My 2023 NFL Power Ratings are designed to be a starting point for point-spread betting between two teams. They take into account recent performances, long-term injuries, coaching, and strength of schedule. These ratings are intended to help predict performances in the present, but they’re not necessarily predictive for the rest of the season. I will take my Power Ratings into account when I make my weekly against the spread picks, but I’ll also consider current injury reports, home-field advantage, weather, and other factors that may be relevant.
How to use my power rankings: My top-rated team, the San Francisco 49ers (8), would be 13-point favorites on a neutral field over my worst-rated team, the Chicago Bears (-5). Using a 1.5-point adjustment for home-field advantage (HFA average was 1.4 points in 2022), the 49ers would be 14.5-point favorites over the Bears at home and 11.5-point favorites over the Bears on the road.
2023 NFL Power Rankings: Week 5
|Rank||Team||Power Ranking||Super Bowl Odds||Ranking Adjustment||2023 Record (ATS)|
|1.||San Francisco 49ers||8||+550||+.5||4-0 (3-1)|
|2.||Philadelphia Eagles||7||+650||—||4-0 (2-1-1)|
|3.||Kansas City Chiefs||7||+550||—||3-1 (2-2)|
|4.||Buffalo Bills||6.5||+700||—||3-1 (3-1)|
|5.||Dallas Cowboys||6||+850||+.5||3-1 (3-1)|
|6.||Miami Dolphins||6||+1300||-.5||3-1 (3-1)|
|7.||Detroit Lions||5||+2000||+1||3-1 (3-1)|
|8.||Baltimore Ravens||4||+1200||+.5||3-1 (3-1)|
|9.||Cleveland Browns||3.5||+3000||—||2-2 (2-2)|
|10.||Jacksonville Jaguars||3.5||+3300||+.5||2-2 (2-2)|
|11.||Seattle Seahawks||3||+3800||+.5||3-1 (3-1)|
|12.||Los Angeles Chargers||2.5||+2800||—||2-2 (1-2-1)|
|13.||Cincinnati Bengals||2||+2800||-2.5||1-3 (1-3)|
|14.||Green Bay Packers||1.5||+5500||-.5||2-2 (3-1)|
|15.||Minnesota Vikings||1||+5000||+.5||1-3 (1-2-1)|
|16.||Los Angeles Rams||1||+7500||+.5||2-2 (2-2)|
|17.||New Orleans Saints||.5||+4300||-.5||2-2 (0-3-1)|
|18.||Tennessee Titans||0||+7000||+.5||2-2 (3-1)|
|19.||Pittsburgh Steelers||0||+9000||-1.5||2-2 (2-2)|
|20.||New England Patriots||0||+10000||-1.5||1-3 (1-3)|
|21.||New York Jets||-.5||+13000||+.5||1-3 (2-2)|
|22.||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||-.5||+6500||+1||3-1 (3-1)|
|23.||Washington Commanders||-.5||+10000||+.5||2-2 (2-2)|
|24.||Houston Texans||-1||+13000||+1.5||2-2 (2-2)|
|25.||Indianapolis Colts||-1.5||+13000||—||2-2 (2-2)|
|26.||Atlanta Falcons||-1.5||+8000||-1||2-2 (1-3)|
|27.||New York Giants||-1.5||+20000||-1||1-3 (0-4)|
|28.||Las Vegas Raiders||-2.5||+28000||—||1-3 (1-3)|
|29.||Arizona Cardinals||-2.5||+55000||+1||1-3 (3-1)|
|30.||Denver Broncos||-3||+15000||—||1-3 (1-3)|
|31.||Carolina Panthers||-4||+55000||—||0-4 (0-3-1)|
|32.||Chicago Bears||-5||+55000||-.5||0-4 (0-3-1)|
Rankings Adjustment Tracker
Teams who improved from the last Power Ratings update.
San Francisco 49ers — Christian McCaffrey is coming off a 4-TD performance with 177 scrimmage yards, which gives him 23+ touches, 1+ TD, 115+ scrimmage yards, and 22+ FP in each of his first four games.
Dallas Cowboys — Dallas has winning margins of +35, +20, and +40 points to open the season, sandwiching a 12-point loss to the Cardinals,
Detroit Lions — The Lions took early command of the NFC North thanks to a dominant victory over the Packers at Lambeau Field. David Montgomery controlled the action with 32/121/3 rushing, and they’ll get Jameson Williams back from suspension two games earlier than expected.
Baltimore Ravens — The Ravens took sole possession of first in the AFC North with Lamar Jackson accounting for 4 TDs against a Browns that was without Deshaun Watson.
Jacksonville Jaguars — The Jaguars snapped a two-game outright and ATS losing but the offense mustered just one TD in the victory over the Falcons.
Seattle Seahawks — Devon Witherspoon, the #5 overall pick from the spring, registered 2 sacks and a 97-yard pick six to hold the Giants to just 3 points.
Los Angeles Rams — The Rams could get Cooper Kupp (hamstring, IR) back as early as this week. Puka Bacua posted the most catches (39) and receiving yards (501) for any player through his first four games.
Tennessee Titans — Derrick Henry went from averaging 1.8 YPC for 11/20 rushing in a defeat to the Browns in Week 3 to averaging 5.5 YPC with 22/122/1 in a victory over the Bengals in Week 4.
New York Jets — Zach Wilson gave Jets fans their first taste of hope since Week 1, completing 28/39 passes for 245 yards (6.3 YPA) and 2 TDs in a loss to the Chiefs.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Baker Mayfield posted his first 3-TD passing performance since he threw for 3 scores against the Steelers in the 2020 Wild Card Round.
Houston Texans — C.J. Stroud is averaging 8.0 YPA without an INT on his first 151 NFL pass attempts, and the Texans have outscored their opponents 77-23 in the last 9 quarters.
Arizona Cardinals — The Cardinals failed to cover the spread for the first time, but they had multiple chances to do it late in the game.
Teams who worsened from the last Power Ratings update.
Miami Dolphins — The Dolphins went from beating the Broncos by 50 points in a historic 70-point offensive outburst to losing by 28 points the next week against the Bills.
Cincinnati Bengals — The Bengals have scored an NFL-worst 3 offensive TDs in the first four weeks.
Green Bay Packers — The Lions outgained the Packers 284 to 23 in the first half and held a 27-3 advantage through the first 30 minutes of Week 4. Green Bay also placed LT David Bakhtiari on the IR for a knee injury.
Pittsburgh Steelers — The Steelers have been outgained by an NFL-high 560 yards through four weeks, and they’ll be without Kenny Pickett (knee) for at least the next game.
New Orleans Saints — The Saints have mustered just 4 offensive TDs through four games with new quarterback Derek Carr, and New Orleans has played under the total in 10 straight games.
New England Patriots — The Cowboys handed Bill Belichick the worst loss of his career in a 38-3 defeat. They also lost Matthew Judon (biceps) and Christian Gonzalez (shoulder) in the defeat.
Atlanta Falcons — Ridder has thrown for 201 yards or worse in three of his first four games, and his QB rating has fallen in four straight games (111.8>79.8>70.2>62.7).
New York Giants — The Giants surrendered 11 sacks and failed to score a touchdown in a loss to the Seahawks. New York scored 31 points in two quarters against the Cardinals in Week 2 and have scored just 15 points in their other 14 quarters of action.
Chicago Bears — The Bears squandered a 21-point lead with 19 minutes to play against the Broncos, which was their 14th straight outright loss.