent struggles, but they may not have a choice against this Jacksonville defense. San Francisco will probably need to be pushed by the Jaguars for Purdy to hit his ceiling, but he still represents one of the best QB values on the Week 10 slate.

Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers (@ PIT)

DraftKings: $6,500 (RB11) | FanDuel: $6,800 (RB13)

Green Bay was clearly playing it safe with Jones as he worked his way back from a hamstring injury. He hadn’t eclipsed a 49% snap share or 14.0 XFP in any game this season, but that changed in Week 9 when Jones posted a 57% snap share, 52% route share, 23% target share, and 20.8 XFP.

Those final three numbers ranked 9th, 1st, and 2nd among Week 9 RBs. Crucially, Jones handled 67% of snaps, 75% of opportunities, and 76% of backfield XFP in the red zone. It’s hard to see Jones’ usage going anywhere but up, with AJ Dillon averaging a pathetic 3.3 YPC.

For Week 10, Jones should be the focal point of Green Bay’s offense in a neutral matchup, with Christian Watson (back, chest) looking pretty beat up. He’s a strong value with upside (2nd-most games of 40.0 or more DraftKings points among RBs since 2019).

Jerome Ford, RB, Cleveland Browns (@ BAL)

DraftKings: $5,300 (RB19) | FanDuel: $6,400 (RB19)

Jerome Ford managed 20.3 XFP (4th-best among Week 9 RBs), a 63% snap share (11th-best), 53% route share (7th-best), and a 23% target share (best) in Deshaun Watson’s first full game since Week 3.

Ford is an easy value if we anticipate ~65% of backfield XFP moving forward, and he really pops this week with the Browns implied for negative gamescript as 6.0-point underdogs to Baltimore. The Ravens are a top-8 schedule-adjusted receiving matchup for opposing RBs through the air (+1.5 receiving FPG), and Deshaun Watson is checking the ball down at a top-12 rate (11%).

Expect Ford to be a popular salary-saving option at RB this week, given his near-monopoly on backfield receiving work.

Brandon Aiyuk, WR San Francisco 49ers (@ JAX)

DraftKings: $7,100 (WR7) | FanDuel: $7,800 (WR6)

Aiyuk has been nothing short of spectacular this season – he ranks 3rd in PFF receiving grades (91.5) and 2nd in YPRR (3.58) behind only Tyreek Hill.

We always want to target spectacular players in DFS, especially when they are faced with incredible matchups. Jacksonville is the 2nd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing outside WRs (+8.3 FPG), and they are a top-3 pass funnel by PROE allowed. That should enable Aiyuk to continue his outstanding efficiency, while the pass funnel should force San Francisco to feed him the ball.

Aiyuk stands out as one of the best values among the expensive tier of WRs on a relatively thin slate.

DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Tennessee Titans (@ TB)

DraftKings: $6,000 (WR17) | FanDuel: $7,100 (WR10)

Hopkins ranks 13th in fantasy points per route run – nothing short of a miraculous feat, considering he was saddled with league-worst levels of QB play prior to the arrival of Will Levis. But now – seemingly – he has a competent QB. And he gets a matchup, which could actually force the league's most run-heavy offense to air it out.

Tampa Bay is a top-3 pass funnel by PROE allowed, and a top-3 schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing WRs (+8.5 FPG). Hopkins profiles as a strong tournament option in a game where Tennessee should be forced to throw.

Calvin Ridley, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars (VS. SF)

DraftKings: $5,600 (WR20) | FanDuel: $6,700 (WR19)

Ridley has been incredibly inconsistent this season, scoring double-digit DraftKings points in just half of his games. But Ridley has seen some consistency in favorable matchups, averaging 16.0 DraftKings FPG and 9.7 targets per game in his three games against teams that rank among the 10-softest schedule-adjusted matchups for opposing outside WRs.

San Francisco falls into that category, and Jacksonville should be forced to throw in this game as 3.0-point underdogs. Ridley is the cheapest he’s been on both sites all season and pops as a strong, matchup-based ‘buy-low’ option in one of the few games on this slate with any offensive juice.

Dalton Schultz, TE, Houston Texans (@ CIN)

DraftKings: $4,900 (TE6) | FanDuel: $6,100 (TE6)

Schultz is averaging 8.3 targets per game, 65.3 receiving YPG, and 16.7 DraftKings FPG over his last four games. Among slate-eligible TEs over the full season, those marks rank 2nd, 1st, and 1st. Schultz has been nothing short of a high-end TE1 over the last month while sneakily leading all TEs with 8 end zone targets – as many as Travis Kelce and George Kittle have combined.

And I wouldn’t expect that volume to slow down anytime soon after recent comments by Houston HC DeMeco Ryans suggested that the Texans want to continue throwing the ball as long as the run game remains inefficient. Efficiency on the ground won’t improve against the Bengals, who are a bottom-10 schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs on the ground, but the single-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing TEs.

We are going to want to get aggressive with game stacks this week given the lack of compelling scoring environments, and Schultz is the perfect way to get Mark Andrews levels of volume in a premier game for a mid-range TE1 salary.

Jake Tribbey is a recent college graduate and lifelong football fan obsessed with extracting every edge possible from NFL DFS, Best Ball, and player props/futures.