In this new weekly column, I’ll be picking out five of the most important stats that I think fantasy players NEED to know.
I watch every game every week to collect our advanced data, and while watching, I often make notes of things that I’m eager to dig into once all of our data is fully compiled. Sometimes this will be player or team performance-based metrics, and other times this will be player usage-based metrics.
All of the stats I’m referencing today can be found using the Fantasy Points Data Suite (FREE THIS WEEK!), and I promise there is so much more to find than just these five stats.
1. The Bears used play action on 34% of Justin Fields’ dropbacks in Week 4
Here are the splits for Justin Fields in Weeks 1-3 with and without play action.
His play action rate nearly doubled in Week 4 compared to his play action rate in Weeks 1-3. This should have been the game plan for Fields from day one, as he clearly is a better QB when using play action.
On the season, Fields ranks 4th in Passer Rating, 4th in Completion Percentage Over Expectation, and 5th in FP/DB when using play action. Without it, he ranks 27th in PSR, 26th in CPOE, and 19th in FP/DB. If the Bears coaching staff continues to unlock his rushing ability and give him more play-action plays, he could start to show the ceiling we saw at times in 2022.
2. D’Andre Swift has 27.3% of the Eagles designed targets since Week 2
Swift is on the cusp of being the best fantasy RB for the Eagles we have seen in years. Here are the target share and fantasy points for all Eagles players on designed targets this season since Swift took over.
Swift is seeing the same amount of screen-type-designed passing targets as Dallas Goedert and more than A.J. Brown. That is adding an additional two expected fantasy points per game on top of the rest of the work he is getting.
For perspective, Kenneth Gainwell, Miles Sanders, and Boston Scott combined for a 17.7% designed target share in 2022.
Not only that, Swift's snap share, carry share, target share, and XFP share beat all of Sanders’ numbers from last season.
The Eagles clearly view Swift as the most talented back they’ve had over the past two years, and he plays for the best rushing team in the NFL.
3. De’Von Achane has 21.5% of the Dolphins’ expected fantasy points in quarters 1-3 and when the score is within 10 points. Raheem Mostert is at 32.2%
Despite two big fantasy weeks in a row, Achane hasn’t taken over the Miami backfield.
When the game is still competitive, the only stat Achane is beating Mostert in is in carry share, which is less important than snap share, route share, and target share. Also, remember Jeff Wilson is eligible to come off IR this week, and we could be looking at a tricky backfield. There will, without a doubt, be value in this backfield, but you shouldn’t assume Achane is a locked-in RB1 moving forward.
In quarters 1-3 and within score differential of +/- 10 points, Mostert’s XFP of 16.4 ranks 4th in the NFL over the past two weeks. Achane’s 10.9 XFP ranks 16th near Tyjae Spears, Joshua Kelley, and Jahmyr Gibbs.
4. Alvin Kamara’s 35.9% target share is the highest target share he has had in a single week over the past three seasons, and the 2nd highest target share of any RB in a single week over the same span.
Kamara was dropped right into a large workload in Week 4 after he returned from his suspension.
He was tied with Michael Thomas and Rashid Shaheed in 1st read targets behind Chris Olave, but he led the team with five designed targets. Only Christian McCaffrey has seen a larger target share in a single week since 2021.
That is just the receiving work. We didn’t see the Saints get into the red zone in Week 4, but historically Kamara has handled 70+ of the snaps for the Saints inside the 10-yard line each of the past two seasons. If you held onto Kamara through his suspension, you have a serious bellcow RB on your hands now.
5. Since Week 2, Christian Kirk has a 31.4% 1st read target share compared to just 17.4% for Calvin Ridley. He also leads the NFL in designed targets over the past three weeks.
The fantasy community may have overreacted to Kirk’s usage in Week 1. Zay Jones has been out for a few weeks, but there is no denying that the team has made an effort to keep Kirk involved in the offense.
Kirk has become much more of a safety blanket for Trevor Lawrence this season. His average depth of target is down to 7.4 since Week 2 from his 2022 season average depth of target of 10.3.
However, he is seeing enough targets to keep his fantasy production alive despite the low aDOT. He is actually matching Ridley’s air yard share despite seeing half the air yards per target.
Ridley should not be forgotten about, though. He has three end zone targets over the past three weeks, along with an 18.8% drop rate which is sure to regress. As long as Zay Jones stays out or is minimally involved, both these WRs should score fantasy points in their own unique ways.
