If you’re anything like me, you’ve been itching for some betting opportunities on NFL events since Super Bowl LVII concluded with the Chiefs defeating the Eagles two months ago. I’ve already broken down Super Bowl odds and win totals for the upcoming season, and I’ll continue to add to my Best Bets throughout the summer. The 2023 NFL Draft is quickly approaching on April 27-29, which is our one chance to bet on an actual NFL event before preseason action gets underway in August.
Unfortunately, most states, including my home state of Pennsylvania, don’t allow betting on the draft since it’s not an actual sporting competition. I may be making a trip to states like New Jersey or West Virginia, which allow wagers on NFL Draft props. Hopefully, you live in or near one of the states that are allowed to offer betting lines on this year’s Draft, or you have access to an off-shore account.
Since I don’t have access to draft lines in Pennsylvania, I’ll be using lines that are being offered in New Jersey and at off-shore sportsbooks for the purposes of this article. If you can, make sure to shop around for the best lines and odds if possible. There’s a lot more volatility in odds between sportsbooks with an event like the NFL Draft than you’ll see on game lines or player props during the season.
I plan on updating these NFL Draft Prop articles and my Best Bets multiple times before the end of April so check back throughout the month.
Note: We’re thrilled to offer rookie profiles from Brett Whitefield from our 2023 NFL Draft Prospect Guide. I’ve included a small piece of his analysis for each player listed below. Be sure to sign up for a FREE account to get Brett’s complete analysis for over 100+ players.
Article Updates Since Initial Publication on April 7
Bijan Robinson — “Draft Prop to Consider” updated on April 26
Jordan Addison — Player Profile and “Draft Prop to consider” added on April 20
Zay Flowers — Player Profile and “Draft Prop to consider” added on April 20
NFL Draft Wide Receiver Props
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Ohio State
Latest Mock Drafts
Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (March 21): 11th overall (Tennessee Titans), WR1
Peter Schrager, NFL Network (April 18): 15th overall (Green Bay Packers), WR1
Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 17): 20th overall (Seattle Seahawks), WR1
Todd McShay, ESPN (April 4): 11th overall (Tennessee Titans), WR1
Consensus Mock Drafts
NFL Mock Draft Database: 12th overall, Houston Texans (35%)
Grinding the Mocks Expected Draft Position: 14.4 (WR1)
Fantasy Points Prospect Guide Analysis
Every time I watch Smith-Njigba, I can’t help but think of Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown…JSN is a better version of him, in my opinion, especially as a YAC player who should thrive on designed touches. I am also cautious to fall into the trap many did with Justin Jefferson when they claimed he was a slot-only type receiver. In the end, he scores as a firm first-round player for me and is a top-5 player at his position. I believe his refined skill set offers teams an instant producer who is one of the most bust-proof players in the class.
Draft Props to Consider
First Wide Receiver Drafted: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (-400, BetMGM) — Smith-Njigba barely stepped on the field as a true junior because of a hamstring injury, but he’s still distanced himself from the other WRs at the top of this class in the pre-draft process. Jordan Addison opened as the favorite in late January before Quentin Johnson vaulted to the top, but JSN vaulted to the top after posting a 97th-percentile 20-yard shuttle (3.93 seconds) and a 96th-percentile three-cone drill (6.57). He easily led the likes of Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave in receiving production the last time the world really saw him in 2021, posting 95/1606/9 receiving in 13 contests for the Buckeyes.
JSN owns an expected draft position of 14.4 over at Grinding the Mocks, well ahead of the next closest WR, Zay Flowers, at 22.1. He’s easily the first WR selected at NFL Mock Draft Database, going off the board 12th overall to the Texans 35% of the time, and he’s seven spots ahead of Addison on their overall big board at #10. The Texans seem likely to target a WR on the first two days of the draft if they end up selecting Bryce Young or C.J. Stroud at #2 overall. GM Nick Caserio spent 20 years in New England where Julian Edelman became Tom Brady’s go-to WR. One of JSN’s top comps at MockDraftable was Edelman because of their elite 20-yard shuttle and three-cone drill performances at the combine. Both Todd McShay and Daniel Jeremiah also pegged the Titans as a potential landing spot with the 11th overall pick, and the Packers also need WR help at No. 13.
Jordan Addison, USC
Latest Mock Drafts
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (March 21): 20th overall (Seattle Seahawks), WR2
- Peter Schrager, NFL Network (April 18): 23rd overall (Minnesota Vikings), WR2
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 17): 25th overall (New York Giants), WR3
- Todd McShay, ESPN (April 4): 27th overall (Buffalo Bills), WR4
Consensus Mock Drafts
- NFL Mock Draft Database: 21st overall, Los Angeles Chargers (24%)
- Grinding the Mocks Expected Draft Position: 22.4 (WR3)
Fantasy Points Prospect Guide Analysis
Addison’s weaknesses are few and far between, thus making him one of the safest players in this draft class. He is a day-one starter in the NFL and is a player to build around on offense. Technically speaking, there isn’t a team he doesn’t make sense for. He scores as a first-round pick in my eyes and is my top-rated WR in this year’s class.
Draft Props to Consider
Draft Position - Jordan Addison: Under 23.5 (-115, BetOnline.ag, placed April 20) — Addison is a bit of a polarizing prospect despite his dominance at the college level. He owned per-game averages of 6.4 receptions, 98.7 receiving yards, and 1.0 receiving TDs over his final two college seasons at Pitt and USC. However, Addison struggled at the combine with a 4.49-second 40-yard dash and a 32” vertical jump while checking in at just 5’11”, 173 pounds. Addison actually opened as the favorite to be the first wide receiver selected in late January but his shaky athletic profile is why Jaxon Smith-Njigba overtook him as the favorite. Daniel Jeremiah still had Addison ranked as his 15th-best player and top WR in late April despite his rough showing in Indianapolis, and there are several WR-needy teams who could take him before the 24th pick.
The Chargers are one of those teams looking to upgrade at receiver, and WR coach Chris Beatty has a long-standing relationship with Addison. He was the first coach to offer him a full scholarship to Maryland when Addison was a high school freshman. He was set to become a Terrapin but he followed Beatty to Pitt in 2020, and Addison went on to win the Biletnikoff Award playing with Kenny Pickett after Beatty bolted to Los Angeles in 2021. Jerry DiPaola of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review wrote in 2020 that “no one outside his family knows Jordan Addison better than Chris Beatty,” so it wouldn’t be shocking to see Los Angeles go after him. If Addison slips past the Chargers at No. 21, he has two more great chances to be selected by the WR-needy Ravens and Vikings at 22-23 to make betting under his draft position appealing.
Zay Flowers, Boston College
Latest Mock Drafts
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (March 21): 21st overall (Los Angeles Chargers), WR3
- Peter Schrager, NFL Network (April 18): 25th overall (New York Giants), WR3
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 17): 22nd overall (Baltimore Ravens), WR2
- Todd McShay, ESPN (April 4): 20th overall (Seattle Seahawks), WR2
Consensus Mock Drafts
- NFL Mock Draft Database: 23rd overall, Minnesota Vikings (13%)
- Grinding the Mocks Expected Draft Position: 22.1 (WR2)
Fantasy Points Prospect Guide Analysis
Flowers is one of the most electric prospects in this class and immediately offers a team dynamic playmaking ability at all three levels of the field. The deficiencies he has as a player are easily overcome by his physical traits. I see glimpses of a more explosive Golden Tate when watching him. While his size dictates he will play in the slot a good bit, teams shouldn’t be shy about trying to ISO him on the outside. Flowers scores as a late first-round pick for me and is in my top-5 positionally.
Draft Props to Consider
Position of Minnesota Vikings First Drafted Player: Wide Receiver (+200, FanDuel, placed April 13) — The Ravens are slotted one spot ahead of the Vikings at 22nd overall, and their top-two needs are the same as Minnesota at cornerback and wide receiver. Baltimore’s need at WR isn’t nearly as pressing as it once was after signing Odell Beckham in mid-April, and cornerback is now the odds-on favorite to be the position the Ravens select first. Minnesota’s slightly bigger need is at cornerback after allowing the second-most passing YPG last season, but there’s a chance the position could be picked over a bit by the time they get on the clock. They could be forced to shift their focus to wide receiver to whoever remains on the board between Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Flowers, Jordan Addison, or Quentin Johnston.
Minnesota has the NFL’s best wide receiver in Justin Jefferson, but they have arguably the thinnest WR corps behind him after releasing Adam Thielen this off-season. As it currently stands, K.J. Osborn and Jalen Reagor would be starting next to Jefferson in 11 personnel, a grouping the Vikings used at a whopping 74% clip in Kevin O’Connell’s first season. This year’s WR class is losing some steam approaching the draft, which means one of the Vikings' top targets at the position has a better chance of being on the board at 23rd overall. Minnesota’s need in the secondary is more about positional depth, which they can address with multiple picks later in the draft. They need a strong running mate next to Jefferson at WR, which they should address with their first pick in the first round since they don’t have a second-round pick because of the T.J. Hockenson trade.
Quentin Johnston, TCU
Latest Mock Drafts
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (March 21): 27th overall (Buffalo Bills), WR4
- Peter Schrager, NFL Network (April 18): 31st overall (Kansas City Chiefs), WR5
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 17): 33rd overall (Houston Texans), WR4
- Todd McShay, ESPN (April 4): 22nd overall (Baltimore Ravens), WR3
Consensus Mock Drafts
- NFL Mock Draft Database: 22nd overall, Minnesota Vikings (12%)
- Grinding the Mocks Expected Draft Position: 24.3 (WR4)
Fantasy Points Prospect Guide Analysis
If I were strictly a traits scout, Johnston would easily be the top WR in the draft class. He has everything you could covet from a physical standpoint, plus a good bit of alignment versatility. His ability in the gadget/screen game also gives him a comfortable path to playing time as he transitions to the NFL. With that said, there are enough concerns to foresee a steep learning curve to becoming a full-time player, especially considering the likely draft capital investment it will take to acquire him. His lack of production, in contrast to his skill summary, also needs explaining. Christian Watson is a great comparison, in my opinion, as very similar players in both skills and deficiencies.
Draft Props to Consider
Team to Draft Quentin Johnston: New York Giants (+1000, FanDuel) — Johnston stands out at the top of the WR class as the lone prototypical X receiver with his combination of size (6’3”, 208 pounds) and freaky length (82” wingspan). The problem is he plays like the other smaller receivers in this class, failing to use his size to his advantage in contested catch situations. He also never truly dominated, posting a solid 60/1069/6 receiving (17.8 YPR) in 14 contests during the Horned Frogs’ run to the CFP National Championship last season. Johnston has lost some steam in the pre-draft process despite impressive vertical (40.5”) and broad jumps (11’2”). He peaked before February with an expected draft position in the 11-12 pick range, but he’s slipped since then with his EDP now sitting at 24.3 (per Grinding the Mocks).
A team may fall in love with Johnston’s traits before the Giants are on the clock, but the league is trending toward coveting more versatile WRs. New York is one team that desperately needs some size on the perimeter with a roster chock full of slot types like Wan’Dale Robinson, Sterling Shepard, Jamison Crowder, and Parris Campbell. The Giants are doing their homework on all of the top WRs, including notably having dinner with the likes of Johnston, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jordan Addison, and Zay Flowers. Johnston’s dinner with the Giants before his pro day was at least his second meeting with the Giants after interviewing with them at the combine. Flowers, JSN and Addison are the three most popular selections for the Giants at NFL Mock Draft Database, so it’s not a stretch that the Giants would jump all over Johnston if he continues to slide down draft boards.
NFL Draft Running Back Props
Bijan Robinson, Texas
Latest Mock Drafts
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (March 21): 14th overall (New England Patriots), RB1
- Peter Schrager, NFL Network (April 18): 10th overall (Philadelphia Eagles), RB1
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 17): 16th overall (Washington Commanders), RB1
- Todd McShay, ESPN (April 4): 18th overall (Detroit Lions), RB1
Consensus Mock Drafts
- NFL Mock Draft Database: Eighth overall, Atlanta Falcons (25%)
- Grinding the Mocks Expected Draft Position: 15.6 (RB1)
Fantasy Points Prospect Guide Analysis
Robinson is an elite prospect and is my top-rated running back prospect in this class. I would argue he is one of the best running back prospects of the past decade, with very few flaws in his game. Though I took into account the depressed position value of running backs, he still scored as a top-10 player for me overall and could be selected as such come draft day.
Draft Props to Consider
Team to Draft Bijan Robinson: Houston Texans (+650, FanDuel) — I’ve updated Bijan’s “Draft Prop to Consider” multiple times so you can tell I don’t have a great feel for where Robinson will land in the first round. I could see him going as early as the eighth overall pick to the Falcons all the way to the 26th overall selection to the Cowboys. Atlanta and Philadelphia at No. 10 overall are the two most likely spots for Bijan to go off the board before the Texans are on the clock for the second time, and I just don’t see Atlanta or Philly pulling the trigger to take Robinson. The Falcons have much more pressing needs at EDGE, cornerback, wide receiver, and safety than to use a luxury pick on Robinson. The Eagles are certainly in a better spot to use a luxury pick on Bijan, especially since running back is one of their biggest needs. However, GM Howie Roseman has never selected a running back in the first round because it’s a position he doesn’t value highly, and the rest of the league is coming around to that same viewpoint. Our guy Joe Dolan is certainly hoping Roseman continues to pass on running backs at the top of the draft or else he could have some future medical bills coming his way.
Atlanta or Philadelphia would be excellent fantasy landing spots for Bijan, but I have the feeling that it might be a fantasy that a running back goes to either of those teams. Houston is a wild card team that could be in the mix for Bijan, which would be a less-than-ideal fantasy landing spot since they already have 2022 rookie RB standout Dameon Pierce. HC DeMeco Ryan and OC Bobby Slowik have roots in Kyle Shanahan’s tree and they’d love to build around the running game and a back like Robinson. The Texans could even trade back from No. 2 if they truly aren’t enamored with any of the quarterbacks after Bryce Young, which means they could get a crack at Robinson before the 12th overall pick. It doesn’t hurt that Robinson would instantly become the face of a franchise that’s alienated its fans since the Deshaun Watson fiasco.
Jahmyr Gibbs, Alabama
Latest Mock Drafts
Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (March 21): Not selected in the first round
Peter Schrager, NFL Network (April 18): 26th overall (Dallas Cowboys), RB2
Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 17): 34th overall (Arizona Cardinals), RB2
Todd McShay, ESPN (April 4): 34th overall (Arizona Cardinals), RB2
Consensus Mock Drafts
NFL Mock Draft Database: 28th overall, Cincinnati Bengals (7%)
Grinding the Mocks Expected Draft Position: 33.8 (RB2)
Fantasy Points Prospect Guide Analysis
Ultimately there is just too much ability in Gibbs’ body to allow his deficiencies to become too much of a negative for me. His pass-game prowess is a math changer for offensive coordinators who know how to utilize his skill set. He scores as a solid Day-2 prospect whom I would be willing to draft sometime in the 2nd round.
Draft Props to Consider
Team to Draft Jahmyr Gibbs: Seattle Seahawks (+10000, DraftKings, Placed April 5) — Seattle has a surplus of early picks and a screaming need for RB depth with Rashaad Penny and Travis Homer departing in free agency, which left just DeeJay Dallas and Darwin Thompson behind KWIII — Thompson has since been released. Gibbs hadn’t received much first-round buzz until just before the draft with the running back position being devalued by the NFL, but the Seahawks are one organization that hasn’t been afraid to target running backs early in the draft.
They selected both Kenneth Walker (2022) and Rashaad Penny (2018) inside the top 41 picks over the last six years, and Seattle owns the 20th, 37th, and 52nd overall selections in 2023. Both Walker and Penny ran blistering 40-yard dashes for their sizes — 4.38 and 4.46 seconds, respectively — and Gibbs blazed a 4.36-second time at the combine. Gibbs projects to be a strong complement to KWIII because of his game-changing ability in the passing game, and he’s a solid insurance plan as a runner if Walker would miss time. Seattle wouldn’t be the best fantasy landing spot for Gibbs, but the Seahawks make a ton of sense for a team that’s extremely thin behind KWIII and has a surplus of early picks. It’s unlikely to happen, but Seattle’s odds are just too long to ignore at +10000.
Brolley’s Best Bets
Draft Position - Jordan Addison: Under 23.5 (-115, BetOnline.ag). Risk 1.5 units to win one unit. Placed on April 20.
Position of Minnesota Vikings First Drafted Player: Wide Receiver (+200, FanDuel). Risk one unit to win two units. Placed April 13.
Team to Draft Jahmyr Gibbs: Seattle Seahawks (+10000, DraftKings). Risk .5 units to win 50 units. Placed on April 5.
