2022 NFL Draft Props: Team Selection

betting

We hope you enjoy this FREE article preview! In order to access our other articles and content, including livestreams, projections and rankings, stat analysis and more, be sure to sign up today. We are here to help you #ScoreMore Fantasy Points!

2022 NFL Draft Props: Team Selection

If you’re anything like me, you’ve been itching for some betting opportunities on NFL events since Super Bowl LVI concluded with the Rams beating the Bengals more than two months ago. The NFL Draft is quickly approaching on April 28-30, which is our one chance to bet on an actual NFL event before preseason action gets going in August.

Unfortunately, most states, including my home state of Pennsylvania, don’t allow betting on the draft since it’s not an actual sporting competition. I may be making a trip to states like New Jersey or West Virginia, which allow wagers on NFL Draft props. Hopefully, you live in or near one of the states that are allowed to offer betting lines on this year’s draft or you have access to an off-shore account.

Since I don’t have access to draft lines in Pennsylvania, I’ll be using lines that are being offered in New Jersey and at off-shore sportsbooks for the purposes of this article. If you can, make sure to shop around for the best lines and odds if possible. You’re going to see more volatility between sportsbooks with an event like the draft than you’ll see on game lines during the season.

I plan on updating these NFL Draft Prop articles and my Best Bets multiple times before the end of April so check back throughout the month.

Note: We’re thrilled to offer Greg Cosell’s rookie profiles once again as part of our 2022 NFL Prospect Guide. I’ve included a small piece of his analysis for each player listed below. Be sure to subscribe to our guide to get his complete analysis for over 100+ players.

Article updates since initial April 22 posting

  • New England Patriots Draft Prop to Consider and Best Bet added on April 27.

  • Buffalo Bills Draft Prop to Consider updated and Best Bet added on April 25.

Team Selections

Washington Commanders

Latest Mock Drafts

  • Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (March 22): Kyle Hamilton, S (11th overall)

  • Peter Schrager, NFL Network (April 19): Garrett Wilson, WR (11th overall)

  • Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 15): Kyle Hamilton, S (11th overall)

  • Todd McShay, ESPN (April 5): Chris Olave, WR (11th overall)

Draft Props to Consider

Position of Washington Commanders First Drafted Player: Safety (+650, FanDuel, placed April 21) and Position of Washington Commanders First Drafted Player: Defense (+132, Unibet, placed April 21) — Washington’s +650 odds imply a 13.3% chance that the Commanders select a safety with their first pick in the first round. At Grinding the Mocks, the Commanders have been mocked safety Kyle Hamilton 22.0% of the time in expert drafts since March, which is tied with Drake London for the most. Hamilton has been consistently falling outside the top-10 pick since the first week of April and his draft position prop now sits at 10.5 or 11.5 at most sportsbooks. Defensive-minded HC Ron Rivera could jump at the chance to land Hamilton with the 11th overall pick. He has the length (6’4”, 220 pounds) and the versatility to cover tight ends and to defend the deep half of the field, and the Commanders need the help after allowing the most passing touchdowns (34) and the fourth-most passing yards per game (254.9) in 2021.

Minnesota Vikings

Latest Mock Drafts

  • Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (March 22): Jordan Davis, DT (12th overall)
  • Peter Schrager, NFL Network (April 19): Jermaine Johnson, EDGE (12th overall)
  • Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 15): Trent McDuffie, CB (12th overall)
  • Todd McShay, ESPN (April 5): Derek Stingley, CB (12th overall)

Draft Props to Consider

Position of Minnesota Vikings First Drafted Player: Defensive Back (+115, Caesars) — Minnesota’s +115 odds imply a 46.5% chance that the Vikings select a defensive back with their first pick in the first round. At Grinding the Mocks, the Vikings have been mocked a cornerback 54.0% of the time in expert drafts since March. Minnesota could be in a prime position to address one of their biggest weaknesses at cornerback if Derek Stingley falls to them, or they could settle for Trent McDuffie in this spot. The Vikings could also be in play for Kyle Hamilton if the Commanders pass on him for a wide receiver with the 11th overall pick. Minnesota has only a combined 23 starts under contract at cornerback for 2023 and beyond. The new front office also shouldn’t have any scar tissue from the previous regime’s failed first-round picks in CBs Jeff Gladney and Mike Hughes in the last four years.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Latest Mock Drafts

  • Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (March 22): Derek Stingley, CB (20th overall)
  • Peter Schrager, NFL Network (April 19): Malik Willis, QB (20th overall)
  • Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 15): Desmond Ridder, QB (20th overall)
  • Todd McShay, ESPN (April 5): Malik Willis, QB (20th overall)

Draft Props to Consider

Position of Pittsburgh Steelers first drafted player: Quarterback (+170, Unibet, placed April 21) — Pittsburgh’s +170 odds imply a 37.0% chance that the Steelers select a quarterback with their first pick in the first round. At Grinding the Mocks, the Steelers have been mocked a quarterback a staggering 78.0% of the time in expert drafts since March. HC Mike Tomlin and the Steelers’ front office haven’t been shy about their infatuation with the toolsy Malik Willis. Pittsburgh brought in Mitch Trubisky this off-season so they could bring Willis along at his own pace if they drafted him. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Steelers move up from 20th overall if Willis drifts into the double-digit picks much like how the Bears moved up from No. 20 to No. 11 last year to select Justin Fields. Pittsburgh’s front office has spent a lot of time evaluating the entire class, and Desmond Ridder and Kenny Pickett are certainly in play if Willis is off the board before the Steelers can pounce on him. Outgoing GM Kevin Colbert wants to leave the organization with a potential franchise quarterback before he officially cleans out his desk.

New England Patriots

Latest Mock Drafts

  • Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (March 22): Jameson Williams, WR (21st overall)
  • Peter Schrager, NFL Network (April 19): Trent McDuffie, CB (21st overall)
  • Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 15): Dax Hill, S (21st overall)
  • Todd McShay, ESPN (April 5): Nakobe Dean, LB (21st overall)

Draft Props to Consider

Position of New England Patriots First Drafted Player: Linebacker (+430, FanDuel, placed April 27) — New England’s +430 odds imply a 18.9% chance that the Patriots select a linebacker with their first pick in the first round. At Grinding the Mocks, the Patriots have been mocked a linebacker 30.0% of the time in expert drafts since March, which is behind only cornerback at 34.0%. Devin Lloyd has been the most popular selection for the Patriots in that spot at 26.0%, but ESPN’s Matt Miller threw out another linebacker who the Patriots could be targeting. He tweeted that Quay Walker won’t get past New England in the top-25 picks, which sent his draft position skyrocketing from 38.5 to 20.5. Walker’s teammate, Nakobe Dean, is also in the mix for the Patriots so we could have multiple outs if New England is serious about upgrading the middle of its defense.

Buffalo Bills

Latest Mock Drafts

  • Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (March 22): Breece Hall, RB (25th overall)
  • Peter Schrager, NFL Network (April 19): Breece Hall, RB (25th overall)
  • Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 15): Treylon Burks, WR (25th overall)
  • Todd McShay, ESPN (April 5): Andrew Booth, CB (25th overall)

Draft Props to Consider

Position of Buffalo Bills First Drafted Player: Cornerback (+250, FanDuel, placed April 21) and Position of Buffalo Bills First Drafted Player: Defense (+100, FOXBet, placed April 25) — Buffalo’s +250 odds imply a 28.6% chance that the Bills select a cornerback with their first pick in the first round. At Grinding the Mocks, the Bills have been mocked a cornerback 35.2% of the time in expert drafts since March, well ahead of WR (19.3%) and DT (13.1%). There’s been some chatter that the Bills could be just one player away from being a complete team with Breece Hall starting to pop up in some recent Bills’ mock drafts. That would be a gross miscalculation with more pressing needs at cornerback and along their offensive line.

Tre’Davious White is coming back from an ACL injury and there’s no guarantee that he returns to his elite form, and the Bills also lost #2 CB Levi Wallace left for Pittsburgh in free agency. The Chiefs thought they were just one player away from a complete roster when they selected Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the late first round in 2020. That selection has been a disaster for the Chiefs and their roster has quickly disintegrated over the last two seasons. GM Brandon Beane has pulled all of the right strings and there’s no doubt he’s watched from afar what’s become of the Chiefs’ roster since they went with a luxury pick in the 2020 first round. Buffalo should build up their secondary in a conference that’s loaded with so many elite passing games, and there are plenty of strong options like Kyler Gordon, Andrew Booth, and Kaiir Elam who should be available. I added the Bills to draft a defensive player at +100 on April 25 just in case they address another defensive need. Safety Daxton Hill appears to be on Buffalo’s radar with Jordan Poyer heading for free agency in 2023, and both Poyer and Micah Hyde will each be 31 years old this season.

Tennessee Titans

Latest Mock Drafts

  • Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (March 22): Tyler Smith, OT (26th overall)
  • Peter Schrager, NFL Network (April 19): Kenyon Green, OG (26th overall)
  • Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 15): Kenyon Green, OG (26th overall)
  • Todd McShay, ESPN (April 5): Christian Watson, WR (26th overall)

Draft Props to Consider

Position of Tennessee Titans First Drafted Player: Offensive Line (+210, FanDuel, placed April 21) — Tennessee’s +210 odds imply a 32.3% chance that the Titans select an offensive lineman with their first pick in the first round. At Grinding the Mocks, the Titans have been mocked a cornerback 38.6% of the time in expert drafts since March, well ahead of WR (28.6%) and LB (12.2%). There’s been some buzz that the Titans could draft a quarterback in the first round after Ryan Tannehill’s down 2021 campaign with the franchise able to get out of his contract starting in 2023. However, this team finished with home-field advantage last season and they’ll once again play in potentially the league’s worst division in 2022.

The Titans would be much better served to use their first pick to improve their chances to win in 2022, and they need immediate help at left guard and/or right tackle. I have a hard time believing the Titans will make a luxury pick in a weak quarterback class, which would make it three straight seasons when they’d get nothing out of a first-round pick after selecting Caleb Farley and Isaiah Wilson the last two years. Derrick Henry’s window as a game-changing player is starting to close and therefore Tennessee’s window as an AFC contender is beginning to close. It’s worth noting that Mike Vrabel’s son, Tyler Vrabel, lived with top OG prospect Zion Johnson for the last two years at Boston College. The Titans would sprint to the commissioner to select Zion if he falls to them at No. 26.

Cincinnati Bengals

Latest Mock Drafts

  • Daniel Jeremiah, NFL Network (March 22): Tyler Linderbaum, C (31st overall)
  • Peter Schrager, NFL Network (April 19): Tyler Smith, OT (31st overall)
  • Dane Brugler, The Athletic (April 15): Tyler Linderbaum, C (31st overall)
  • Todd McShay, ESPN (April 5): Tyler Linderbaum, C (31st overall)

Draft Props to Consider

Position of Cincinnati Bengals First Drafted Player: Offensive Line (+170, Unibet, placed April 21) — Cincinnati’s +170 odds imply a 37.0% chance that the Bengals select an offensive lineman with their first pick in the first round. At Grinding the Mocks, the Bengals have been mocked an offensive lineman 57.2% of the time in expert drafts since March, well ahead of CB (22.4%) and DT (12.2%). The Bengals have been on a mission to improve their offensive line this off-season after franchise QB Joe Burrow absorbed an unacceptable 70 sacks in 21 games last season. They’ve revamped the majority of their offensive line by signing OT La’el Collins, OG Alex Cappa, and OG Ted Karras, and they’ll look to finish the job by landing an offensive lineman at the end of the first round. The Bengals went from being extremely undermanned along their offensive line last season to potentially having plenty of capable bodies if they select an offensive lineman with their first pick. Still, Burrow’s long-term health has been the team’s top priority all off-season and no team can ever have too many capable O-linemen with injuries always around the corner. Iowa center Tyler Linderbaum has been slipping in most recent mocks and he’d be a perfect match with the Bengals at the 31st pick.

Brolley’s Best Bets

  • Position of New England Patriots First Drafted Player: Linebacker (+430, FanDuel, placed April 27). Risk one unit to win 4.3 units

  • Position of Buffalo Bills First Drafted Player: Defense (+100, FOXBet, placed on April 25). Risk one unit to win one unit.

  • Position of Minnesota Vikings First Drafted Player: Defensive Back (+115, Caesars, placed on April 22). Risk one unit to win 1.15 units.

  • Position of Washington Commanders First Drafted Player: Safety (+650, FanDuel, placed on April 21). Risk one unit to win 6.5 units.

  • Position of Washington Commanders First Drafted Player: Defense (+132, Unibet, placed on April 21). Risk one unit to win 1.32 units.

  • Position of Pittsburgh Steelers first drafted player: Quarterback (+170, Unibet, placed on April 21). Risk one unit to win 1.7 units.

  • Position of Buffalo Bills First Drafted Player: Cornerback (+250, FanDuel, placed on April 21). Risk one unit to win 2.5 units.

  • Position of Tennessee Titans First Drafted Player: Offensive Line (+210, FanDuel, placed on April 21). Risk one unit to win 2.1 units.

  • Position of Cincinnati Bengals First Drafted Player: Offensive Line (+170, Unibet, placed on April 21). Risk one unit to win 1.7 units.

Tom is a Senior Writer at Fantasy Points who specializes in fantasy and betting analysis. He’ll be helping you to navigate the waiver wire and manage your fantasy teams while also keeping our betting content robust all year long, especially during the season. Tom's Best Bets against the spread won at 61.5% clip in 2019 and he was a perfect 8-0 on his Best Bets for season win totals in 2020.

Recent Articles