My 2023 NFL Power Ratings are designed to be a starting point for point-spread betting between two teams. They take into account recent performances, long-term injuries, coaching, and strength of schedule. These ratings are intended to help predict performances in the present, but they’re not necessarily predictive for the rest of the season. I will take my Power Ratings into account when I make my weekly against the spread picks, but I’ll also consider current injury reports, home-field advantage, weather, and other factors that may be relevant.
How to use my power rankings: My top-rated team, the Philadelphia Eagles (7), would be 12.5-point favorites on a neutral field over my worst-rated team, the Arizona Cardinals (-5.5). Using a 1.5-point adjustment for home-field advantage (HFA average was 1.4 points in 2022), the Eagles would be 14-point favorites over the Cardinals at home and 11-point favorites over the Cardinals on the road.
2023 NFL Power Rankings: Week 1
| Rank | Team | Power Ranking | Current Super Bowl Odds | Ranking Adjustment since 5/5 | 2022 Record (ATS) |
| 1. | Philadelphia Eagles | 7 | +800 | — | 14-3 (8-9) |
| 2. | Kansas City Chiefs | 6.5 | +600 | -.5 | 14-3 (5-11-1) |
| 3. | Cincinnati Bengals | 6 | +1000 | -.5 | 12-4 (12-3-1) |
| 4. | Buffalo Bills | 5.5 | +900 | -.5 | 13-3 (8-7-1) |
| 5. | San Francisco 49ers | 5 | +1000 | -.5 | 13-4 (11-6) |
| 6. | Dallas Cowboys | 5 | +1300 | — | 12-5 (9-7-1) |
| 7. | New York Jets | 4.5 | +1800 | +.5 | 7-10 (8-9) |
| 8. | Los Angeles Chargers | 4.5 | +2100 | — | 10-7 (11-5-1) |
| 9. | Baltimore Ravens | 4 | +1800 | — | 10-7 (6-9-2) |
| 10. | Detroit Lions | 4 | +2100 | -.5 | 9-8 (12-5) |
| 11. | Miami Dolphins | 3.5 | +2100 | — | 9-8 (9-8) |
| 12. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 3.5 | +2800 | — | 9-8 (8-8-1) |
| 13. | Seattle Seahawks | 3.5 | +3500 | — | 9-8 (7-10) |
| 14. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 3 | +4500 | +.5 | 9-8 (10-6-1) |
| 15. | Cleveland Browns | 2 | +3000 | — | 7-10 (8-9) |
| 16. | New York Giants | 1.5 | +4800 | — | 9-7-1 (13-4) |
| 17. | Green Bay Packers | 1.5 | +4000 | +.5 | 8-9 (8-9) |
| 18. | New England Patriots | 1 | +6000 | — | 8-9 (7-9-1) |
| 19. | Minnesota Vikings | 1 | +3500 | — | 13-4 (7-9-1) |
| 20. | New Orleans Saints | .5 | +4000 | — | 7-10 (7-10) |
| 21. | Denver Broncos | 0 | +4500 | — | 5-12 (7-10) |
| 22. | Tennessee Titans | -.5 | +6000 | +1 | 7-10 (9-6-2) |
| 23. | Washington Commanders | -1 | +6500 | +.5 | 8-8-1 (8-8-1) |
| 24. | Chicago Bears | -1 | +6000 | — | 3-14 (5-11-1) |
| 25. | Atlanta Falcons | -1 | +5500 | — | 7-10 (9-8) |
| 26. | Los Angeles Rams | -1.5 | +6500 | -.5 | 5-12 (7-9-1) |
| 27. | Carolina Panthers | -1.5 | +6000 | -1 | 7-10 (9-8) |
| 28. | Las Vegas Raiders | -1.5 | +7500 | -.5 | 6-11 (8-9) |
| 29. | Houston Texans | -2 | +18000 | -.5 | 3-13-1 (8-8-1) |
| 30. | Indianapolis Colts | -2.5 | +10000 | -.5 | 4-12-1 (6-11) |
| 31. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -3 | +7500 | — | 8-9 (4-12-1) |
| 32. | Arizona Cardinals | -5.5 | +18000 | -2 | 4-13 (8-9) |
Rankings Adjustment Tracker
UP
Teams who improved from the last Power Ratings update.
Cincinnati Bengals — Joe Burrow’s training camp calf injury has me worried the Bengals offense could get out of the gates slowly.
New York Jets — I might be drinking the Hard Knock’s Kool-Aid but Aaron Rodgers’ transition to the Jets has gone relatively smoothly.
Pittsburgh Steelers — The Steelers were the biggest winners of training camp with Kenny Pickett taking a leap in August.
Green Bay Packers — The vibes around Jordan Love and the Packers were positive in August, and the books are sleeping on them a bit heading into the season.
Tennessee Titans — The Titans made a massive improvement to their receiving corps by signing DeAndre Hopkins.
Washington Commanders — This offense has more upside than I anticipated and Sam Howell has played relatively well in his limited sample size since Week 18.
DOWN
Teams who worsened from the last Power Ratings update.
Kansas City Chiefs — The Chiefs could be without star Chris Jones as his holdout stretches into September.
Buffalo Bills — Von Miller is opening the season on the reserve PUP list, knocking him out for the first four games.
San Francisco 49ers — The 49ers could be without star Nick Bosa as his holdout stretches into September.
Detroit Lions — I was a touch too high on the Lions after the draft. I also have concerns about Jared Goff’s receiving corps while Jameson Williams is out through Week 6.
Carolina Panthers — The Panthers had a rough preseason. Ikem Ekwonu and this O-line need to improve if they don’t want to get the 2023 #1 overall pick killed this year.
Las Vegas Raiders — The Raiders have some potential trainwreck vibes if Jimmy Garoppolo isn’t the same away from Kyle Shanahan’s offense.
Houston Texans — I didn’t have high expectations for rookie C.J. Stroud but he looked overwhelmed in his limited preseason action, averaging 4.4 YPA on 18 attempts over eight series.
Indianapolis Colts — Jim Irsay did his best to run off his best offensive player before the start of the season, and his rookie QB needs all the help he can get.
Arizona Cardinals — The Cardinals cut DeAndre Hopkins this summer and they’re set to start the season with Josh Dobbs and Clayton Tune at quarterback.
Los Angeles Rams — Cooper Kupp isn’t out of the woods yet from his August hamstring injury, and his availability looms large over the start of the season for the Rams.
