Week 12 Underdog Pick Em


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Week 12 Underdog Pick Em

Welcome to a brand new feature on Fantasy Points! Each week, I’ll go through some of my favorite Underdog Fantasy props so we can make a parlay (or multiple) based on those picks! It is very important to note that for Underdog Fantasy Pick ‘Em, you can’t just play one single prop by itself, you need to have at least a two-team parlay, so there won’t be any one bet that I emphasize more than the others.

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Before we get going, a quick overview of how Underdog Fantasy scoring rolls: half-PPR scoring, passing yards points are 1 point per every 25 yards, 4-point passing touchdowns, -1 point for an interception. Since this typically drops on Fridays, this will not include a Thursday Night Football prop. Let’s dive right into this week’s props!

Current Record: 21-12-1; Week 11: 2-1

Amari Cooper OVER 56.5 Receiving Yards

Cooper gets a home game! The talented wide receiver has struggled on the road this season, averaging nearly 3 catches and 30 yards per game more at home than he does on the road. The Browns will need to throw the football in this one as the Buccaneers are one of the more talented rushing defenses in the NFL.

Cooper also gets the benefit of facing one of the worse passing defenses in the league. The Bucs give up the 5th most passing yards per game to wideouts. They also give up 61% of their total fantasy points allowed to wide receivers that line up on the outside like Cooper does, giving him an advantage.

Latavius Murray OVER 54.5 Rushing Yards

Denver unceremoniously cut incumbent Melvin Gordon earlier this week after yet another fumble, so the entire backfield nearly has worked its way into Murray’s favor finally, and he gets a solid matchup to strut his stuff here.

The Panthers rank a middling 15th in rushing yards given up to running backs, but there is still value here with Chase Edmonds on IR and newly signed Marlon Mack still getting acclimated. With Sam Darnold taking over for the Panthers at the QB spot, there may be a few turnovers for Murray to take advantage of, and he’s averaged 4.8 yards per carry over his last two games with at least 11 carries in both.

Joe Burrow OVER 36.5 Passing Attempts

This line does not seem to be taking into account two very important factors: the absence of Joe Mixon leading to more work for Samaje Perine, and the return of Ja’Marr Chase (even if he’s still a little wobbly).

Looking at the Mixon absence first, Perine is a dumpoff generator, as he has proven to be very skilled in the passing game. Not only do the Titans allow the most passing attempts per game with over 40, but they also allow the most targets to running backs, allowing nearly 10 per game. Perine should be extremely busy. I also expect Chase to get a handful of looks in this game along with Burrow’s usual complement of weapons, and we could see the Bengals just choose to lean heavily on their aerial attack.

Final Thoughts

When we load all of these plays into Underdog Fantasy’s prop parlay machine, we receive 6-1 odds on this parlay, meaning if you bet $100 and all three legs hit, you will win $600 total!

Alternatively, you can choose to get Insurance on your parlay, for no additional cost. With insurance, if one of your legs doesn’t hit but the other two do, you get paid at 1-1 odds, while winning at 3-1 odds if you still hit all three legs.