If you’re anything like me, you’ve been itching for some betting opportunities on NFL events since Super Bowl LVII concluded with the Chiefs defeating the Eagles two months ago. I’ve already broken down Super Bowl odds and win totals for the upcoming season, and I’ll continue to add to my Best Bets throughout the summer. The 2023 NFL Draft is quickly approaching on April 27-29, which is our one chance to bet on an actual NFL event before preseason action gets underway in August.
Unfortunately, most states, including my home state of Pennsylvania, don’t allow betting on the draft since it’s not an actual sporting competition. I may be making a trip to states like New Jersey or West Virginia, which allow wagers on NFL Draft props. Hopefully, you live in or near one of the states that are allowed to offer betting lines on this year’s draft, or you have access to an off-shore account.
Since I don’t have access to draft lines in Pennsylvania, I’ll be using lines that are being offered in New Jersey and at off-shore sportsbooks for the purposes of this article. If you can, make sure to shop around for the best lines and odds if possible. There’s a lot more volatility in odds between sportsbooks with an event like the NFL Draft than you’ll see on game lines or player props during the season.
I plan on updating these NFL Draft Prop articles and my Best Bets multiple times before the end of April so check back throughout the month.
Note: We’re thrilled to offer rookie profiles from Brett Whitefield from our 2023 NFL Draft Prospect Guide. I’ve included a small piece of his analysis for each player listed below. Be sure to sign up for a FREE account to get Brett’s complete analysis for over 100+ players.
Article Updates Since Initial Publication on April 13
- New England Patriots — “Draft prop to Consider” updated on April 21.
NFL Draft Team Selection Props
Seattle Seahawks Part I
Latest Mock Drafts
Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (March 21): Jalen Carter, DT (fifth overall)
Peter Schrager, NFL Network (April 18): Anthony Richardson, QB (fifth overall)
Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 17): Tyree Wilson, EDGE (fifth overall)
Todd McShay, ESPN (April 4): Jalen Carter, DT (fifth overall)
Consensus Mock Drafts
- NFL Mock Draft Database: Jalen Carter, DT (fifth overall)
Draft Props to Consider
Team to Draft Jalen Carter: Seattle Seahawks (+500, FanDuel, placed April 12) — Carter opened this winter as the favorite to be the first defensive player drafted. He’s fallen behind Will Anderson since then after being charged with reckless driving and racing in connection with a crash that killed a Georgia teammate and a staff member just days after their national championship victory. Many still consider Carter to be the best prospect in this year’s entire draft class based purely on his performance at Georgia. His impressive tape is also why Carter’s expected draft position is on a significant rise to 5.6 in the last few weeks after initially plummeting when news of his arrest first came out at the combine (per Griding the Mocks). The Seahawks seem like the earliest spot where Carter will go off the board, and they certainly need to beef up their front seven after getting pummeled for the third-most rushing YPG last season. Drafting Carter would create a formidable tackle duo with recently signed Dre’Mont Jones.
The Seahawks are the most likely landing spot for Carter with 35% of mock drafts projecting Carter to the Pacific Northwest (per NFL Mock Draft Database). His +500 odds imply just a 16.7% chance the Seahawks select him so this seems like a no-brainer wager at his current odds. The Seahawks could be interested in either Antony Richardson or Will Levis if they fall to the fifth overall pick. They’re in a position to gamble on one of the young QBs with four picks in the first two rounds, but those extra selections also mean they could roll the dice on potentially the best player in the draft despite Carter’s character concerns. He could be an immediate difference maker for a team that has a chance to contend in a division and a conference that are both up for grabs. It’s also not like Pete Carroll is getting any younger at 72 years old this season. Carter and the Seahawks make too much sense together to pass up on this big plus price.
Houston Texans
Latest Mock Drafts
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (March 21): C.J. Stroud, QB (second overall); Myles Murphy, EDGE (12th)
- Peter Schrager, NFL Network (April 18): Tyree Wilson, EDGE (second overall); Will Levis, QB (12th)
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 17): C.J. Stroud, QB (second overall); Myles Murphy, EDGE (12th)
- Todd McShay, ESPN (April 4): Bryce Young, QB (second overall); Nolan Smith, EDGE (12th)
Consensus Mock Drafts
- NFL Mock Draft Database: C.J. Stroud, QB (second overall); Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR (12th)
Draft Props to Consider
Team to Draft Bijan Robinson: Houston Texans (+650, FanDuel) — I’ve updated Bijan’s “Draft Prop to Consider” multiple times so you can tell I don’t have a great feel for where Robinson will land in the first round. I could see him going as early as the eighth overall pick to the Falcons all the way to the 26th overall selection to the Cowboys. Atlanta and Philadelphia at No. 10 overall are the two most likely spots for Bijan to go off the board before the Texans are on the clock for the second time, and I just don’t see Atlanta or Philly pulling the trigger to take Robinson. The Falcons have much more pressing needs at EDGE, cornerback, wide receiver, and safety than to use a luxury pick on Robinson. The Eagles are certainly in a better spot to use a luxury pick on Bijan, especially since running back is one of their biggest needs. However, GM Howie Roseman has never selected a running back in the first round because it’s a position he doesn’t value highly, and the rest of the league is coming around to that same viewpoint. Our guy Joe Dolan is certainly hoping Roseman continues to pass on running backs at the top of the draft or else he could have some future medical bills coming his way.
Atlanta or Philadelphia would be excellent fantasy landing spots for Bijan, but I have the feeling that it might be a fantasy that a running back goes to either of those teams. Houston is a wild card team that could be in the mix for Bijan, which would be a less-than-ideal fantasy landing spot since they already have 2022 rookie RB standout Dameon Pierce. HC DeMeco Ryan and OC Bobby Slowik have roots in Kyle Shanahan’s tree and they’d love to build around the running game and a back like Robinson. The Texans could even trade back from No. 2 if they truly aren’t enamored with any of the quarterbacks after Bryce Young, which means they could get a crack at Robinson before the 12th overall pick. It doesn’t hurt that Robinson would instantly become the face of a franchise that’s alienated its fans since the Deshaun Watson fiasco.
New England Patriots
Latest Mock Drafts
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (March 21): Bijan Robinson, RB (14th overall)
- Peter Schrager, NFL Network (April 18): Devon Witherspoon, CB (14th overall)
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 17): Broderick Jones, OL (10th overall)
- Todd McShay, ESPN (April 4): Darnell Wright, OT (19th overall)
Consensus Mock Drafts
- NFL Mock Draft Database: Broderick Jones, OT (14th overall)
Draft Props to Consider
Position of New England Patriots First Drafted Player: Quarterback (+2000, FanDuel, placed April 21) — Levis is picking up steam late in the pre-draft process, which is corresponding with C.J. Stroud’s slide after being the favorite to go No. 1 overall after the Panthers acquired the top pick in March. Levis went from an expected draft position of 5.9 in early March to 11.4 in early April (per Grinding the Mocks), but he’s charging back up boards to 8.2 days before the draft. Levis is now in a dead heat to go second overall with Will Anderson and Tyree Wilson. Levis had a dreadful senior season, posting 19 TD passes to 10 INTs and absorbing so many sacks that he finished with negative rushing yards. He’ll also turn 24 years old in June after failing to beat out Sean Clifford at the start of his college career at Penn State. Nevertheless, he’s checking a lot of boxes because of his size (6’44”, 229 pounds), athleticism, arm strength, and his background in a pro-style offense at Kentucky.
The Texans appear lukewarm about taking Levis or one of the other top quarterback prospects with the second overall pick, and GM Nick Caserio said they’re listening to offers for the pick. I believe one of those teams talking to the Texans is the Patriots, Caserio’s former employer (and potentially future employer). Let’s connect some recent dots here. Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio reported in early April that “[Bill] Belichick shopped [Mac] Jones to multiple teams.” The Athletic’s Chad Graff also wrote that the rift between Bill Belichick and Mac Jones is real even if it was a stretch for Florio to say Belichick is shopping Jones. The Patriots then squeezed Levis in for a visit on the last possible day to do it on April 19. It’s notable that HC Demeco Ryans and OC Bobby Slowik worked on the 49ers coaching staff that met with and studied Jones a ton during the 2021 draft process before ultimately selecting Trey Lance with the third overall pick. The Texans could land Mac, No. 14, and additional picks over the next few years if the Texans truly don’t love any of the 2023 quarterbacks. The Patriots could elect to move up to another spot in the draft to select a quarterback or one could fall to them in the mid-first round like Mac did in 2021 at No. 15. This could all be a big ploy by Belichick to light a fire under Mac’s butt for next season, but there’s just too much smoke here to pass on the long-shot odds that the Patriots select a quarterback with their first pick.
Seattle Seahawks Part II
Latest Mock Drafts
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (March 21): Jordan Addison, WR (20th overall)
- Peter Schrager, NFL Network (April 18): Lukas Van Ness, EDGE (20th overall)
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 17): Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR (20th overall); Hendon Hooker, QB (37th); Steve Avila, OG (52nd)
- Todd McShay, ESPN (April 4): Zay Flowers, WR (20th overall); Keion White, OLB (37th); Steve Avila, OL (52nd)
Consensus Mock Drafts
- NFL Mock Draft Database: Myles Murphy, EDGE (20th overall); Joe Tippman, OL (37th); Julius Brents, CB (52nd)
Draft Props to Consider
Team to Draft Jahmyr Gibbs: Seattle Seahawks (+10000, DraftKings, Placed April 5) — Seattle has a surplus of early picks and a screaming need for RB depth with Rashaad Penny and Travis Homer departing in free agency, which left just DeeJay Dallas and Darwin Thompson behind KWIII — Thompson has since been released. Gibbs hadn’t received much first-round buzz until just before the draft with the running back position being devalued by the NFL, but the Seahawks are one organization that hasn’t been afraid to target running backs early in the draft.
They selected both Kenneth Walker (2022) and Rashaad Penny (2018) inside the top 41 picks over the last six years, and Seattle owns the 20th, 37th, and 52nd overall selections in 2023. Both Walker and Penny ran blistering 40-yard dashes for their sizes — 4.38 and 4.46 seconds, respectively — and Gibbs blazed a 4.36-second time at the combine. Gibbs projects to be a strong complement to KWIII because of his game-changing ability in the passing game, and he’s a solid insurance plan as a runner if Walker would miss time. Seattle wouldn’t be the best fantasy landing spot for Gibbs, but the Seahawks make a ton of sense for a team that’s extremely thin behind KWIII and has a surplus of early picks. It’s unlikely to happen, but Seattle’s odds are just too long to ignore at +10000.
Minnesota Vikings
Latest Mock Drafts
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (March 21): Hendon Hooker, QB (23rd overall)
- Peter Schrager, NFL Network (April 18): Jordan Addison, WR (23rd overall)
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 17): Deonte Banks, CB (23rd overall)
- Todd McShay, ESPN (April 4): Hendon Hooker, QB (23rd overall)
Consensus Mock Drafts
- NFL Mock Draft Database: Zay Flowers, WR (23rd overall)
Draft Props to Consider
Position of Minnesota Vikings First Drafted Player: Wide Receiver (+200, FanDuel, placed April 13) — The Ravens are slotted one spot ahead of the Vikings at 22nd overall, and their top-two needs are the same as Minnesota at cornerback and wide receiver. Baltimore’s need at WR isn’t nearly as pressing as it once was after signing Odell Beckham in mid-April, and cornerback is now the odds-on favorite to be the position the Ravens select first. Minnesota’s slightly bigger need is at cornerback after allowing the second-most passing YPG last season, but there’s a chance the position could be picked over a bit by the time they get on the clock. They could be forced to shift their focus to wide receiver to whoever remains on the board between Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Flowers, Jordan Addison, or Quentin Johnston.
Minnesota has the NFL’s best wide receiver in Justin Jefferson, but they have arguably the thinnest WR corps behind him after releasing Adam Thielen this off-season. As it currently stands, K.J. Osborn and Jalen Reagor would be starting next to Jefferson in 11 personnel, a grouping the Vikings used at a whopping 74% clip in Kevin O’Connell’s first season. This year’s WR class is losing some steam approaching the draft, which means one of the Vikings' top targets at the position has a better chance of being on the board at 23rd overall. Minnesota’s need in the secondary is more about positional depth, which they can address with multiple picks later in the draft. They need a strong running mate next to Jefferson at WR, which they should address with their first pick in the first round since they don’t have a second-round pick because of the T.J. Hockenson trade.
New York Giants
Latest Mock Drafts
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (March 21): Joe Tippman, OL (25th overall)
- Peter Schrager, NFL Network (April 18): Zay Flowers, WR (25th overall)
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 17): Jordan Addison, WR (25th overall)
- Todd McShay, ESPN (April 4): Emmanuel Forbes, CB (25th overall)
Consensus Mock Drafts
- NFL Mock Draft Database: John Michael Schmitz, OL (25th overall)
Draft Props to Consider
Team to Draft Quentin Johnston: New York Giants (+1000, FanDuel) — Johnston stands out at the top of the WR class as the lone prototypical X receiver with his combination of size (6’3”, 208 pounds) and freaky length (82” wingspan). The problem is he plays like the other smaller receivers in this class, failing to use his size to his advantage in contested catch situations. He also never truly dominated, posting a solid 60/1069/6 receiving (17.8 YPR) in 14 contests during the Horned Frogs’ run to the CFP National Championship last season. Johnston has lost some steam in the pre-draft process despite impressive vertical (40.5”) and broad jumps (11’2”). He peaked before February with an expected draft position in the 11-12 pick range, but he’s slipped since then with his EDP now sitting at 24.3 (per Grinding the Mocks).
A team may fall in love with Johnston’s traits before the Giants are on the clock, but the league is trending toward coveting more versatile WRs. New York is one team that desperately needs some size on the perimeter with a roster chock full of slot types like Wan’Dale Robinson, Sterling Shepard, Jamison Crowder, and Parris Campbell. The Giants are doing their homework on all of the top WRs, including notably having dinner with the likes of Johnston, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jordan Addison, and Zay Flowers. Johnston’s dinner with the Giants before his pro day was at least his second meeting with the Giants after interviewing with them at the combine. Flowers, JSN and Addison are the three most popular selections for the Giants at NFL Mock Draft Database, so it’s not a stretch that the Giants would jump all over Johnston if he continues to slide down draft boards.
Cincinnati Bengals
Latest Mock Drafts
- Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (March 21): Darnell Wright, OT (28th overall)
- Peter Schrager, NFL Network (April 18): Darnell Washington, TE (28th overall)
- Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 17): Adetomiwa Adebawore, DT (28th overall)
- Todd McShay, ESPN (April 4): Deonte Banks, CB (28th overall)
Consensus Mock Drafts
- NFL Mock Draft Database: Jahmyr Gibbs, RB (28th overall)
Draft Props to Consider
Cincinnati Bengals First Drafted Position: Defensive Back (+280, Caesars, Placed April 12) — Sportsbooks opened the tight end position as the favorite to be Cincinnati’s first selection in the draft. It makes sense with just the injury-prone Irv Smith at the top of the depth chart, who the Bengals signed as a one-year option this off-season. The Bengals have been content to piece together the tight end spot with one-year deals to Smith and Hayden Hurst the last two off-seasons. This year’s TE class is the deepest the league has seen in recent years, with Dane Brugler ranking six TEs among his top 64 players. You have to go all the way back to 1974 to the last time 6+ TEs were selected in the first two rounds. The Bengals could theoretically pass on a Dalton Kincaid or Michael Mayer late in the first round (if they’re even available at that point) and still draft players like Luke Musgrave, Tucker Kraft, or Sam LaPorta at 60th overall.
The Bengals took a couple of big hits at safety with Jessie Bates and Vonn Bell leaving in free agency, and safety Brian Branch could be in the mix for the Bengals at 28th overall. At cornerback, Eli Apple remains unsigned, and Chidobe Awuzie is recovering from an ACL tear last November. Deonte Banks, Emmanuel Forbes, Kelee Ringo, and D.J. Turner are among the CBs who could be available in the late first round. Cincinnati’s ultimate goal moving forward is to get past Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in January. Upgrading their secondary is going to help them accomplish that goal more than drafting a tight end to be the #3 or #4 option for Joe Burrow.
Brolley’s Best Bets
Position of New England Patriots First Drafted Player: Quarterback (+2000, FanDuel). Risk one unit to win 20 units. Placed April 21.
Position of Minnesota Vikings First Drafted Player: Wide Receiver (+200, FanDuel). Risk one unit to win two units. Placed April 13.
Cincinnati Bengals First Drafted Position: Defensive Back (+280, Caesars). Risk one unit to win 2.8 units. Placed April 12
Team to Draft Jalen Carter: Seattle Seahawks (+500, FanDuel). Risk one unit to win five units. Placed April 12.
Team to Draft Jahmyr Gibbs: Seattle Seahawks (+10000, DraftKings). Risk .5 units to win 50 units. Placed April 5.
