My Power Ratings are designed to be a starting point for point-spread betting between two teams. They take into account recent performances, long-term injuries, coaching, and strength of schedule. These ratings are intended to help predict performances in the present, but they’re not necessarily predictive for the rest of the season. I will take my Power Ratings into account when I make my weekly against the spread picks, but I’ll also consider current injury reports, home-field advantage, weather, and other factors that may be relevant.
I’ll be updating my Power Ratings every week during the season, and this year’s format will include weekly betting notes and a look at the evolving futures markets to go along with my ratings.
Example: My top-rated team, the Bills (7), would be 11.5-point favorites on a neutral field over my worst-rated team, the Falcons (-4.5). Using a two-point adjustment for home-field advantage (last year’s HFA average was 1.8 points), the Bills would be 13.5-point favorites over the Falcons at home and 9.5-point favorites over the Falcons on the road.
Week 2 Power Ratings
| Rank | Team | Power Rating | 2021 Record (ATS) | Ratings Change | Super Bowl Odds |
| 1. | Buffalo Bills | 7 | 1-0 (1-0) | +1 | +500 |
| 2. | Kansas City Chiefs | 5.5 | 1-0 (1-0) | +1 | +800 |
| 3. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 5 | 1-0 (1-0) | — | +700 |
| 4. | Los Angeles Chargers | 4.5 | 1-0 (1-0) | +.5 | +1300 |
| 5. | Green Bay Packers | 4.5 | 0-1 (0-1) | -.5 | +1300 |
| 6. | Los Angeles Rams | 4 | 0-1 (0-1) | -.5 | +1500 |
| 7. | Cincinnati Bengals | 3.5 | 0-1 (0-1) | — | +2500 |
| 8. | Denver Broncos | 3 | 0-1 (0-1) | — | +1800 |
| 9. | Philadelphia Eagles | 3 | 1-0 (0-1) | +.5 | +1600 |
| 10. | Baltimore Ravens | 3 | 1-0 (1-0) | — | +1700 |
| 11. | San Francisco 49ers | 3 | 0-1 (0-1) | -.5 | +2200 |
| 12. | Minnesota Vikings | 2.5 | 1-0 (1-0) | +1.5 | +2500 |
| 13. | Indianapolis Colts | 1.5 | 0-0-1 (0-1) | -.5 | +2500 |
| 14. | Las Vegas Raiders | 1.5 | 0-1 (0-1) | — | +5000 |
| 15. | Miami Dolphins | 1.5 | 1-0 (1-0 | +.5 | +3000 |
| 16. | New Orleans Saints | 1 | 1-0 (0-1) | — | +3500 |
| 17. | Cleveland Browns | 0 | 1-0 (1-0) | +.5 | +4000 |
| 18. | Tennessee Titans | 0 | 0-1 (0-1) | -.5 | +4000 |
| 19. | New England Patriots | -.5 | 0-1 (0-1) | -.5 | +7000 |
| 20. | Washington Commanders | -1 | 1-0 (1-0) | — | +6000 |
| 21. | Pittsburgh Steelers | -1 | 1-0 (1-0) | -1 | +7000 |
| 22. | Detroit Lions | -1.5 | 0-1 (1-0) | — | +13000 |
| 23. | New York Giants | -1.5 | 1-0 (1-0) | +.5 | +13000 |
| 24. | Carolina Panthers | -1.5 | 0-1 (0-1) | -.5 | +15000 |
| 25. | Arizona Cardinals | -2 | 0-1 (0-1) | -2 | +4000 |
| 26. | Jacksonville Jaguars | -2.5 | 0-1 (0-1) | — | +13000 |
| 27. | Seattle Seahawks | -3 | 1-0 (1-0) | +.5 | +15000 |
| 28. | Dallas Cowboys | -3 | 0-1 (0-1) | -4.5 | +2200 |
| 29. | Chicago Bears | -3.5 | 1-0 (1-0) | +.5 | +10000 |
| 30. | Houston Texans | -4 | 0-0-1 (1-0) | +.5 | +20000 |
| 31. | Atlanta Falcons | -4 | 0-1 (1-0) | +1 | +20000 |
| 32. | New York Jets | -4.5 | 0-1 (0-1) | -1 | +20000 |
Betting Notes
Be sure to subscribe to our Premium package to get access to all of my weekly Best Bets.
The Buffalo Bills sacked Matthew Stafford seven times with just one blitz on 49 dropbacks. The Bills became just the fourth team in the last 50 seasons to convert a ridiculous 90% (9 of 10) of their third downs in a game.
Patrick Mahomes is 5-0 in season openers with 18 TD passes and zero interceptions.
Tom Brady became the first quarterback to start a game at 45 years old, and he improved to 7-0 against the Cowboys.
Khalil Mack registered three sacks in his first game with the Los Angeles Chargers while Herbert threw for 3+ TDs for the 14th time in just 33 career games (42.4%).
Aaron Rodgers had his NFL record of 38 touchdowns without an interception against division opponents snapped in Week 1 — the streak dated back to December 2019.
The seven sacks allowed by the Los Angeles Rams were the most in Sean McVay’s tenure. The Rams lost by 21 in the season opener, which was just the fifth time they’ve lost by 21+ points since McVay became coach in 2017.
Joe Burrow threw a career-high four interceptions and he absorbed seven sacks behind a revamped Cincinnati Bengals offensive line.
The San Francisco 49ers outgained the Chicago Bears by 1.3 yards per play (4.9 to 3.6), but they shot themselves in the foot with three turnovers and a whopping 12 penalties for 99 yards.
The Baltimore Ravens are waiting for Ronnie Stanley to get back to full health after ankle surgery last October, and they lost swing tackle Ja’Wuan James to a season-ending Achilles injury. The Jets outgained the Ravens by 104 yards (378 to 274) and Baltimore managed 3.0 YPC (21/63 rushing).
A.J. Brown posted a career-high 155 receiving yards in his Philadelphia Eagles debut on 13 targets — no other receiver had more than four targets.
Derek Carr targeted his new receiver (and old friend) Davante Adams a Week 1 high 17 times in their loss to the Chargers. He also tied a career-high with three INTs in the season opener. The Las Vegas Raiders finished with 43 dropbacks to just 13 handoffs in Week 1.
Michael Thomas scored a pair of touchdowns in his first action since the 2020 season.
The Atlanta Falcons sacked Jameis Winston four times after the Falcons had a league-low 18 sacks all of last season.
Justin Jefferson set a Minnesota Vikings’ record with 158 receiving yards at halftime, which was 58 more yards than the Green Bay Packers had total in the first half.
Geno Smith completed 17 of his first 18 passes for 164 yards in the first half against the Broncos, but he ended the game with just 195 yards on 28 attempts (6.9 YPA) with an aDOT of just 5.1 yards.
The Denver Broncos lost two fumbles by Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon from the Seattle one-yard line.
The Indianapolis Colts haven’t won a season-opening game since they defeated the Terrelle Pryor-led Oakland Raiders in 2013.
Matt Ryan became the second-fastest player to reach 60,000 passing yards in his 223rd game — Drew Brees got to the mark in 215 contests.
The Houston Texans finished with 77 rushing yards after ranking last in 2021 with 83.6 YPG. Rex Burkhead led the team with 14 carries despite Dameon Pierce’s phenomenal training camp.
The New England Patriots lost back-to-back season openers (both to the Miami Dolphins) for the first time since 2000-01. The Dolphins have won four straight games in their series.
The Pittsburgh Steelers lost the defending Defensive Player of the Year, T.J. Watt, for at least the next six weeks with a torn pectoral muscle. Watt tied Michael Strahan’s NFL sack record (22.5) last season despite missing two games.
The Cleveland Browns opened the season with a victory for the first time since they beat the Kyle Boller-led Ravens back in 2004.
Christian McCaffrey touched the ball just five times on the Carolina Panthers’ first 27 plays and he finished with just 14/57 scrimmage.
The Arizona Cardinals allowed six touchdowns on six Chiefs’ red-zone trips and they trailed by 30 points before scoring two late touchdowns. They’re now 1-6 ATS in their last seven contests dating back to last December.
The Tennessee Titans blew a 13-point lead against the New York Giants, which was the largest lead they’ve blown with the closer Derrick Henry in the lineup.
Saquon Barkley ran for 164 yards against the Tennessee Titans, which was his best game since late December 2019. He topped 100+ rushing yards just once in 13 tries last season.
Carson Wentz threw for four TDs for the first time since the game he tore his ACL playing with the Eagles in 2017, and his old coach Doug Pederson happened to be coaching the Jaguars.
The Dallas Cowboys went from 2.5-point home favorites against the Bengals before Week 1 to seven-point dogs after their dismal performance against the Buccaneers and after losing Dak Prescott to a hand injury.
The Jacksonville Jaguars have lost 30-of-34 games since 2020.
The Atlanta Falcons ran for 200+ yards and lost to the Saints, which has happened just 25 times in the last six seasons (per The Athletic).
The New York Jets finished 2 of 14 on third downs on their way to tying an NFL record with their 13th straight loss in September.
Futures Market
Super Bowl Odds
The most shocking development in the Super Bowl market is that the Dallas Cowboys didn’t budge from their +2200 odds despite losing Dak Prescott to thumb surgery. They looked anemic against the Buccaneers even before losing Prescott and I want no part of these odds. The second-most shocking development is that the Arizona Cardinals’ +4000 odds didn’t drop after getting smoked by the Chiefs. They’ve been a fading franchise since the last month of last season and nothing changed in the season opener.
The Buffalo Bills (+550 to +500) and the Kansas City Chiefs (+1000 to +800) are the top two teams in my Power Ratings and they saw significant jumps in their odds. The Bills had implied odds of 15.4% before beating the Rams and they’re now sitting at 16.7%, and the Chiefs went from 9.1% to 11.1% with their demolition of the Cardinals. Other risers included the Philadelphia Eagles (+2200 to +1600), Minnesota Vikings (+4500 to +3500), and Miami Dolphins (+4000 to +3000) after impressive Week 1 performances.
The Green Bay Packers (+1000 to +1300) and Los Angeles Rams (+1200 to +1500) saw significant moves down the board after struggling to generate much offense in their season-opening beatdowns. The New England Patriots have been a floundering team since the start of training camp and their odds plummeted from +5000 to +7000 after a lifeless effort against the Dolphins. I don’t know how much can be taken away from what transpired at Soldier Field last weekend, but the San Francisco 49ers (+1600 to +2200) were significantly docked by oddsmakers. This is the best buy-low opportunity on the board this week, especially since the Seahawks were the only team in the NFC West to win in Week 1.
MVP and Offensive Rookie of the Year
Josh Allen remains the MVP favorite at DraftKings at +500 odds followed by Patrick Mahomes (+750) and Justin Herbert (+750) before a significant gap to Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers at +1200. Mahomes has moved into favorite status at other books including at Caesars at +500 odds. Jalen Hurts (+2500 to +1600) was one of the biggest risers after throwing for 243 yards and adding 17/90/1 rushing in their victory over the Lions.
The Offensive Rookie of the Year remains completely wide open, especially with the old favorite Kenny Pickett starting the season on the bench behind Mitch Trubisky. His odds dropped from +875 to +1400 and it could take a little longer for him to crack the lineup after Pittsburgh's season-opening upset over Cincinnati, despite Trubisky actively holding the Steelers. George Pickens didn’t budge from +900 odds even after he posted just a three-yard catch in his pro debut. He’s now the co-favorite with Jahan Dotson who is coming off a two-touchdown performance against the Jaguars. Drake London (+1000), Dameon Pierce (+1000), Chris Olave (+1000), and Romeo Doubs (+1100) are all within +200 of the co-favorites.
I’m putting a small bet on Tyrion Davis-Price to win OROY at +10000 odds on FanDuel. He’s so far off the radar that BetMGM doesn’t even have him listed after he was a healthy scratch in Week 1. I wouldn’t be shocked if he becomes the lead runner in San Francisco over the next month. The 49ers placed Eli Mitchell on the injured reserve and he’s expected to miss the next two months with a knee injury. TDP could get some runway to take over the backfield with just Jeff Wilson in front of him, and this is a no-brainer bet for me with such long odds in a wide-open futures market.
