Week 13 DFS Study Hall

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Week 13 DFS Study Hall

DFS research can be tough. We may not always know what to look for, or where to look for it.

But this article helps solve that problem – by providing some early-week research to give readers solid footing for the upcoming Week 13 DFS slate.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.0) @ Atlanta Falcons (O/U: 43.5)

Trends:

  • Jaylen Warren (hamstring) didn’t play in Week 12, and Najee Harris (abdominal) left early. In their absence, Benny Snell played 41% of snaps, handled 43% of backfield carries, and ran 34% of routes. Anthony McFarland earned 30% of snaps, handled 21% of backfield carries, and 34% of routes. That said, Warren will play this week, while Harris is questionable.

  • Pat Freiermuth (0.22 TPRR) has been the Steelers' most-targeted player on a per-route basis since Kenny Pickett took over. Diontae Johnson is still leading the team in raw targets (57) and XFP/G (15.8) but is averaging just 9.8 FPG, so he’s getting outperformed by George Pickens (11.4 FPG) on a lesser workload (12.4 XFP/G).

  • Cordarrelle Patterson’s role is slowly improving. In Week 12, Patterson hit his highest snap share (58%) since returning from IR, while also posting his best target share (21%) and best route share (54%) of the season on Sunday. He profiles as an elite GPP play this week, given he has dominated backfield goal line usage (71% of backfield goal line carries) when healthy.

  • Olamide Zaccheaus earned his best target share of the season (33%) on Sunday, in the Falcons' first game without Kyle Pitts. He is legitimately in play this week at just $3,600 on DraftKings as Atlanta’s only full-time pass catcher outside of Drake London.

Matchups:

  • Pittsburgh is the 6th-softest matchup for opposing WRs by schedule-adjusted FPG allowed (+3.4).

  • The Steelers are also the 3rd-toughest matchup for opposing QBs on the ground, allowing -2.1 schedule-adjusted rushing FPG. They are far more forgiving through the air (+1.6 schedule-adjusted FPG allowed), but given how little Marcus Mariota throws, I would consider this a tougher matchup for him.

  • Atlanta has been a serious run funnel lately, allowing a -12.1% pass rate over expectation since Week 8. Perhaps good news for the Steelers ground game.

  • The Falcons are the 6th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (+3.4 FPG) and the single-best matchup for opposing WRs (+6.7 FPG). The ideal spot for the Pittsburgh passing attack if they don’t turn run-heavy in this contest.

Green Bay Packers (-3.0) @ Chicago Bears (O/U: 42.5)

Trends:

  • Aaron Jones continues to be very sensitive to winning and losing. This season, he’s averaging 19.5 FPG in wins, but just 14.5 FPG in losses. AJ Dillon, meanwhile, averages 7.4 FPG in wins, but 8.6 FPG in losses.

  • Christian Watson only averages 5.5 targets per game since Week 9, but among all WRs, he’s averaged the 17th-most deep targets per game (1.8) and the 12th-most inside the 10 opportunities per game (0.8). He’s being trusted in high-leverage spots, which is huge for a rookie. Arguably, he’s the 1a to Allen Lazard’s 1b for the Green Bay passing attack.

  • Aaron Rodgers has thrown for 2 or more TDs in nine of his 12 games this season. He hasn’t exceeded 19.4 fantasy points in a single contest.

  • Robert Tonyan’s usage isn’t very good, even in a depleted receiving corp. He hasn’t exceeded a 65% route share in any game this season and has only earned double-digit XFP once (Week 6).

  • Perhaps it was a product of Justin Fields’ absence or Darnell Mooney’s injury, but Cole Kmet earned his highest route share (89%) and 2nd-highest target share (25%) of the season in Week 13. I would expect a bump in his pass-game role for the duration of Mooney’s absence.

  • Chicago was still aggressively run-heavy without Fields, posting a -16.3% pass rate over expectation (the 2nd-lowest mark of any team in Week 12).

  • David Montgomery continues to dominate backfield usage with no Khalil Herbert. He earned 85% of backfield XFP in Week 11, and 70% of backfield XFP in Week 12. And the results have followed, with Montgomery scoring 21.1 and 14.3 fantasy points in those games.

  • With no Darnell Mooney (who is likely out for the season), Chase Claypool (75%) and Byron Pringle (54%) both posted season-high route shares. I would expect Claypool to emerge in Mooney’s role (worth 10.1 XFP/G) while Pringle works as the de-facto No. 3 receiver in the passing game (behind Kmet).

Matchups:

  • Chicago is the 4th-toughest matchup for opposing outside WRs by schedule-adjusted FPG allowed (-3.9 FPG), but the 10th-softest matchup for opposing slots (+1.4 FPG). This could funnel some targets to Randall Cobb.

  • Chicago is the league’s premier run funnel, allowing a -5.5% pass rate over expectation. This may force Green Bay to lean on their ground game even more than usual.

  • Green Bay is the 4th-softest matchup for RBs on the ground by schedule-adjusted FPG allowed (+3.0) and the 8th-softest matchup for RBs overall. A great spot for David Montgomery.

Denver Broncos (+8.5) @ Baltimore Ravens (O/U: 38.5)

Trends:

  • Denver is averaging just 14.3 PPG. That’s the worst mark since 2018 Arizona (14.1 PPG) – a team that won just three games on their way to the No. 1 overall pick.

  • Russell Wilson is averaging just 13.5 FPG, a mark that’s 24% worse than Wilson’s 2nd-worst fantasy season ever.

  • Latavius Murray dominated backfield snaps in Week 12 (82%), but scored just 10.8 fantasy points on a 9.2 XFP workload. He’s held back by general offensive incompetence, but his overall role is very strong, especially once you factor in his 58% route share on Sunday.

  • Greg Dulcich leads all TEs in deep targets per game (1.5) and ranks 5th in air yards per game (63.5) since taking over as the starter in Week 6. He’s a great GPP play at just $3,400 with such a compelling deep role.

  • Kendall Hinton has posted a 90% route share and a 17% target share since Jerry Jeudy got hurt in Week 10. He would profile as a decent option on DraftKings at $3,600 if the Denver offense wasn’t one of the worst of the last decade.

  • Gus Edwards dominated backfield XFP (79%) and led the way in snap share (50%) in his first game since Week 8. I wouldn’t consider any member of this backfield playable, but Edwards is the clear top option. Although, things will get even messier with JK Dobbins recently activated off IR.

  • Lamar Jackson has crushed as a heavy favorite, averaging 29.1 FPG as a favorite of 7.0 points or more and 27.2 FPG in wins of 7 points or more since 2019. For perspective, the greatest QB fantasy season of all-time (2019 Lamar Jackson) was 27.7 FPG.

Matchups:

  • Denver is the 7th-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (-3.1 FPG) and the 3rd-toughest matchup for opposing WRs (-5.4). This should funnel offensive opportunity to the Baltimore RBs and Mark Andrews, who draw close to neutral matchups.

  • Baltimore is the 6th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing slot WRs (+2.5 FPG) and the 11th-softest for opposing outside WRs (+1.9). Given they rank as the 7th-toughest matchup for opposing RBs, maybe this is the week the Denver passing attack gets going.

Washington Commanders (-2.5) @ New York Giants (O/U: 40.5)

Trends:

  • Brian Robinson has earned at least 15 carries in three straight games, culminating in a season-high 20.5 FPs in Week 12. He profiles as an underrated workhorse in games Washington can win. The Commanders’ implied win probability in Week 13 is 58%.

  • Over the last three weeks, Logan Thomas has earned a 75% route share and a 19% target share, recording 8.0 XFP/G over that stretch.

  • Curtis Samuel hasn’t exceeded a 16% target share since Week 7. Given his low aDOT (6.2), he needs serious volume to be fantasy relevant. And it’s just not happening.

  • Richie James might suck (1.52 career YPRR), but he immediately joined Darius Slayton as the lead WR in this offense, earning a team-leading 85% route share and tying with Slayton in target share (21%). He’s very in play this week at just $3,800 on DraftKings.

  • Saquon Barkley averages a mediocre (for him) 18.4 DraftKings FPG in his 17 career games with a total under 42.0. While he’s fallen under double-digit DraftKings points in 35% of those games, he has posted games of 32.7 and 46.9 FPs – both against Washington. So, the low total reduces his overall expectation but doesn’t totally negate his upside.

Matchups:

  • Washington is the 3rd-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs (-2.3 FPG) but the 5th-softest matchup for opposing outside WRs (+2.9 FPG). A poor matchup for Saquon Barkley, but an encouraging matchup for Darius Slayton.

  • The Giants are the 5th-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing slot WRs (-2.0 FPG), but the 10th-softest matchup for outside WRs (+1.9 FPG). So, this sets up nicely for Terry McLaurin.

New York Jets (+3.0) @ Minnesota Vikings (O/U: 45.5)

Trends:

  • Mike White has four career starts, scoring 26.1, 24.8, 8.1, and 2.0 fantasy points in those games. He’s either finished as a mid- to high-end QB1, or posted a useless score. He’s the ideal GPP quarterback.

  • Michael Carter is dealing with an ankle injury and is questionable to play in Week 13. Zonovan Knight led the backfield in Week 12, earning a 48% snap share and 51% of backfield XFP (12.0). But keep in mind this is fantasy’s 8th-worst backfield by production (20.2 FPG) since Breece Hall was injured. Still, if Carter were ruled out, Knight would be in play at just $4,600 on DraftKings.

  • I do have some concerns about Elijah Moore’s role, though. Moore logged a meager 40% route share and a 7.1% target share, while Corey Davis logged much closer to a full-time role (67% route share and 11% target share). Garrett Wilson is the only NYJ WR that can be fully trusted, even with the QB change.

  • Dalvin Cook has exceeded 20.0 XFP in four of his last five games. In his first six games of the season, he never exceeded 20.0 XFP.

  • Cook has also earned 23 targets over his last five games, compared to just 16 targets in his first six games. He’s back to being a bell cow, granted he just hasn’t had the ceiling game to drive that home.

  • No WR has as many 20.0 XFP games as Justin Jefferson (6). And only Stefon Diggs and Davante Adams have as many double-digit target games (7) as Jefferson. His volume is as consistent as can be.

  • Since joining the Vikings, TJ Hockenson has averaged 16.0 XFP/G, 8.8 targets per game, and 0.7 XTD/G. Relative to the usage numbers Mark Andrews has put up over the full season, Vikings Hockenson has been 12% better, 13% better, and 17% better.

Matchups:

  • Minnesota is the 9th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (+1.9 FPG). They’ve allowed the 4th-most passing yards (2,844), the most YPA (8.1), and the 4th-highest completion percentage over expectation (+4.4%). A great matchup for Mike White.

  • The Vikings are the softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing outside WRs (+7.0 FPG), but the 5th-toughest matchup for opposing slot WRs. Good news for Corey Davis and Garrett Wilson, and bad news for Elijah Moore (who ran 61% of his routes in the slot in Week 12).

  • Plus, the Vikings are the 6th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing TEs (+2.1 FPG). A sneaky spot for Tyler Conklin.

  • The Jets are the 6th-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (-3.6 FPG) and the 2nd-toughest matchup for opposing WRs (-5.9 FPG). Given the Jets are a much closer to neutral matchup for opposing RBs (-0.1 FPG), I would expect the Vikings to lean a bit heavier on Dalvin Cook this week.

Cleveland Browns (-7.0) @ Houston Texans (O/U: 47.0)

Trends:

  • Deshaun Watson has played three full NFL seasons across his career, finishing as the QB6 (2020), QB2 (2019), and the QB6 (2018) – averaging 22.3 FPG across that sample (QB6 this season).

  • The Browns tout a 27.0 implied team total this week. Watson has averaged an impressive 25.5 DraftKings FPG in his 14 career games with an implied total of 26.0 or more – a mark that would rank 4th-best among slate-eligible QBs. Despite this, Watson is priced as the QB8 on DraftKings.

  • And in wins of 6-points or more (17 instances), Watson averages an absurd 28.1 FPG. For perspective, that’s 0.4 FPG better than the greatest QB fantasy season of all-time (2019 Lamar Jackson).

  • Nick Chubb averages 20.9 FPG as a favorite of 5.0-points or more across his career, but just 14.6 FPG outside of that split.

  • David Njoku has averaged 11.9 XFP/G, 14.2 FPG, 68.0 YPG, 7.2 targets per game, and 50.5 air yards per game over his last 6 games with a route share over 45%. Among slate-eligible TEs over the full season, those numbers rank 5th, 3rd, 2nd, 4th, and 8th. Njoku is priced as the TE9 on DraftKings ($3,900) presenting obvious value.

  • I think it’s fair to call Nico Collins the Texans’ WR1. He’s led the team in both target share (24%) and route share (70%) over the last three weeks, posting 12.0 FPG and 13.8 XFP/G.

  • Dameon Pierce has totally flopped these last two weeks, earning just 16 rushing yards on 15 carries in a pair of blowout losses for Houston. But, I think he could go massively under-owned in a great matchup (discussed below).

Matchups:

  • The Browns are the 4th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs (+3.8 FPG). They also rank 5th-worst in YPC allowed (4.9), 4th-worst in explosive play% (6.8%), and 2nd-worst in yards before contact per carry allowed (2.1). This is the perfect matchup for Dameon Pierce, if Houston can avoid getting blown out.

  • Cleveland is the single-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing slot WRs (-4.7 FPG), but the 4th-softest matchup for opposing outside WRs (+3.4 FPG). A good spot for Nico Collins and Brandin Cooks, but a poor matchup for Chris Moore.

  • Houston is the single-softest matchup for opposing RBs on the ground, allowing +5.9 schedule-adjusted rushing FPG to RBs. This is the perfect matchup for Nick Chubb.

  • The Texans are the 3rd-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (-4.4 FPG) and the 2nd-toughest matchup for opposing slot WRs (-4.5 FPG). A poor matchup for Deshaun Watson and David Bell.

  • But, Houston is the 5th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing TEs (+2.3 FPG). So, not only does David Njoku get a QB upgrade, but he gets a strong matchup.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5) @ Detroit Lions (O/U: 51.5)

Trends:

  • Trevor Lawrence is PFF’s 2nd-highest graded passer Week 9 (90.3 passing grade). Maybe he’s finally living up to his draft pedigree. But I still have some concerns, given how streaky Lawrence has been this season. He’s posted a PFF passing grade of 62.2 or worse in six of his 11 games this season, and from Week’s 4 through 8, he was PFF’s worst-graded QB (44.7) among the passers with at least 100 attempts.

  • Travis Etienne played just 5 snaps in Week 12, but appears likely to play Week 13. Still, he carries significant risk…

  • Christian Kirk’s target volume is right there with the NFL’s elite in terms of consistency. Kirk has nine games with a target share of 20% or greater, the 2nd-most in the NFL (granted, it’s a nine-way tie for 2nd place).

  • D’Andre Swift earned his best workload since Week 1 on Thanksgiving, ending the game with 13 opportunities and 18.6 XFP (season-high). Is he back? I’m not sure, but I can’t think of a much better time for a usage bump then after a long week. Plus, he’s off the injury report for the first time since Week 1.

  • Amon-Ra St. Brown averages 22.5 DraftKings FPG in his 6 games this season with an implied team total of 22.0 or more. That ranks 5th-best among slate-eligible WRs, but St. Brown is priced as the WR9 on DraftKings this week ($7,100).

  • DJ Chark was eased back in Week 11 with a 15% route share, but returned to a full-time role in Week 12 with an 82% route share and 14% target share. He’s interesting for game stacks given his team-leading 18.7 aDOT and $3,800 DraftKings price tag.

Matchups:

  • The Lions are the single-softest matchup for opposing QBs, allowing +6.4 schedule-adjusted FPG. Granted, most of that has come on the ground (+4.6 FPG), so it’s a good, but not great, matchup for Trevor Lawrence.

  • Detroit is the 3rd-softest matchup for opposing WRs, allowing +5.0 schedule-adjusted FPG. And they are the 3rd-softest matchup for opposing TEs (+4.0 FPG). A great spot for the Jacksonville pass catchers.

  • The Jaguars are the 7th-softest matchup for opposing WRs, allowing +2.5 schedule-adjusted FPG.

Tennessee Titans (+5.5) @ Philadelphia Eagles (O/U: 44.5)

Trends:

  • Since 2019, Derrick Henry averages 24.7 FPG in wins, but just 13.8 FPG in losses. The Titans implied win probability this week is 33%.

  • Treylon Burks has led Tennessee pass catchers in XFP in the last two weeks, averaging 14.0 XFP/G. That would rank 13th-best among slate-eligible WRs, yet Burks is priced as the WR41 ($4,600) on DraftKings.

  • Jalen Hurts has five games this season with 15 or more rushing attempts (including each of his last two games). That ties 2019 Lamar Jackson for the most games with 15 or more rush attempts by a QB all-time, and Hurts still has six games left.

  • The 9.8 rushing FPG Hurts is averaging this season is the 5th-most by a QB, all-time.

  • 70% of Hurts’ fantasy scoring has come in the first half of play. Tennessee may need to keep this game close to trigger a slate-breaking performance from the Eagles’ QB.

  • And Hurts’ red zone role is all-time great, too.

  • Philadelphia TEs have been completely worthless for fantasy since Dallas Goedert went down, collectively averaging a 4.2% target share over the last two weeks.

  • The extra volume is funneled to Philadelphia’s WRs, with DeVonta Smith posting his two best target shares (39% and 36%) in the last two games. Quez Watkins posted his best target share of the season (20%) in Week 12, and AJ Brown has averaged a very strong 27% target share since Goedert was hurt. Smith has the lowest aDOT (9.1) of the group, so it looks like the Eagles are relying on him for more short-area targets in Goedert’s (5.1 aDOT) absence.

Matchups:

  • The Eagles have been the single-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for both opposing QBs (-4.8 FPG) and outside WRs (-5.7 FPG). Tennessee should rely heavily on Derrick Henry in a mostly neutral schedule-adjusted matchup (-0.1 FPG).

  • The Titans are the 2nd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing outside WRs (+5.9 FPG) and the 8th-softest matchup for opposing QBs (+2.0 FPG). Expect a big day from AJ Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Jalen Hurts.

Seattle Seahawks (-7.5) @ Los Angeles Rams (O/U: 41.5)

Trends:

  • Seattle has the 3rd-highest pass rate over expectation (+10%) since Week 8. They are letting Geno Smith cook.

  • Smith ranks 7th among QBs in PFF passing grade (81.2), 2nd in completion percentage above expectation (+5.6%), and 4th in EPA per play (0.09). He’s been incredible.

  • Kenneth Walker remains the pass game leader out of the backfield. In the four weeks since Travis Homer returned to the lineup, Walker has posted a 43% route share and 13% target share, compared to just 19% and 6% for Homer.

  • DK Metcalf ranks 2nd among all WRs in first read target share (43%) since Week 9. Tyler Lockett ranks 60th (18%).

  • Bryce Perkins has 14 carries for 83 total rushing yards over his last two games. And that’s really the only good thing we can say about him, given he threw for just 100 yards last week in his first career start.

  • John Wolford could also be in contention to start in Week 13, but it’s nearly impossible to consider him in play for DFS with Sean McVay hinting that we could see both Wolford and Perkins in this Week 13 matchup.

  • With no Cooper Kupp, Van Jefferson has led the Rams pass catchers in XFP/G (9.5). Even at just $4,800 on DraftKings, I have little faith he can post a slate-breaking performance given how brutal this offense has looked recently.

  • Tyler Higbee’s route participation fell to just 37% in Week 12. He’s not remotely in play.

Matchups:

  • Seattle is the 2nd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing TEs (+5.2 FPG). I would almost be excited about playing Tyler Higbee if his route share was that of a part-time player (see above).

  • The Rams are the 3rd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing outside WRs (+4.0 FPG). This is a great matchup for both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.

Miami Dolphins (+4.0) @ San Francisco 49ers (O/U: 46.5)

Trends:

  • Tua Tagovailoa leads the NFL in fantasy points per dropback (0.59), and passing yards per game (324.0) in his seven healthy starts this season, averaging 23.2 FPG (QB4).

  • Miami has posted a +8.3% pass rate over expectation in Tagovailoa’s seven healthy games. That ranks 3rd among all teams over the full season.

  • Tyreek Hill averages an absurd 26.9 DraftKings FPG as an underdog across his career (18 instances). He’s scored over 40.0 DraftKings points in four of those games (22%). He’s fallen under 20.0 DraftKings points in just 6 of those games (33%).

  • Hill leads all WRs in YPPR (3.6) and TPRR (0.33). He’s simply the best WR in football.

  • Deebo Samuel’s workload has been about 24% worse since Christian McCaffrey joined the team. He averaged 16.1 XFP/G pre-McCaffrey, but just 12.2 XFP/G post-McCaffrey.

  • That said, McCaffrey is dealing with a knee issue and appears questionable. If he’s limited or out, I would expect Deebo to return to more of an alpha role, granted that’s entirely dependent on McCaffrey’s health.

Matchups:

  • San Francisco is the 2nd-toughest matchup for opposing RBs (-4.1 FPG) by schedule-adjusted FPG allowed. Expect Miami to lean into the passing game a bit more than usual here.

  • The 49ers are still a tough matchup for opposing QBs, though. They’ve allowed the 5th-fewest schedule-adjusted FPG (-3.7) to opposing QBs this season.

  • Miami is the 4th-softest matchup for opposing QBs by schedule-adjusted FPG allowed (+3.5), setting up a great matchup for Jimmy Garoppolo.

  • The Dolphins have also been vulnerable to receiving RBs this season, allowing +3.0 schedule-adjusted receiving FPG (3rd-most).

Kansas City Chiefs (-2.0) @ Cincinnati Bengals (O/U: 52.5)

Trends:

  • Ja’Marr Chase returning is huge for Joe Burrow. Burrow averages 25.1 FPG (~QB2) in games Chase plays, but 21.3 FPG (~QB6) in games without Chase.

  • Chase has played six career games with a total of 49.0 or more, and he averages 26.0 DraftKings FPG in those contests.

  • Over the last three seasons, Joe Mixon has averaged 21.6 DraftKings FPG and 19.6 FanDuel FPG in his 18 games when Cincinnati’s implied team total is 24.5 or higher. Among slate-eligible RBs, those marks rank 3rd- and 2nd-best. Despite this, Mixon is priced as the RB8 on DraftKings ($7,100) granted he is on the questionable side with a concussion.

  • The three best games of Tee Higgins’ career have come in games where Cincinnati’s implied team total is 24.0 or higher. It’s 25.25 in Week 13.

  • Patrick Mahomes averages an incredible 28.3 FPG in games with a total of 50.0 or higher.

  • Isiah Pacheco has dominated high-leverage carries over the last three weeks for Kansas City. He’s earned 83% of red zone carries (15) and 100% of inside the 5 carries (5) since Week 10. Among all RBs, those numbers both rank 2nd.

  • Skyy Moore has earned an 18% target share over the last two weeks, granted on a route share of just 35%. He’s an interesting salary-saving piece in game stacks at just $3,100 if JuJu Smith-Schuster and Kadarius Toney sit this game out.

  • Travis Kelce is currently on pace for the best fantasy season by a TE ever, averaging 21.7 FPG. He’s averaging +1.5 more FPG in games with a total of 50.0 or higher (23.2 FPG) this season.

Matchups:

  • Kansas City is the 2nd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs through the air, allowing +3.1 passing FPG. The perfect matchup for Joe Burrow.

  • The Chiefs are also the 9th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing WRs (+2.1) FPG, so it’s also a strong spot for these talented Bengals pass catchers.

  • The Bengals are the 9th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing slot WRs (+1.7 FPG), but the 11th-toughest matchup for opposing outside WRs (-2.5 FPG). A good spot for the KC slot WRs (Smith-Schuster and Skyy Moore).

Los Angeles Chargers (-1.5) @ Las Vegas Raiders (O/U: 50.5)

Trends:

  • Austin Ekeler is on pace for 151 targets (the current single-season record for RBs is 142) and 123 receptions (the record is 116).

  • Ekeler is providing 14.5 receiving FPG this season, more than Chris Olave, Mike Evans, and DK Metcalf. Ekeler is a mid-range WR2 who also happens to earn 10 carries per game.

  • Keenan Allen has averaged a solid 16.1 XFP/G and 14.2 FPG in his two healthy games this season. Those numbers rank 7th- and 13th-best among slate-eligible WRs. Allen is priced as the WR12 on DraftKings this week.

  • Josh Jacobs has shown an immense ceiling this season, exceeding 30.0 fantasy points in four contests (the most of any RB) while lighting up the Seattle defense in Week 12 for 229 yards (the most of any player this season) and 48.4 fantasy points (the 38th-best fantasy performance by a RB all-time).

  • Jacobs is averaging an absurd 34.6 FPG in Raiders wins, but just 14.9 FPG in Raiders’ losses. The Raiders’ implied win probability this week is 48%.

  • Davante Adams has been far more effective as an underdog this season (26.8 FPG) than as a favorite (18.3 FPG).

  • Adams has exceeded a 30% target share in seven games this season (most of any player) and a 40% target share in three games (most of any player).

  • Adams leads all players in target share (37%) over the last four weeks. His volume is just off the charts.

  • Foster Moreau ranks 8th in XFP/G (9.9), 9th in targets per game (5.4), and 1st in end zone targets per game (1.0) among TEs since Week 8. He’s the TE12 ($3,600) by DraftKings salary this week, presenting decent value.

Matchups:

  • It’s hard to find a better matchup for RBs than the Los Angeles Chargers. They rank as the 3rd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup (+4.0 FPG), giving up a league-leading 5.4 YPC, the 5th-highest explosive play% (6.9%), and the most yards after contact per attempt (3.2). A truly elite spot for Josh Jacobs.

  • Las Vegas ranks as the 2nd-softest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (+5.4 FPG, and the single-softest matchup for both receiving RBs (+4.0 FPG) and slot WRs (+5.1). The ideal matchup for Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, and Keenan Allen.

Jake Tribbey is a recent college graduate and lifelong football fan obsessed with extracting every edge possible from NFL DFS, Best Ball, and player props/futures.