My goal for this article, once the practice week concludes, is to offer a comprehensive look at the weekend matchups in an easy-to-consume 10-minute read.
PRE-GAME WEATHER/INACTIVE NOTES
3:15pm: CB Denzel Ward is active, so no big break for the Texans, who will have WRs Brown and Woods. I like Woods as a sneaky contributor in this one.
They have moved the Pit-Buf game to Monday afternoon, when it will be snowing but the winds will be down below 20 MPH, so I still feel good about my props below from that game.
Note: I ranked/prioritized these props over in my Best Bets article.
Cleveland Browns at Houston Texans, 4:30 p.m. Saturday
Fantasy Injuries:
Browns: Cedric Tillman was ruled out, so David Bell will have to step up a notch on the depth chart.
Texans: WR Noah Brown got in a limited practice on Thursday, so he may play, but he’s been unable to finish games lately. Robert Woods was limited two
Browns Analysis
These teams combined for 58 points three weeks ago in Houston, yet the total in the game is only 44, so the books aren’t exactly thinking that we’ll see major fireworks, and I can see that as I’ve looked closer into this game.
Things look good for the red-hot Joe Flacco, who is very comfortable in the playoffs because he likes how 100% of the attention is on one game, which may explain how Joe’s so cool in the postseason. However, the more I look at this matchup, the more I think things could get a little rocky for Flacco. The Browns won’t likely run the ball well, and 22% of his throws have been off-target (3rd-highest rate), so we can’t assume he’s going to crush it second time around after he hit Houston for 368/3 passing on 42 attempts three weeks ago. They were down rookie DE Will Anderson in that first game, which was a big loss. Still, he is on fire and he’s a streaky player, and 40+ attempts are coming again. Flacco averages 8.03 YPA and 0.56 FP/DB vs two-high defenses, and I don’t see the Texans as being good enough on defense to slow Flacco down, so I still expect him to finish with right around 300/1-2/1 at least.
It wasn’t a fantastic schematic matchup for Amari Cooper a few weeks ago in Houston, but I mentioned in this space that week how Cooper was crushing it with Flacco and was un-benchable, and he’s now put up 25/485/3 receiving on 42 targets for 92.5 FP in his first 14 quarters of action with Flacco after that 265-yard performance. They may opt to get top CB Derek Stingley on him more, but Cooper crushed their zone-heavy scheme last time and has team-bests in YPRR (2.50) and target share (21.1%) on 391 routes against zone this year. In addition, over their last 10 games, Houston has played two-high safety coverage 62% of the time (3rd-highest rate), and Cooper leads them in first-read targets (29% share) with an excellent 2.99 yards per route run. If they end up playing more one-high safety looks, Cooper is rolling with a 33% first-read target share with an insane 4.34 YPRR against one-high coverages. He should easily compile 5/80 at least in this one, so he’s mostly likely a 20+ FP guy if he scores.
Cooper will certainly be a marked man, as will their TE, got them for a big play TD back in Week 16, so Flacco will likely need another receiver to step up, and while he got just 2/19 receiving on 4 targets back in Week 16 as Cooped bogarted all the production, Elijah Moore also balled out with 5/61/1 receiving despite playing only 53% of the snaps after getting forced to the sidelines due to a concussion in Week 17. He actually played six snaps last week for some reason, so he’s fine. It’s not the best schematic matchup for him, but I can see him shaking free for 4-5 grabs, often inside against veteran Desmond King, but he may also line up outside more with Cedric Tillman out.
The Texans are giving up the fourth-most YPRR (2.25) and the second-most YPR (14.9) to outside receivers, so there should be some production to be had from a secondary Browns wideout with Cedric Tillman out. I’d have to go with David Bell, who should be feeling it after putting up 4/68/2 last week. Other than their two backup TEs, they’re very thin at receiver and need Bell to step up, and he’s the type of rock solid guy who’s dependable. He usually plays inside, which is fine for this low-end recommendation because Houston is allowing 7.7 receptions per game to slot wideouts (tied for 5th-most).
The Texans have been a good TE matchup all year, and they’re giving up the fifth-most receiving YPG (57.4) and the second-most receptions (5.9) to TEs, and David Njoku got them for 6/44/1 receiving on 9 targets back in Week 16. His production drops a little bit (1.84 YPRR) against one-high looks, but he got them for a big play TD three weeks ago, and he now has 6+ catches and 16.4+ FP in four straight games, and he averages a solid 1.84 YPRR on a 20.5% target share on 379 routes against zone coverage.
He’s usually a good bet to hit double-digit carries, and Jerome Ford has 2 or more targets in eight straight games and 2 or more catches in 7 of those 8, so he’s a solid bet for around 15 touches/opportunities. Unfortunately, the Texans give up the fewest adjusted yards before contact per attempt (.96) and the sixth-fewest rushing YPG (76.8) to RBs, and Ford could only muster 15/25 rushing in this matchup three weeks ago. But he did score in that game, and he crushed in Week 17 with 2/57/2 receiving, plus the Colts were able to run it well against Houston last week with Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss (36/218/1 rushing).
As for Kareem Hunt, he had a solid 10/31/1 rushing in Week 17 and also in this matchup in Week 16, but with only 25 total yards receiving in his last seven games, he’s a completely TD-dependent option and he’s also capable of scoring and still coming up small.
Texans Analysis
The Browns are allowing the second-fewest passing yards (185.2) and have the second-highest pressure rate (39.7%), so it’s not the easiest matchup for C.J. Stroud, who is also much better against zone (Browns are man-heavy). However, it’s a good schematic matchup otherwise, and Stroud ranks 2nd in YPA (9.0) and 5th in fantasy points per dropback (0.51) against single-high coverage, which Cleveland runs at the league’s highest rate (67%). CB Denzel Ward suffered a knee injury in practice on Thursday, so his status is in doubt. It would be a nice boost for Houston if he missed the game, and it also looks like Noah Brown has a chance to play, at least. Stroud’s going to get his and could easily come through nicely, but I can’t say I particularly like him this week compared to the field.
The one thing that worries me is that Nico Collins should be a marked man this week, and the Browns have a lot of talent at CB and held him to just 4/18/1 receiving on 6 targets without Stroud against the Browns in Week 16. But he did score in the game, and the data points look good. Collins is averaging 3.52 YPRR on a 20.2% target share on 71 routes against man coverage, which the Browns run at the fourth-highest rate. Collins is averaging an elite 3.85 yards per route run against single-high coverage, which Cleveland runs at the league’s highest rate (67%), so the safe bet is that he continues to shred it.
I do not think we can trust any of the secondary Texans wideouts with Noah Brown (back) and Robert Woods (hip) both questionable. Brown’s especially risky. The data looked good for Xavier Hutchinson last week, but he and John Metchie combined for a piddly 2/11 receiving on 6 targets. If Denzel Ward is out, then they’d likely play the rock solid Greg Newsome outside, so Woods would benefit there, and he is a veteran Stroud may lean on. If I’m going with anyone at WR other than Collins, it’s Woods, FWIW.
Dalton Schultz has a 24.6% target share in his games without Tank Dell, and that could rise in a tougher matchup this week. He has just 7/61 receiving on 11 targets the last two weeks with Stroud back in the lineup, and it’s not a good schematic matchup. Schultz sits at a poor 1.00 YPRR on a 14.4% target share on 74 routes against man coverage, but he got it done with TE-friendly Case Keenum (and Davis Mills) at QB in Week 16 with 8/61 receiving on 11 targets. I suspect he’ll have to score to come through, but he might be looking at another 10+ targets in this one.
You cannot count on Devin Singletary in the passing game, and I’m a little slow on the uptake with this but the man has topped 13 receiving yards just three times this season. However, he’s averaging 2,5 grabs a game in his last two games in this matchup (3/19 in Week 16) and they are giving up just under 7 catches a game to RBs, so I do have him with 3 catches, which helps because the Browns are giving up the second-fewest adjusted yards before contact per attempt (1.21), and they gave up the 3rd-lowest success rate (43%) on a per carry basis from Weeks 9-18.
Looking better than usual: Amari Cooper, Joe Flacco, Nico Collins
Looking worse than usual: None of note.
Reach plays: David Bell, Robert Woods
Prop Picks:
Bad odds, FYI, but I’m like 6-0 on bad odds bets this year.
Over 1.5 TD passes.
Miami Dolphins at Kansas City Chiefs, 8 p.m., Sat.
Fantasy Injuries:
Dolphins: They will be down CB Xavien Howard again, good news for KC. S Jevon Holland (knees) did not practice all week and is a GTD, so even if he goes he’s less than 100%. Raheem Mostert, DeVon Achane, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Jalen Ramsey were all limited all week, so they should all play. Of course, they’ver lost their top two pass rushers over the last two weeks.
Chiefs: They are extremely healthy heading into this one. LT Donovan Smith has been out, but he’s back.
Dolphins Analysis
We’ve got a major problem with Tua Tagovailoa in terms of the cold weather. In four pro games with a temperature of under 45 degrees, Tua is 0-4 with a 55.5% completion rate with 4 TDs and 5 INTs. That’s under 45 degrees, and it could be five degrees in this one. It is at least a good schematic matchup, at least, since KC plays a lot of two-high safety coverages, including 74% of the time in this matchup earlier this year, and Tua ranks third in YPA (7.9) and passer rating (101.7) against two-high safety looks. Of course, in addition to the weather issues, his skill player group is very banged up, and he posted only 193/1 passing in Week 9 against the Chiefs, who give up the fourth-fewest passing YPG (197.2) and the sixth-fewest FPG (15.2) to QBs. Tua’s failed to hit 20+ FP in nine straight games, so I’m surely not predicting it in this one. It could get ugly if DC Steve Spagnuolo is feeling it and he breaks Miami’s offense down with pressures and various looks.
Tyreek Hill posted a poor 8/62 receiving on 10 targets against the Chiefs in early November, which wasn’t a surprise, since it’s a tough schematic matchup with KC playing the highest rate of two-high safety coverage (67.7%). Hill is averaging 3.56 YPRR against the coverage, so he crushes it, but he’s at 4.81 YPRR when facing one-high safety coverages, so his efficiency drops 35% against two-high safety coverage. There’s also the L'Jarius Sneed factor, which is big because he’s shutting down top receivers, and the Chiefs didn’t allow a WR to reach 45+ receiving yards against them in the final five weeks. Clearly, KC knows him well, and he’s not looking as good as usual, which means 100 yards may not be a lock.
The matchup is very good for Jaylen Waddle schematically, but he’s a tough call due to his ankle injury, and the freezing weather doesn’t help. Back in that Week 9 matchup, KC used Cover-4 and Cover-6 zones on 47.1% of the Dolphins pass plays, and Waddle usually crushes those two-high safety zone looks. Waddle had only 3/42 receiving on six targets in that first matchup, but he is leading Tyreek in targets per route run (0.38 to 0.33) and yards per route run (4.48 to 3.05) when facing Cover-4 or Cover-6 zone. He’d be a slam-dunk fantasy play in normal temps and with a better ankle, but he is still looking a little better than usual.
I’ve been winning Durham Smythe props lately, and he now has 3+ catches and 30+ yards in four straight games with 15/172 receiving in Weeks 15-18. Basically, teams are daring them to throw him the ball in the middle of the field. Smythe had only 3/17 receiving when these teams squared off in early November, but that’s not bad because his production has picked up significantly. They’re giving up a healthy 6.8/65 receiving to TEs in their last four, so I like Smythe’s props again this week at the very least.
Miami’s only chance to hang in this game is to run the ball often and with success, and Kansas City over the final 10 weeks of the season, allowed 4.28 YPC (12th-most) and a 51.1% success rate on those carries (9th-highest). Raheem Mostert had a strong 12/85/1 rushing without a catch with Devon Achane out against the Chiefs in Week 9, but while Mostert is the lead RB in the red-zone and leads Achane in carries 20 to 10, the Chiefs are giving the fourth-fewest rushing TDs per game (.4) to RBs, which is a concern for Mostert, who gets fewer opportunities in the passing game than Achane (48% route share vs. 35% for Mostert). I’ll lean slightly positive on Mostert, since I’m not convinced the Chiefs are going to run away on the scoreboard.
Chiefs Analysis
At this point, Patrick Mahomes needs some outside help if he’s to post even respectable numbers, and he gets it in this one with Miami’s various injuries, specifically at pass rusher. Mahomes failed to hit 18+ FP in five straight games and in eight of his last nine games, which is incredible, and I’m not sure he gets there in this one against DC Vic Fangio’s zone-heavy defense. Against the various zone looks he’ll see a lot of (Cover-3, Cover-4, and Cover-6), Mahomes is averaging 6.8 YPA, he has an 87.9 passer rating with a pathetic 5.8-yard average depth of target. This includes the 185 yards (6.2 YPA) he put up in this matchup in Week 9 (he did have 2 TDs). I do think they’ll win and he’ll play relatively well at least.
I know he’s been a shell of his former self, but it’s playoff time, and Travis Kelce finally got a little break last week, so I think he’lll bounce back. He did have only 3/14 receiving on 4 targets against the Dolphins in Week 9, but that was a weird game and he didn’t have Taylor in the crowd! The Dolphins are giving up the seventh-most receptions (5.4) and the sixth-most FPG (13.3) to TEs, and they’ve given up 7 TDs to the position this year with 4 TDs given up to a TEs in just their last four games. If Kelce comes up small in this one, it may be over.
I tweeted a few weeks ago that Rashee Rice was the new Kelce in KC, and that’s really been the case, since he’s way up in designed targets (26, fourth most among 105 receivers with 50+ targets) and targets per route run share (28%), as he often sits in the open spaces in the zone defenses they often see, a la Kelce. Rice caught his only 2 targets for 17 yards while he was still a part-time player back in Week 9, but he scored, which helped catapult him to his current role. He’ll see a tougher matchup against mostly Kader Kohou and Jalen Ramsey when he’s outside, but they aren’t at full strength with Xavien Howard (foot) out, and the schematic matchup is good on paper. Since Week 10, Rice leads KC in targets per route (0.31), first-read target share (26.6%), and yards per route run (2.78) against the three coverage shells he’ll see the majority of the time. On paper, this looks like 80% Kelce and Rice in the passing game.
Especially given the weather, which shouldn’t be too unusual for the NJ native, Isiah Pacheco is looking good for 20+ touches, which he’s hit in three of his last four. Pacheco had 16/66 rushing without a reception against Miami earlier this season, but in three starts without Jerrick McKinnon, Pacheco has played on a massive 79.7% of their snaps with 5.3 targets per game on a 55% route share. Miami is giving up 3.8 YPC and the fifth-fewest rushing YPG (76.6) to RBs, but they’re down several key defenders in their front seven, and Pacheco may get upward to 30 opportunities, given the circumstances (including how they hate the other RBs).
Looking better than usual: Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, Isiah Pacheco, Jaylen Waddle
Looking worse than usual: Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill
Reach plays: Durham Smythe
Prop Picks:
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys, 4:30 p.m., Sun.
Fantasy Injuries:
Packers: AJ Dillon was a DNP all week, so he’s unlikely to play. Emanuel Wilson is back as the #3 RB behind Patrick Taylor. CB Jaire Alexander was a DNP the last two days after getting his foot stepped up, so we’ll see what new drama he has this week as a GTD.
Cowboys: Top CB Stephon Gilmore is expected to play with his dislocated shoulder injury, but possibly with a harness, so he could be limited.
Packers Analysis
Jordan Love makes his postseason starting debut on a roll with multiple TD passes in eight of his last nine games, and he’s thrown just 1 INT over his last eight games. Dallas pressures QBs at a league-high 41.0% rate, but Green Bay’s O-line allows the third-lowest pressure rate (28.8%), and Love actually averages more YPA (7.6>7.1) when pressured with 7 TDs, 2 INTs, and 86.7 passer rating. Love has also done well against man, which the Cowboys run at the third-highest rate. You love the high total of 50+ and also the Stephon Gilmore injury could be a major factor, since he may not be able to raise both of his hands over his head. The Cowboys have allowed 271+ passing yards in 4 of their last 7 games, and Love’s receiving corps is loaded with Christian Watson likely back. I do not see how he fails to deliver a 20 FP performance.
I generally love Jayden Reed, who now has 15+ FP in his last four games, but this receiving corps is pretty darn crowded, and Dallas held opposing slot receivers to just 56.9 yards per game during the regular season (4th-fewest). Reed’s lined up inside on 69% of his routes in his last four games. On the other hand, Reed is averaging 2.00 YPRR on a 21.3% route share on 102 routes against man coverage, which Dallas runs at a top-3 clip. Based on his body of work and the likely shootout, I’m not saying a damn thing negative about Reed, but I don’t view him as a must-use guy.
I will say this about Christian Watson (hamstring), if he does, as I’d think he will: he’ll be a big-play waiting to happen. All he did in a game against this same Dallas defense and scheme last year was average 26 YPR with 3 TDs, as he crushed their man-heavy scheme. If Love is pressured against man coverage, he’ll be looking downfield for Watson, who averages 2.34 YPRR on a 26.2% target share on 65 routes against man. If the reports are good on gameday, I’d expect at least one big play for 30+ yards.
Otherwise, Romeo Doubs (chest) is still a starter, but they do rotate a lot of guys, so we’ll see Dontayvion Wicks and Bo Melton, who is their leading receiver over the last three weeks and now has 4+ catches, 6+ targets, and 44+ receiving yards in three straight. He’s seen his former teammate and fellow NJ guy Isiah Pacheco ball out in the playoffs, and Melton looks ready to stay hot and make some noise, since he’s averaging an absurd 5.60 YPRR on a 15.6% target share on just 15 routes against man coverage. He ran a sub-4,40 40 at the combine and he can line up anywhere, so he could be a problem for Dallas if he gets snaps, which I think he has to at this point.
The Cowboys are giving up the fewest receptions (3.8) and the fifth-fewest FPG (10.1) to TEs, so I can’t say I’m into the GB guys, who have already started to cancel each other out. Tucker Kraft has held onto the lead TE role, but for how long? Luke Musgrave returned last week and got in some snaps, and he was the top guy before his injury.
It’s not looking good at all again for AJ Dillon (neck), and last week with Dillon out, Aaron Jones played on a season-high 82% of the Packers snaps, and he looked great. Over their final 10 games, the Cowboys allowed 4.1 YPC and a league-high 51.6% success rate on those carries, and they’re giving up the 10th-most adjusted yards before contact per attempt (1.70) to RBs, so a big performance would not be a surprise, and you like how he’s not game script-dependent in a win-or-go-home game.
Cowboys Analysis
It’s not an ideal schematic matchup for Dak Prescott against the zone-heavy Packers, who are actually giving up the eighth-fewest passing TDs per game (1.2) and 14th-fewest FPG (16.1) to QBs. But this is a passing team, and there are positive schematic elements for sure, as GB play single-high safety on 61% of their coverage snaps, and Dak has been money vs. single-high defenses with 0.56 points per dropback. The Packers are also calling Jaire Alexander (foot) a GTD, and as shaky as he’s been, he’d be a big loss. Green Bay has also left the middle of the field wide-ass open far too often down the stretch, so Dak should find Jake Ferguson for a big play or two. In short, he should keep rolling.
I don’t know if CeeDee Lamb will “keep rolling” since the bar is high with 25+ FP in three straight games, and Lamb drops from 4.68 yards per route run when facing man to 2.17 YPPR when facing zones, which he’ll face this week. This helps explain how they contained D.J. Moore (4/64) and Justin Jefferson (5/59) the last two weeks. No Alexander would help, and they are giving up the third-highest YPRR (1.99) to slot receivers, and he’s got a 31% target share against their dominant cover-3 shell, but he may “only” go for like 6/100/1 in this one.
I do like Brandin Cooks, who has scored in three straight and in eight of his last 12, and he’s home, where he is averaging 4.4/66 per game just 2.6/21.6 YPG on the road. The Jaire Alexander (foot) situation helps and would boost him a tick if he’s out.
It’s not the best schematic matchup, as Jake Ferguson has a lowly 9% target share against Cover-3, and the Packers are only giving up the 16th-most FPG (11.8) to TEs. However, the middle of the field tends to be wide open against Green Bay, so I see Ferguson as an upside play this week at the very least.
In terms of the top guy who’s looking better than usual, that’s probably Tony Pollard, since Green Bay can be run on. Over the final 10 games, the Packers allowed 4.35 YPC (8th-most). The Cowboys are 7-point home favorites, so I’d expect that Mike McCarthy will be keen on running the ball plenty if they’re sitting on a lead. Pollard may actually be efficient with his 20 touches this week based on the softer matchup.
Looking better than usual: Tony Pollard, Dak Prescott, Brandin Cooks, Aaron Jones, Christian Watson
Looking worse than usual: Tucker Kraft/Luke Musgrave
Reach plays: Bo Melton
Prop Picks:
Solid enough odds for what should be an easy win.
Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions, 8 p.m., Sun.
Fantasy Injuries:
Rams: Starting FS Jordan Fuller was a DNP all week, but he’s still questionable, so not ruled out.
Lions: WR Kalif Raymond was ruled out, so maybe an extra look or two for both Josh Reynolds and Jameson Williams. Sam LaPorta practiced fully on Friday, so he will play. Backup James Mitchell was ruled out.
Rams Analysis
It’s a revenge game indoors with the highest total of the week (51.5) for Matthew Stafford, and he’s looking good. Over the final 10 weeks of the season, the Lions allowed a league-high 291.7 passing yards per game and 8.55 YPA, and they’ve allowed 345+ passing yards, 2 TDs, and 20.5+ FP in three straight games, twice to one Nicholas Mullens. The schematics look good, as Detroit gives up the most FP/drop back when lined up in 2-high coverage since week 10, and Puka Nacua, for example, averages 4.75 YPRR (2nd in the NFL) Weeks 13-17 against the coverage. They’ve also been burned lately playing man, as their corners have struggled. Now, on the negative side, since Week 10, the Lions have blitzed on 38.2% of dropbacks, and Stafford has a -4.2% CPOE against the Blitz (3rd worst in the NFL). And if Detroit’s stingy run defense holds up, things may be tougher for Stafford than expected, since their offense usually starts with their running game and works off that. Still, I’d expect a strong performance from Stafford in the 300/2 ballpark.
Puka Nacua is crushing 2-high coverages, and over the final 10 weeks of the regular season, the Lions gave up +7.9 schedule adjusted FPG to opposing outside receivers (2nd-most), so Puca is looking good, since he’s been also crushing man coverage, which Detroit is running at a top-7 clip the last two months. He may crush CB Cameron Sutton and the beleaguered Lions secondary, as Justin Jefferson did last week with 12/192/1.
Over the final 10 weeks of the regular season, the Lions gave up +3.2 adjusted FPG to slot wideouts (4th-most), and they’re giving up fifth-most receiving YPG (87.0) and the 13th-most receptions (121) to inside receivers, as Brian Branch has been awesome, but he’s also been responsible for .40 FP/RR, which is a lot. Cooper Kupp has a 30+ target percentage this year against man, which Detroit is running at a top-7 clip the last two months, so Kupp’s also looking very good.
The Lions are giving up 12th-most receptions (148) to outside receivers, and Demarcus Robinson is balling with a huge role. He’s averaging an 88% route share in the last four games with Stafford with a TD in four straight, and the Lions are giving up the fifth-most YPRR (2.19) and the fifth-most receiving TDs (13) to outside receivers, so he may very well stay hot, especially since he should see a lot of struggling CB Kindle Vildor unless they bench him.
The Lions have progressively gotten better against TEs this year, but they’re still giving up the eighth-most receiving YPG (55.3) and the 10th-most FPG (12.5) to the position and they made Johnny Mundt look like Johnny Gronk last week on some plays as he posted 5/58 receiving, so Tyler Higbee is in play as a sneaky play. He’s dealing with a shoulder issue, though, so he’s hard to back.
It’s a tough spot for Kyren Williams, and the Lions are giving up the fewest rushing YPG (60.5) and the fewest FPG (15.7) to RBs. Williams has the fourth-highest percentage of his rushing attempts in Man/Gap concept, and the Lions give up just 3.95 YPA against Man runs (12th, best), so it’s a tough test. The good news is he’s certainly capable of catching a ton of balls, but he’s averaging just 1.6 YPR in his last four games, so I’m definitely leaning negative.
Lions Analysis
We can take many angles with Jared Goff, but I generally like him indoors, ideally at home against a team with a weaker pass rush, and we have it here. Over the last two seasons, Goff is averaging 295.3 passing yards and 2.6 passing TDs per game (8.3 YPA) when he’s at home and the Lions are the favorite to win, which they are in this one. The Rams have been a smoke-and-mirror job on back-end, to their credit, but it’s losing steam and they’re now giving up the 13th-most passing YPG (246.8) and the sixth-most FPG (19.7) to QBs, including 18.5+ FP in three straight games. They also allowed +3.6 schedule-adjusted FPG above average (4th-most) to opposing quarterbacks over the final 10 weeks of the season. It looks like he might have Sam LaPorta active for the game, which is a lot better than inactive.
The easiest call of the week is Amon-Ra St. Brown, who absolutely eats against zone with 3.24 yards per route run compared to 1.96 YPR against man coverage, which the Rams run at the eighth-highest (76.3%), and a fat target share (28.0%). The Rams are middle-of-the-pack against slot receivers in terms of yards and receptions per game, but The Sun God is on a mission and his catch total is appropriately set to 7.5 this week, which is high and perfect.
Jameson Williams practiced in full all week, and while it’s not an ideal schematic matchup with Williams at a low 1.64 YPRR/9.5% target share on 166 routes against zone, but LA is still allowing the fourth-most receptions (31) and the most targets (85) of 20+ air yards, and LA can’t load up to stop the Lions strong running game and also defend the deep portion of the field, so I’m leaning positive for Williams.
I do also like Josh Reynolds as a sneaky option. I liked him last week and he did nothing for like :55 into the game, but he did get 5/44 on 7 targets. He’s got only a barely decent 10% target share and 1.40 YPRR vs zone, but Kalif Raymond is out, plus Laporta is banged up, so Jared Goff should be looking for his guy 6-7 times here.
The Rams are allowing the fourth-most receiving YPG (58.1) and the fourth-most FPG (13.5) to TEs, and Sam Laporta did log a full practice on Friday, but I do still think it would be ballsy to bank on him. They do have the capable Brock Wright.
The Rams give up just 3.63 YPC on inside runs (A/B gaps AKA Aaron Donald land), 4th in the NFL, which doesn’t bode that well for David Montgomery. On runs outside, the Rams give up 5.30 YPC (28th), which should benefit Jahmyr Gibbs more. Overall, the Rams are giving up the 13th-most adjusted yards before contact per attempt (1.72) but the eighth-fewest rushing YPG (77.5) to RBs. They’re also giving up the second-fewest receiving YPG (21.0) to the position. Montgomery looks TD-dependent, with 0 receiving yards or worse in five of his last seven games, and in their last nine games. He’s scored in three straight, but in their last nine games, Gibbs has out-snapped Montgomery inside the 10 by a 36 to 20 margin.
Looking better than usual: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jared Goff, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, Matthew Stafford
Looking worse than usual: Kyren Williams
Reach plays: Jameson Williams, Josh Reynolds
Prop Picks:
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills, 4:30 p.m., Mon.
Fantasy Injuries:
Steelers: They will tragically not have TJ Watt, but they are otherwise healthy.
Bills: They have ruled Gabe Davis out, so it’s a huge opportunity for Khalil Shakir.
Steelers Analysis
The numbers say Mason Rudolph is an upgrade over Kenny Pickett, and he’s been efficient, but the Steelers have been 71% run-heavy in the second-half of games with Rudolph. Problem is, there're +10 road underdogs in Buffalo this week, where it’s going to be 20 degrees at kickoff with winds in the 30-39 mph range, which is awful. He’s also up against a Bills defense that’s allowing the fifth-fewest FPG (215.2) to QBs. They’ve limited QBs to 17.1 or fewer FP since their Week 13 bye, so even with the Rasul Douglas injury, I don’t see Rudolph making many big plays against this defense, so I have no interest.
Rasul Douglas’ (DNP all week) status is big for George Pickens this week, since he has the size to match up with Pickens. But he’s missed practice all week with his knee injury, so he’s very iffy. Pickens is averaging 2.03 YPRR on a 19.1% target share on 383 routes against zone, which he’ll see all day, but this has been a tough matchup with the Bills giving up the fourth-fewest receiving YPG (77.4) and the eighth-fewest YPRR (1.68) to outside receivers. The weather probably makes the volatile Pickens even more volatile, as we saw last week.
I’d have to lean to this being another Diontae Johnson game, and he is leading them with a 20.7% target share on 271 routes against zone coverage. Buffalo is allowing the sixth-fewest receptions (117) and the third-fewest YPR (11.2) to outside receivers, but he is also set to see Rasul Douglas plenty if he plays, based on alignment numbers (they usually don’t travel CBs). I’m not expecting much, but this looks like a 5-6 catch day for Diontae.
This could actually be a little bit of a Pat Freiermuth game, since the Bills are giving up the seventh-most FPG (10.5) to TEs, and they’ve allowed 30+ receiving yards to individual TEs in five straight games. He does have 3+ catches in five of his last six, and in theory, given the weather and the solid schematic matchup, Freiermuth’s impact could be greater than usual.
Najee Harris gets a break here with the nasty wind, which should help ground the Bills offense and keep Pittsburgh as conservative as possible. He has been rolling lately with 19+ carries, 1+ TDs, and 13.8+ FP in three straight, but those were all positive game scripts. He did get 5 catches from Rudolph last week, which helps a little, but over the last 10 weeks of the season, the Bills allowed just 3.71 YPC (8th-fewest) and a 45% success rate on those carries (9th-lowest). Miami did run for 19/101 last week with De’Von Achane and Jeff Wilson, but this looks like a tougher spot for Najee.
I’d give a very slight edge to Jaylen Warren, who has hit double-digit FP in four straight games and 4+ catches in five straight. With the Steelers 10-point underdogs, it should ultimately be more Warren in the backfield in the second half as they play from behind. For what it’s worth, on runs to the left, Buffalo gives up a 9% explosive run rate (30th), and it’s strength against strength as Warren has a 9.7% explosive run rate on runs to the left (3rd).
Bills Analysis
He has a cannon to cut through the wind, but winds up to 39 mph is not good for any QB, even Josh Allen. Of course, he just completed a season with 15 rushing TDs, which has helped him log multiple TDs in 16 straight games. The Steelers pass rush ranks sixth in pressure rate (33.1%) since Week 9, and while they still have some good players, they drop to mediocre levels without Watt. Allen’s going to get his, so it will probably come down to his rushing production and whether or not he runs for 1 TD or two.
We got signs of life from Stefon Diggs last week, and the data looks great for him this week. For one, Pittsburgh is playing single-high safety coverage on 64% of their opponents' dropbacks over the final 10 weeks of the season and Diggs dominates targets with a strong 37.4% first-read target share against those looks. He’s also averaging 1.98 YPRR on a 26.5% target share on 185 routes against man coverage, and the Steelers are man-heavy. However, that’s on paper. On the field he’ll likely draw shadow coverage from Joey Porter, who has been a wideout eraser. No Gabe Davis probably helps the targets, but I’m leaning negative with Diggs here.
I have been very into Khalil Shakir lately, and he’s crushing it, turning his 31 targets in the 7 games where he’s played more than 65% of the snaps this season into a strong 27/479/1 receiving. He’s rolling with an insane 15.7 YPR + an 86.7% catch rate on the season. He’ll play inside plenty with Trent Sherfield stepping up for Gabe, and the Steelers allow the NFL’s 2nd-highest passer rating over the middle (27%) and 2.05 yards per route run to slot receivers (2nd-most). Shakir also leads the Bills in yards per route run (2.35) in his starts, so (other than the cold weather and wind) what’s not to like with Porter on Diggs a lot?
I also think Dalton Kincaid is looking good here, and he has a strong 16.8% FR target share against single-high safety coverage, which Pittsburgh ran on 64% of their opponents' dropbacks over the final 10 weeks of the season. Kincaid ran 56 routes compared to just 24 for Dawson Knox the final two weeks of the season, and he’s crushed with 11/171 receiving on 15 targets. The Steelers are giving up the ninth-most FPG (12.6) to TEs and have allowed double-digit FP to the position in five of the last six weeks, and Knox is usually better against zone.
The Bills have leaned run-heavy under new OC Joe Brady since Week 11, but it’s been frustrating for James Cook, since Allen has been bogarting so many rushing TDs, and his role as a receiver has dried up in three straight games (4/12 receiving on seven targets). And last week, Playoff Lenny Fournette jumped into the mix with 7 carries! It’s a good matchup, at least, as the Steelers are giving up the 10th-most rushing YPG (96.4) and the 14th-most FPG (21.7) to RBs, and of course no Watt helps.
Looking better than usual: Khalil Shakir, Dalton Kincaid, Jaylen Warren
Looking worse than usual: Mason Rudolph, Stefon Diggs
Reach plays: Pat Freiermuth
Prop Picks:
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 8 p.m., Mon.
Fantasy Injuries:
Eagles: AJ Brown has not practiced through Friday, but he has one more day (Sat). Of course, he reportedly deleted his twitter account or something. They may not have S Reed Blankenship, and his backup Sydney Brown is out.
Buccaneers: Baker Mayfield has practiced, so he’s set to play.
Eagles Analysis
It’s hard to handicap Jalen Hurts without knowing how well he’s able to throw a ball well, given his finger injury, but it’s worth noting that Hurts has completed just 44% of his passes for a lowly 6.2 YPA when pressured this year, and the Bucs generated pressure on a strong 39% of their opponents' dropbacks (4th-best), thanks in large part to HC Todd Bowles’ blitz packages. The Tush Push makes him impossible to handicap for fantasy other than to stay “start ‘em” but if he has AJ Brown, then we can reasonably expect success passing with his collection of weapons, since TB gives up the seventh-most FPG (19.5) to QBs. If Brown is out or limited, it could be a problem, since TB has given up the 5th lowest completion percentage against RPO passes (65.7%). God forbid he’s throwing to Quez Watkins and Olamide Zaccheaus.
I’m rolling this article out on Friday night, and as of publication, A.J. Brown has yet to practice for the week, and his status is unknown. If he were healthy, we’d talk about how the Bucs are giving up the sixth-most receiving YPG (123.5) and the 10th-most YPT (8.4) to outside receivers, and how he crushed them for 9/131 receiving on 14 targets in September. The Bucs also blitz at the third-highest rate (42.2%), and Brown owns team-bests in YPRR (2.98) and target share (33.7%) on 167 routes against the blitz. But again, his health is a major question.
It’s a good enough spot for DeVonta Smith, with the Bucs giving up the sixth-most receiving YPG (123.5) and the 10th-most YPT (8.4) to outside receivers, and he’s generally a lot better against zone. He practiced all week, so he’s good to go. The basic numbers all look good with the Bucs giving up the sixth-most receptions (160) and the 12th-most YPRR (2.06) to outside receivers, and I’m not that worried about CBs Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis, and if Philly needs a hero this week, Skinny Batman can deliver.
The player who stands out with a plus matchup and is looking better than usual is Dallas Goedert. TB’s second and third-level guys are good, but they’ll have their hands full with Jalen Hurts running it, and Tampa Bay got crushed by TEs for 37/400/4 on 58 targets over the final five weeks of the season.
I can’t call it a good matchup for D’Andre Swift, since the Bucs gave up 3.60 YPC (7th-fewest) and a 45% success rate (8th-lowest) in the final 10 weeks of the season, and they’re giving up the fewest rushing TDs per game (.3) to RBs. On the positive side, this is the matchup Swift broke out in for the Eagles with 16/130 rushing against the Bucs in Week 3, and he may be viewed as critical to their chances for obvious reasons. If Philly’s offense flops overall, then he might be screwed, since he’s got only 6 receptions for 17 yards on a pathetic 11 targets in his last six games. The annoying Kenny Gainwell is always lurking.
Buccaneers Analysis
Something has to give here with Baker Mayfield banged up with ankle and rib injuries and facing an Eagles defense he struggled against in the first month of the season with 146/1 with an 1 INT. Of course, even though they are getting CB Darius Slay back, the Eagles defense is a shell of its September self and is now allowing the fifth-most passing YPG (267.7) and the second-most passing TDs (2.1) to QBs. Over the last 10 weeks, they’ve allowed 268 passing yards per game (4th-most) and a 19:5 TD-to-INT ratio. They’ve adjusted the scheme late in the season, and dudes are lost out there for the Eagles, plus CB James Bradberry is a major liability. I’m very comfortable with a solid 250/2 projection this week, despite his injuries, and him going off with 3 TDs or more is possible.
He’ll likely see a lot of CB Darius Slay, but that should not be much of a problem for Mike Evans. Since Week 10, Philly has given up 0.58 FP/DB when lined up in single-high coverage (T-30th), and Big Mike averages 3.00 YPRR against single-high coverage (8th). The Eagles are also giving up the second-most receiving TDs per game (1.6) to WRs, and Evans got 5/60/1 receiving on 10 targets in this matchup in Week 3, when the offense sucked.
It’s clear he needs to get inside, and that’s what’s happening now, and in their last five games, Chris Godwin actually saw more targets than Evans (46 to 31). The Eagles are giving up the most receptions (15.1) and the second-most receiving YPG (183.8) to WRs. He’s got the best matchup overall, often against the struggling James Bradberry, and Godwin is a Philly-area guy.
Trey Palmer is in play for a big play, since he’s moving outside when Godwin plays inside, and he’s a burner, so if they can get him on James Bradberry especially, the rookie could make a big play. I’ve watched him closely after interviewing him in the off-season, and he’s a confident guy who Baker Mayfield likes.
The Eagles are giving up the 11th-most FPG (12.5) to TEs, and they may not have S Reed Blankenship, and his backup Sydney Brown is out, but Cade Otton has failed to hit even 2 receptions in six straight games now, which is bad. He’s certainly capable of putting up big numbers, and this matchup is good.
Once again, as I’ve stated here for weeks and weeks, Philly’s run D isn’t all that. Over the final 10 weeks of the season, they gave up 117 rushing yards per game (7th-most) and a 53.1% success rate (2nd-highest) on the ground, which is good news for Rachaad White, who got stonewalled for 14/38 rushing in the first matchup in September. Philly allowed nine different RBs to post 12.2+ FP and in the last seven weeks, including 20+ to four different RBs in the last six games, so my guy should be fine.
Looking better than usual: Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Dallas Goedert, DeVonta Smith
Looking worse than usual: A.J. Brown
Reach plays: Trey Palmer
Prop Picks:
I’ll go over both here.
