The Super Bowl annually offers the most robust betting options of any sporting event during the calendar year. You can wager on anything from the opening coin toss to the color of the liquid tossed on the winning coach (at offshore sportsbooks, at least). I’m going to focus on the action on the field for this article to try to pick off a big win or two with smaller wagers. We nailed Cooper Kupp to win the MVP in last year’s big game at +700 odds for a nice payday.
Here are a few of the long-shot props I’ve personally bet for this year’s Super Bowl. To be clear, I’m not typically putting full unit bets on these props. I’m wagering a fraction of what I typically place on a normal spread or player prop bet. These wagers are more for fun but I do think these long-shot bets offer some value. Good luck and, hopefully, one of these long-shot props will hit to make Super Bowl LVII a little more fun.
Note: The odds used in this article are from when I initially placed these wagers in my Super Bowl Best Bets article. Be sure to shop around for the best odds. I’ll continue to add to the article as the Super Bowl approaches so be sure to check back before kickoff.
Travis Kelce (KC) Super Bowl LVII MVP (+1200, FanDuel)
I want to first acknowledge that it’s going to be difficult for any non-quarterback to win this award — Jalen Hurts (+110 odds) and Patrick Mahomes (+130) are the clear front-runners. If you followed this article last year, you’ll know that we pegged Cooper Kupp as a player to potentially break through to win the award at +700 odds, and he did it with 8/92/2 receiving in Los Angeles’ victory over the Bengals. Kelce has the best chance to break through on the Chiefs side this year after opening the 2022 postseason with 21/176/3 receiving on 25 targets. He’s now averaging an absolutely ridiculous 9.4 catches and 104.4 receiving yards per game with nine total TDs in his last eight playoff games. Kelce had 90+ receiving yards nine times, 8+ catches eight times, and multi-score performances three times in 19 games, which means he’s had plenty of ceiling performances so far this season. It doesn’t hurt to have a great narrative for awards that are voted on by writers and Kelce has a few of them working in his favor. He won the Internet in the AFC trophy presentation when he called the Cincinnati mayor a jabroni, and he’ll get plenty of press in the two weeks leading up to the game with his brother Jason Kelce playing center for the Eagles. He’ll also have the chance to cement himself as the all-time best receiver at the tight end position with a dominant Super Bowl performance. Risk .5 units to win six units. (Posted 1/30)
Haason Reddick (PHI) Super Bowl LVII MVP (+4000, DraftKings)
Philadelphia’s pass rush is led by Reddick, who has 3.5 postseason sacks to go along with 16 sacks in the regular season. PFF graded Reddick as a top-two defensive performer in both the Divisional and Conference Championship rounds, racking up eight hurries and 12 total pressures on just 38 pass-rush snaps against the Giants and 49ers. The Eagles’ defense and their three-headed backfield attack have carried the day in Philly’s first two victories in the postseason. Reddick could be in the mix to win the MVP if the Eagles follow that formula one last time in the Super Bowl, especially if he can create chaos around a hobbled Patrick Mahomes to limit Kansas City’s potent passing attack. Risk .2 units to win eight units. (Posted 1/30)
Kadarius Toney (KC) Super Bowl LVII MVP (+15000, FanDuel)
Toney may not play in the Super Bowl after suffering an ankle injury in the AFC Championship Game and never returning. He has two weeks to get ready for the biggest game of his life and his career has been littered with missed time for injuries. With that said, I still think this long-shot prop is worth a small investment just in case the talented Toney is able to play. He saw seven targets and a carry in the Divisional Round before just missing a touchdown on a deep shot in the Conference Championship Game. JuJu Smith-Schuster (knee) and Mecole Hardman (pelvis) left the title game early with their own injuries, which gives Toney a path to a bigger role if he's the healthiest player in the group. He also has the potential to flip the game with a special teams touchdown since he operates as Kansas City’s punt returner. Toney has demonstrated game-breaking ability when he’s managed to stay on the field in the first two years of his career, and HC Andy Reid would certainly like to feature him against the Eagles if he’s able to play. Risk .1 unit to win 15 units. (Posted 1/30)
Kenneth Gainwell (Phi) anytime touchdown (+425, DraftKings)
Our Graham Barfield pointed out Gainwell’s anytime touchdown prop in our Betting Discord, and I’m going to tail him on this juiced-up wager. Gainwell’s +425 odds to score a touchdown imply a 19.1% chance of scoring in Super Bowl LVII, which is far too low with his solid role and nose for the end zone in his first two seasons. He’s scored in 5-of-19 games this season — 26.1% of his contests — and he’s found paydirt in 12-of-36 career games to start his career — 33.3% of his contests. The Eagles are expected to score about three or four touchdowns with an implied team total sitting around 25-to-26 points, and the Chiefs have allowed touchdowns to Travis Etienne and Samaje Perine to open postseason play. Gainwell’s anytime touchdown prop should be more in the neighborhood of +300 odds (25% implied odds) so I’m jumping on this prop before it gets in line with most other sportsbooks. (Posted 1/31)
Philadelphia Eagles Successful 4th Down Conversion? YES (+102, FanDuel)
Note: Unfortunately, this line has moved to north of -200 odds and I’d no longer wager on it.
Philadelphia’s rugby-style sneak with Jalen Hurts is the NFL’s biggest cheat code in fourth-and-short situations. According to The Athletic, the Eagles converted 29-of-32 (90.6%) of their QB sneaks (2 yards or less to convert) in any situation in the regular season, which is better than any team this millennium. Unsurprisingly, the Eagles were the best fourth-down team in the league when you consider just how often they went for first downs and their ability to convert. Philadelphia finished fourth in fourth-down attempts (32), second in overall conversions (22), and fourth in conversion rate (68.8%) during the regular season. They didn’t have to attempt a fourth-down attempt against an uncompetitive Giants squad in the Divisional Round before going 3-for-3 against the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game. I’m expecting Nick Sirianni to take Dan Fouts’ mantra from “The Waterboy” to heart and go for first downs in every fourth-and-short situation against the Chiefs. (Posted 2/2)
Will there be overtime? YES (+1360, FanDuel)
Who doesn’t want to root for extra football on Super Bowl Sunday when we have to wait until next September for the next meaningful snaps? It’s even more fun to root for overtime when we can lay a little bit of money to win a lot of money on a slightly plus EV bet. The odds imply a 6.85% chance of overtime in Super Bowl LVII. The 2022 season saw 7.04% of its games (20 of 284) go to extra time and 7.55% of games in 2021-22 (43 of 569) went to OT. Super Bowl LVII’s 1.5-point spread indicates a potentially close game between the Chiefs and Eagles, and it’s notable that the Chiefs have already played in two overtime games in 19 opportunities. Risk .5 units to win 6.8 units. Bet to +1200. At the bottom under “Popular”. (Posted 2/3)
Player with the Longest Reception: Quez Watkins (+2800, DraftKings)
Fastest Ball Carrier: Quez Watkins (+1400, DraftKings)
“Player with the Longest Reception” can be found in “Super Bowl Specials” then in “Rec Props”. Risk .3 units to win 8.4 units.
“Fastest Ball Carrier” can be found in “Super Bowl Specials”. Risk .3 units to win 4.2 units.
Watkins could easily be shut out in this contest like he was in Philly’s first two postseason routes of the 49ers and Giants, but I’m going for Watkins’ ceiling potential as a deep threat on these long-shot props. The Eagles should be much more aggressive through the air in the Super Bowl, and Jalen Hurts had the third most touchdowns (11) on pass attempts over 20+ air yards in the regular season. Watkins accounted for three of those long scores — tied for the ninth-most in the NFL — on 11 deep targets. It doesn’t hurt that slot CB L’Jarius Sneed allowed the NFL’s most targets (105) and receptions (72) to give Watkins a potential extra opportunity or two at a big play. His +2800 odds suggest just a 3.5% chance of owning the longest reception in the Super Bowl, but he had the longest reception in 10.5% of his games (2 of 19) this season. I’m also going to correlate a potential long TD with him to be the fastest ball carrier. He owns two 50+ yard receptions in a pair of Monday Night Football contests this season, including a 53-yard score in Week 2 when he reached 20.41 mph. Watkins also had the 14th fastest time overall (21.62 mph) in the 2021 regular season. Bet down to +2400 for longest reception and +1200 for fastest ball carrier. (Posted 2/9)
Player to make first reception (KC): Kadarius Toney (+700, MGM)
Player to make first reception (full game): Kadarius Toney (+1600, MGM)
Under “Player Specials”. Risk one unit to win seven units and risk .5 units to win eight units.
We’re already rooting for a big game from Toney with our long-shot MVP bet at +15000 odds, and he’s getting a lot of positive publicity with the game quickly approaching. HC Andy Reid noted that Toney was “running around like crazy” in Wednesday’s practice despite his limited practice tag. NFL Network’s James Palmer was also told that Toney has a big role in Kansas City’s offensive gameplan for Super Bowl LVII, specifically as an after-the-catch threat. Kadarius has made it clear that he’s going to play despite suffering an ankle injury in the AFC Championship Game, and the Chiefs could start the game with a high-percentage pass to him to boost his confidence in his ankle immediately. Bet down to +600 for KC and +1200 for Full Game (Posted 2/9)
