My Power Ratings are designed to be a starting point for point-spread betting between two teams. They take into account recent performances, long-term injuries, coaching, and strength of schedule. These ratings are intended to help predict performances in the present, but they’re not necessarily predictive for the rest of the season. I will take my Power Ratings into account when I make my weekly against the spread picks, but I’ll also consider current injury reports, home-field advantage, weather, and other factors that may be relevant.
I’ll be updating my Power Ratings every week during the season, and this year’s format will include weekly betting notes and a look at the evolving futures markets to go along with my ratings.
Example: My top-rated team, the Bills (9), would be 15-point favorites on a neutral field over my worst-rated team, the Texans (-6). Using a two-point adjustment for home-field advantage (last year’s HFA average was 1.8 points), the Bills would be 17-point favorites over the Texans at home and 13-point favorites over the Texans on the road.
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Week 11 Power Ratings
| Rank | Team | Power Rating | 2021 Record (ATS) | Ratings Change | Super Bowl Odds |
| 1. | Buffalo Bills | 9 | 6-3 (4-4-1) | -.5 | +400 |
| 2. | Kansas City Chiefs | 7.5 | 7-2 (3-5-1) | +.5 | +500 |
| 3. | Philadelphia Eagles | 7 | 8-1 (5-4) | -.5 | +600 |
| 4. | Dallas Cowboys | 5.5 | 6-3 (6-3) | — | +900 |
| 5. | Baltimore Ravens | 5.5 | 6-3 (4-4-1) | — | +1400 |
| 6. | Miami Dolphins | 5 | 7-3 (5-5) | +1 | +1800 |
| 7. | San Francisco 49ers | 5 | 5-4 (4-5) | — | +900 |
| 8. | Minnesota Vikings | 4.5 | 8-1 (4-4-1) | +.5 | +1200 |
| 9. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 4 | 5-5 (3-6-1) | +2 | +1800 |
| 10. | Cincinnati Bengals | 3.5 | 5-4 (6-3) | — | +2800 |
| 11. | Seattle Seahawks | 2.5 | 6-4 (6-4) | -.5 | +5000 |
| 12. | Tennessee Titans | 2 | 6-3 (7-2) | — | +3000 |
| 13. | Los Angeles Chargers | 1.5 | 5-4 (6-3) | -.5 | +3500 |
| 14. | New England Patriots | 1.5 | 5-4 (5-3-1) | — | +6000 |
| 15. | New York Giants | 1 | 7-2 (7-2) | +.5 | +6000 |
| 16. | Green Bay Packers | 1 | 4-6 (4-6) | +1 | +7000 |
| 17. | New York Jets | .5 | 6-3 (6-3) | — | +6000 |
| 18. | Arizona Cardinals | 0 | 4-6 (5-5) | +.5 | +15000 |
| 19. | Cleveland Browns | 0 | 3-6 (4-5) | -.5 | +10000 |
| 20. | Jacksonville Jaguars | 0 | 3-7 (3-6-1) | -.5 | +20000 |
| 21. | Washington Commanders | -5 | 5-5 (5-4-1) | +1 | +15000 |
| 22. | Denver Broncos | -.5 | 3-6 (3-6) | — | +20000 |
| 23. | Pittsburgh Steelers | -1 | 3-6 (4-4-1) | +1 | +50000 |
| 24. | New Orleans Saints | -1 | 3-7 (3-7) | -.5 | +20000 |
| 25. | Los Angeles Rams | -1 | 3-6 (2-6-1) | -2 | +15000 |
| 26. | Las Vegas Raiders | -1 | 2-7 (3-6) | -1 | +30000 |
| 27. | Indianapolis Colts | -1.5 | 4-5-1 (4-6) | +2 | +20000 |
| 28. | Atlanta Falcons | -1.5 | 4-6 (6-4) | -.5 | +15000 |
| 29. | Detroit Lions | -1.5 | 3-6 (5-4) | +.5 | +50000 |
| 30. | Chicago Bears | -2.5 | 3-7 (4-5-1) | — | +100000 |
| 31. | Carolina Panthers | -4 | 3-7 (4-6) | +.5 | +50000 |
| 32. | Houston Texans | -6 | 1-7-1 (4-4-1) | — | +100000 |
Betting Notes
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Josh Allen has thrown six INTs and lost a fumble in his last 10 quarters of action, which has cost the Buffalo Bills three straight covers with outright losses in their last two games.
Patrick Mahomes has reeled off four straight games with 330+ passing yards and he has 3+ passing TDs in 5-of-9 games to vault into favorite status for the MVP.
The Philadelphia Eagles had three giveaways through eight games before turning it over four times in their first loss of the season.
Tony Pollard has exploded for 55.5 FP in the last two games without Ezekiel Elliott in the lineup, totaling 36/246/4 rushing and 4/29 receiving against the Bears and Packers.
Tua Tagovailoa had ticked off three TD passes and 285+ passing yards in three straight games, and he’s leading the league in YPA (9.1), TD rate (7.3%), and QB rating (118.4).
The San Francisco 49ers have the league’s most formidable 1-2 backfield punch with Christian McCaffrey and Elijah Mitchell teaming up for the first time for 165/1 scrimmage.
Justin Jefferson has reeled off 98+ receiving yards in six straight games after his heroic 10/193/1 receiving performance. He became the first player to hit 100+ receiving yards 20 times in his first three seasons.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers finally got their running game back on track and it was rookie Rachaad White leading the way with his first 100-yard game with 22/105 rushing.
Kenneth Walker got shut down on the ground for the first time with just 10/17 rushing, but he managed a career-best 6/55 receiving on eight targets after posting just 12/48 receiving in his first eight games.
Derrick Henry got held to just 2.8 YPC and to under 100+ scrimmage yards for the first time since Week 2, but the Titans still covered for the seventh consecutive game and they won outright for the sixth time in seven tries.
The Denver Broncos rank dead last in points per game (14.6) with a league-low 12 touchdowns in nine games after mustering just 10 points against Tennessee’s banged-up defense.
The Los Angeles Chargers managed just 52 yards and three first downs in the second half, and they averaged just 3.3 YPP after scoring on their opening drive of the game.
Saquon Barkley is coming off a career-high 35 carries on his way to 152/1 rushing, which was his fourth 100-yard performance of the season.
Christian Watson exploded for 4/107/3 receiving on eight targets (40% share) for 32.7 FP after posting just 10/88 receiving on 14 targets for 26.7 FP in his first six NFL games.
The Arizona Cardinals lost Zach Ertz (knee) for the rest of the season, but they have an exciting prospect in Trey McBride, a 2022 second-round pick, waiting in the wings to take over for the next couple of weeks.
The Cleveland Browns are coming off a lifeless effort against the Dolphins, losing by 22 points as three-point road underdogs while allowing 7.3 yards per play and 491 total yards.
Christian Kirk is trending back up with 9+ targets, 7+ catches, 76+ yards, and 17+ FP in three of his last four games after totaling just 7/95/1 receiving on 17 targets for 22.2 FP in Weeks 4-6.
Terry McLaurin posted season-highs in catches (8), receiving yards (128), targets (11), and FP (20.8) against the Eagles. He’s now averaging 6.0/92.5 receiving per game since Taylor Heinicke took over at QB after averaging 3.7/61.2 receiving per game with Carson Wentz.
The New Orleans Saints have scored just 23 points and gained only 429 total yards against the Ravens and Steelers the last two weeks, and they’ve played under the total in three straight games.
The Los Angeles Rams rank last in yards per play (4.7), 28th in points per play (.271), 31st in yards per game (282.7), and 29th in points per game, and they just lost Cooper Kupp to an ankle injury.
T.J. Watt returned to the lineup and gave the Pittsburgh Steelers’ defense an immediate shot of life, but they lost Minkah Fitzpatrick to an appendectomy for potentially another game.
The Atlanta Falcons have failed to cover in four straight games after being the only team to open the season with a perfect 6-0 ATS record.
The Las Vegas Raiders dropped to 0-6 in one-possession games after going 7-2 in those contests last season. They also lost their third consecutive game to a team with a losing record.
Jonathan Taylor erupted for 22/147/1 rushing, which was the first time he reached 100+ scrimmage yards or the end zone since he posted 175/1 scrimmage in the season opener.
The Detroit Lions are going for their first three-game winning streak since November 2017 after winning on the road for the first time since December 2020.
Justin Fields has totaled an absolutely ridiculous 50/467/5 rushing over his last four games and he has the most rushing yards by a quarterback in any five-game in the Super Bowl era with 555 rushing yards.
D’Onta Foreman carried the Panthers to a win with 31/130/1 rushing, which was the most carries in franchise history since Nick Goings had 36 totes in 2004.
Dameon Pierce remains one of the few bright spots for the Houston Texans, posting 100+ scrimmage yards in six of his last seven games after totaling 17/94 rushing and 2/28 receiving.
Futures Market
Super Bowl
The Buffalo Bills (+290 to +400) are still the favorites to win the Super Bowl despite dropping consecutive games thanks to three of the top-four frontrunners losing this week. The Philadelphia Eagles (+500 to +600) were the last unbeaten team to fall with the Washington Commanders (+25000 to +15000) doing the deed, which jumped them into serious NFC playoff contenders with four wins in their last five games. The Dallas Cowboys (+1100 to +900) actually saw their odds improve despite losing to the Green Bay Packers (+15000 to +7000). The Minnesota Vikings (+1800 to +1200) are starting to get some respect in the Super Bowl market after beating the Bills, but they’re still home underdogs to the Cowboys in Week 11.
The Miami Dolphins (+2500 to +1800) continue to be slightly undervalued despite their third consecutive 31+ point performance, which vaulted them into first place in the AFC East and second in the AFC. The Tennessee Titans (+4500 to +3000) and New York Giants (+8000 to +6000) are also still under the radar with each team picking up wins in their typically ugly fashion. The NFC West saw two of the biggest fallers with the Seattle Seahawks (+3500 to +5000) going from a mild contender back to more of a longshot after their loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2000 to +1800). Sportsbooks have also shoveled dirt on the defending Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams (+5000 to +15000) with Cooper Kupp going down with a major injury in their sixth loss of the season.
Awards
Patrick Mahomes (+200 to +125) remained the favorite for the MVP award, staying hot despite playing without JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman against the Jaguars — he’s ticked off four straight games with 330+ yards. Tua Tagovailoa (+800 to +350) continues to charge up the board with his torrid play over the last three weeks. He sat at +1400 odds before his frightening concussion in Week 4 on Thursday Night Football against the Bengals. and his odds plummeted to +8000 after his disappointing return to the lineup in Week 7 against the Steelers on Sunday Night Football. Jalen Hurts (+250 to +500) got dinged for Philly’s first loss of the season in which he threw his first INT since Week 4, and Josh Allen (+350 to +600) is down to the fourth favorite with his play slipping for three straight games with six INTs. It might be a good time to buy low on Allen with matchups looming against the Browns and Lions.
The battles for the Offensive Rookie of the Year and the Comeback Player of the Year awards are essentially down to two-player races. Both Kenneth Walker (+110 to -140) and Dameon Pierce (+190 to +175) saw their odds improve with the top rookie WRs doing little behind them. KWIII was shut down as a runner for the first time but he had his best performance as a receiver, while Pierce continues to dominate on the ground most weeks but is ultimately being held back by his team’s overall performance. Saquon Barkley (+140 to -115) and Geno Smith (-135 to -110) alternated favorite status for the CPOY for the third straight week with Barkley vaulting back to the top after carrying the Giants to their seventh victory of the season.
