Fantasy Points Data: Week 11 Chart Porn

Charting NFL football and trying to quantify a game that is in many ways unquantifiable is one of the edges that fantasy football players are still trying to grasp.

It’s also not a unique endeavor. Other companies do it. NFL teams do it.

But with Fantasy Points Data — a project that we’ve had in the works for the better part of a year — we wanted to answer one big question: what if we tailored all of the data our team has gathered (hand-charted from our team of experts) directly to the fantasy player?

Based on years of playing season-long fantasy, dynasty, and DFS — and using all the charted data out there to build models and try to gain an advantage in a game where the margins are shrinking — we believe we’ve found where we can do things better. And we have tools in development that we think fantasy players will go absolutely crazy for. We believe, in all humility, we’re going to do this better than anyone else, and it will unequivocally blow your mind.

We’re excited to show you those tools when they’re tested, re-tested, and tested again, but what we can tell you is that the tools will be efficient, clean, and simplistic. You won’t need to be a data scientist to decipher them. And getting those tools to a place where an Average Joe (Dolan) can look at them and say “this makes sense” has been our main goal. Best of all, these tools will be available free of charge for the remainder of the 2022 season.

This is not the finished product, but we wanted to give you a sneak peek of what we’ve been working on behind the scenes for months. These charts, stats, and tools will all eventually be native to Fantasy Points with a user-friendly interface. We’re sure you’ll love them.

Schedule-adjusted FPG Allowed (Team Weaknesses)

Quick Analysis

• No QB has a better matchup this week than Russell Wilson. The Raiders have allowed a league-high +6.9 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing QBs. Wilson’s slot WR (either Kendall Hinton or the questionable Jerry Jeudy) also draws a best-possible matchup, with Las Vegas allowing +6.0 schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing slot WRs – 30% worse than the next-closest team.

• Daniel Jones draws easily the best rushing matchup for any QB, with Detroit allowing a league-high +4.2 schedule-adjusted rushing FPG to opposing QBs. Jones currently ranks 4th among all QBs in rushing YPG (43.0), ahead of Kyler Murray (39.9) and Jalen Hurts (39.3).

• Tyler Higbee is likely the biggest beneficiary of Cooper Kupp’s injury. He’s averaged 15.5 FPG (TE2) in the four games Kupp has earned less than 8 targets since the start of 2021. Unfortunately, he draws the toughest matchup for TEs by schedule-adjusted FPG allowed (-5.2).

• Cleveland has also been weak against opposing outside WRs, ranking as the 6th-softest schedule-adjusted matchup (+4.9). But they are much tougher against the slot, allowing -3.7 schedule-adjusted FPG (3rd-best). That should funnel production away from Isaiah McKenzie and towards Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs.

• Many are (rightfully) excited about James Conner after he played 96% of the team’s snaps in Week 10, but he draws a San Francisco defense that’s allowed -3.4 schedule-adjusted rushing FPG (2nd-best) to opposing RBs this season.

Schedule-Adjusted FPG Allowed (Basic)

WR Schedule-Adjusted FPG Allowed

Quick Analysis

• San Francisco has been the toughest defense against WRs lined up to their QB’s left, allowing a league-best -5.1 schedule-adjusted FPG. This is bad news for DeAndre Hopkins, who has played 67% of his snaps this season from that alignment.

• The 49ers are also one of the league’s top slot WR-funnel defenses, allowing the 8th-fewest schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing outside WRs (-3.1) but the 3rd-most to opposing slot WRs (+3.7). Obviously, that’s great news for Rondale Moore who ranks 6th in targets per game (10.3) and 10th in FPG (18.9) over the last three weeks.

• The Jets are the toughest matchup for opposing outside WRs, surrendering a league-best -6.3 schedule-adjusted FPG this season. But, they rank as a perfectly neutral matchup for opposing slot WRs, suggesting target volume will be funneled to Jakobi Meyers this week.

• Michael Gallup has aligned to his QB’s left on 46% of his routes this season, and he draws the most-favorable matchup for any left WR this week, up against a Vikings allowing +7.0 schedule-adjusted FPG to left WRs.

• When Tee Higgins lines up outside, he lines up on the right side of the field 55% of the time. That’s very good news, considering Atlanta is the top matchup for opposing right outside WRs (+4.1 schedule-adjusted FPG allowed).

FPG Allowed to WR1s / WR2s

Quick Analysis

• Dallas has done a terrific job of shutting down opposing WR1s, allowing just 12.2 DraftKings FPG (3rd-best). But, they’ve allowed the most DraftKings FPG (14.2) to opposing WR2s. Perhaps this is the spot to play Adam Thielen?

• Josh Palmer (or perhaps Keenan Allen if healthy) draws the top WR1 matchup of the week, up against a Chiefs defense allowing a league-high 22.1 DraftKings FPG to opposing WR1s.

• Both Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd draw top-6 matchups by DraftKings FPG allowed to (respectively) opposing WR1s and WR2s. Expect Cincinnati to lean on their passing game against a truly disastrous coverage unit.

• Davante Adams draws easily the worst matchup for opposing WR1s, with Denver allowing just 8.5 DraftKings FPG – 27% less than the 2nd-toughest defense against WR1s. The last time these teams played (Week 4), Patrick Surtain held Adams to just 54 yards on 9 targets, but Adams still finished the day with 9 catches for 101 total yards.

• Darnell Mooney draws a favorable matchup this week. The Falcons have given up the 3rd-most DraftKings FPG to opposing WR1s, as well as the 4th-most schedule-adjusted FPG to opposing slot WRs (+3.3), which is where he runs 60% of his routes.

• With Jaire Alexander no longer shadowing, the Packers are giving up the 5th-most DraftKings FPG (19.2) to opposing WR1s. But they’ve allowed the 2nd-fewest DraftKings FPG (5.9) to opposing WR2s. We could argue that there may be a WR2 to target in this offense, but Tennessee WRs have scored just three TDs this season, so it’s tough to make an upside case for any pass catcher.

Deep Passing YPG Allowed

Quick Analysis

• No team has allowed more deep passing YPG (81.6), deep FPG (10.6) or deep receptions (19) than the Tennessee Titans. This is a truly elite matchup for Christian Watson, who has scored 45% of his fantasy points on throws of 15 or more yards this season. It’s also a good sign for Allen Lazard, who averages 1.8 deep targets per game (13th-most among all WRs).

• Washington has been the 2nd-most vulnerable defense to deep passing this season (64.3 deep passing YPG allowed), setting up a strong matchup for Brandin Cooks, who easily leads the Texans in deep targets per game (1.6).

• Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis both rank top-7 among WRs in deep targets per game, and they have a fantastic matchup against a Cleveland defense that is giving up the 3rd-most deep YPG (63.2) and the 2nd-most deep FPG (8.5).

• Denver has also shut down deep throws this season, allowing just 21.0 YPG. Another bad sign for Davante Adams, who has averaged the 5th-most deep targets per game (2.2) of any WR.

QB FPG Allowed

Quick Analysis

• There isn’t a better matchup for opposing QBs than the Detroit Lions, who have allowed the most total FPG (23.4) and the most rushing FPG (6.8) to opposing QBs this season. This is undoubtedly a great spot for Daniel Jones.

• The Titans have been the 2nd-worst team against QBs by passing FPG allowed (17.9), setting up an elite matchup for Aaron Rodgers.

• That said, no team has allowed more passing FPG this season than KC (18.9), meaning Justin Herbert has the top passing matchup of the week in primetime.

• By both passing fantasy points allowed per pass attempt (0.515) and passer rating allowed (107.0), the Raiders are the most efficient matchup for opposing QBs. Is this the week we see a ceiling game from Russell Wilson?

RB FPG Allowed

Quick Analysis

• There isn’t a better matchup for workhorse RBs than Houston, as the Texans are allowing a league-high 24.3 rushing FPG to opposing RBs – 22% more than the 2nd-worst team. So, this is a great spot for both Brian Robinson (26 carries last week) and Antonio Gibson (14 carries last week).

• The Browns are the 2nd-best matchup for RBs by total FPG allowed (30.8) and the 3rd-best matchup by YPC allowed (5.2). This is a great matchup for Devin Singletary.

• Kansas City is the top matchup for RBs by receiving FPG allowed (14.0), setting up the perfect matchup for Austin Ekeler, who is averaging 9.0 targets per game.

• I wouldn’t expect much out of James Robinson or Michael Carter this week, with New England allowing the fewest total FPG (17.4) to opposing RBs this season.

TE FPG Allowed

Quick Analysis

• Denver only ranks 12th-worst in FPG allowed to opposing TEs (12.5), but 27.4% of their total receiving fantasy production has gone to TEs (4th-most). So, we would consider them to be a top “TE funnel” defense – setting up a strong matchup for Foster Moreau.

• The Cardinals are easily the top matchup for opposing TEs, allowing 19.5 FPG (+18% more than the next-closest team). George Kittle profiles as an underrated captain play on the MNF showdown slate.

• If we exclude TDs (which are highly volatile and hard to predict), then Tennessee is actually the 5th-best matchup for opposing TEs, allowing 11.5 FPG excluding TDs. Robert Tonyan profiles as an underrated DFS option on TNF, given most will have their sights set on Green Bay WRs against an abysmal pass defense.

Fantasy Points Over Expectation (XFP)

Quick Analysis

• The Cardinals are the least efficient defense against RBs through the air, giving up a league-high 119% receiving fantasy points over expectation (XFP) to opposing RBs. Obviously, Christian McCaffrey could go nuclear in this matchup.

• The Vikings are the top matchup for opposing outside WRs by fantasy points over expectation (+125%), suggesting a great matchup for Michael Gallup and Noah Brown.

• Detroit is the 4th-best matchup for opposing slot WRs by fantasy points over expectation (+130%). This would be an ideal spot for Wan’Dale Robinson if he’s healthy enough to play.

• Nico Collins has played 55% of his snaps from the left outside WR alignment, and he draws the top matchup for LWRs by fantasy points over expectation (+138%), against the Washington Commanders.

• The Colts are the 4th-least efficient matchup for opposing TEs by fantasy points over expectation – setting up a strong matchup for Dallas Goedert’s replacement (Jack Stoll). On the season, Stoll has earned 79% of all non-Goedert TE XFP for the Eagles.

OL vs. DL (Rushing / Passing)

Quick Analysis

• Based on team yards before contact per attempt vs. opponent yards before contact per attempt allowed, Jamaal Williams and D’Andre Swift have the best overall rushing projection of Week 11.

• Isaiah Pacheco earned 89% of KC’s backfield carries in Week 10, and he has the 3rd-best projected rushing matchup in Week 11 against a terrible Chargers run defense.

• Joe Burrow and the Bengals passing attack have the top matchup of the week, based on the average pressure rate over expectation between them and the Steelers.

• Tennessee, Minnesota, Indianapolis, and Houston project to be the passing games most hampered by pressure this week.

Pass Rate Over Expectation

Quick Analysis

• What version of the Bengals do we get in Week 11? Joe Burrow has absolutely smashed when Cincy’s PROE is over 3.5%, but he’s been rather mediocre in all other games. With the Steelers ranking as the 6th-best pass funnel by PROE allowed (+3.8%), this certainly suggests another ceiling game may be headed Burrow’s way in Week 11.

• Arizona and Tennessee have been the top pass funnels this season by PROE allowed. Expect both San Francisco and Green Bay to lean more pass-heavy than normal in their respective prime-time games.

• Dallas and Chicago have both forced their opponents to run the ball 5.5% more than expected, setting up run-centric gameplans for both Minnesota and Atlanta.

Graham Barfield’s Pace of Play Model

Quick Analysis

• It shouldn’t be surprising to see LAC vs. KC as the top pace-of-play game of the week, with a rating that’s more than twice that of the 2nd-best pace of play matchup.

• I’m sure it’s surprising to see ATL vs. CHI – the game with the 2nd-highest total (49.0) of the week – rank so poorly in pace of play. This simply comes down to how slow and run-heavy both of these teams are. ATL and CHI are both bottom-2 in PROE, and bottom-6 in plays per game.

Dank Stats

• Derrick Henry is rounding into late-season form. In Weeks 1 through 6, Henry averaged 3.9 YPC with just a 4.8% explosive play percentage. In Weeks 7 through 10, Henry has rushed for 5.3 YPC with a 7.1% explosive play percentage. And over that time span, Henry has faced the 2nd-best (IND) and 13th-best (KC) rushing defenses (by YPC allowed).

• Kirk Cousins’ aDOT has jumped from 5.8 to 8.2 over the last four weeks of the season. His “deep throw rate” has increased from 6.1% to 8.7%, and Justin Jefferson’s target share has jumped from 29.3% to 30.8%.

• Josh Allen has had a rough go his last 3 games; he is tied for the league-high in interceptions since Week 7, he has the NFL’s lowest passer rating at 67.2 from Week 7-10, and his off-target throw percentage has jumped from 13.6% in Weeks 1-6 to 21.6% in Weeks 7-10.

• Amon Ra St. Brown left Week 6 early, and was on the injury report in Weeks 7 and 8. In weeks 1-5, St. Brown earned a 74% route share and 27.9% target share. Since being off the injury report, St. Brown’s route share has jumped to 94.6% with a 40.8% target share.

• Since the Christian McCaffrey trade, Deebo Samuel’s target share has dropped from 27% to 17%, and his route share has fallen from 87% to 79%. Brandon Aiyuk, meanwhile, has seen his target share jump from 21% to 24%.