DFS research can be tough. We may not always know what to look for, or where to look for it.
But this article helps solve that problem – by providing some early-week research to give readers solid footing for the upcoming Week 11 DFS slate.
Detroit Lions (+3) @ New York Giants (O/U: 46.0)
Over his career, Saquon Barkley has only ever been a favorite 12 times, and he averages 26.4 DraftKings FPG and 23.1 FanDuel FPG in those contests – roughly a 24% improvement on his baseline.
Daniel Jones needs rushing production to post strong fantasy outings. He hasn’t exceeded 220 passing yards in a game this season, and all his 20.0 or more fantasy point performances have one thing in common: more than 60 rushing yards and at least 1 rushing TD.
Darius Slayton has posted a route share of over 70% in his last three games, while leading the Giants’ WRs in both target share (21.4%) and XFP/G (9.0) in each of the last two weeks. Granted, I’m still not excited to play him, given the limitations Daniel Jones has shown as a passer this season.
Amon-Ra St. Brown has earned an absurd 41% target share over his last two games – exceeding a 37.5% target share in both contests. Remember that across the entire season, only 16 players have earned more than a 35% target share in two or more games.
The Lions’ TE situation is a pure timeshare. None of James Mitchell, Shane Zylstra, or Brock Wright managed to exceed a 40% route share in Week 10. Brock Wright did pace the group in XFP (5.0).
And the Lions’ backfield is similarly gross. Jamaal Williams led the backfield with 12.3 XFP and a 40% snap share. D’Andre Swift managed just a 31% snap share a 23% route share – numbers that will make it nearly impossible for him to exceed low-end RB2 production on a weekly basis.
The Lions are the single-most favorable matchup for rushing QBs, allowing +4.2 schedule-adjusted rushing FPG – 24% worse than the No. 2 team (Chicago). Overall, the Lions are the 2nd-best schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (+6.5 FPG). The perfect spot for Daniel Jones.
The Giants are the 7th-best schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing outside WRs (+3.0 FPG), and the 12th-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing slot WRs (-0.8). This may seem like a negative for Amon-Ra St. Brown, but he’s run 51% of his routes on the outside over his last three games due to the Lions’ WR injuries, so it’s likely a slight boost.
New York Jets (+3) @ New England Patriots (O/U: 38.5)
- Week 9 saw a nearly perfectly even split in backfield usage for Michael Carter and James Robinson. Robinson earned a 40% snap share and 9.5 XFP, while Carter recorded a 52% snap share and 8.2 XFP. Neither RB can be counted on this week in the lowest total game of the slate.
In college, only 10% of Elijah Moore's career receiving yards came lined up out-wide— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) November 9, 2022
He averaged 157.1 YFS per game in his final season, the most by any Power 5 WR since at least 2000 https://t.co/CPnbFtjUHd
Elijah Moore is getting moved to the slot (granted, it’s not official and is primarily a way to get him more opportunities). I’m not sure it’s worth much, given how anemic the Jets’ passing attack has been this season, but I wanted to dive in.
The Jets’ leading slot WR has averaged 5.9 targets per game and 10.5 XFP/G this season. That’s ~WR50 levels of usage, which doesn’t generate much optimism.
But, even 5.9 targets per game in a full-time role would be massive for Moore, who has averaged just a 29% route share while earning 0 targets over his last two games.
Why? Well, Moore has averaged 16.3 FPG (WR13) in his seven career games with 6 or more targets. So, he could smash his current price tag (WR52 on DraftKings, WR67 on Fanduel) even with the modest volume the Jets’ leading slot WR has earned this season.
In the last game Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris played together, Stevenson earned 73% of backfield XFP, a 25% target share, and 47% of backfield routes. Stevenson joins Austin Ekeler as the only RBs to earn at least 18.0 XFP in each of their last four games – and Stevenson has played two of those games with Damien Harris.
Jakobi Meyers is one of just eight players to earn a 35% target share or better in at least three games this season. Interestingly, he averages a solid 14.0 FPG in his nine career games with a total of 40.0 or lower, suggesting he’s still viable in this low-total contest. Granted, it’s reasonable to question his upside, as Meyers has exceeded 20.0 fantasy points just three times in his last 38 games.
The Jets are the 2nd-toughest matchup for opposing QBs through the air, allowing -4.3 schedule-adjusted passing FPG. This is a death blow to Mac Jones, who has earned 91% of his career fantasy production passing the ball.
The Jets also profile as a slot funnel. They are the 3rd-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing outside WRs (-6.2 FPG), while ranking slightly better than neutral against opposing slots (+0.3 FPG). Great news for Jakobi Meyers.
New England has been the single-toughest matchup for opposing RBs this season, allowing -3.9 schedule-adjusted FPG.
Washington Commanders (-3.5) @ Houston Texans (O/U: 40.5)
Antonio Gibson’s route share jumped from 28% in his first eight games with JD McKissic, to a 54% route share without JD McKissic. Granted, his overall usage (measure in XFP/G) jumped from just 14.1 to 14.9 without McKissic. I would imagine Washington would need to get steamrolled for Gibson’s increased pass-game role to amount to a substantial boost to his XFP/G.
Red zone usage over the last three weeks has been a close to even split for Gibson and Brian Robinson. Gibson has logged 8 red zone opportunities, compared to 5 for Robinson, while both players have logged 2 goal line carries each. It’s very difficult to make a compelling upside case for either player for as long as this continues, even in a great matchup (which we will discuss below).
Terry McLaurin has earned at least a 25% target share (33% average) in each of Taylor Heinicke’s four starts. McLaurin posted no greater than a 21% target share (16% average) in any game Carson Wentz started. In effect, Heinicke’s presence as the starter has doubled McLaurin’s workload.
The opposite has been true for Curtis Samuel, who earned greater than a 20% target share (22% average) in five of six games with Carson Wentz, but only one of four games with Heinicke (17% average).
Logan Thomas posted his highest route share (79%) and target share (16%) of the season in Week 10. He pops as a DraftKings value, assuming that usage carries into Week 11, as he’s just $2,800.
Dameon Pierce appears to have settled in as a highest-end workhorse, rather than a true bell cow. He’s captured an incredible 96% of backfield carries, but just 65% of backfield XFP due to his meager 27% route share and 8% target share over the last two weeks. Until he can displace Rex Burkhead for the receiving role, he’ll profile as gamescript dependent.
Houston’s WRs were in a rather odd rotation in Week 10. No WR exceeded a 70% route share, while Phillip Dorsett and Chris Moore combined for a 27% target share and 37% of WR XFP.
But, it is important to note that Nico Collins led the team with 17.5 XFP and a 68% route share, and we could argue he’s right there with Brandin Cooks as the top receiving option on the team – especially after Brandin Cooks was removed as a captain. With this in mind, Collins profiles as a solid value at just $4,100 on DraftKings this week.
There isn’t a better matchup for opposing RBs than the Texans. HOU is allowing the most schedule-adjusted FPG (+5.9) and the most schedule-adjusted rushing FPG (+7.2) to opposing RBs. They’ve also allowed the most yards after contact (923), the 4th-highest YPC (5.2), and the most missed tackles (80) to opposing RBs this season.
WAS has been the single-toughest matchup for opposing RBs on the ground, allowing -3.6 schedule-adjusted rushing FPG. Bad news for Dameon Pierce.
The Commanders are the 5th-best matchup for opposing outside WRs by schedule-adjusted FPG allowed (+5.1), setting up strong matchups for both Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins.
Chicago Bears (+3) @ Atlanta Falcons (O/U: 50.5)
Justin Field's last two games were the 21st- and 40th-best fantasy outings by a QB all-time (using DK scoring).— Jake Tribbey (@JakeTribbey) November 14, 2022
The best game of Josh Allen's career is the 56th-best QB fantasy performance of all time.
Justin Fields is playing like he’s the best QB in fantasy football, averaging 32.9 fantasy points per game and 116.8 rushing YPG over his last four contests – marks that would be 19% and 45% better than the current single-season records among QBs if sustained for an entire season.
Fields' last two performances (178 and 147 rushing yards) are the best and 7th-best QB rushing games of all-time during the regular season. There have only been nine instances of a QB rushing for more than 140 yards, and Fields has done that in back-to-back games. Insane.
Fields has also taken a crucial step forward as a passer, seeing his PFF passing grade go from 45.1 in Weeks 1 through 5 to 58.9 over the last five weeks. That may not seem like much, but it’s the difference between being one of the worst passers in the NFL, and being roughly average.
Khalil Herbert is on IR. That leaves David Montgomery as the presumptive bell cow, while Trestan Ebner will soak up some pass game usage and spell Montgomery when he needs rest. So far this season, Montgomery and Herbert have averaged 17.3 XFP/G – a mark that would rank 5th-best among all RBs over the full season, equivalent to Derrick Henry’s 2022 workload. Even if Montgomery earns 80% of that workload, he’s still a screaming value at just $6,100 on DraftKings.
It looked like Chase Claypool would be a big part of this offense after he earned 11.2 XFP on a 38% route share in Week 9. But, Week 10 saw Claypool’s route share reduced to 31%, and he earned just 3.8 XFP – a nearly identical workload to Byron Pringle (38% route share, 3.7 XFP).
Darnell Mooney is one of 10 WRs to exceed a 20% target share at least eight times this season. He’s also the only Bears’ WR to exceed a 55% route share in either of the last two weeks (93% average). He would have some real upside if the Bears weren’t attempting a league-low 20.8 pass attempts per game.
Cole Kmet has massively exceeded his expectation these last two weeks, averaging 18.2 FPG on a 10.3 XFP/G workload. He profiles as an easy fade if he projects for significant ownership, given that massive overperformance on a mediocre 67% route share.
Confusingly, Marcus Mariota has played in two games this season with a total of 48.0 or higher, and he averaged just 7.1 FPG in those contests.
Cordarrelle Patterson’s role just isn’t very good. Since returning to the lineup, he’s averaged 9.7 XFP/G, a 4% target share, and a 31% route share. He’s only played on 29% of Atlanta’s snaps when they are trailing, which is significantly less than Tyler Allgeier (48%) over these last two weeks. His only hope of a big fantasy outing is scoring TDs.
The Bears are the 2nd-best schedule-adjusted matchup for QBs on the ground (+3.4 rushing FPG), but the 5th-toughest matchup for opposing QBs through the air (-2.8). Look for Mariota to use his legs more in this contest.
Chicago is also the 3rd-toughest matchup for opposing outside WRs by schedule-adjusted FPG allowed (-4.9). Bad news for Drake London.
Atlanta is the 3rd-best matchup for opposing QBs by schedule-adjusted FPG allowed (+4.5) and the single-best matchup for opposing WRs (+10.8) – nearly 69% worst than the 2nd-worst team by that metric. The perfect spot for Darnell Mooney and the rest of the Bears’ passing attack.
Cleveland Browns (+8.5) @ Buffalo Bills (O/U: 43.5)
- Amari Cooper has been notoriously impacted by location, posting most of his best games at home since 2019.
Since 2019…— Jake Tribbey (@JakeTribbey) November 15, 2022
Amari at home (28 games): 17.4 FPG, 7.9 targets/G, 82.6 YPG
Amari on the road (28 games): 11.7 FPG, 7.1 targets/G, 51.4 YPG
Some guys just love the comfort of sleeping on their own mattress #Analytics https://t.co/JcgaEDQnkZ
I would be heavily interested in David Njoku at $3,900 (TE10) on DraftKings if he plays. Over his last five games (including Week 7 where he left the game in the 3rd quarter due to injury), Njoku has averaged 11.6 XFP/G and 7.2 targets per game. Over the full season, those marks would rank 5th- and 2nd-best among slate-eligible TEs. He’s a clear value if he’s healthy.
Since 2019, Nick Chubb averages just 10.3 FPG in losses of 6.0-points or more. If Buffalo dominates, he’s total dust.
Jacoby Brissett has played in 12 career games as an underdog of 6.0-points or more, and he’s exceeded 17.0 DraftKings points just once, scoring a high of 23.5 DK points and averaging just 13.5 DraftKings FPG.
Josh Allen averages a strong 27.7 DraftKings FPG in his career as a favorite of 6.0-points or more (28 instances), and he’s exceeded 35.0 DraftKings points in 18% of those games.
Devin Singletary still seeing significant work post-Nyheim Hines trade. On Sunday:— Jake Tribbey (@JakeTribbey) November 14, 2022
72% of snaps
68% of backfield opportunities
56% of routes
66% of backfield red zone opportunities
100% of goal line opportunities
Nyheim Hines’ usage has barely amounted to anything so far. He’s played 10 total snaps, run 7 routes, and earned 2 targets. Given how desperate Buffalo appeared to be for a pass-catching RB, this is really strange.
Since joining Buffalo, Stefon Diggs has performed far better as a favorite (21.4 DraftKings FPG), than as an underdog (15.2 DraftKings FPG).
Isaiah McKenzie earned his best route share of the season in Week 10 (78%) – 25% better than his average route share in his previous games this season. Perhaps this is just noise, but it could signal that McKenzie is pushing for a true full-time role as Buffalo’s slot, rather than splitting reps with Khalil Shakir like he was in prior weeks.
Buffalo is the 2nd-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (-5.0 FPG) and the 3rd-toughest matchup for opposing TEs (-4.2 FPG). Tough matchups for both Brissett and Njoku.
The Browns are the 3rd-best schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing RBs, allowing +4.0 FPG. Great news for Devin Singletary.
Cleveland has also been weak against opposing outside WRs, ranking as the 6th-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup (+4.9). But they are much tougher against the slot, allowing -3.7 schedule-adjusted FPG (3rd-toughest). That should funnel production away from Isaiah McKenzie to Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs.
Carolina Panthers (+12.5) @ Baltimore Ravens (O/U: 43.5)
- The return of Chuba Hubbard didn’t slow down D’Onta Foreman – who earned 79% of backfield XFP, 68% of snaps, and even paced the backfield with a 29% route share. He profiles as a high-end RB2 for the remainder of the season, granted his extremely limited receiving workload suggests he may struggle in a game where the Panthers are huge underdogs.
With P.J. Walker dealing with a high ankle sprain, Panthers’ HC Steve Wilks told reporters that Baker Mayfield will start Sunday vs. Baltimore.— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 14, 2022
Baker Mayfield’s return is bad news for DJ Moore. Moore exceeded 19.0 fantasy points in two of PJ Walker’s four healthy starts, but he hasn’t gone over 13.3 fantasy points in any game with Baker Mayfield.
Since 2017, Mayfield has targeted outside WRs 14% less often than PJ Walker.
Lamar Jackson has historically crushed as a big favorite, averaging an absurd 28.0 DraftKings FPG and 26.7 FanDuel FPG when the Ravens are favored by 7.0-points or more (25 instances). He’s gone over 33.0 DraftKings points in 36% of those games.
Kenyan Drake dominated backfield usage without Gus Edwards, earning 82% of backfield XFP. With that said, Edwards is expected back this week.
John Harbaugh said TE Mark Andrews, like many of the Ravens injured players, has a “really good chance” of playing Sunday against the Panthers pic.twitter.com/4m9AQE14uL— Jamison Hensley (@jamisonhensley) November 14, 2022
Mark Andrews is at his cheapest price on DraftKings since Week 2, despite averaging 19.1 FPG and 9.5 targets per game in the six games he’s played this season without an injury designation. Among slate-eligible WRs, 19.1 FPG would rank 6th-best while 9.5 targets per game would rank 8th-best.
Despite this, Andrews is priced as the WR10 ($6,800, his cheapest price point since Week 2) on DraftKings – presenting value before we even acknowledge the massive relative advantage he provides thanks to his TE designation.
Carolina is the 5th-best matchup for opposing RBs per schedule-adjusted FPG allowed (+3.6). Good news for Gus Edwards and Kenyan Drake.
Baltimore is the 5th-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup (-2.2) for opposing RBs, setting up a tough matchup for D’Onta Foreman.
Baltimore is the 2nd-best schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing slot WRs (+4.6). That’s good news for Shi Smith, granted he has surpassed a 13% target share in just one game this season.
Los Angeles Rams (+4.0) @ New Orleans Saints (O/U: 38.5)
No Cooper Kupp has led to LA posting the 2nd-lowest implied team total (17.25) of any team in Week 11.
Kupp has been responsible for an absurd 39% of the Rams receiving yards since the start of 2021. Given how bad their ground game has been these last two seasons, it’s reasonable to call him their entire offense.
But, Kupp being out might help Tyler Higbee, who has averaged 15.5 FPG (TE2) in the four games Kupp has earned less than 8 targets since the start of 2021. He’s priced as the TE9 ($4,000) on DraftKings this week.
Dennis Allen on Monday asked about the #Saints QB situation and if Andy Dalton or Jameis Winston will start Sunday against the #RamsHouse— Fletcher Mackel (@FletcherWDSU) November 14, 2022
My opinion, I think NOLA makes change and goes back to Winston.
H/T @MikeTriplett w/questions pic.twitter.com/kJJAn0HC6A
If Jameis Winston starts, what changes?
So far this season, Winston’s aDOT (12.0) is 3.3 yards higher than Dalton’s (8.7) and easily the highest in the NFL overall. So, we would expect more aggressiveness downfield.
It’s also a ding to Alvin Kamara’s receiving workload, as he averaged 5.7 targets per game with Dalton but 7.2 targets per game with Jameis.
That said, Chris Olave would get a huge boost if Winston starts. Olave averaged 213.7 air yards per game and 17.1 XFP/G with Winston at QB, compared to 99.7 air yards per game and 13.5 XFP/G with Dalton.
Well, scratch that. Andy Dalton is the confirmed starter for Week 11.
The Saints have been the 3rd-worst defense against opposing right outside WRs by schedule-adjusted FPG allowed (+3.1). That’s a modest boost for Van Jefferson, who has run 38% of his routes from that alignment this season. Still, I wouldn’t get too excited about anyone in this Ram’s offense.
Tyler Higbee draws easily the toughest matchup for opposing TEs, with NO allowing -5.2 schedule-adjusted FPG. So, while his volume may drastically improve without Kupp, it’s a brutal matchup.
The Rams are the 2nd-best matchup for opposing outside WRs, allowing +5.8 schedule-adjusted FPG. Fire up Chris Olave.
LAR is a tough matchup for QBs, though, allowing -2.9 schedule-adjusted FPG (8th-fewest).
Philadelphia Eagles (-10.0) @ Indianapolis Colts (O/U: 44.0)
Jalen Hurts rushing has fallen off in recent weeks. In Weeks 1 through 5, he averaged 13.2 carries per game and 9.2 designed carries per game. But since Week 6, Hurts has averaged 6.5 carries per game and 5.5 designed carries per game. Perhaps this is the Eagles' attempt at preserving Hurts' health given the Eagles' current playoff postioning, but it certainly doesn’t help his fantasy value.
The other issue with Hurts? 73% of his fantasy scoring has occurred in the first half of games. The Colts will almost certainly need to keep it close for Hurts to post a ceiling performance.
The two best performances of Miles Sanders’ career have come in games where the Eagles were favored by 6.0-points or more. Still, he averages just 15.2 DraftKings FPG in that split, so I’m not falling over myself to play him at $6,900 on DraftKings this week.
Dallas Goedert is expected to miss extended time. Jack Stoll is certainly interesting at just $2,500 on DraftKings, as he’s the clear No. 2, earning a 21% route share and 79% of non-Goedert TE XFP for the Eagles this season.
Jonathan Taylor posted his best workload since his low ankle sprain (17.2 XFP) and an extremely encouraging 77% route share (the 3rd-highest route share of his career). It’s safe to assume he’s back to being a bell cow.
Parris Campbell has averaged 20.7 FPG and 10.7 targets per game in his last three games with Matt Ryan under center, compared to 6.4 FPG and 3.5 targets per game with Sam Ehlinger.
A similar trend can be noted for Michael Pittman, who has averaged 16.2 FPG and 11.3 targets per game over Ryan’s last three starts, but just 8.8 FPG and 7.5 targets per game with Ehlinger.
The Colts are easily the toughest matchup for opposing slot WRs, allowing -5.6 schedule-adjusted FPG – a mark that’s 44% better than the No. 2 team. So, I wouldn’t have high hopes for either Zach Pascal or Quez Watkins, both of whom run the majority of their routes from the slot.
The Eagles are the single-toughest matchup for opposing QBs, allowing the fewest schedule-adjusted FPG (-6.1). Matt Ryan will have an uphill battle to a big fantasy performance.
PHI is also a slot funnel, ranking 4th-toughest by schedule-adjusted FPG allowed to opposing outside WRs (-4.4) but perfectly neutral against slots (+0.1). Targets should be funneled Parris Campbell’s way.
Las Vegas Raiders (+2.5) @ Denver Broncos (O/U: 41.5)
Derek Carr’s upside remains nonexistent. He has zero games of 20.0 or more fantasy points this season. And since 2019, he has just one game of 25.0 or more fantasy points.
Josh Jacobs averages 20.8 FPG in wins, but just 12.3 FPG in losses since 2019. The Raiders implied win probability this week is 46%.
Foster Moreau has averaged 9.0 XFP/G, 5.8 targets per game, and a 88% route share in his four games without Darren Waller this season. Among slate-eligible TEs, those numbers rank 11th, 9th, and 1st. He presents moderate value as the TE12 by DraftKings salary ($3,700).
The Broncos' offense is the worst in the NFL, averaging just 14.6 PPG. If they had managed to score at least 18-points in regulation of every game this season, they would be 8-1.
Greg Dulcich has an awesome role, and one that suggests impressive upside. In his four games this season he ranks 8th among slate-eligible TEs in XFP/G (10.1), 7th in targets per game (6.0), and 3rd in air yards per game (71.3). He’s a clear value priced as the TE11 on DraftKings ($3,800).
With Jerry Jeudy injured on the first drive and KJ Hamler out, Kendall Hinton earned a 94% route share and 7.4 XFP – the 3rd-most of any Broncos pass catcher. He would be vaguely in play at $3,600 if both Jeudy and Hamler miss Week 11.
By schedule-adjusted FPG allowed, Denver is the 3rd-toughest matchup for opposing QBs (-4.6) and the 2nd-toughest matchup for opposing outside WRs (-6.2). They are much closer to neutral against opposing RBs on the ground (-0.2) and against slot WRs (-0.9), which should funnel more production to Josh Jacobs and the min-priced Keelan Cole.
The Raiders are the single-best matchup for opposing QBs, allowing +6.9 schedule-adjusted FPG. A sneaky spot to play Russell Wilson.
Las Vegas is easily the best matchup for opposing slot WRs, allowing +6.0 schedule-adjusted FPG – 30% more than the No. 2 team. That’s a boost to Jerry Jeudy (if he plays) or Kendall Hinton if Jeudy sits.
Dallas Cowboys (-1) @ Minnesota Vikings (O/U: 47.5)
Dalton Schultz has played four games with Dak Prescott this season, averaging 12.4 XFP/G, 13.5 FPG, and 7.3 targets per game – numbers that all rank 3rd-best among slate-eligible TEs. He’s a clear value priced as the TE6 ($4,300).
Since 2019, Dak Prescott has averaged 23.5 DraftKings FPG as a favorite but just 14.3 FPG as an underdog.
Dalvin Cook has exceeded 20.0 XFP in three consecutive games. He fell below that mark in his first six games this season.
Kirk Cousins has been about 10% more productive in one-score games since 2020, averaging 22.9 FPG when the margin of victory is within 7-points, compared to 19.9 FPG outside that split.
Adam Thielen’s volume has been consistent, as he’s earned at least 7 targets and 11.0 XFP in each of his last eight games. But, I’m not sure he has the juice for a true upside performance, as he hasn’t exceeded 20.0 fantasy points since Week 12 of 2021.
TJ Hockenson is the No. 2 receiver in this offense. He’s been 2nd among MIN pass catchers in XFP/G the last two weeks, averaging 17.2 XFP and 9.5 targets per game. Compared to Travis Kelce, he’s earning 95% as much XFP/G and 99% as many targets per game. But he costs just 66% of Kelce’s Week 11 salary (Kelce plays on SNF but has a $8,000 DraftKings salary for the full 14 game slate).
The Cowboys are the 4th-toughest matchup for opposing QBs by schedule-adjusted FPG allowed (-4.1).
Dallas has also been the premier run funnel this season, allowing a -5.5% pass rate over expectation (last).
The Vikings are the top matchup for opposing outside WRs, allowing +7.1 schedule-adjusted FPG. A great matchup for CeeDee Lamb and Michael Gallup.
Minnesota is the 3rd-toughest matchup for opposing RBs by schedule-adjusted FPG allowed (-2.8).
Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers (O/U: 41.0)
- The Bengals pass rate over expectation without Ja’Marr Chase was a very encouraging +13.9% in Week 8, but -2.1% in Week 9. It’s tough to know how pass happy the offense will be in Week 11, but it’s crucial to Joe Burrow’s success.
#Bengals: Pass Rate Over Expectation— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) October 24, 2022
Weeks 1-5: 11th (+3.2%)
Week 6: 1st (+19.2%)
Week 7: 1st (+23.5%)
Joe Burrow [2021-2022]
PROE over +3.5%: 32.2 FPG (8 games)
All other games: 18.2 FPG (15 games)#LeagueWinnerAlert
Joe Mixon has averaged 21.6 FPG in wins, but just 13.9 FPG in losses since 2019. The Bengals 66% implied win probability should help push Mixon toward a ceiling performance this week.
But, Mixon’s gamescript sensitivity this season does appear somewhat negated, as he’s averaged a much-improved 17.3 FPG in losses – largely thanks to his massively expanded receiving role.
Just nine games into the 2022 season, Mixon is just 5 targets away from his career high (55) while ranking 4th among all RBs in targets per game (5.6) and 11th in route share (49%).
The Bengals are without 22% of their targets and 18% of their team XFP without Ja’Marr Chase. If we assume the Bengals go pass-heavy in this contest, then Tee Higgins ($7,100) and Tyler Boyd ($6,500) are both underpriced on DraftKings.
Asked about how the passing game changes without Chase Claypool, Mike Tomlin says "I don't know if it does."— Chris Adamski (@C_AdamskiTrib) November 8, 2022
Says Pat Freiermuth's skillset, in effect, is redundant to what Claypool was doing. He will be the target in the middle of the field.
What did we see in Week 10? Pat Freiermuth earned his best workload of the season (15.9 XFP). In his three games with Pickett under center, Freiermuth has averaged 7.7 targets per game and 14.4 XFP/G – marks that rank 2nd-best among slate-eligible TEs. Despite this, Freiermuth is priced as the TE7 on DraftKings ($4,200), presenting obvious value.
Najee Harris has absolutely zero upside in this offense right now. He hasn’t exceeded 14.5 XFP since Week 2, and hasn’t gone over 14.0 fantasy points in a game this year while grading as PFF’s 47th-best rusher of 55 qualifiers.
The Steelers are the 2nd-best matchup for opposing WRs by schedule-adjusted FPG allowed (+5.3). They’ve also allowed the 2nd-highest percentage of deep throws (11.1%), the 2nd-most passing TDs (18), and the 4th-most fantasy points per dropback (0.48). The Bengals' passing attack should be able to do whatever they want in this game.
The Bengals are the 8th-toughest schedule-adjusted matchup for opposing QBs (-3.1 FPG) and the 6th-toughest matchup for opposing outside WRs (-3.7 FPG). Not great for the PIT passing attack, especially outside WRs George Pickens and Diontae Johnson.