Week 4 Underdog Pick Em


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Week 4 Underdog Pick Em

Welcome to a brand new feature on Fantasy Points! Each week, I’ll go through some of my favorite Underdog Fantasy props so we can make a parlay (or multiple) based on those picks! It is very important to note that for Underdog Fantasy Pick ‘Em, you can’t just play one single prop by itself, you need to have at least a two-team parlay, so there won’t be any one bet that I emphasize more than the others.

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Before we get going, a quick overview of how Underdog Fantasy scoring rolls: half-PPR scoring, passing yards points are 1 point per every 25 yards, 4 point passing touchdowns, -1 point for an interception. Since this typically drops on Fridays, this will not include a Thursday Night Football prop. Let’s dive right into this week’s props!

Lamar Jackson OVER 57.5 Rushing Yards

We have to start things off this week with a banger of a prop. First things first, Jackson is the most prolific running quarterback active in the NFL right now. Earlier this season, he set the record for most 100-yard rushing games by a quarterback with his 11th such game.

This past week he also became the first player in NFL history with 3 passing touchdowns and 100 rushing yards in consecutive games. In fact, if you go back over his last 14 games since the start of last season, he has rushed for at least 58 yards in NINE of those games.

Now, Jackson draws the Buffalo Bills, who have become injury central in the league this season. Defensive lineman Jordan Phillips is out this week, there are new corners being cycled in, (hello again, Xavier Rhodes) and Jordan Poyer could once again miss a game. I would take the over here on Jackson being able to do damage with his feet as well as his arm.

Travis Etienne OVER 17.5 Receiving Yards

Etienne comes in as my second play this week, and it’s quietly a solid option. For one, he has eclipsed this receiving total in all three games this season so far. Secondly, the Philadelphia Eagles are allowing 30.7 receiving yards per game to running backs this season. James Robinson will not be nearly as involved through the passing game as Etienne will be, so this is a great play in my opinion.

The Eagles have been putting up points in bunches so far this season, so while I expect Robinson to try and grind his way to yards on the ground, if Jacksonville is to have a shot at winning this game I expect Etienne to be a solid part of it.

Logan Thomas UNDER 25.5 Receiving Yards

This is an interesting prop, because at first glance I thought it was too low to throw in there. Then I checked the data and the Dallas Cowboys allow the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends. They also allow the second-fewest yards per game to the position this season, with only 23.3.

This is a bit controversial as Thomas has hit this number in two of three games. However, he is still recovering from offseason ACL reconstruction surgery and is easing himself back into action. I expect this division game to be a knockdown, dragged out slugfest between the teams and for Thomas to stay under this total.

David Njoku OVER 36.5 Receiving Yards

On the other side of the spectrum, the Atlanta Falcons are pretty, pretty bad against tight ends this season. They give up over 73 yards per game and are the second-worst team in the league when it comes to allowing them fantasy points. That’s why I went with Njoku’s over here.

Njoku is coming off a MONSTROUS game last week, but what’s helping keep this number down is the fact that in his other two games, he failed to surpass it. I don’t think that happens this week. The Falcons' defense is all-around bad and I do expect this game to be relatively high-scoring, so we should have lots of chances for this to hit.

Final Thoughts

When we load all of these plays into Underdog Fantasy’s prop parlay machine, we receive 10-1 odds on this parlay, meaning if you bet $100 and all three legs hit, you will win $1,000 total!

Alternatively, you can choose to get Insurance on your parlay, for no additional cost. With insurance, if one of your legs doesn’t hit but the other three do, you get paid at 1.5-1 odds, while winning at 6-1 odds if you still hit all four legs.

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