The 2025 NFL season is starting to come into view, which means more NFL player props are being released with each passing week. I previously broke down the 2025 NFL Rushing Touchdown Props, and it’s time to dive into the 2025 NFL Most Rushing Touchdowns Odds for the league’s top runners. In this article, I highlighted bets I’ve already made on Josh Jacobs and Jahmyr Gibbs and a few additional wagers I considered.
Derrick Henry (+600), Jahmyr Gibbs (+2500), and James Cook (+5000) finished in a three-way tie for the most rushing TDs last season with 16. Jacobs (+2000) finished 1 TD off the league-leading pace. Henry (+600) is the favorite to lead the league in rushing touchdowns entering his age-31 campaign. He’s followed by Jalen Hurts (+800), Saquon Barkley (+1000), Jahmyr Gibbs (+1300), Kyren Williams (+1300), and Bijan Robinson (+1500) at 15/1 odds or shorter.
Check out all of my 2025 NFL Futures articles during the off-season and my Best Bets for the 2025 season. We finished up +59.83 units for the 2024 season, including +23.93 units on Futures wagers.
Rushing Touchdowns Leaders from the Last 8 Seasons
| Year | Running Back | Age | TDs | Odds (rank) |
| 2024 | Henry (Bal)/Gibbs (Det)/Cook (Buf) | 30/22/25 | 16 | +600 (2nd)/+2500 (14th)/+5000 (22nd) |
| 2023 | Raheem Mostert (Mia) | 31 | 18 | +4000 (26th) |
| 2022 | Jamaal Williams (Det) | 27 | 17 | +10000 (40th) |
| 2021 | Jonathan Taylor (Ind) | 22 | 18 | +800 (3rd) |
| 2020 | Derrick Henry (Ten) | 26 | 17 | +600 (1st) |
| 2019 | Henry (Ten)/Jones (GB) | 25/24 | 16 | +1000 (3rd)/+3000 (19th) |
| 2018 | Todd Gurley (LAR) | 24 | 17 | +650 (3rd) |
| 2017 | Todd Gurley (LAR) | 23 | 13 | +2500 (11th) |
Historical Hints
We have odds for the last eight years at our disposal. A player inside the top three in odds cashed in four straight seasons in 2018-21, but longshots Jamaal Williams (+10000) and Raheem Mostert (+4000) cashed in back-to-back seasons in 2022-23. Not only were Williams and Mostert longshot winners, but they were also 27+ years old, which ended a five-year run with league leaders that checked in at 26 years old or younger. Derrick Henry (+600) won his third rushing TD title at 30 years old as the second favorite, splitting the honor with longer-shots Jahmyr Gibbs (+2500) and James Cook (+5000).
Todd Gurley (2017-18) or Henry (2019-20) owned or shared the lead in rushing touchdowns in four straight seasons before Jonathan Taylor (+800) ended their run of titles in 2021. The rushing touchdown leader averaged at least a rushing TD per game in six straight seasons from 2018-23 before last season’s leaders fell just below that pace.
2025 NFL Most Rushing Touchdowns Odds
The table is sorted by Fantasy Points rushing touchdown projections. You should target the Longest Odds for Most Rushing TDs to maximize your potential return. I used odds from DraftKings (DK), FanDuel (FD), Caesars (CZR), ESPN Bet (ESPN), and Bet365 (365) as of Aug. 5.
| Runner | FP Projection | Longest Odds | Shortest Odds |
| Derrick Henry (Bal) | 13.2 | +600 (ESPN) | +425 (CZR) |
| Jahmyr Gibbs (Det) | 12.2 | +1400 (FD/ESPN) | +850 (365) |
| Bijan Robinson (Atl) | 11.9 | +1100 (FD) | +850 (365) |
| Jalen Hurts (Phi) | 11.3 | +800 (FD) | +550 (multiple) |
| Saquon Barkley (Phi) | 11.1 | +950 (FD) | +600 (365) |
| Josh Jacobs (GB) | 10.8 | +2500 (ESPN) | +1400 (365) |
| David Montgomery (Det) | 10.8 | +4000 (DK/MGM) | +1400 (FD) |
| Jonathan Taylor (Ind) | 10.2 | +1600 (ESPN/CZR) | +1300 (DK) |
| Kyren Williams (LAR) | 10.1 | +1400 (FD) | +700 (CZR) |
| Ashton Jeanty (LV) | 9.9 | +4000 (MGM/ESPN) | +2500 (365) |
| James Cook (Buf) | 9.9 | +3000 (multiple) | +2000 (365) |
| Kenneth Walker (Sea) | 9.5 | +8000 (MGM) | +3900 (FD) |
| Josh Allen (Buf) | 9.1 | +1600 (ESPN) | +900 (CZR) |
| Chuba Hubbard (Car) | 9.0 | +7500 (365) | +4300 (FD) |
| Omarion Hampton (LAC) | 8.8 | +8000 (MGM) | +3100 (FD) |
| Chase Brown (Cin) | 8.3 | +5000 (365) | +2800 (CZR) |
| James Conner (Ari) | 8.2 | +5000 (ESPN) | +3000 (CZR) |
| Bucky Irving (TB) | 8.1 | +8000 (MGM) | +2000 (ESPN) |
| Christian McCaffrey (SF) | 7.7 | +2500 (ESPN/365) | +1600 (CZR) |
| Brian Robinson (Was) | 7.5 | +10000 (ESPN) | +5000 (365) |
| De’Von Achane (Mia) | 7.3 | +8000 (MGM) | +4000 (365) |
| Isiah Pacheco (KC) | 6.7 | +25000 (365) | +6000 (FD) |
| Kaleb Johnson (Pit) | 6.6 | +25000 (ESPN) | +6000 (CZR) |
| Joe Mixon (Cin) | 6.5 | +4000 (DK/CZR) | +2500 (MGM) |
| Tony Pollard (Ten) | 6.4 | +20000 (ESPN/365) | +6000 (FD) |
| Breece Hall (NYJ) | 6.1 | +20000 (365) | +4000 (DK) |
Brolley’s Best Bets
Josh Jacobs (GB) most regular season rushing TDs (+2500, ESPNBet)
Jacobs finished one score shy of making it a four-way tie for the league lead in rushing touchdowns. He scored just 1 rushing TD through the first seven games before scoring 14 rushing TDs in his final 10 regular-season games. Jacobs scored rushing TDs in 10 of the final 11 games (postseason included) as the Packers leaned into their free-agent acquisition in the second half of his first season in Green Bay. Jacobs has scored 12+ rushing TDs in three of his last five seasons, and he’s scored the third-most TDs (54) in that span behind only Derrick Henry (68) and Jalen Hurts (55).
Jacobs tied Kyren Williams for the most inside the 5-yard line curries with 19, and he led the league with 12 rushing TDs from that range. He also led the league in carries inside the 10-yard line (40) and rushing TDs from the range (14). Marshawn Lloyd and Emanuel Wilson are his top competitors for touches, and they’re both missing significant time in camp. This is the second straight year that Lloyd, a 2024 third-round pick, has struggled to stay on the field. We’re projecting Jacobs to finish with the sixth-most rushing TDs, but ESPNBet has him listed with the 11th-best odds to capture the crown.
Jahmyr Gibbs (Det) most regular season rushing TDs (+1400, FanDuel)
The Lions split carries in their backfield right down the middle between David Montgomery (186) and Gibbs (185) in their 14 games together to open last season. It became abundantly clear that Gibbs is the far superior talent when Montgomery missed the final three regular-season games. Gibbs erupted for 64/365/5 rushing (5.7 YPA) and finished as the RB1 with 32.6 FPG in Weeks 16-18. Detroit went back to the status quo early in the Divisional Round, which ended up being a costly mistake. New playcaller John Morton will feel pressure to give more work to Gibbs, and the 2023 12th overall pick has routinely been the first back on the field in training camp. That’s a change from the last two seasons, when Montgomery would routinely be the first back on the field with the starting unit.
Gibbs’ 46.8 carry share paled in comparison to the NFL’s other top backs, ranking 25th overall, but that should change. He can score from anywhere on the field after ranking first in explosive run rate (10.0%) and fifth in MTF/ATT (.23), and the Lions ranked second in carries from inside the 5-yard line (38) and third in carries from inside the 10-yard line (65). The Lions could take a small step back without Ben Johnson, but they should still be among the top-scoring teams after averaging an NFL-best 29.0 PPG the last three seasons. Scott DiBenedetto also ranked the Lions as the NFL’s fifth-best offensive line entering the season. Gibbs has scored 26 rushing TDs on just 432 carries (6.0%) to start his career, including an NFL-best 16 scores last season. I’m expecting his carry share to jump into the 50-55% range in one of the league’s best offenses to give him a chance to be the first repeat rushing TD leader since Derrick Henry did it in 2019-20.
Brolley’s Leans
Derrick Henry (Bal) most regular season rushing TDs (+600, ESPNBet)
Henry is the deserving favorite to lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns, even as he enters his 10th season at 31 years old — we’re projecting Henry with a league-best 13.2 rushing TDs. He finished tied for the league lead with Jahmyr Gibbs and James Cook with 16 rushing TDs last season, which marked the third time in the last six years that he led the rushing TDs. Henry has reached double-digit rushing TDs in seven straight seasons, which is the second-longest streak with 10+ rushing TDs behind only LaDainian Tomlinson at nine.
Henry proved to be a perfect fit for Baltimore’s already potent rushing attack, and Scott DiBenedetto ranked the Ravens as the NFL’s fourth-best offensive line entering this season. The King logged career-bests in YPA (5.9) and success rate (58.8%), thanks to ranking third in YBCO/ATT (3.28), third in explosive run rate (6.8%), and eighth in MTF/ATT (.21) among 46 RBs with 100+ carries. Henry finished third in carries from inside the 5-yard line (18), and he led the league in inside the 5-yard line carry share at 90.9%. Baltimore is projected to be one of the best teams in the league once again, with a win total of 11.5, and he’s averaging 1.05 rushing TDs per game in 78 career victories compared to .41 TDs/game in 58 losses.
Bijan Robinson (Atl) most regular season rushing TDs (+1500, FanDuel)
Robinson finished just 2 rushing TDs off the league lead of 16 in rushing TDs, surging late in the season with 2 scores in each of Michael Penix’s three starts in Weeks 16-18. He’s looking to carry that late-season momentum with his second-year QB into 2025. Bijan started last season, averaging 13.4 carries per game with 1 rushing TD in his first five games before averaging 19.8 carries/game with 13 TDs in his final 12 contests. Robinson finished second in carries inside the 10-yard line with 34 last season, scoring on 12 of those opportunities, and he won’t have to worry about Penix stealing goal-line carries.
Bijan’s biggest issue is that he failed to create many long TDs to start his career. He’s scored from outside 13 yards just once on his first 18 rushing TDs, and he ranked 28th in explosive run rate (3.9%) last season. Robinson will be in the mix for the league lead if he breaks a few more long TD runs, and if the Falcons can score a little more after averaging 22.9 PPG (14th). We’re projecting Bijan for the third-most rushing TDs at 11.9, behind only Derrick Henry (13.3) and Jahmyr Gibbs (12.2).
Omarion Hampton (LAC) most regular season rushing TDs (+8000, BetMGM)
Harris is looking to surprise the NFL and lead the league in touchdowns as a rookie. He could be forced into a massive role immediately with Najee Harris’ playing future up in the air. Harris suffered what his agent called a “superficial” eye injury during a fireworks accident in early July, but the injury is worse than that after the Chargers placed him on the NFI list. Jim Harbaugh said on July 22 that he doesn’t know if Harris will be back for training camp, adding that the team is “praying for healing.” Harris is starting to walk laps around the field during practice, but Harbaugh said on Aug. 4 that there’s still no timeline for Harris’ return to practice.
Both RBs are new to Greg Roman’s offense, and Hampton is getting the early leg up on winning the job right out of the gates by running with the first-team offense. The Chargers finished sixth in pass rate over expectation (4.8%) from Week 7 through the end of the season, but they should return to a more run-heavy approach after drafting Hampton. The Chargers took a run-heavy approach inside the 5-yard line last season, ranking 22nd in PROE (-6.1%) despite their issues at running back. Scott DiBenedetto ranked the Chargers as the NFL’s 10th-best offensive line entering the season. Harris could prevent Hampton from garnering a bell-cow role if he’s able to contribute through his eye injury, but there’s real concern about Najee’s injury. Hampton has high-end upside if he completely takes over this backfield, which could now happen earlier than expected if Harris is limited early in the season.
